!!!!! going to 400, its overvalued !!!!!!!!!! going to 400, its overvalued !!!!!
IT IS CLEAR THAT IT WILL FOLLOW THE SAME PATH AS PAYPAL, FOR NOW THE OBJECTIVE IS 400
SHOPD trade ideas
This could hit 420Looks like it is heading towards 420. If it did, expect a huge bounce back of $100 or so once it hits 400-420 range.
Getting Better Prices 🎯Hello Fellow Trader!
Key Points:
- candle appear effort to fall on ultra volume
- Flag pattern appeared after the downtrend
- Price penetration flag pattern on ultra volume
- Price breached the resistance area
If: the price rose to the support area and closed above it - this indicates that the structure is not in our favor and it would be wise to reduce exposure or close the position until a strong signal gives us reasons to re-enter.
The Risk:
As traders, it is your job to mitigate the risk and only trade structures that provide high probability and great reward to risk ratios.
If you are not comfortable with defined exit levels, experiment with Moving Averages to help set solid exit rules to protect your capital
SHOP, Why Their 32 P/E Ratio Is False And Its Actually Over 250At first glance, Shopify seems to be at a Undervalued Price Point. They have huge growth, crazy Net Incomes, Profitability, and an Under 35 P/E ratio.
However, taking a look deeper into their Financials, Shopify's P/E ratio is actually much more than 250, which is almost 10x the P/E Ratio given on many brokerages.
So What Gives?
Most of Shopify's Net Income is from their "Equity Investments" NOT SHOPIFY/THEIR PLATFORM. In fact, Shopify made $1,340.8 Million ($1.34 Billion) in Net Income from these Equity Investments. Their actual adjusted Net Profit (Without Equity Investments) is, $102 Million. This means that over 90% of Shopify's "Net Income" is actually from their "equity investments".
These Equity Investments are AFRM and GLBE, both of these stocks are down heavy from their 52 week highs, which represents Shopify also losing lots of money. Currently, Shopify owns around 20+ Million Shares of Affirm (AFRM) and a million shares of GLBE. These shares both lost SUBSTANTIAL Amount of money since last quarter. @ IPO AFRM was trading at $117 which represented $2.34 Billion worth of Shares that Shopify owned, at the 52 Week high these shares became worth around $3.6 Billion, now Shopify's AFRM shares ,which is currently trading at $63, are only worth $1.3 Billion, representing a $1 BILLION LOSS in Share Value from the IPO. This doesn't include their substantial loss in GLBE, which is down almost 60% from its 52 week highs.
Once earnings comes rolling around, Shopify will have to report their substantial loss on these AFRM and GLBE shares, which could push the Company into being very unprofitable for the Company. The market today completely slaughters stocks that are deemed unprofitable and overvalued. The market is punishing stocks and once investors realize that Shopify's PE Ratio is actually WELL OVER 250, and that they aren't as profitable, the Stock could have a heavy dump on Earnings. Very few investors know about their heavy losses on AFRM, and GLBE.
Shopify on earnings will be very interesting, they will not have an overall positive Net Income from these investments. If Investors notice their heavy loss on AFRM and GLBE, the Stock could sink, and it's possible to see SHOP @ $700-$520 given how people view it.
SHOP: Short IdeaShopify has lost 55% since ATH, it´s in a bear trend, broke an important support @880, and still falling with high selling pressure. What do I expect in the next days/weeks? Further drops. My plan? Here´s what I´m gonna do:
1) I expect a momentaneous recovery in the week. Why? The stock market never goes directly to 0, the price always fluctuates, moves in waves (ups and downs), but the overall trend prevails. Also, sellers will take profits in the way down, causing a small recovery. That being said, I will start adding 15% of my total capital for this trade (Risk Management).
2) Once the stock resumes the trend I will add 25% at the breakout of the first trade.
3) 3% down since 2), I will add 40% as the trend, once again, is confirmed.
4) Last but not least, I will add the last 20% after a 4% drop since 2) happened.
Average price $810, take profit @625, total profit 23,47%.
All ideas are welcome! Thanks for your time!
Shopify entered bearish marketShopify entered bearish market.. i will be waiting to buy it at between 585 and 335$
Long term tred line brokenMy personal opinion is that this is largely oversold. A trend line that began back in 2016 has been broken on the weekly chart. Missed on earnings & forecasting losses in 2022 due to reinvesting in the business. Fundamentally this company has not changed.
SHOP earnings thoughtsIf SHOP gaps into this red box on earnings tomorrow morning, straight to $600.
SHOP: Is it a good idea to BUY the DIP?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how SHOP is doing today! It is crashing after earnings, but is it now a good time to buy? After all, “buy when there’s blood in the streets”, right?
Personally, I always like to buy the dips, never the tops, however, as I like to say, there’s a right way of doing it – and there’s a wrong way. The charts can help us a lot here.
Yes, SHOP dropped from $ 1,700s to $ 700s, and it seems nothing can help it. This week, we filled a gap at $ 765, from June 2020, and this is interesting. Remember: Gaps work as magnets. This gap could become a very good support level for SHOP, however, we must always wait for confirmation.
So far, there’s not a single bullish reversal sign, and as far as I know, it still could drop more, to the next support at $ 683, so caution is advised. What could be a bullish reversal pattern? Any bullish candlestick pattern in the weekly chart, like a Bullish Engulfing, Piercing Line, etc. Alternatively, a bullish chart pattern in the daily chart, like an Inverted Head and Shoulders, a Bullish Pivot Point, Double Bottom, etc.
