T trade ideas
AT&T | Fundamental Analysis | Short Setup | MUST READ ! 🔔AT&T used to be regarded as a well-built blue-chip stock for income-oriented investors. But within the past several years, the telecommunications and media titan has lost about 40% of its market value, and its stock is now near a 12-year low.
AT&T's tumble can be explained by three big missteps. First, it bought DirecTV in 2015 for $49 billion in a failed effort to extend its pay-TV business. Then, it bought Time Warner for $85 billion in 2018 in a desperate struggle to build a streaming media ecosystem. Both deals resulted in the company biting off far more than it could chew, and its long-term debt burden soared.
Finally, AT&T has been so caught up in its media expansion that its wireless segment has been idle. Last year, T-Mobile outdid AT&T as the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States through its merger with Sprint, and its 5G network has more coverage than Verizon and AT&T.
These setbacks have been frustrating, but the stock now trades at just seven times its projected earnings, with a 9.1 percent yield. Should investors think of buying AT&T as an undervalued dividend asset?
Over the past year, AT&T has taken some steps to convert its most critical choices. In May, it stated its intention to separate WarnerMedia (most of Time Warner's media assets) and merge it with Discovery to create an independent company by mid-2022. AT&T's current investors will get stocks in this new company.
In August, AT&T separated DirecTV into a new stand-alone company. AT&T kept 70% of the stock in this new company, and investment firm TPG bought the remaining 30%.
AT&T also sold several smaller companies, including the Latin American satellite division of Vrio, mobile game publisher Playdemic, tabloid news site TMZ, and anime platform Crunchyroll, as well as some real estate to further streamline the business.
The company thinks this approach will free up more resources to expand its 5G network as well as decrease the long-term debt accumulated from deals with DirecTV and Time Warner. The company says its net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ratio will drop from a "peak" of 3.1 in early 2021 to 2.5 or lower by the end of 2023.
After the WarnerMedia separation, AT&T expects its annual revenue to grow at a low single-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2024, and its adjusted EBITDA and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow at an average single-digit CAGR. In other words, the growth rate of the "new" AT&T may look more stable and analogous to that of Verizon.
AT&T is eventually taking some moves in the correct direction, but it still encounters challenges. WarnerMedia's merger with Discovery will create a larger media business, but the combined company may still struggle to keep up with major players like Netflix and Disney in the competitive streaming market. So the "new" Discovery may not be much better than the old one, which has already lost 14 percent of its value over the past five years.
AT&T will also cut its dividend after it separates WarnerMedia. The company anticipates the "new" AT&T to bring at least $20 billion in free cash flow (FCF) on its own and then pay 40% to 43% of that amount in dividends. Meanwhile, WarnerMedia probably won't pay a dividend at all, as it would make more sense to keep that money for investments in streaming.
When AT&T set this cash dividend payout ratio earlier this year, its stock price assumed a future yield of 4-5%. However, AT&T stock has afterwards fallen and increased its yield to 7%-8%. Some investors may believe that AT&T will meet its obligations and maintain this high yield after the spin-off. But if AT&T's stock price stays at $20, the company may decrease its payout ratio and high yield to preserve more cash.
AT&T needs cash because its wireless business still faces challenges shortly. At an up-to-date Wells Fargo conference, Jeff McElfresh, head of communications, warned that AT&T's wireless growth could "go flat" in 2022 after incentive checks and new 5G devices boosted sales in 2021. That negative outlook, along with stiff competition from T-Mobile and Verizon, could make steady growth difficult for the new AT&T.
AT&T is trying to heal its wounds, but the market does not give much credence to its recovery efforts. Analysts still expect the company's earnings to decline both this year and next year (not including the upcoming separation), and earnings growth will remain anemic.
Investors should understand that AT&T stock is cheap for obvious reasons, and they should not buy it until there are some positive results.
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$T - Chart analysis Dec 6 - 10$T - December 5th, 2021.
If T gets over the 24-24.26 area, it's good for short-term calls. The concern, however, is resistance at 25 and 25.58. If it goes above and fails from the 24-24.26 area, it's a good short till the 22.22-22.55 area. Then further continuation is expected below that.
Overall, short bias on this one.
Let me know your thoughts!
Fairly Priced For Boring PeopleGood afternoon gang!
Hope everyone is doing well & isn't getting too blown out in the carnage today in the majority of the market.
If you're looking for something boring to put your money into, AT&T didn't used to be an option, but it's now gotten to a price where it's beginning to look interesting.
