UPSTD trade ideas
UPSTSell off is not over. I can see us selling until we hit $107.26 this month. It continues to show sign of weakness on the monthly TF.
Upstart's Next RallyElliot Wave Analysis on $UPST:
1- Corrective Wave 2 should most likely be completed somewhere in the zone depicted on the chart
2- Wave 2 may not be complete before 17 Mar 2022
3- Wave A, the first leg down of Wave 2, is already stretched enough so the price should reverse to the upside sooner than later
4- Wave 3, which is usually the longest and strongest of all waves has a price target of $750 to $1130. A more accurate target can be estimated once Wave 2 is complete
5- A very rough estimate shows us that Wave 3 should be completed around mid-2024 yielding 5x to 8x if $UPST is purchased at today's price around $140
This is not financial advice, DYODD
$UPST - Gap Fill SuccessfulOver the past couple of days, $UPST has regressed heavily and filled the gap it made back in August.
With Fed meetings over, and the newly bullish momentum in the markets, this name is primed to make a hefty reversal.
We have a small handful of resistances overhead, but I'm confident we'll be able to surpass them given enough bullish volume .
If we run hot enough, we even have a huge gap to fill above 270! I'll be keeping a close eye on this one heading into the new year.
ONG swingtrading swing support Supply Zone gap gapfill reversal bottom
UPST main Investment chartNASDAQ:UPST
This is a long term investment and not a trade, I am looking to hold this company stock the long term (more than 3 years). And before presenting my fundamental analysis, A good price entry point is my concern, All analysis discussed in order below:
Fundamental analysis:
Founders background check:
- Founder's objective and CEO management is the most important thing for the success of a company. Screening through upstart company we can find out that founders are three:
- Dave Girouard : From his Linkedin page, his most notable previous experience is working at:
1- Apple as product manager for 2.5 years (From Apple website we can see that the Product Manager job description is to deliver process and analytic systems AND drive decision automation using machine learning and conceptualize, build, and deliver automated decision analytics . Even though we do not have his superiors review his work in Apple, we can assume being a Manager at Apple means he know the work he is doing, secondly his work experience in Apple is relevant to his business which all rotate around machine learning, artificial intelligence and data analytics.
2- Google as Enterprise President for 8 years creating cloud apps business, at this level of experience in the same field of clouds and analytics and AIs MLs, its clear we can find article around him in search engines and about his previous projects and works. This guy background is a sold one.
- Anna Counselman : from her Linkedin page we can find out she worked with Dave Girouard in Google and they left Google at the same year and founded Upstart, his specialty is customer relations, services, operations and sales. It is a good combination but we need to see whether this company is build on opportunity they find in the market or they are two people falling in love with each other and decided to make their own wealth. This is not an issue as each one seem to have a different stable life and marriage, clear.
- Paul Gu : we don't have much information about him except he graduated from Yale University and worked in multiple companies.
All three co-founders are highly invested, but Girouard has a massive financial interest in the company, with 17.5% of the outstanding shares.
We can also find big names under the company's management team. This is a very positive sign.
Business model:
- Before looking at the stock of the company, we have to realize that this stock is actually based on a company behind it, and if this company is useless, on the long term the stock of it will be doomed. The company use AI based proprietary model to analyse credits instead of the traditional way of credit analysis (FICO score and income verification) which use limited number of variables, instead Upstart use more variables. Upstart helps customers get loans in two main ways: It does the marketing on its own to find customers and then pass them off to banks and credit unions, or banks can essentially embed Upstart's technology within their websites and branding. In term of growth, if we look at the company's revenue, it is not slowing down and if they expanded their model from personal loan lending AI model to Mortgages market, the boom will be on another whole level. In the long term, this have to be a great business model as long as their AI model is different and can't be replicated. AI technology develop better the more data it analyse, because Upstart is one of the first companies in this field and partnering with automotive lending retailers (Step one automotive group, Heritage Volkswagen, Cadillac of Greenwich, Germain automotive partnership includes ford hondai mazda lexus toyota VW and much more), if we look for banks that upstart partnering with are (First National Bank of Omaha, first federal bank of Kansas city and customers bank).
Price wise:
- UPST shown a very upside possibility and now the down turn happened due to correcting from the speculative up price movement as well as due to the market enters RISK OFF period which will show strength with the USD while the market lose new participations.
