Quantum's TSLA Trading Guide 4/13/25Sentiment: Neutral. EV and AI optimism persists, but tariff risks and high valuation concern traders. Chatter split—bulls eye robotaxi, bears see pullback.
Outlook: Neutral, slightly bearish. Options pin $250, with $240 puts active. ICT/SMT eyes $245-$250 buys to $260 if $245 holds. Bearish below $245 risks $240.
Influential News:
Federal Reserve: Two 2025 cuts support growth stocks, positive for $TSLA.
Earnings: Q1 due late April; no update today.
Chatter: Debates tariff impact vs. AI/EV growth.
Mergers and Acquisitions: None; focus on internal projects.
Other: Tariff volatility hit NASDAQ:TSLA ; stock swung (April 3-9).
Indicators:
Weekly:
RSI: ~50 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~45 (neutral).
MFI: ~40 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs signal weakness.
Daily:
RSI: ~48 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~50 (neutral).
MFI: ~45 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, bearish SMAs suggest pullback.
Hourly:
RSI: ~45 (neutral).
Stochastic: ~55 (neutral).
MFI: ~50 (neutral).
SMAs: 10-day ~$255 (below, bearish), 20-day ~$260 (below, bearish).
Interpretation: Neutral, stabilizing.
Price Context: $252.31, 1M: +1%, 1Y: +38%. Range $240-$270, testing $250 support.
Options Positioning (May 2025):
Volume:
Calls: $260 (15,000, 60% ask), $270 (12,000, 55% ask). Mild bullish bets.
Puts: $240 (10,000, 70% bid), $245 (8,000, 65% bid). Put selling supports $245.
Open Interest:
Calls: $260 (40,000, +7,000), $270 (30,000, +5,000). Bullish interest.
Puts: $240 (25,000, flat), $245 (28,000, +4,000). Hedging. Put-call ~1.0.
IV Skew:
Calls: $260 (40%), $270 (42%, up 3%). $270 IV rise shows upside hope.
Puts: $240 (35%, down 2%), $245 (36%). Falling $240 IV supports floor.
Probability: 60% $240-$270, 20% <$240.
Karsan’s Interpretation:
Vanna: Neutral (~300k shares/1% IV). IV drop could pressure $250.
Charm: Neutral (~150k shares/day). Pins $250.
GEX: +50,000. Stabilizes range.
DEX: +7M shares, neutral.
Karsan view: GEX holds $240-$270; tariff news key.
ICT/SMT Analysis:
Weekly: Neutral, $240 support, $270 resistance. No $TSLA/ NYSE:NIO divergence.
Daily: Bullish at $250 FVG, targets $260. Bearish < $245.
1-Hour: Bullish >$250, $260 target. MSS at $245.
10-Minute: OTE ($249-$251, $250) for buys, NY AM.
Trade Idea:
Bullish: 50%. ICT/SMT buys $245-$250 to $260. Options show $260 calls. Fed cuts aid.
Neutral: 35%. RSI (~50), SMAs (bearish), $240-$270 range.
Bearish: 15%. Below $240 possible with tariffs. $240 put volume grows.