RDSA Shell Koninklijke Olie kan naar 7,5 terugvallen; Shell to 7De vraag naar olie droogt op zoals de vraag naar Haver terug liep toen paarden vervangen werden met brandstof autos. We vervangen nu de olie met electriciteit en dan is Koninklijke Olie klaar.
The demand for oil dries up like the demand for Horsefood fell back when horses were being replaced with fuel cars. Now we replace fuel with electricity and then RDSA Shell is finished
SHELD trade ideas
SHEL opened a short position✅SHEL #SHEL is an energy and petrochemical company in Europe, Asia, Oceania, Africa, the USA and other countries of America.
📊 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
🔴Impeccable balance sheet and good value.
🔴Traded 8.5% below our fair value estimate
🔴Earnings growth is projected at 4.72% per year.
🔴Analysts agree that the stock price will grow by 23.8%
🛠 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
📈 SHORT
▪️ Price fell below 200 and 50 EMA on the daily TF
▪️ MACD is below its signal line and negative.
▪️ RSI is below 50, but not in the oversold zone.
▪️ RSI - bearish divergence
▪️ Breakout of sideways consolidation support
↗️ TRADE
🎯 Target price $63.20
📊 Downside potential 8%
💼 Portfolio #active_management
⚠️ The ideas published are not investment recommendations, this is only the personal opinion of the blog author.
25% sell Shell and buy BPBP and Shell move together and BP has already lead the way lower
If Shell moves back to relative parity there is a 25% poss move
Shell moves back to EMA 200
Shell moves back to 0.618 fib retracement of prior move
This could be start of much larger move lower
Most MSM are claiming inflation trade that oil will move higher but TA price chart shows breaking out of a wedge lower
Shell just broke it trendline support
Good luck no matter which way the market moves if these prices come back to parity over maybe quick snap back or longer term 3-6 months you can pick up 25%
With Sept here and markets closer to top than bottom it safer as your money is hedged
BP triple top at 500
Shel topped out at approx 3000 round number
As both of these moved up hugely over past few years on back of oil price if their prices break the 200 EMA then the banks and other market holders may sell and get out of the long term trend ie bank their profits which could cause swift market moves
USA numbers are weaker than expected, also if the Fed cuts and markets tank following fed announcement which is lead by the bond market which is already lowerer. So it all points to lower shell price.
Also Trump promised to reduce the cost of energy for USA so he wants lower oil prices to reduce the cost of manufacture of goods in USA to make them more competitive
Also with JPYUSD the last time the carry trade got into trouble was due largely in part of the high oil price. Which caused liquidity crisis, hence as they central banks are buying now due to the past months JPYUSD mess up. Historically having a lower oil price helps the JPYUSD situation.
Plus ATM Dollar is strong and emerging markets are relatively weak so having lower oil price may result as Dollar weakens and the emerging markets strengthen over the next couple of years.
I am not so sure retail knows how to hedge any more ? well I am not so sure todays hedge fund mngrs know how to hedge any more they just buy everything and get paid their commissions.
Works fine until theres another liquidity crisis and we are at biblical sentiment indicators so there is a lot of risk out there.
BP / Shell as a pair dont get stretched much apart historically if you have a lot of money and can just sit there with 6,7,8.9,10 figure accounts I think you will do well with this approach
hey we could have banked it together and slept soundly at night! and traded from anywhere in the world with not so much urgency to sit in front of a screen 24/7 - that is this strategy
Shell quick 18% to sell off back to 200 EMA and to 61.8 FibAs Oil is weak bearish case for Shell to sell back to its 200 EMA and then just fake out below this level to reach the 61.8 Fib retracement of the recent move up
Shell looks like it just broke is support trendline
Other points Oil has broken out of a wedge and appears to be moving lower
BP and Shell move together and BP has made ATH at round number 500 and made triple top at this level and has already broken lower.
If you pair trade these two stocks there is now a relative of up to say a potential of 25% to be captured if the two companies prices move back to relative parity to each other
75: Key Levels Amidst Biofuel Plant Construction HaltShell (SHEL) is navigating significant financial and operational challenges. The company recently announced a delay in the construction of its biofuel plant in Rotterdam, which was initially expected to be operational this year but has now been postponed to 2030. This delay has resulted in a financial setback of at least €554 million, potentially escalating to nearly €1 billion, due to technical challenges and unfavorable market conditions.
