TGTD trade ideas
TGT, BBY Earnings: Retail Brick & Mortar Topping Patterns Target and Best Buy reported earnings today and their stock values fell, TGT worse than BBY. The retail brick and mortar stores are the last group to report each season. The ubiquitous AMZN has put most of this type of store at risk of total displacement as consumers prefer the ease and speed of online shopping over driving to a store.
Technical patterns are even more important in a downtrend as the 3 primary market participant groups that sell short are technically oriented rather than fundamentalist or emotional buyers or sellers. Study both weekly and daily charts before you choose stocks to sell short, in order to calculate potential support bounce levels, and to anticipate how far a stock can drop.
This is one of the newer topping formations that developed in the past few years as the market became fully automated for the Institutions.
updateGreen zone a key level to watch in TGT. I expect the price to react strongly (either up or down) when reaching this zone. Wait for price to react before making a trade or be sure to use stops based on your own risk tolerance.
$TGT INSIDE WEEK AND DOUBLE INSIDE DAYMONTHLY CHART BEARISH
WEEKLY CHART INSIDE
DOUBLE INSIDE DAY
MONTHLY CHART TELLING US TO FAVOR SHORT
PREFER A GAP UP TO SHORT ON WEAKNESS
WILL PLAY EITHER SIDE THOUGH
Target (TGT) earnings: revenue growth accelerating or not?Target Corporation (TGT) shares are trading at 83.27. The company is scheduled to announce its second-quarter results on August 22 before the opening bell. What's driving TGT stock price? What's TGT stock price forecast?
Analysts are keeping an eye peeled for market share gains after strong Walmart results last week.
Target is an iconic brand that's under threat from considerably larger and more powerful competitors Amazon and Walmart. The company differentiates itself through signature categories (apparel and wellness) that carry higher margins and faster growth rates than other areas of its business.
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TGTNow price is in the range between levels:
supoort level @72.45
resistance level @73.21
Enter if m15 hold above 73.25
Stop: 72.36
Target 1: 74.4
Target 2: 74.98
short TGT - Short Term TradeI have bought the puts for TGT ending next week. This has been falling for the last 2 days on decent volume.
My tgt : 75
SL : 78
Sharing a chart for a friend. Price prediction for TGTI believe that target has room to retrace to the $64 range. There is strong long term support at these levels and it could be a strong buy signal.
Good place to buy TGTGood spot to pick up some TGT. Lots of support (100 EMA, cloud and previous resistance). Additionally, TGT will be on a red 9 on the TD indicator, so a good spot for a price flip (at least temporarily). I'll put an $83 to $85 target on this, with timetable of 4-8 weeks. Bonus bullevidence... upcoming golden cross of the 50/200 EMA on the weekly.
Bullish CypherBullish Cypher with bullish divergence. It looks messy but it measures really well.
Measurements
- .786XC
- 1.27BC
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, ANF, COST, XOP, OIH, FXIA trio of retail names, TGT, ANF, and COST announce next week ... .
TGT announces on 3/6 before market open. Preliminarily, the March 16th, 11-day, 20-delta 69.5/81 short strangle pays 1.54 at the mid, with its defined risk counterpart, the 66.5/69/81/84 iron condor paying under 1/3rd the width of the wings at .83/contract, slightly shy of the credit I like to receive on those to pull the trigger.
For those into the short put/acquire/cover cycle type trade (I'm going to refer to these as "spack" trades for short):* the 30 delta, March 16th 71.5 short put is paying 1.37 at the mid, which would yield a cost basis of 70.13 of any assigned shares, a discount of 6.7% over where the underlying is currently trading.
ANF announces on 3/7 before market open. Given the size of the underlying, I'd probably go short straddle, with the March 16th 21 paying 3.22 at the door and its defined risk iron fly variation -- the 17/21/21/25 paying 2.56, slightly greater than 1/4 the width of the long strangle component of the setup, which is what I want to see at the least out of an iron fly.
The "spack" trade: the March 16th, 30 delta 19 short put is paying .91/contract, yielding a cost basis of 18.09 in any assigned shares versus 20.68 market, a 12.5% discount.
Lastly, COST announces on the 7th, after market close. The March 16th 177.5/200 short strangle is paying 2.40, with the defined risk 172.5/177.5/200/205 paying 1.21, somewhat short of 1/3rd the width of the wings.
The spack trade is to sell the March 16th 182.5 for 2.31/contract which would result in a cost basis of 180.19 in assigned shares -- a 4.8% discount over where shares are currently trading.
Sector-wise, the volatility remains in a familiar place, with XOP/OIH having the highest (34%). FXI (29%), XRT (27%), and XHB (26%) follow in descending order, with background implied a bit on the light side (I like >35% to bother).
Depending on your thoughts about where petro is heading: The XOP April 20th 31/37 short strangle is paying 1.01 at the mid (neutral assumption); the April 20th 32 short put (bullish assumption) is paying .74 with a resulting cost basis of 31.26 (an 8.4% discount over current share price); and the Plain Jane slightly monied April 20th 34 covered call (buy shares at 34.14, sell the April 20th 34 short call) costs 32.50 to put on (a 4.8% discount over current price) (selling the April 20th 34 short put for 1.47 yields basically the same metrics).
The FXI April 20th 44/51 short strangle is paying 1.41 at the mid, with the spack trade being to sell the April 20th 45 put for a .94 credit, resulting in a cost basis of 44.06 per share, a 6.8% discount over where the underlying is currently trading.
* -- Generally speaking, the cycle is to: (a) Sell puts. At expiry, if price is above your strike, you keep the premium. (b) If at expiry, price is below your strike, either allow yourself to be assigned, or roll the short put out "as is" for credit and therefore further cost basis reduction. (c) On assignment, proceed to cover your shares by selling calls against at or above your cost basis in the shares, looking to exit the trade profitably.
Possible TGT bullish pennant formationIf price action closes above flag's upper resistance level, expect a brief retest of resistance to establish support and then a continuation higher. NYSE:TGT
Possible bullish flag breakout on TGTIf price action closes above flag's upper resistance level, expect a possible retest of resistance to establish support and then a bullish continuation. NYSE:TGT
TGT Swing Trade on a pullback into the 10/20 EMALooks like a good place for Target to pullback before continuing bullish. The stop is below the 10, 20, and 50 EMA on the hourly, as well as the 100 and 200 SMA. I believe that will be too many averages for it to breakthrough to trigger the stop. Hoping to be in this trade for less than 2 weeks.
Quick swing tradeWho knows what happens with the crazy volatility in the markets, but I'm hoping for a small pullback on Target to trigger this bad boy. I figure it's going to move quite a bit tomorrow. Time will tell.
