Update - Tesla Bears in trouble Update to my previous post... Not too late to buy - you don't want to miss this next move
TSLA trade ideas
Tesla to $350: Unleashing the the C wave?"In this video, I break down MARKETSCOM:TESLA ’s short-term bullish potential. If we break above the $350 area, we could see a C-wave completion targeting the descending trendline near $380 by the end of the week. Don’t miss this trade setup
$TSLA Sales Slump but is Support Near?Is Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) facing a sales slump and an overpriced valuation? In this video, we dive into the latest Tesla stock analysis, starting with the declining sales numbers and why the current valuation might be raising red flags for investors. We then break down the weekly chart, spotlighting a potential breakdown retest as NASDAQ:TSLA price nears key support levels around the 243 weekly SMA. What was once resistance could now flip to support—find out how! Zooming into the daily chart, we explore the 280 price level where the 200 SMA is and outline a possible 5-wave pattern completing at 243, followed by a correction toward Goldman Sachs’ 320 target and Bank of America’s 380 forecast. But could a deeper drop to 200 be on the horizon? Get the full technical analysis, price targets, and insights to navigate NASDAQ:TSLA ’s next move in this must-watch stock market update!
$TSLA worst 4 years are ahead us under president Trump? - What biden couldn't done would be done under $TRUMP.
- NASDAQ:TSLA has always traded at a premium devoid of any fundamentals.
- NASDAQ:TSLA cars are ugly looking cars as compared to NYSE:BYD and $RIVN. It's technology is great but you are basically buying a cheap build quality cars.
- Everyone thought that Trumpn <-> Elon parternship will be great for $TSLA. But my hunch is it will be bad for NASDAQ:TSLA shareholders. Elon's association with Trump will drag the NASDAQ:TSLA shares down and always in the limelight.
- Most elite investors are often leftist and might want to distance with trump and elon.
Fundamentally,
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 2.90 | 3.85 | 4.96. | 6.40
EPS growth% | 18.02% | 32.82% | 28.87% | 29.12%
Fair forward p/e for a company growing EPS 20%+ with a moat is ~ 30
Fair stock value:
Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
Stock price ( base case p/e = 30) | $87 | $115 | $148 | $192 |
Stock price (bear case p/e = 20 ) | $58 | $77 | $99 | $128 |
Stock Price ( bull case p/e = 50 ) | $150 | $192 | $248 | $320 |
- Bulltard + Elon musk premium p/e if ELON divorces with Trump = 100
Stock price ( p/e = 100 ) | $290 | $385 | $496 | $640
Charging Toward Highs!Tesla has recently demonstrated bullish momentum, with a notable gap forming around the $280 level, indicating renewed investor interest. This technical setup suggests the potential for a significant upward move, with the stock eyeing the $373.04 weekly resistance level as a pivotal point. A successful breakout above this threshold could propel TSLA toward the $414.50 resistance, offering an attractive risk-to-reward ratio for investors.
Why TSLA Could Accelerate to $414.50:
Technical Indicators: TSLA's current price of $292.98 is approaching the 50-day moving average of $300.04, and a sustained move above this average could signal a bullish trend continuation.
barchart.com
Analyst Insights: Analysts have identified TSLA as a potential rebound candidate for 2025, noting its inclusion among stocks that could recover after previous declines.
Financial Performance: In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla reported revenues nearing $3.5 billion, with a net income of $238 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $503 million, reflecting robust operational performance.
Strategic Initiatives: The company's recent pricing of $700 million in senior notes due 2030 indicates a strategic approach to strengthening its capital structure, potentially supporting future growth initiatives.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Support: $280 (gap level), $249.99 (stop-loss)
Breakout Trigger: $373.04 (weekly resistance)
Target: $414.50 (major resistance)
If TSLA maintains its bullish momentum and decisively breaks through the $373.04 resistance with substantial volume, it could be on track for a significant rally toward $414.50. However, investors should remain vigilant, as the stock's current price is below key moving averages, and market conditions can change rapidly. Implementing a stop-loss at $249.99 is advisable to manage potential downside risks.
NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla LongTesla is looking to retest the 274 level it broke out from. If 238 doesn't break it will make a newer all time high.
TSLA Technical Analysis – Reversal in Progress?Market Structure & Key Levels
* Current Price: $278.53
* Support: $265, $250
* Resistance: $292.5, $300, $310
TSLA has recently rebounded from a demand zone around $265, showing early signs of a potential reversal. Multiple Change of Character (ChoCH) shifts indicate a possible transition from a bearish to a bullish market structure.
Reversal Zone Analysis
TSLA has entered a potential reversal zone between $278 - $292.5. If price sustains above $278, upside momentum toward $300 and $310 could unfold. A failure to hold $278 could send it back to retest the $265 support level.
Options & GEX Analysis
* IVR: 84.1
* IVx Avg: 80.3
* GEX: Green (bullish positioning)
* Put Walls: $265, $250
* Call Walls: $292.5, $300, $310
Options flow indicates bullish sentiment, with increasing call interest above $292.5 and strong put support at $265.
Trading Plan & Strategy
Bullish Scenario (Preferred)
* Entry: Above $278 with strong volume confirmation
* Target: $292.5, then $300
* Stop-Loss: Below $272
Bearish Scenario (Less Likely)
* Entry: If price rejects the $292.5 - $300 zone
* Target: $265
* Stop-Loss: Above $295
Options Trade Idea
* Bull Call Spread: Buy $280 Calls, Sell $300 Calls (April Expiry)
* Credit Put Spread: Sell $270 Puts, Buy $260 Puts
Final Thoughts
TSLA is showing early signs of a reversal, but needs to hold above $278 for confirmation. Watch for strength toward $292.5 and $300. If price struggles at resistance, a retest of $265 is possible.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Please do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Tesla Impulse Wave DownRecent action of TSLA appears to be an Elliott Impulse wave. If so, this could mean more downside action. The most likely first downside target is in the 185 area. So far daily RSI is only marginally into the oversold zone. Please note the extremes RSI reached before a turn happened. MACD has only a small bullish divergence which also implies more downside action.
TSLA has moved below its 200 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA). If there’s a rally up to or just above the 200 – day SMA it could be just a correction within a larger decline.
If there’s a drop after hitting or briefly moving above the 200 – day line it could the beginning of another down move.
TSLA: Buy ideaOn TSLA high probability of buying after the bounce on the support line as you can see on the chart.
Tesla $TSLA No Bull Run until 2027? (March 5, 2025)In this video, I go over the possibility of Tesla not starting its next major bull run until January 2027
Bulls struggling to hold major trend support, is it over?boost and follow for more ❤️🔥unfortunately tesla is breaking some major pivot level and trend support.. but there is the last line of support around 280 @ the 200 SMA
if we can hold that then this could all be a big short trap before the next big Tesla rally.. 🚀
lets see what happens, good luck to everyone.. see you soon with more 💪
MORE BAD NEWS OR NO?Since the Robotaxi event on October 11th, Tesla is up 38% , currently priced at $292 per share This is a return to the early November 2024 price level. But following the market correction over the last month, TSLA shares are down 23%.
This was somewhat expected, given that the Trump-Musk alliance boosted TSLA stock in the short-term, which now fizzled out. The political exposure is also a double-edged sword, which ends up impacting Tesla EV sales.
With protest going up on Elon musk we may see it go down a little ... and investors may view TESLA stock as highly speculative. However if 330 breaks we may see it rise up from there..
TESLATesla is getting ready for buys, buyers are not in yet but we will see some strength coming soon.
