UPST - May be giving us a second chanceI'm a fan of this company long term which is why these low prices appeal to me. Will forsure be looking for some signs of tapering prior to reloading on my position here in here.
Happy Trading :)
UPST trade ideas
UPST chart update/trade review 🔭boost and follow for more! ❤️🔥 yesterday I took a long near low of day.. why? well the trend support zone and consistent consolidation near or at the support zone which always lead to upside in the near future.
I pointed out every time I saw it happen in recent history, one of my best day trades in a while! 300%+ on weekly calls in a few hours.
now we watch for a trend resistance/long trigger break, if that can come then my upside targets should hit pretty quick ⚡
Upstart Holdings, Inc. Announced Financial Result for Q1 2024Upstart Holdings, Inc., ( NASDAQ:UPST ) the leading AI lending marketplace, has announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 ended March 31, 2024. The company reported a 24% increase in revenue to $128 million, while total fee revenue increased 18% year-over-year. Transaction volume and conversion rate reached $1.1 billion across the platform, up 13% from the previous year. Income from operations was $67.5 million, up from $131.8 million in the same quarter. Net income and EPS increased by 64.6% and 27.2%, respectively. Contribution profit reached $81.1 million in Q1, up 20% year-over-year, with a contribution margin of 59%. Adjusted EBITDA was $20.3 million, up from $31.1 million in Q1 2021.
Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue of approximately $125 million in Q2, revenue from fees of around $135 million, net interest income of $10 million, contribution margin of 56%, net income of $75 million, adjusted net income of 36 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $25 million. For the second half of 2024, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) expects revenue from fees of $300 million, and positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter.
The company has not reconciled forward-looking non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP measures due to potential variability and uncertainty in future costs and expenses. Key operating metrics and non-GAAP financial measures are described in the section titled "Key Operating Metrics" below. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial results as determined in accordance with GAAP are included at the end of this press release following the accompanying financial data.
Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ), an AI-powered lending platform, has been a key player in the market for loans, with the total addressable market (TAM) for annual loan originations reaching $3 trillion. The company's executives have expressed optimism about the future of the company, citing growing consumption and flat personal income rates as driving the need for lending solutions like Upstart's. They anticipate a return to sequential growth in the second half of the year and positive EBITDA by the end of the year, even in the current credit environment.
Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) earnings beat Wall Street expectations, but its forecast for the current quarter came up short compared to market sentiment. The company reported that 90% of loans were fully automated, and 91% of automated approvals converted to funded loans, which is 3x the conversion rate of non-automated loans. Average loan size was down due to robust growth in smaller dollar loans.
Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) revenue rose to $128 million, beating both Wall Street estimates and the company's own. The company's AI and machine learning lending solutions are powered by more than 1,600 variables, with models trained on over 65 million repayment events and adding an average of 82,000 new repayments each business day. With Upstart's AI lending marketplace, the company claims that lenders can approve more borrowers at lower APRs while simultaneously delivering a digital-first experience customers demand.
Technical Outlook
Despite beating world street expectations Upstart stock ( NASDAQ:UPST ) is down 5.56% with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 45.95 trading below the 200-day Moving Average (MA).
UPST Upstart Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold UPST before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPST Upstart Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.27.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
UPST short trade continuedThis zone is resistance on the 30 min chart. It should bounce off it to go to longer term targets of around $21.
UPST holdings short trendUPST has bounced perfectly from the short zone and should see the continuation of its trend down to the $21 area and below where it should start finding some support there.
UPST charted for 1Apr24Looking for a draw down to 24h CB (26)
Look for an hourly close above said CB, if so
then hold position up to 29 & cut half then let runners
run to PT = 31
UPST charted for 28MarWant to see either a pullback to the
top of the PotterBox or an open right
on top (27.63). Here, I'll take next week's 32c.
Be aware of a 27.30 retest. If there is lots of
volume breaking below 27.30, then look short.
UPST Ready for breakoutUPST forming Sym triangle patteren in daily chart.. i am expecting to break it on upper level
UPST (4Mar24)UPST is another play that I'm hyped about and that will remain on the WL until it gives me what I want. I've got weeklies open on this but if I need to stop out and reload, I'll do so.
