Three equally likely possibilitiesThree equally likely possibilities depending upon future earning growths or declines only time will tell.
PYPLD trade ideas
PYPL. great earnings. now to rally?PEG - PYPL Trade Idea
Setup: PEG Continuation
Key Criteria:
- Market cap: $10 billion+
- High Relative Volume on Close (2Rvol+)
- Ideally, the price has hit a key daily/weekly support or resistance zone and has not gapped into a range (mid of a range).
- Stock is "in play" or on the verge of forming a new trend.
Trade Details:
- Position: Long
- Entry: $64.27
- Stop: $62.43
- Risk: 0.75% of account equity
- Order Type: Sell Stop Limit Order
- Risk per share: $1.84
Targets:
- $68.00 (2R) – This is the closest large level.
- $70.66 (3.5R) – This level is the pivot high of the breakout.
Exit Techniques:
- Scale 33% of original position size at 2R.
- Scale 33% of original position size at 3.5R.
- Exit the remaining 34% of original position size using the new 3-day low after new high method (ask if unsure).
Reasoning:
- PayPal (PYPL) is potentially at a pivotal breakout point from the trading range it has been in since mid-April 2023. The top of this range is around $70, with a bottom between $50 and $55. Currently, PYPL is pushing above a weekly bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a significant volume point of control, which might indicate the start of a breakout.
- This setup is compelling due to PayPal’s recent earnings report, which shows a turnaround from -$350 million in free cash flow (FCF) to $1.4 billion, along with increased revenue, operating income, and payout volume—all while maintaining a static account base. This positive shift in fundamentals may not be fully reflected in the current price, providing an opportunity for the stock to gain momentum and move towards the $70 level.
Stop Loss:
- The stop loss will be updated after the first profit target (2R) is hit and shares are scaled out.
Additional Notes:
- Set orders to automatically scale out shares. If the take profit (TP) is hit and you are still holding the full position size, please manage your own risk accordingly.
- Any questions, please feel free to ask. I am here to support and help you understand how to be a consistent trader.
Position Sizing:
- I will be buying 203 shares, costing me $13,077.52.
- Risk on this trade is $374.40, aligning with 0.75% of equity (accounting for losses on all current trades).
PayPal’s Stellar Q2 Report: Revenue & Earnings Beat ExpectationsPayPal Holdings (PYPL) has reported impressive second-quarter results, with earnings and revenue surpassing analyst expectations. The digital payments giant’s robust performance has led to a positive market response, with its stock climbing over 7% following the announcement. Here’s an in-depth look at PayPal’s Q2 achievements, strategic moves, and future prospects under the leadership of new CEO Alex Chriss.
Q2 Financial Highlights
- Earnings and Revenue: Under new accounting rules, PayPal’s earnings for Q2 rose 36% to $1.19 per share on an adjusted basis. Revenue increased by 8% to $7.9 billion, exceeding the FactSet consensus of 98 cents per share on $7.82 billion in revenue. This marks a significant turnaround for the company, which had seen its stock fall by 4% in early 2024.
- Transaction Gross Profit: The transaction gross profit grew 6.5% to $3.2 billion, beating analyst estimates by 1%.
- Total Payment Volume (TPV): The total payment volume processed from merchant customers increased by 11% to $416.8 billion, just shy of the $417.5 billion analysts had projected.
Strategic Moves and Leadership Changes
New CEO Alex Chriss has been proactive in steering PayPal towards sustainable growth amidst rising competition from tech giants like Apple and Google. Despite fears of market share erosion, PayPal’s branded checkout business has outperformed, easing competition worries.
- Maintaining Market Share: Chriss highlighted that PayPal has maintained its market share in desktop/web checkouts, which constitute 40-50% of all checkouts, over the past four years despite the competitive landscape.
- Profit Forecast Upgrade: For the second time this year, PayPal has raised its forecast for full-year adjusted profit, now expecting a "low to mid-teens percentage" increase in 2024, up from the "mid-to-high single-digit" growth forecasted in April.
Key Performance Metrics
PayPal’s Q2 results have demonstrated the effectiveness of its strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies:
- Adjusted Earnings Per Share: The company’s adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.19, up from 87 cents in the same period last year.
- Revenue Growth: Revenue climbed 9% to $7.89 billion on a foreign exchange-neutral basis.
- Transaction Margin Dollars: Transaction margin dollars surged by 8% to $3.61 billion, far exceeding expectations of a nearly 1% gain.
- Operating Margins: Adjusted operating margins expanded by 231 basis points to 18.5%, driven by cost-cutting measures and restructuring efforts.
Branded Checkout and Key Business Segments
PayPal’s branded checkout, Braintree, and Venmo have all contributed to the highest transaction margin dollars growth rate since 2021. CFO Jamie Miller emphasized that the company is focusing on high-quality profitable growth, which involves prioritizing higher-margin transactions over sheer volume.
- Branded Checkout Growth: Despite investor concerns, branded checkout grew by approximately 6% in the second quarter.
- Braintree and Venmo: Both platforms have seen significant improvements in profitability and user growth. Venmo, in particular, continues to be a major growth driver.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, PayPal is betting on the resilience of American consumer spending, especially during key shopping seasons such as back-to-school and the holidays. The company’s strategic focus on maintaining market share, enhancing profitability, and driving user growth is expected to yield positive results.
- Profitability Focus: PayPal’s plan to prioritize high-quality, profitable growth is evident from its strategic moves and financial performance in Q2.
- Market Confidence: The market’s positive response to PayPal’s Q2 earnings report underscores confidence in the company’s ability to navigate competitive pressures and drive long-term growth.