Tesla (SHORT)I am thinking its going down to the Strong pressure area under it and also with the negative and controversial things going around with Tesla its not impossible and probably good idea. Give me some of your ideas
A Clear Target for Tesla?If Tesla breaks the small white descending trendline, its first target could be to test the main trendline. Monday’s price action should be watched closely, as a false breakout is possible. However, if the small trend is successfully broken, Tesla could see a 10% upward move before hitting the main trendline.
If the price reaches the main wave and manages to break through, a new all-time high (ATH) could be on the horizon. 🚀
the MA200 looks very enticing, considering consolidationMany indicators could factor in, but surprisingly enough, it's found an area where it can make a move at the bottom of the barrel. Fundamentals are ready to reboot; a critical note is the 200. Now, a favorite of many hedge funds, everyone focuses on it and could consolidate here for a while before the breakout.
Two Dips I'm Watching After The CrashThe market took a beating over the last two weeks or so. Everything except for a few defensive sectors was hit hard. After all the selling, I am looking around and asking: where are some dip buys? I've come up with a list of a few names, but for this chart specifically, I have zoned in on two different companies of industry and size: TSLA and FIVN.
I'll start with Tesla (TSLA):
They are down just over 47% from their recent highs. This all transpired over the course of a few months, but it really accelerated over the last few days. I find this drop to be rather remarkable considering Tesla's latest products and upcoming releases. Nevertheless, this comes with challenges, including sales in a country like China and other fundamental factors. Tracking their cash flows and progress toward operational efficiencies is crucial.
Tesla is down 45% in this correction—nearly half of its value gone.
I have never owned NASDAQ:TSLA long-term. I have surely traded and covered it, especially when it first broke out during its epic short squeeze.
Maybe, just maybe, I might have a chance to get in at decent levels.
Now, let's talk about Five9 (FIVN).
Five9 builds and deploys customer management platforms so companies of all sizes can manage their massive user bases. They can use tools across all industries and verticals, and most importantly, it can sync with CRM platforms and AI models to feed it contextual data to make faster decisions.
Just recently, Five9 reported a fairly massive earnings beat, which lead to a spike. Sadly for them, the market crash started and the entire sector tanked. It's now dropped nearly 40% from its highs. At these levels, Five9 could be an interesting rebound candidate either for a swing trade to retrace part of the move.
Quick note: this entire industry has my attention from companies like NICE and others as they are essential to an organization—almost like a staple similar to VZ or T—simply because they power core components of the communication process. You can't just turn off messaging for you and your clients. New-age communications currently fill up my watchlist. I'll make a list soon.
Now, let's see if and when this sell-off ever ends. For now, I am making a list of possible dip buys.
Bounce or Sustained Rally-Either will be Sufficient Tesla chart on weekly and daily timeframe. Bounce is likely incoming, at best a sustained rally.
Tesla (TSLA) at a Critical Level! Will This Bounce or Break Down📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
1. Trend & Structure:
* TSLA remains in a clear downtrend, confirmed by multiple BOS (Break of Structure) signals.
* Recent ChoCH (Change of Character) suggests a temporary range-bound phase before further downside or a potential reversal.
* Key Resistance: ~290-300 (prior BQS level)
* Support Zone: ~273-275 (critical liquidity zone)
2. Indicators:
* MACD & Stochastics show weakness, confirming bearish momentum.
* Volume spikes suggest institutional interest, but it's mainly on down moves, reinforcing bearish bias.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
1. Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
* 300-310: Heavy resistance, potential rejections.
* 350: Second major call wall, unlikely to reach unless a strong rally occurs.
2. Put Walls (Support) 🛑
* 270: Strong put wall, may act as a floor for a potential bounce.
* 250: Highest negative NETGEX, which means a gamma squeeze could push TSLA further down if this level breaks.
3. IV Rank & Skew:
* IVR 89.7, indicating high implied volatility.
* IV skew positive, meaning puts are being favored over calls.