UPST - 1000% seems far fetched. What about 100%?UPST - UpStart would have to move 1000% to get back to all-time highs. That is mind blowing. It is more reasonable to go 100% based on the chart. That is still mindblowing. We will see?
Bad earnings good opportunityThe market punished this one after earnings call. Price just landed on a support zone. Look how it went up from the trendline the last two times. Very aggressively. If you can to speculate open a small position. Or wait for a set in lower timeframes. I'll keep it in my watch list.
UPST Upstart Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought UPST before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of UPST Upstart Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-5-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Navigating the Peaks and Valleys of Upstart Amidst Q4 FY2023Upstart (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:UPST ) Aims to revolutionize the lending industry through the power of artificial intelligence, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) has garnered attention from both investors and industry insiders alike. However, its recent Q4 FY2023 earnings report has sparked a flurry of discussion and analysis, leaving investors pondering the next move. Let's delve into the depths of Upstart's performance and decipher the signals it sends to prospective investors.
Beating Expectations, Yet Missing the Mark
Upstart's Q4 FY2023 results undoubtedly showcased strength in certain areas. Surpassing Wall Street analysts' revenue projections by 3.7%, the company demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop. Moreover, the improvement in non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) from a loss of $0.25 to -$0.11 year-on-year signifies a concerted effort towards profitability.
However, the euphoria of surpassing revenue expectations was short-lived as attention turned towards the underwhelming quarterly guidance for Q1 2024. With projected revenue of $125 million, significantly below analyst estimates of $151.3 million, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) faces a daunting challenge ahead. The divergence between actual performance and projected outlook raises pertinent questions about the company's growth trajectory and ability to navigate the competitive fintech landscape.
Deciphering the Decline in Revenue and Its Implications
A closer examination of Upstart's ( NASDAQ:UPST ) revenue trajectory unveils a concerning trend. Over the past two years, the company has experienced a notable decline in revenue, plummeting from $304.8 million in Q4 FY2021 to $140.3 million in the latest quarter. While fluctuations in revenue are not uncommon in the fintech sphere, the magnitude of Upstart's decline warrants scrutiny.
Several factors may contribute to this decline, including increased competition, evolving consumer preferences, and regulatory challenges. As the lending landscape continues to evolve, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) must adapt its strategies to remain competitive and capture market share effectively.
Balancing Innovation with Prudence: The Path Forward for Upstart
Amidst the turbulence of Q4 FY2023 earnings, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) finds itself at a crossroads. The company's innovative AI-powered lending platform has garnered praise for its ability to assess credit risk effectively and expand access to credit. However, sustaining growth and profitability in a fiercely competitive environment requires more than just technological prowess.
Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) must strike a delicate balance between innovation and prudence, leveraging its technological capabilities while maintaining a disciplined approach to financial management. This entails optimizing operational efficiencies, diversifying revenue streams, and enhancing customer engagement initiatives.
Furthermore, transparent communication with investors is paramount in fostering trust and confidence amidst uncertainty. By providing clarity on strategic priorities, growth prospects, and risk mitigation strategies, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) can mitigate concerns and instill optimism among stakeholders.
Conclusion:
As investors weigh the implications of Upstart's Q4 FY2023 earnings, one thing remains clear: uncertainty looms large in the fintech landscape. While the company faces challenges on multiple fronts, including declining revenue and underwhelming guidance, opportunities for growth and innovation abound.
By embracing resilience and adaptability, Upstart can chart a course towards sustainable growth and long-term value creation. Through strategic investments in technology, talent, and market expansion, the company can solidify its position as a leading player in the fintech ecosystem.
As the dust settles on Q4 FY2023 earnings, investors must approach Upstart with a discerning eye, recognizing both its potential and its pitfalls. In navigating the peaks and valleys of Upstart's journey, informed decision-making and a steadfast commitment to long-term value creation will be the guiding principles for investors seeking to capitalize on the promise of fintech innovation.
UPSTARTI have put a sort of limit behind which you will have a total breakdown.
The stock capitulated since economic data were not great for its biz. They lend money so they lend more money when rates are low (cheap) not when they either go up or remain high.
Ichimoku and anchored Wvap show the base line under which .... bye bye.
Nevertheless is a great stock to trade for the braves.