Let’s never buy something because it dropped too much, because it is near support levels, or it “looks oversold”. Let’s use technical analysis in our favor, as we can enhance the odds in our favor, and do the proper risk management using charts.
Either way, we must wait for more signs, but SHOP is a good stock to add to our watch list. I’ll keep you guys updated, so remember to follow me to not miss any of my future analyses.
SHOP Shopify First Price Target Reached On Feb 3rd i was writing this article saying that the price targets after the Feb 16th earnings are $715 and $531:
At that time, the price was $929. i know it seemed ridiculous.
But today the fist price target was reached and i have closed 50% of my position.
The Slowing Growth Outlook was the main catalyst for the selloff: "There is caution around inflation and consumer spend near term, for the full year.”, Shopify officials said, adding: "full year revenue growth will be lower than the 57% increase in 2021."
My price target for this year is $531.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SHOP Shopify Price TargetsSHOP Shopify is not a negative earnings growth stock, but a strong company with a 27.47 EPS and a Price per Earnings of 36.70.
But will the impressive earnings continue on February 16th, when they report?
From my experience having an Shopify store, their fees combined with Paypal`s commissions are killing me. :)
So maybe i am a little bit bias targeting $715 and $531 price per share.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SHOP LONG : Its stock is expensive, valuation can be justified Shop is at critical support level (major structured level
Shop is at 50 Ema support monthly and we have seen significant reaction there in the past
Rsi at oversold area weekly and monthly time frame
You have a confluence of indicators showing that the bottom may be in
I will say around these levels going into earning with the stock being beat due to inflationary pressures from investors — this provides a great entry point and need be - dollar cost average down
This was just a 1600 dollar stock cut in half! Bargaining chip
1. Structured level as support
2. Oversold Rsi and Macd levels
3. a spinning top at the bottom of a downtrend could signal that bears are losing control and bulls may take the reins.
Summary: Get with the program!
“ The company reported Q3 results in November, and the financial picture did not seem to be hurt by these inflationary pressures. The company reported total revenue growth of 47% year over year to $1.1 billion, and its merchant solutions -- which investors worry are going to be hurt by inflation -- grew 51% year over year.
Shares have been crushed because of low investor sentiment, but analysts are predicting continued expansion. Wall Steet expects $1.34 billion in Q4 revenue, which is growth of 20% sequentially and 37% year over year. While this is lower than Q3, it still represents a strong improvement. Management cited that holiday sales were larger than normal, but still underwhelming industrywide, showing that the slowing growth was not just a Shopify problem. ”
Shopify has the best of a few worlds: It is already dominant in the SMB space and has plenty of runways to growth via product expansion and a burgeoning addressable market of customers
Also keep in mind that Shopify's growth is decelerating, however understand that the expansion of its stickier subscription business should offset the tough year-over-year comparisons for its merchant solutions business, which experienced unusually strong gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth during the pandemic.
Bullish Long-Term Channel $SHOPIt appears that SHOP is approaching the bottom of its long-term channel, with stochastics finding a floor as well. Earnings that include their record Black Friday/Cyber Monday are on tap tomorrow.
Earnings watch 2/16 pre-marketEarnings watch 2/16 pre-market:
SHOP
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GOLD
TTD
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KHC
HLT
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ADI
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
*3x lucky 7s of trading*
7pt Trading compass:
Price action, entry/exit
Volume average/direction
Trend, patterns, momentum
Newsworthy current events
Revenue
Earnings
Balance sheet
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+5% portfolio trades, capital risk management
Beware of analyst's motives
Emotions & Opinions
FOMO : bad timing, the market is ruthless, be shrewd
Lack of planning & discipline
Forgetting restraint
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Reading books, playing chess
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so like pretty much yeah mate, umm go short on MSFT because ofTANo other reason just TA yeah mate, why not give me some umm...... reputation sounds good amte yeah umm go short and we print safe on g, bro science.
LONG SHOPBiased on volume, TA and the purpose of the company more people will start buying this stock again.
The question is are we at the bottom for now, I think we probably are because of volume and Fib lines.
How high will it go? probably not ATH anytime soon because of how huge drop shipping was, But about 50% back to ATH should be normal, may take a while before this stock gains some momentum but I see this as a grate opportunity for building a large position with DCA by time.
Bottom for shop?Triple seen clearly on the 4h timeframe on shopify. It can be seen on the daily also but its not as clear imo.
Im hoping this is the bottom on shop but with earnings coming soon it can still possibly go lower as we have seen in other tech stocks like facebook.
Also see some rsi divergence happening which can suggest we will move up.
I believe amazon earnings helped for tech stocks in finding a bottom.
Although some may find shop overvalued i believe this company still as a lot of growth.
DYOR.
Upside +50%The action is very much unloaded. I am planning a return closer to the support highs zones. As well as the moving averages. Upside +50% Indicators are entering the long zone. We trade with a stop.
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SHOP below $800 soonShopify has currently corrected about 50% from it’s peak and looks like there’s more selling ahead. A high growth name in inflationary environment, so odds are its gets hit more. There’s barely any support below $800, so probably expect it to flush once this bounce is done.
SHOPWe are on Fibo 38 and we can see a big volume, this could be the buy signal
i will buy more to average my cost
estamos en Fibo 38 y se ve un volumen muy alto, esto puede ser buena señal para comprar
SHOP: You Always Have to Catch It Right Nice double bottom formed on Friday, but am looking to get another stab at this at $780-800 early next week. I think the trade is buying at $785 area. Options too expensive for me M-W so will see where its at Thursday/Friday. I will take a trade like that if I really like where the growth is going.
The $850c against $785 would be my area of interst. Over $875 we can see $950 easy.