Back when the split was announced, I remember doing some back-of-the-napkin math and coming to the conclusion that the cheaper end of the map would be about 22 a share, which we very nearly touched recently. Plus, the juicy 9% yield. seems compelling as a place to hide until the higher beta black hole passes, if you feel like bailing. Or, levering up on a 2x position for an 18% yield on this stock which trades like a bond. Only thing to track is the upcoming separation where you'll get two companies.
Cheers!
AT&T Amazing Buy at 0.618 Price has recently hit the .618 Fib level
This has been historically a place of rejection to the upside
Likely this rejection pattern will continue and we will see another up move from AT&T
Weekly Chart
ATT AT&T: Is It Finally Time To Go Up?Hello friends, today I am completing a technical analysis on the 1M linear scale chart for AT&T Inc. ( ATT ), traded on the NYSE.
#CryptoPickk notes the following:
1) AT&T price has been falling year over year since the all time high at around $60 in 1999.
2) The price has been moving inside of a triangle pattern with a lower trendline which has supported the price since 1994. The price is currently testing this trendline.
3) The RSI (relative strength index) is about to reach the oversold area on the monthly scale. This is the second time it has done so in its entire history.
4) The Volume has picked up significantly compared to the prior years.
5) If the price has a monthly close above the bottom trendline and stays above it, there may be a good chance the price will start moving upwards.
6) Most recently AT&T price fell fast due to growth and dividend issues. Management is working to address these issues.
7) Lastly, the Fibonacci Retracement levels are noted in case the price keeps falling.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
ATT longwe are approaching at 27 year low around 18.59 price target. it maybe soon time to add. what do you think?
Buy AT&T TOP 25.88 2 month time periodBuy now with selling put strike 23 premia 2,7% valid untul 17.12.21
AT&T - x2 potentialA complex corrective pattern on weekly/monthly scale.
Price is down 50% from the 10-year moving average.
The dump looks like a diagonal - in this structure it may be an ending diagonal in a flat pattern.
Next move should be up.
IMO - one of the best dividend players in the US at a heavy discount.
Trade and invest safe!
AT&T | Fundamental Analysis | Must Read...AT&T's stock price hit a 52-week low of $24.54 at the beginning of the month after the company postponed the rollout of its C-band spectrum, a component of its new 5G network, waiting for an aviation safety review. As of this writing, the company's stock remains around $25, allowing it to buy the stock while its price declines.
But the decision to buy the stock is not a clear-cut one, because today's AT&T is a company at a crossroads. CEO John Stankey, who took over the company last year, is returning AT&T to its telecommunications roots after his predecessor decided on a series of costly entertainment-related acquisitions.
These acquisitions burdened the company with huge debt as AT&T undertakes the costly rollout of its 5G network. However, despite the challenges, there are plenty of reasons to consider investing in this venerable telecom titan.
A key reason to consider AT&T stock is its wireless business, which is experiencing strong growth. Q3 results showed the biggest increase in net additions of postpaid subscribers in more than a decade. The net addition of postpaid subscribers is a key metric because postpaid subscribers are the most valuable in the telecommunications industry. The third quarter was the third consecutive quarter of growth in net postpaid additions, reaching 928,000.
Thanks to subscriber growth, AT&T's mobile division has seen steady service revenue growth since reaching a pandemic low in the second quarter of last year. In fact, the company's service revenue for 2021 exceeds its 2019 pre-pandemic level.
AT&T's strong customer growth means the company is succeeding against its opponents in the competitive U.S. telecommunications market. And AT&T isn't just acquiring customers, it's retaining them. In the third quarter, the company maintained postpaid subscriber churn at a record low of 0.72%.
AT&T is still in the early stages of 5G adoption, so it has a chance to keep growing its customer base. And because it needs newer 5G-enabled cell phones to use its 5G network, AT&T could get additional growth from equipment sales. The company's equipment revenue in the third quarter was $4.6 billion, up 15 percent year over year.
Part of the company's success comes from offering more expensive wireless plans bundled with HBO Max, a streaming service owned by AT&T's WarnerMedia entertainment division. WarnerMedia's segment is recovering in 2021 after a pandemic-induced 13.7 percent drop in revenue in 2020.
WarnerMedia's third-quarter revenue rose 14% year over year to $8.4 billion. The segment was helped by five straight quarters of subscription revenue growth since the launch of HBO Max last May.
