How Tesla Stock Rebounded Back to Green After 40% Loss in 2024EV king powered higher over the past couple months, charged on hopes of returning growth even as returning growth is nowhere to be seen. But does it matter? Let’s find out.
Tesla Erases 40% Drop in Electrifying Rally
Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA ) is on a tear. A powerful comeback has shut the haters’ mouths as the electric-car maker is up about 80% from its 2024 nadir back in April. In other words, more than $350 billion have been added to Tesla’s market cap in the span of a couple months.
What’s driving the electrifying charge in the popular auto maker, arguably the most popular ? It’s a bunch of factors. But more than anything, it’s investors’ big expectations over returning growth after the car company’s shares were begging to be scooped up by bargain hunters.
Tesla stock had slumped about 40% on the year through late April while other big tech giants were busy logging records and getting AI drunk. Take Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) or Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ). Or any of the Magnificent Seven members. They’ve all been celebrated over prospects of artificial intelligence-driven gains.
The apparent disconnect between Tesla and the rest of the Mag 7 crew is no longer there. After stringing up a winning streak of eight straight days of winnings through Friday, Tesla shares managed to reel out of their deep 2024 losses and move in the green by about 1%.
Deliveries Fuel Investors’ Long Bets
Better-than-expected delivery figures underpinned the recent leg up. The Elon Musk-led company shipped 443,956 vehicles globally in the three months ended June, a 4.8% decline from the same quarter last year. And while this drop, the second one in a row, indicated that the business of deliveries didn’t grow, investors got excited about the consensus-beating numbers. Analysts anticipated 439,302 delivered units. It was also better than the first-quarter delivery figure of 386,810 .
Optimism about artificial intelligence is also a key factor in steering the share price higher. It’s worth mentioning that Tesla, which recently started churning out profits , has decreased its production rate and manufactured about 411,000 vehicles in the last quarter. Lower production count translates to lower inventories, reduced costs and less pressure to cut prices in order to get rid of cars gathering dust in factories.
All that means the company could splurge some cash on other projects in the pipeline and a refresh of existing ones.
Elon Musk + AI + Promises = Profits???
The advance of robots and AI-powered assistants is among the top priorities for Elon Musk. Tesla’s second-generation humanoid robot Optimus debuted last week at Shanghai’s 2024 World AI Conference. First released in 2021, Optimus was designed as an everyday AI assistant to help out with things like carrying stuff, cleaning up and cooking. Before it’s launched to the public, Tesla plans to test it out in its factories starting in early 2025.
To this, Elon Musk had only one thing to do — slam the short sellers and send them into “obliteration.”
”Once Tesla fully solves autonomy and has Optimus in volume production,” Musk wrote on X, “anyone still holding a short position will be obliterated.” He went further to call out one specific Tesla permabear — Bill Gates .
Buyer Beware!
Now on to some concerning reality checks that can make you think twice before plowing your hard-earned money into the EV maker. Tesla’s fleet of vehicles is aging badly. The Model Y is just about to pop the confetti for its fifth birthday. A lack of innovation into Tesla’s best-selling models may strip some of the company’s brand recognition for slick-looking, ultra-modern EVs.
What’s more, Tesla faces fierce competition from the East. China’s biggest maker of electric cars BYD (ticker: 1211 ), sold a record number of electric and hybrid cars in the last quarter. And it’s threatening to overtake Tesla as the world’s top EV manufacturer.
In June, Tesla’s market share in China dwindled by a worrying 24% from a year ago while the broader sales numbers went up thanks to the rollout of cheaper EV alternatives. BYD’s sales rose 24% in the second quarter to 426,039 EVs.
We Want to Hear from You
Can Tesla continue its run and keep the profits flowing to fund its risky bets on AI? Judging by the share price increase, investors seem to think so. What do you think?
Let us know in the comments below.
TSLA trade ideas
This could be a good time to go LONG on TslaIt has broken out of the weekly bearish trend chart. Let's wait for a nice retracement and starts going LONG......
TeslaPrice is moving up with steady volume growth. Now it is at trend line support and also it has formed an ascending triangle. 229 - 231 is the support as of now.
Buy above 232 with the stop loss of 230 for the targets 234, 236, 239 and 241.
Sell below 226 with the stop loss of 228 for the targets 224, 222 and 220.
