SHOPSHOP is a weekly buying demand area, taking into account not breaking the expected target area, area 73
SHOPD trade ideas
$SHOP will push higher to end 2Q24May 30, 2024 @6:57AM
MONTHLY
- Currently on a downtrend (2D-2D-2D Continuation) #TheStrat
- Finishing off a Stage 3 #TheMoneyFlow
- MACD curling down, RSI curling down at 46
WEEKLY
- MACD beginning to curl up
- Price is b/t the 0.618 & 0.786 monthly fibs (Oct 2023 - Feb 2024)
- Price is slightly under last week's middle price of $58.51 at $58.18 (pre-market)
DAILY
- Price appears to moving upward after touching lower weekly broadening formation (BF) #thestrat
- Gap to be filled above ($64-75) and gap to be filled below ($55-$48)
- MACD and RSI curling up
- On May 28, NYSE:GS maintained NYSE:SHOP as a BUY
DECISION:
HOLDING 2 NYSE:SHOP 65C 19 JUL 24 (AVG: $1.76) (DOWN 30% @ 1.25).
SHOP - Make or Break ?SHOP was doing too good until today.
If this can hold 61 down below, we can see continuation to the upside rally with upside
Upside Target #1 - 75
Upside Target #2 - 80
If this breaks 61/60 , we can see downside gap fill upto 48
Downside Target #1 - 55
Downside Target #2 - 48
Rate cuts should favor these growth names.
All eyes on 61 price level. !!
Shopify (SHOP) Fundamental Analysis and Fair Value Estimate
**1. Revenue and Growth:**
- **Q1 2024 Revenue**: Increased by 23% YoY to $1.9 billion.
- **Adjusted Growth**: 29% growth when adjusting for the sale of logistics businesses.
**2. Profitability:**
- **Gross Profit**: Grew by 33%, reaching $957 million.
- **Gross Margin**: Improved to 51.4% from 47.5% last year.
- **Net Loss**: $273 million or $0.21 per share, compared to a net income of $68 million last year.
**3. Cash Flow:**
- **Free Cash Flow**: $232 million in Q1 2024, up from $86 million last year.
- **Free Cash Flow Margin**: Doubled to 12% YoY.
**4. Balance Sheet:**
- **Cash and Marketable Securities**: $5.2 billion as of March 31, 2024.
- **Net Cash Position**: $4.3 billion after accounting for convertible notes.
**5. Market Position and Competition:**
- **GMV**: Grew by 23% to $60.9 billion in Q1 2024.
- **Merchant Solutions**: Driven by growth in GMV and Shopify Payments.
**6. Valuation Metrics:**
- **Price-to-Sales Ratio**: 14.1x vs. industry average of 16.9x.
- **Fair PS Ratio**: Estimated fair PS ratio is 10.1x, indicating potential overvaluation based on current metrics.
**7. Fair Value Estimates:**
- **Morningstar**: $68 per share.
- **Simply Wall St**: $58.61 per share.
- **Yahoo Finance**: Approximately $49.16 per share.
**Conclusion:**
- **Fair Value Range**: $50 to $68 per share.
- **Considerations**: Strong revenue growth, improving margins, and robust cash flow support the higher valuation, while economic cycle exposure and SMB customer risks may introduce volatility.
$SHOP - Breaking out!NYSE:SHOP Shopify is breaking out from a wedge. Look for a close above the 200DMA for confirmation.
It is also forming a multi-year cup and handle pattern. A breakout above $90 could see much further upside in the stock.
SHOP Waking UpSHOP has been declining for the last ~6 months and now finally waking up. This might be a start to a reversal and then a nice trend. :)
SHOP - LongBreakout, I bought end july calls $70 strike. I think market is still going to hold strong the next few weeks/months.
SHOP at important level#SHOP is at a pivot level were a trendline is meeting with some resistance,
I can see price revisiting highs if we break above this level
Buy SHOP if it closes above 68.5If Shopify (US) closes above $68.5, my trade plan will be buying 75 call @ 2.4 or 80 call @ 1.45 20 September 2024
Shopify (SHOP:NYSE) receives support from Goldman SachsJuly 2024: Shopify's shares took a heavy hit in May after a moderate Q1 earnings report which might have beaten investor consensi, EPS by $0.04 & revenue by $20 mio, yet this was not enough to prevent a large selloff. The share price is currently recovering and is now trading 4,5% higher than it did 12 months ago. This is partly thanks to the analyst from Goldman Sachs, who kept the share rating at "buy" signalling that Goldman Sachs believes Shopify can further accelerate its growth. In general Shopify's rating remains a moderate buy, with analysts giving it a price target of $76.42, a 15.5% upside.
Shopify has been able to increase its market share in e-commerce software platforms and technologies over the last 18 months, now sitting at around 10%, so its large investments in marketing are therefore paying off and bringing in lucrative orders. Shopify is also investing in artificial intelligence (AI) which gives the company a competitive advantage given the large data pool it has access to, and already uses the technology having launched the Shopify Magic suite last year.