WarnerMedia's direct-to-consumer (DTC) division, which includes HBO Max, reached 69.4 million global subscribers, the highest since the launch of HBO Max. This increased DTC subscription revenue by about 25 percent year-over-year.
As part of the company's decision to concentrate on its telecommunications business, AT&T will merge WarnerMedia with Discovery into a new entertainment company, to be called Warner Bros. Discovery. AT&T intends to maintain its partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery after the merger, which will allow AT&T to continue to offer its packages. Investors will benefit by receiving shares of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Despite its successes, the company, which is in transition, has bumps in the road to recovery. When AT&T loses revenues from WarnerMedia after the merger is completed in mid-2022, subsequent year-over-year comparisons will likely show declining revenues. That's what happened with the third-quarter earnings results.
AT&T's total revenue for the third quarter fell 5.7% year over year, from $42.3 billion to $39.9 billion. The decline was due to the company's decision to spin off its video division, another entertainment acquisition that included DirecTV. Excluding this segment, AT&T's third-quarter revenue would have been up 4.7% year over year.
In addition, there is AT&T debt. Although the company is reducing debt, the 5G rollout is costly. AT&T spent more than $23 billion in a government auction in February to acquire spectrum for its 5G network. That brought its total debt to $179 billion in the third quarter, up from $157 billion at the end of 2020.
But AT&T has consistently generated billions of dollars of free cash flow each quarter, allowing it to meet its obligations. In the third quarter, free cash flow was $5.2 billion, and the company is on track to reach about $26 billion in free cash flow this year.
Patient investors, prepared for the long term, can expect AT&T to be financially stronger while gaining shares of the new, growing entertainment company. Given all the positives, this telecom company stock is a worthy investment.
LONG TWatching AT&T for lower time frame trendline break to the upside. Then planning to ride it up to the $26 downtrend line. Have a confluence of RSI divergence, but MACD hasn't pushed into cloud on lower time frame (15M/1HR) to signify full trend reversal. Still watching, and have an alert set (Pink Line) for trendline and resistance break. If it takes these out with volume then I'll enter calls.
Giant accumulation on TT seems ready to give a shot up, and this could be the low of the year, let's see
$T with a Neutral outlook following its earnings #Stocks The PEAD projected a Neutral outlook for $T after a Positive over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift B with an expected accuracy of 42.86%.
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T Breaking TrendlineUnfortunately it looks like T has broken a long term trend line, was really hoping to see this form a nice wedge for a bullish breakout in a few years. I see some strong support in $22-$19 range and will take a small position and begin adding there.
Atnt (Update)Looks like we are at a reasonable support seeing how price has tested this low that we are at about 4 times since December of 2018. In May, a previous high was broken and although since then, price has made a newer low we still need to be careful with our price targets long term. I believe that price retracing the previous of May of this year could be more than safe. Let's see what happens. Oh, and Warner Bros will have the first all Black Western showing on different platforms November 3rd. It should be a fun movie to watch.
T (AT&T) At a level of HIGH VALUE + 8.03% DividendAT&T (Ticker Symbol T) is currently at a position of very high value (buy zone)
It is held by over 50 hedge funds for a reason and it has a dividend of just over 8%!
I have an alert set up when it goes below 25.10. Will buy with a tight SL at 24.50 (as it bounced off 25.00 on 13th Oct)
For the more cautious minded, you can enter when it breaks through resistance and forms a 'higher high' above 28-29.
It's 52wk high is just under 34.00, so represents an excellent risk/reward with a potential upside of approx 50% within a year + the 8% dividend
Happy Trading!
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AT&T for the beatI just couldn't resist a nibble on AT&T after that strong reversal "doji" played out with the stock price at 10 year lows. Momentum indicators are also starting to suggest an upward trajectory despite the earnings report "risk". Expected to report tonight, and besides the technicals, anything even slightly less than bad should send the stock rocketing of these very low levels. Admittedly, it is a risky buy ahead of earnings but hey, I am not here for a haircut. I have, however, placed a protective stop-loss at $23.70. But if she runs...I will let her run...
At&t Earnings preview.breakout finally?I Mean it's pretty much rock bottom right here. We'll need to get over that downtrend at 27.20. After 27 there will be a lot of resistance to fight through in that 28.30-29.50 area
ATNTPeople forget that the deal between them and discovery wont take effect until next year. I know there has been a sell off due to the dividend cut, however, I would like to see retracement of the previous high and I also see a potential W pattern forming on the daily. The win goes to the longest holder. Let's see what this looks like over the next year or two!