220 will act as a support.
Hit the like button to Rock !! Show some energy !!
Note : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
You are responsible for whatever you do.
Tesla (TSLA): Expecting a Pullback Before the Next RiseIn our livestream a few days ago, we talked about the impressive rise in Tesla's stock. Since our last analysis on June 13th, the stock has jumped 38% in just 19 days. This was somewhat expected because there was a lot of negative sentiment towards Tesla, which often leads to a significant rise. Congratulations to everyone who believed in Tesla with us. Our position is currently profitable, and the stock looks very strong.
Current Situation:
The current situation shows that Tesla has risen 40 % in less than 25 days, even though there was a lot of negative sentiment. The stock is very strong right now, but a pullback is likely. We think the stock could go up to $256, finishing the sub-wave 3. After hitting this level, we expect a Wave 4 correction, which will give us a chance to make more entries.
Strategy:
We plan to enter between $217 and $200. We will set the stop-loss at about $198 to protect against a failed Wave 4 scenario. Our strategy involves expecting the Wave 4 correction to close follow-up gaps and retest important levels. Even though the performance is strong, we should be careful as this could still be a temporary rise before another drop (a dead cat bounce).
In conclusion, Tesla has shown impressive strength, but we expect a pullback before it goes up further. We are targeting the $256 level for the completion of Wave 3 and plan to enter more between $217 and $200, with a stop-loss at $198. We remain cautiously optimistic and will keep a close eye on the situation.
Log scale BullishThis zone we've been in since January 2021 is going to look like the flat spot on most of your charts. You need to view it on a logarithmic scale to really appreciate the market structure.
Tesla7.8.241 of my students asked me if you could short Tesla... and my answer was you don't want to short it right now. I know a lot of Traders would take that short and we may find out in the next day or two that that would have been a fantastic trade to Short. but there were no sellers when he asked about shorting the market and that presents a problem fo..r me because I want to see some buyers not know buyers or I can't short the market... and the tools I use for that reversal are 2 bar reversals and if I want to short it I want to 2 bar reversal that goes lower but if I want to go long I wait for 2 bar reversal to go higher..... I always or almost always with some exceptions wait for the 2 bar reversal in the direction I want to trade. I don't know if it should be called the 2 bar reversal.... I don't know what other people do or how they look at the market when I'm looking at a toolbar reversal..... I threw all my books away every year I'd have a whole batch of trading books and I would take him to the nearby library when it was closed and I would dump pounds and pounds of books into the bin outside the library because if I went inside the Library they wouldn't take my books because I had too many..... I don't like throwing books away so I gave it to the library in case they use some of them for people who are looking to trade the markets. I know the 2 bar reversals work. I know that the market can provide a 2-bar reversal to go lower and in another few hours it can reverse and have a 2 bar reversal going higher..... and some people might say that's a waste of time... but if you understand the context of a market that's oversold or the concept of gaps that are being filled or not being filled and then you add a few other indicators like using 382 we're looking at Fibonacci extensions and understanding support and resistance and understanding expansion and contraction of markets two by reversals are very effective and a lot of the problems you could have with 2 bar reversals aren't problems if you understand how markets move, and all you need to do is draw some simple lines and be patient and you'll find the trade.
230 in the coming weeks before earningsStill fully overbought and still maximizing opportunity with a green finish in the past two weeks, today's selling-off action, inverse to buying from a sell-off in the previous session, seems like it will have a few red days and then start consolidating. 230 is very realistic.
Visualize $TSLA CALL pricing skew due to the upcoming earningsLet’s take a look at our new tradingview options screener indicator to see what we observe, as the options chain data has recently been updated.
When we look at the screener, we can immediately see that NASDAQ:TSLA has an exceptional Implied Volatility Rank value of over 100, which is extremely high. This is clearly due to the upcoming earnings report on July 23rd.
As we proceed, we notice that Tesla's Implied Volatility Index is also high, over 70. This means that not only the relative but also the absolute implied volatility of Tesla is high. Because the IVX value is above 30, Tesla’s IV Rank is displayed with a distinguishable black background. This favors credit strategies such as iron condors, broken wing butterflies, strangles, or simple short options.
Next, let’s examine how this IV index value has changed over the past five days. We can see it has increased by more than 6%, indicating an upward trend as we approach the earnings report.