Artificial Intelligent Insurance Upstart Holdings
Leading artificial intelligence (AI) lending platform designed to improve access to affordable credit while reducing the risk and costs of lending for our bank partners. Our platform uses sophisticated machine learning models to more accurately identify risk and approve more applicants than traditional, credit-score-based lending models. They are considered a financial insurance company.
Since its IPO back in December 2020, it has had a 1400% gain.
We are currently at 3 levels of support :
Horizontal support
Uptrend support
61.8% Fibonacci retracement line
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$VIX is at 28 as I write this, so I advise smaller positions to be able to handle more volatility.
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UPST updateUPST forming a reversal pattern into some strong support. Previous scenario turned into continuation move down.
$UPST - Trade ideaThis will be my one public trade idea for the week. Any others will go up on the cord.
UPST is looking for WAVE A bottom. Possible double bottom already forming now - but I think it makes 1 more new low before reversing. I will be watching for signs of reversal on this name daily for entry.
Two things will trigger my entry here:
1) bullish divergence on all time frames while in between 137 and 150.
2) a breakout over the SECOND TL. I usually draw a channel or a parallel line and alert on the far one because I dont want to buy a fake out
After reversal I think this could get to 200 quick
UPST: bottom found at 160 - upside target 250.UPST has had a crazy run and dump, and while many high P/S names are still badly damaged, with UPST being one of the first ones to fade, it is also appearing to be one of the first to recover. Clear double bottom around 160 which also bumped into it's longer term uptrend line (the thick green line). Even now aroudn 190, I think this is still a decent time to enter for a trade over the coming weeks. Should be able to find it's way towards 250, which would also be roughly a 50% retracement of it's precipitous drop. Risk/reward looks strong here to me.
upst short update2hr tf reveal a small swing level. would keep an eye on how market respects that level. bearish bias in place though
#UPST - Bag Holding - I know it's hard, but keep holding#UPST is pretty close to some previous support and is also close to a Fib level. For those with a long time horizon, I would keep on holding.
Upst to continue dumpingCan't u feel it? there's a fire sale on All these company trading with high PE ratios before 2022 rate hike.
Upst will finish up with its H&S And return to 114 via bear channel.
BIG PICTURE // UPSTWill Keep Updating
Targets
-390$
-535$
-770$
-1500$
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UPST: The sharp correction following the last ER is still in progress. Wave A is expected to hit the bottom channel at around $192, a little past fib 50% but well shy of the fib 61.8. Wave B at fib 61.8% of A should fill the upper gap. Wave C could hit the larger fib 38.2 or the bottom channel line.
UPST - back at horizontal supportUPST had a spectacular run when it broke out of a horizontal resistence zone (158-170) in August, more than doubled in just 2 months before crashing back down to this breakout level.
It is probably a good time to nibble with an initial stop loss about $1 below the support zone @ 157. Trail stops upwards should trade goes our way or look to scale at out fib retraements levels shown.
Disclaimer: TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Thank you. Do give me a thumbs up if you agree. Feel free to let me know what you think! :)
UPST Potential Divergence TradeNASDAQ:MARA
Share Price Lower Low, FiFT Pro Higher Low. Divergence Trade
UPST: Possible Strong Bounce Incoming (B Wave...)After some strong selling you UPST is resting on the 200 moving average on the daily - this is a great place for a strong bounce. Also on a fib level of support - not sure what the long term direction could be here but going long for the next leg short term.
Upstart truns to Downstart???Review Upstart chart is highly recommended!
You can learn most of the technical rules in this chart!
But the most important thing you will learn is:
Market sentiment and price pattern are more important than the fundamentals!
While the fundamentals of this company became better and better, the price crashed more than 60% in the past few weeks!
Looking at my previous analysis could be interesting for you!
You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
UPST bounce underway?Looking for a 2 legged bounce in UPST, potential for stronger price action is there.
Bear FlagThe bear flag is a bearish continuation pattern and occurs in a downtrend. The first step in identifying the bear flag is to look for a downtrend. Next, look for a flag or wedge like structure that slopes up against the prevailing downtrend. You can get an idea of where price may go by projecting the length of the pole downward from the flag.
Often when a security has lost this much ground, folks will sell on rallies up to salvage as much as they can as they are probably in financial pain at this point. This could also cause a bear flag.
It is possible for a Bear Flag to break to the upside and a Bull Flag can break to the downside.
UPST has fallen from a head and shoulders pattern a while back.
No recommendation.
