UBERD trade ideas
Will Uber Ends its Correction and Begin a Reversal?NYSE:UBER seems to be in the last leg E of the expanding triangle ABCDE of the bigger wave (Y) . I expect a bounce from the level 29.25 and we will see if it is the beginning of the impulse wave (3) in the bigger frame or it will continue its correction.
Uber fortune tellingCan assume non-existent price data to fit patterns to current prices? If so, can we reduce our risk when we do it? Here’s one such possibility of fitting a pattern to Uber’s price based on a hypothetical ABC correction starting at about $82. I’ve aligned the pattern to the hypothetical wave C.
If true, then we should buy Uber between 29.94 and 26.17. This model becomes invalid the longer that price remains under $23.48 if price drops below $23.48.
Take note that if this model is valid, price could only go up from here.
UBER Down or UpUber lose this level then 28 will be a key support , not holding that will lead to a massive drop BUT is we can bounce from here , still a chance for a bull flag break out - Target 40's
UBER Support Bounce$UBER currently at a strong support zone. Looking for $UBER to bounce back to $34. UBER
$UBER running a range$UBER has been bouncing between 29 and 34 since the beginning of June. We are nearing the support of this range, so we could naturally expect a bounce. If we do not hold support, the next levels are marked on the chart.
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UBER UPDATEHi traders .. as you see in chart we have now new momentom at 29.79 >> so that I changed my analys from short to long >> and I prefare to wait for price action then buy >> good luck .
And please if you agree with me support me by pressing (( like )) >> my regards.
UBER possible Positive DivergenceThere is a possible positive divergence on the 15 Mins chart for UBER, we need the confirmation of the resistance line on the RSI indicator. If the stock is able to break this resistance we can go LONG
UBER earnings expect down 8% and can/will go back upThis is all intuitively done and I'm journaling for earnings plays.
$UBER 1h/30m- After bear flag break, clear selling volume selling drying up
- rounding bottom reversal pattern
- pick in volume to the upside
- coming into volume shelf
- 30 minute wick has some down side selling pressure into the volume shelf
THE WEEK AHEAD: LYFT, UAL, MGM, DAL, CNX, SLV, GDXJEARNINGS:
LYFT (20/82/19.8%) announces earnings on Wednesday after the close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session if you want to play the volatility contraction.
Pictured here is a directionally neutral 29/38 short strangle camped out at the 20 delta in the September monthly. Paying 1.26 as of Friday close, it has 27.74/39.26 break evens, which are wide of 2 times the expected move on the call side, but somewhat short of 2 times on the put side due to skew; delta/theta .25/3.58.
You'll have to go somewhat tighter (the 25 delta) to get one-third the width out of an iron condor, with the 27/30/37/40 iron condor paying .97; 29.03/37.97 break evens, which are at the expected move on both sides; delta/theta 2/1.31.
I've stuck on an UBER line just to show how LYFT's competitor did with its earnings in the coronavirus environment ... .
CSCO (28/36/8.4%) also announces, but has less than ideal metrics for a volatility contraction play.
EARNINGS AFTERGLOW:
There are a number of underlyings with earnings in the rear view that still have sufficient implied to potentially make them worthwhile just as pure premium selling plays. Here are a number of them, ranked by the percentage that the September at-the-money short straddle is paying relative to stock price and screened for those paying greater than 15%:
UAL: 20.8%
MGM: 17.7%
DAL: 17.7%
CNX: 17.6%
WYNN: 16.9%
PINS: 16.1%
ROKU: 16.0%
BYND: 15.8%
SNAP: 15.7%
BA: 15.3%
SQ: 15.2%
AMD: 15.1%
LUV: 15.1%
I may pick one or more of these if I have nothing better to do, keeping in mind correlations here (i.e., UAL, DAL, and LUV are all airlines; BA is airline-related).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS, RANKED BY SEPTEMBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE/STOCK PRICE RATIO AND SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED:
SLV (70/81/19.9%)
GDXJ (24/62/15.6%)
GDX (24/43/12.8%)
XOP (11/48/12.7%)
EWZ (18/43/11.2%)
Here, I've screened out those paying <10%. I'm in an August GDXJ play, but may re-up with a SLV, even though there is going to be some correlation with miners. The September 18th 20 delta 22/36 short strangle was paying 1.45 as of Friday close, with the 25 delta 20/23/33.5/36 iron condor paying .99. There is some massive call side skew to potentially accommodate here, so could see going "double double" (double the contracts on the put side, but double the width on the call).
Two Examples: September 18th 2 x 18/2 x 20.5/33/38 "double double" iron condor, paying .98 or September 18th 2 x 15.5/2 x 25.5/33.5/44 "double double", paying 1.30, the latter of which approaches the metrics of the naked short strangle.
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
Most of the fun has bled out ... :
IWM (25/30/7.3%)
QQQ (25/28/7.2%)
EFA (17/21/4.8%)
SPY (15/22/5.1%)
UBER Technical AnalysisPrices are moving inside a channel.
The idea is to hold. A very risky option is to go short for a short term investment before going long for a long term investment.
Uber is still a buyThe stock only gave up the move from the last 2 days. On the weekly timeframe, the bulls just took made a statement. Lets' see if they follow through next week.
Uber going into earingsThe set up looks incredible for the next leg up. Might break past its ipo offering price on todays results