In the next cell, we see a significant vertical price skew. Specifically, at 39 days to expiration, call options are 84% more expensive than put options at the same distance. This indicates that market participants are pricing in a significant upward movement in the options chain.
The call skew is so pronounced that at 39 days to expiration, the 16 delta call value exits the expected range. This signifies a substantial delta skew twist, which I will show you visually.
We see a horizontal IV index skew between the third and fourth weeks in the options chain. This means the front weekly IVX is lower than the IVX for the following week, which may favor calendar or diagonal strategies. Hovering over this with the mouse reveals it’s around the third and fourth week.
In the last cell, we observe that there’s a horizontal IVX skew not just in weekly expirations but also between the second and third monthly expirations.
Now, let’s see how these values appear visually on Tesla’s chart using our Options Overlay Indicator. On the right panel, the previously mentioned values are displayed in more detail when you hover over them with the mouse. The really exciting part is setting the 16 delta curve and seeing the extent of the upward shift in options pricing. This significant skew is also visible at closer delta values.
When we enable the expected move and standard deviation curves, it immediately becomes clear what this severe vertical pricing skew in favor of call options means. Practically, market participants are significantly pricing in upward movement right after the earnings report.
Hovering over the colored labels associated with the expirations displays all data precisely, showing the number of days until expiration and the high implied volatility index value for that expiration. Additionally, a green curve indicating overpricing due to extra interest is displayed. Weekly expiration horizontal IVX skew values appear in purple, and those affected by monthly skew are shown in turquoise blue.
The 'Lite' version of our indicators is available for free to everyone, where you can also view Tesla as demonstrated. Pro indicators are available more than 150 US market symbols like SPY, S&P500, Nvidia, bonds, etfs and many others.
Trade options like a pro with TanukiTrade Option Indicators for TradingView.
Thank you for your attention.
Tesla - Finally exiting consolidation...NASDAQ:TSLA has been consolidating for four years and is ready for a (bullish) breakout.
We have a beautiful repetition of cycles on Tesla: Long term consolidation followed by a qiuck and agressive move higher followed once again by a long term consolidation. Tesla entered such a consolidation about four years ago and is now simply ready for another bullish breakout and an agressive move higher. It is just a matter of time until the triangle pattern breaks...
Levels to watch: $120, $220
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
DON'T SLEEP ON TSLA ON A THURSDAY or you might miss out on the runup to 191.
Potentially higher, but likely into next week.
154 is looking likely should we break under trend.
Basically per this chart, either tesla is ready to make a move to the upside, and it looks like a quick move pre earnings.
If TSLA drops today into that support zone, it can trigger a run up to 184, and then possible 191.
Hard to say exactly when or if it even hits 167.99, but at some point during a move like that, if it should occur, there will be time to grab some options and make a few decent trades. Depending on your style.
If you're just investing to hold long, you want to buy pretty much sub 169.
Lowest price I see atm is 109, but it might actually hold the levels at the 150 range.
Good luck!!
DON'T SLEEP ON TESLA ON A... WELL, NEVER SLEEP AGAIN. TSLA 420.
ALRIGHT, LET'S TRY THIS AGAIN.
Tesla has a cool trend setup, retracement setup and indicator alignment into earnings.
A REALLY STEEP DROP from earnings, past 134 and all the way down to around 96, could trigger a nice move to the upside that you won't want to miss.
I know, TSLA to 74 or 30 or 10 (it's garbage).
Well, no, I disagree. At least in the short term. After it runs up again, I could easily see it back down to some low numbers.
But right now, heading into earnings, a big move is showing that looks very similar to what I've shown.
My line, expect it to be inaccurate, instead focus on the price targets.
At 175.01 = full bull to the moon 238k miles, maybe overshoots that.
There will be retracements, but if this move is based around btc, it could be FAST.
So, probably best to never sleep again, and watch the tsla chart 24/7.
RSI technically bearish, but they all look like they are about to flip, BUT they haven't yet, so we can't assume. We have to keep the projection based on charts, which says, if 134 holds and we get over 175 with stability, then green light, probably.
If earnings crashes price to under $100 for a brief amount of time, you probably want to yolo the dip. Calls would be very cheap at that point, and if you're bullish in any way, even if it's not to my numbers bullish, then it's still probably free money.