The technicals are painting a somewhat mitigated picture, with the RSI sitting in neutral territory around 54 in the daily chart. The stock's price sits above the 50 day MA, and wasn't able to break through the 100 day MA which is flattening out around the 69 mark, which had proved to be a relevant support zone before the drop.
The on balance volume is telling us a similar story, namely that buying and selling pressures have balanced out in the last months and that traders are probably lacking a bit of conviction at the moment. We will most likely have to wait for the Q2 earnings report at the end of the month before seeing a significant move again.
$SHOP BreakoutThis 4-hour chart highlights a significant breakout from a downtrend, marked by a rounded bottom pattern indicating a bullish reversal. The price has successfully broken above a key downward trend line and is showing higher lows and higher highs, supported by upward-moving averages. I entered 7/12 $68 Calls at the end of the day once the 4-hour candle broke the pennant resistance. I hope to see a volume spike Friday and to swing these contracts into the following week.
SHOP - Swing Entry to Fill The Gap = Target $75As per the title, I will be looking for a swing entry on Tuesday the 2nd of July with a view to fill the gap above + targeting $75. The flush that occurred on Monday was the trigger for a potential coming reversal higher in my mind.
Stop Loss will be under the July 1st LOD at just under $63.
$SHOPNYSE:SHOP this thing is building nice consolidation on the daily , looking to fill that gap at 70 above. Expect a breakout tomorrow, or next week at latest
SHOP curling back up to continue filling the gapSHOP is about to break the AVWAP from it's recent high in the gap. I feel it will have a little bump at 69 but eventually fills the gap at $75.
Downtrend in Shopify?Shopify has struggled since late 2021 and now some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the pair of high-volume bearish gaps after quarterly results on February 13 and May 8. Both drops came despite better-than-expected earnings, which may suggest the e-commerce stock is a distribution phase.
Second, SHOP rebounded from the last selloff but stalled at the preceding low around $68. (Also notice how the first drop occurred at a key low from late 2020.)
Have old support zones become new resistance areas?
Third, prices are reversing at the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
Fourth, the 50-day SMA had a “death cross” below the 200-day SMA earlier this month. That may reflect a bearish longer-term trend.
Stochastics are additionally starting to dip from an overbought condition.
Finally, TradeStation data shows that SHOP is a highly active underlier in the options market, averaging about 110,000 contracts per day in the last month. Traders looking for downside in the next few weeks may consider a strategy such as the July 60-July 55 put spread. It’s quoted for less than $0.75 and could potentially widen to $5 if SHOP falls slightly below its recent low.
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SHOP all set to 75 +All the indicators are firing positive for $ SHOP
Expect a quick rise in the next few days.
Bull Bear Power looking very positive..
GAP FILL! SHOP otw to 67
Shop has been forming a rounded base after a major correction and I believe we will see an upward trend and flight through the Gap Fill zone and go back to 67-75 price range
Above 62.31 we should see the Gap begin filling
on the 15minute the IHNS is ready to pop and above it is a gap
SHOP's bull flag played out and I now see an inverted head and shoulders before we go to 67 from 61.83
I plan to buy many more calls with an expire at most of14dte and a PT of 65-67
NASDAQ:PYPL looks good with the sector; will post that chart before the weekend
Will update when I have more; comment any questions or chart requests
SHOP - Shopify - Short Set UpLooks like a short term reversal on 1H TF. will trigger my entry on break of 63.48
Entry 63.48
Stoploss 64.70
tp-1 62.27
tp-2 61.05
#Trading #Technical #Crypto #Stocks #commodities
SHOP - might not fill this gapHOP looks like its fallen off of peoples radar. Daily BB extended below the weekly with nice follow through. Positive improvement on the KST and Chaikin oscillator.
The blue AVWAP overhead is anchored to the July 2023 high and aligns to the 1.272 extension. It likely sees selling there, which would frustrate buyers that are looking for it to fill the 4/16 gap.
Time to shop for some SHOPI sent this out to our chat room a couple of months ago and it has been following the forecast nicely. If things stay on track, we should start seeing some excitement soon.
SHOP BUYThe price is moving from the resistance zone that was around $90. The market has driven the price down to the upward trendline. This trendline is supported by the weekly demand zone, which is very close to the monthly buy zone. Although there is a risk on the daily chart of closing the gap down to $48.80, I believe this is a good opportunity to take a buy position.
SHOP “Shopify”……”Potential Reversal”SHOP “Shopify” is retesting a trend line that goes back to October 2022……tested the same trendline in October 2023…..we’re currently bouncing from this trend line as of last week and headed towards a recent gap to the downside from Q1 earnings. After a nice bullish candle last week, I believe we’ll see more bullish momentum soon once buyers step in…..let’s see how this one plays out
SHOP Long Term Swing Idea Into August or Jan 2025Break above this box and you wont ever have to look back here.