Given this backdrop, Shell's stock is currently rejecting the key level at 34.315. Here’s what traders should watch:
Bearish Scenario: If Shell loses the current low, we could see a trend change. The new area of interest will be around 32.65, where we anticipate potential support. This level becomes crucial as the market absorbs the financial impact of the delayed biofuel plant and Shell’s strategic adjustments.
Bullish Scenario: If Shell regains the high at 34.315, we should monitor for new highs above 34.745. In this case, we are targeting a high around 36.75, which could sweep liquidity from a monthly high. This bullish momentum could be driven by positive market reactions to any new strategic initiatives Shell undertakes to mitigate the impact of the delay and to capitalize on future regulatory changes in the aviation fuel sector.
The recent halt in the biofuel plant construction adds a layer of complexity to Shell's stock movement. Investors should closely watch these critical levels for potential trading opportunities, considering the broader implications of Shell's operational challenges and market dynamics.
it looks like is over sold ?It's important to note that the specific actions taken by market makers can vary, and their decisions may be influenced by a combination of technical analysis, market conditions, and fundamental factors. Additionally, market makers play a crucial role in maintaining liquidity and efficiency in financial markets.
SHELL PLCafter the call we made on this asset that price will fall into a considerable low, we saw a $5 price drop. Now we have a reasonable probability that price will retrace to its previous support level which should act as resistance.
we believe that price will rise to $65 before further move below. Up Shell PLC then Down Shell Plc shares
SHELL PLC. NYSCit looks like the January is going to be bearish for major assets, with Bitcoin, ETh and Shell likely to go down, the rally has been nice and swift. Now we see a weakening pattern formation on a weekly TF. a break of the lower line will confirm the further move down. we see a sell target at 41.50
SHELLS Q3 Financial reportRoyal Dutch Shell (LON:SHEL)'s Q3 financial outlook, published on Friday, suggests that the energy giant is set to benefit from a sector-wide rally in oil, refined products, and gas prices. The company anticipates enhanced earnings from its gas, chemicals, and product trading operations. These expectations are backed by InvestingPro's data that shows Shell's revenue in the last twelve months (LTM2023.Q2) to be a staggering $358.59 billion, with a gross profit of $88.24 billion.
Shell has been aggressively buying back shares, a move that often signifies management's confidence in the company's future. Another noteworthy tip is that the company has maintained dividend payments for 19 consecutive years.
Shell also foresees a corporate adjusted loss for the quarter. This follows a loss of $654 million reported in Q2 2023. This anticipated loss does not overshadow the fact that Shell has been profitable over the last twelve months, according to InvestingPro Tips. The recent rally in the energy sector could potentially uplift earnings for integrated energy players like Shell.
The official Q3 results of Shell are scheduled to be published on November 2, 2023. These results will provide a clearer picture of the company's performance amidst fluctuating market conditions. The InvestingPro data reveals that Shell's fair value is estimated to be $79.1, which is higher than the previous close price of $62.04, indicating potential growth.
Shell fundamentals and technicals in alignment $$$I've always been a fan of Shell corporation. In spite of the fact they are an oil and gas company I believe they are committed to leading us into a cleaner and greener future. They are well positioned to provide clean energy.
In addition, I believe Shell is benefiting from high inflation and high energy prices.
The chart for Shell is a great example of both a death cross and golden cross, where the 50 and 200 day moving averages cross. Further, you can see the price being supported by the 200 day moving average.
Black Gold or Green Future: The Big Oil ParadoxThis investment strategy scrutinizes the complex landscape of major oil corporations like Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP , situated at the crossroads between their traditional petroleum-based profits ("black gold") and the imperative to transition towards sustainable energy sources (the "green future").
The approach is uniquely neutral, recognizing both the potential upside and downside of these energy giants, and is armed with targets for either trajectory. One must take into account:
1. Nuclear and Fission Energy Impact: The rise of nuclear and fission energy poses another threat to these corporations. As a clean, efficient, and increasingly cost-competitive source of power, nuclear energy is growing in popularity. Once nuclear energy starts to gain more traction and acceptance, it will further undermine the demand for oil, exacerbating the challenges for these energy giants.
2. Regulatory & Environmental Risks: Anticipating potential regulatory changes aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable energy can help set downside targets. At the same time, successful mitigation of environmental risks might offer upside prospects.
3. Drop in Oil: A dramatic oil price drop would significantly reduce these companies' revenue and profitability. Oil price and the financial health of these companies are closely linked, given their heavy reliance on oil sales.
1. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): $250 billion
2. Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS.A): $150 billion
3. Chevron Corporation (CVX): $200 billion
4. BP PLC (BP): $85 billion
TOTAL= 700 Billion