* Calls only 21.8%, suggesting market bias is bearish.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
* Bullish Scenario:
* A reclaim above 290-300 could trigger a short squeeze toward 310-315.
* Calls or spreads with April expiry could benefit from a bounce.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Breakdown below 270 could open a flush to 250, where puts would see exponential gains.
* Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 270P or 260P targeting 250-260.
⚠️ Key Warning: If TSLA holds 270, a sharp bounce is possible due to put covering.
🔥 Conclusion: Big Move Coming for TSLA!
Tesla is trapped between strong put support (270) and overhead resistance (290-300). The next few sessions will decide if this bounces or heads straight to 250. Options flow favors downside, but gamma unwinding could cause short-term reversals.
Watch price action carefully before making a move! 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
Long Tsla at 240.10Target at 358.91 based on my calculations on Mayer and Fibo (yet studying how to build this script to trading view
TSLAIt is currently completing wave C of the flat pattern. Soon, with the completion of wave C, I also expect the start of wave 5.
TSLA Potential Bullish Bat PatternOn the daily chart, TSLA has recently fluctuated and fallen, and the bears have the upper hand. The current downside target can pay attention to the previous demand area of 246.6-255.3. After reaching it, you can pay attention to the potential bullish bat pattern, and the buying position is around 243.2.
Tesla Stock Analysis: Finding Support at $172?I stare at the chart, tracing my finger along the screen, connecting the dots—the 2020 low, the 2024 low. A rising trendline emerges, like a bridge between two cliffs, steady but not invincible.
So here we are. $172. That’s where the trendline whispers support. But is it really support, or just an illusion we want to believe in?
The Logic Behind the Line
Drawing a trendline isn’t just some artistic endeavor; it’s about psychology, repetition, and history. If enough traders see it, believe it, and act on it, then it becomes real. That’s the paradox of technical analysis. The trendline at $172? It’s not just a number—it’s where fear meets hope, where buyers might show up to defend Tesla.
But then again, what if this time is different?
Macro and Tesla-Specific Concerns
Tesla is no longer the untouchable, high-growth behemoth it once was. EV competition is intensifying, interest rates are still squeezing consumer financing, and let’s be honest—Elon’s distractions (from X to AI) don’t exactly scream "full focus on Tesla." Investors hate uncertainty, and right now, Tesla has plenty of it.
Then there's the earnings slowdown. Margins are under pressure. Price cuts have fueled demand, but at what cost? If Tesla can’t maintain its high-profit margins, the stock might deserve a lower multiple. The market isn’t rewarding growth-at-all-costs anymore—it wants efficiency, profitability, and stability.
And let’s talk about the market itself. The S&P 500 has been on a historic run, and if it corrects, Tesla—being a high-beta stock—will likely get hit harder. Tech stocks aren’t flying as they did in 2020-2021. The Fed isn’t cutting rates aggressively, at least not yet. So, does Tesla hold the line at $172, or do we see an inevitable flush lower before real buyers step in?
What’s the Play?
Alright, let’s assume Tesla does test $172. What happens then? A bounce? Sure, it could. But a strong bounce? That’s the real question. If buying pressure isn’t convincing, if volume isn’t there, then support is just a temporary floor before another leg down.
If $172 doesn’t hold, where’s the next stop? I’d be looking at $150, maybe even the psychological $140 level. That’s where things get really interesting—where long-term bulls either double down or panic sets in.
But let’s flip the script. What if Tesla does hold here? What if it bounces, regains momentum, and starts reclaiming key moving averages? Then suddenly, we’re back in play for $200, $220, maybe even beyond.
The Bottom Line
I’m watching $172 like a hawk. If it holds with conviction, I might take a shot. If it doesn’t, I’ll wait. No need to be a hero.
One thing I’ve learned in this game? The market doesn’t care about my lines. It cares about liquidity, sentiment, and the bigger picture. And right now, Tesla is at a crossroads.
Time to see which way it moves.