This is not a financial advice due your own due diligence.
Bullish Outlook on Upstart Holdings (UPST)Technical analysis involves evaluating historical price action and volume patterns to predict future behavior. The technical analysis for UPST shows mixed signals. The stock price of UPST is below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which is typically a bearish signal. However, it is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, which are generally considered bullish signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is -0.9, suggesting a sell signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 49.69, indicating the stock is neither overbought nor oversold.
The entry point for the trade is $36.33, slightly above the last current price of $35.62. This could be based on the expectation that the stock will continue its upward trend. The exit point, or take profit point, is set at $39.54, which could be based on a resistance level or a calculated profit target. The stop loss is set at $35.26, slightly below the last current price, to limit potential losses if the stock price goes down. The total profit of $320.58 and total loss of $106.86 are likely calculated based on the number of shares to be traded and the difference between the entry point and the exit or stop loss points.
In conclusion, while the market sentiment is bullish and the technical analysis shows some positive signals, the fundamental analysis suggests caution. Therefore, this trade seems to be based on a short-term bullish view, with a clear plan to limit potential losses and take profits at a specific level.
Upstart Holdings could not cross resistanceDaily chart the Upstart Holdings stock is seeking a rebound level (wide zone 35 - 28)
Above resistance, the targets will be 50, then 58, and medium term target 72
MACD indicates correction
So, either new BUY entry at rebound or after crossing the resistance (GREEN) line
Possible trading opportunity A lot of bullish order flow coming in. Entering long on market open on Tuesday.
Please trade at your own risk. This is MY personal trade. I am posting this for educational purposes only.
Upstart UPST - 100% move? Rule of 72 accelerated?Portfolio Builders Club advocates for all people to build a self-directed Investment portfolio in addition to any managed or corporate led investment portfolio they may have.
The energy that accelerates results is compounding. No matter how much you gain from each investment the macro goal is to repeatedly 2X(double), 3X, 4X... your initial portfolio value. No matter if you are using the rule of 72 with compounding to determine the number of years to double your investment.
(72/ annual rate of return = number of years to double)
The glitch in the matrix: With the rule of 72, if the rate of return is over 72%, the time to double your money is less than a year. Of course 72% is not a double. This points out that we can remove time from the equation if we are looking for higher rates of return. Therefore, the power of compounding is accelerated by looking at return on investment in terms of cycles, instead of years. The question is: how frequent can we complete each cycle? How many cycles will our risk tolerance allow us to complete over time? Do we have the patience to allow the compounding to work?
******************************************
Example of Macro Compounding
No matter how long it takes to complete a cycle based on your rate of return.
Double investment in each cycle (100% return with compounding)
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Starting with $125 $1,250 $12,500 $125,000
Cycle 1 $250 $2,500 $25,000 $250,000
Cycle 2 $500 $5,000 $50,000 $500,000
Cycle 3 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 $1,000,000
Mind blown yet? Let's go further. Start with the lower investment Stage. Use the compounding cycles in that stage to build up to the next starting point for the next stage.
UPST CALL OPTION I've been watching UPST for a few weeks now and I am very bullish on this company. I entered a $40 C option which expires 2/16/2024. Major upside potential here to catch a significant move to highs made back in March 22'. Targeting the 38.2 Fib retracement as my key exit point.
UPST is reverse now to 140hello traders
UPST is already hit $70
after hit $70 it pull back to near 25
if break $ 70 it will touch $140
and intermediate tp is $90
Upstart Selected by MSC Union for Personal Lending
Shares of Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) charged sharply on Wednesday, climbing as much as 20.9%. When the market closed, the stock was still up 20.3%.
NASDAQ:UPST is trading above all of its Moving Averages reaching a new monthly High today. Without the stock Consolidating.
Mutual Security Credit Union (MSCU), a $390+ million financial institution serving the financial needs of western Connecticut, today announced its partnership with Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), the leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending marketplace, to provide personal loans to more people.
This is a significant vote of confidence for Upstart's AI-powered system, which assesses more than 1,500 variables to determine creditworthiness, resulting in more loans to consumers at lower annual percentage rates (APRs). This latest win also adds to the roster of more than 100 banks and credit unions in Upstart's network.