Conclusion
PayPal’s impressive Q2 performance, underpinned by strong earnings, revenue growth, and strategic leadership, has set a positive tone for the rest of 2024. With CEO Alex Chriss at the helm, the company is well-positioned to leverage its strengths, navigate market challenges, and continue delivering value to its shareholders.
As PayPal ( NASDAQ:PYPL ) continues to adapt and innovate in the dynamic digital payments landscape, its focus on high-quality growth and operational efficiency will be crucial in sustaining its competitive edge and achieving long-term success.
PainPal Trade the range until it breaks. We appear to be bouncing endlessly between $50-70. A nice retrace to the golden pocket, a good reaction and hence trade activated. Tight stop loss just in case the trade fails.
This is not financial advice, if you don’t like the idea then find something better to do with your life instead of trolling the comments
The bottom may now have been reached for this hard-tested stock.Technical Analysis of PayPal Holdings Inc. (ticker on Nasdaq: PYPL)
PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) has shown a very weak development in recent years, but now several positive technical signals have been triggered for this hard-tested stock.
The share has broken out of a large falling wedge formation (cf. chart), and with that triggered positive technical signals for the further development going forward in the short and medium term.
Furthermore, the 50-day moving average has broken above the 200-day moving average, the so-called 'Golden Cross signal', which indicates that both the short-term and medium-term trend for the stock has now turned from negative to positive.
The share is also in the process of breaking above both the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, thereby providing further positive technical signals for further development going forward.
A large inverse head and shoulders formation has also been established for the stock, and where a break above a now important technical resistance level around USD 68.00 will trigger a strong technical buy signal for PayPal stock.
Then a further rise to around USD 120.00 will be signaled for the share in 3-6 months' time.
The PayPal share is currently around USD 61.80, and the share thus has the potential to double in the next 3-6 months.
What could possibly change the now positive technical picture for the PayPal share would be if it were to break below a now important technical support level for the share around USD 56.00.
With a share price today around USD 62.00, and with a stop-loss if it breaks below USD 56.00, and with a potential for the share in the 3-6 month term up to USD 120.00.
So the stock looks here today like a very interesting investment at today's price level, and with a very good risk-reward ratio.
PayPal (PYPL) - Approaching Potential Reversal ZonePayPal has reached our anticipated zone for Wave (ii), respecting the $59 to $57 range. The price action suggests a possible bottom formation, making it a candidate for a potential entry point.
Key observations indicate that the support and reversal zone between $59 and $57 has held and build an EQL there, indicating a possible end to the correction phase. If the price revisits the Point of Control, it could offer another attractive entry point for long-term positions.
However, PayPal remains in a range, making the situation somewhat risky as it hasn't broken out decisively yet. There is a risk that the price could revisit the lower bound around $55.77. Falling below this level would invalidate our bullish outlook.
We are monitoring PayPal closely and will consider entering long positions if the current support holds and the price action confirms a reversal. The Point of Control remains a key level to watch for another potential entry.
$PYPL Small Cap RallyJuly 1 2024 was the absolute best entry for NASDAQ:PYPL for Leaps.
NASDAQ:PYPL the next best entry is a pull back to $59.21, then $58.5. it didn't NASDAQ:PYPL react well from the June 12 CPI/PPI data... but a weak jump this past week. However, a H&S pattern is still in effect, if you believe in such things, but the measure move down on this active HnS patter is all the way down to 51 bucks... but this news may have invalidated it.. Time will tell. Hindsight for President
PAY HELL 🔥 🔥 🔥 : $PYPL ANALYSISWell 2024 im gonna be a man of excellence with my publishing accurate posts aint enough im gonna at least present a SWOT analysis of my own thinking
Strength
Large clientele adding its subsidiary like Venmo
Global Financial service so its magnitude isnt limited to US,EU
Household name even among non users
Weakness
Hight commisions
Lacking innovation (they need the fruits of RND baby)
Opportunities
Maybe cementing a digital bank of sorts and adding their clientele to it integrating them by default
Threats
1. ZELLE 0% commissions made by the same banks they were gladly servicing for free (backstab)
2.Everyone doing P2P so too many opps (competition) i theorise in a near future whatsapp business will have a p2p scratch dat it does in brazil and india (just googled to fact check this obvious impending threat)
3.Their declining stock price and alternative investments options will be their own downfall especially when whatsapp pay (whatsapp) has all their clients already using the messenger the convenience of integrating them by default into their financial service woo wheee good luck an easy 1bn clients without trying but for now whatspay aint rolled out worldwide but it will obviously speaking that is
Here is my contrarian analysis to luke belmar i actually shorted it last year from 88 but didnt publish just snapped a pic mid way cause i knew it would come in handy
WHATSAPP PAY the killer of all p2p except zelle which can be used to send million and billions 0%
Long PYPL on possible wash out lowA good general rule is when we have hyper parabolic rallies like this, if and when we spike out the low of where the rally really started to take off, we usually bottom or make at least a big bull trap rally.
A big wash out, panics the longs. Setups a big bull trap (or low). Worth taking a stab at this now.
PYPL Long IdeaPYPL has been very weak for a long time now. It did have some bullish momentum earlier in the year after an inverse head and shoulders. It dumped on earnings and fell back to the neckline before going on a nice bull run. Now it is all the way back to the neckline again. We saw a bounce already last week and it's sitting right on the line now. I think if NQ rallies, PYPL has a good chance to reverse the recent downtrend. I could see a quick move up to the $72.50 area.
PYPLA very disappointing stock recently, as the ending diagonal was completed. But it needs time, to frame the 1-2 fractal. Wave 1 looks like a leading diagonal, PYPL may be printing a ZZ in the wave 2. Anyway, price is approaching a strong support level - being 62% Fibo level against the prior impulse. Trade safe