I won't be upset should you disagree, feel free.
And I look forward to your rubbing of profits in my face, should you be correct.
Truthfully, I'd like to see everyone make a ton, no matter what your opinion is (bear/bull).
LOTS OF MOVEMENT to trade in two directions.
Things don't go up forever, things don't go down forever, and if they do, it would be an outlier to most market movements.
Good luck!!
SOME FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH:
1. **Tesla Fundamentals**:
- Tesla, the electric vehicle (EV) company founded by Elon Musk, has seen remarkable growth in recent years. Their fundamentals include strong demand for EVs, innovative technology, and a charismatic CEO who captures public attention.
- However, Tesla's financials have been volatile due to high R&D costs, production challenges, and regulatory hurdles. Despite this, their stock price has surged, making them one of the most valuable automakers globally.
2. **Bitcoin and Dogecoin Investments**:
- Tesla made headlines when it disclosed a $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin. This move signaled institutional interest in cryptocurrencies.
- Elon Musk's tweets and actions have influenced crypto markets. Tesla's investment in Bitcoin adds legitimacy to the asset class.
- As for Dogecoin, Tesla has not officially invested in it. However, Musk's tweets and memes have boosted Dogecoin's popularity. It's important to note that Dogecoin is highly speculative and lacks fundamental value¹.
3. **Software Subscription vs. Hardware Sales**:
- Morgan Stanley believes Tesla could make more money from software subscriptions than hardware sales. Tesla's vehicles are equipped with advanced software features (Autopilot, Full Self-Driving) that can be unlocked via subscription.
- By offering software upgrades, Tesla can generate recurring revenue. This model aligns with the trend toward software-defined vehicles².
4. **Data Collection and Auto Driving**:
- Tesla collects vast amounts of data from its vehicles, especially those equipped with Autopilot. This data helps improve autonomous driving algorithms.
- Tesla's fleet provides real-world data for training AI models, giving them a competitive edge in self-driving technology.
- Monetizing this data could be lucrative. Tesla could license it to other companies or use it for targeted advertising.
5. **Leasing Software vs. Selling Cars**:
- Leasing software (e.g., Full Self-Driving subscription) allows Tesla to generate ongoing revenue without selling additional hardware.
- Traditional automakers rely on upfront car sales, which can lead to debt if demand fluctuates.
- Tesla's approach disrupts the industry by emphasizing software and services over traditional car sales.
In summary, Tesla's fundamentals, crypto investments, software subscriptions, data collection, and unique business model contribute to its success and potential for future growth. However, risks remain, and the EV landscape is evolving rapidly. Other automakers are also adapting to these changes, but Tesla's early lead gives it a competitive advantage¹². 🚗💡📈
Source: Conversation with Bing, 4/22/2024
(1) Tesla, Dogecoin & Institutional Interest: A Data Perspective by .... coinmarketcap.com
(2) Tesla (TSLA) could make more money from software subscription than .... electrek.co
(3) Dogecoin | Tesla Support. www.tesla.com
Tesla bears be excited >> (-20%?) Tesla, come on, you just paid Elon musk so much money. What is exactly worth +50% in a month? In addition to what you see technically from what I outlined, I think the entire market is due for a correction. Given tesla's beta relative to the market, I anticipate at least 20% retracement from 260 towards 210 maybe 230. Ill be updating this as it changes.
Pro Setups for Swing Trading Ahead of News: TSLANASDAQ:TSLA had a velocity run on the release of its production update for Q2. Velocity runs have gaps between candles which do not overlap. It is a run of enormous speculation to gambling mode and the professionals are taking advantage of it. Notice the pro trader setup candle patterns prior to the retail side getting the news.
TSLA: It's a clear break outWith a new weekly green candle above trend line, there's no more speculation from a technical standpoint.
Don't be a Negative Nancy
Much love 💕
TSLA hits golden fibTSLA despite a bearish chart has decided to pump about 100$ in less than ten days. Many covered-call sellers are very underwater on this stock. I myself was caught on this and had to pay extra premium to close the position a while back when it broke this resistance. Despite falling fundamentals the stock is over 100 PE. This fib from my experience trading very volatile assets is usually a VERY strong rejection zone, this happened on many of my high momentum altcoins including RNDR & INJ, that is how I knew to take profits last time.
