VALED trade ideas
VALE - Bottomed and Going UpAlthough VALE is far from its 2008 highs of $44.xx, it seems that this Brazilian mining company has a history of v-shapped bottoms (or at least several days basing). The most recent highs of $11.71 and a bottom of $7.47 show that a FibR of .382 is $9.09, a .5% FibR of $9.59, and a .618% FibR of $10.09 - the relative sweet area of for those using FibR.
The last several days have hovered around the .236% FibR, all with bullish volume. Friday’s (5/26/2017) volume was to be expected due the long US weekend due to Memorial Day.
The daily MACD crossover since 5/10/2017 and Friday was the one of the first several closes above the 9dma and the 20dma.
The weekly chart shows a long legged doji for 5/15/2017 with a confirmation bullish candle the following week. The histograph on the MACD shows that the bears are starting to weaken. Weekly FibR at .5% is also $9.59. Would be a great +10% gain by mid-June.
VALE H&S FormationAfter a nice uptrend, Vale has stalled and formed a Head and Shoulders pattern. Notice the volume on the uptrend to the "head", increasing right? But notice after the stock hit support for the second time (after forming the head) the second shoulder move up is rather mixed. Volume tells us a little bit more on moves up rather than moves down. You don't need increasing volume for a move down, it's nice and supports the argument, but it's not necessary.
Wait to buy until the stock moves below the blue support line with decent volume but more importantly ending the day near or at its daily low (shaven bottom). Stocks like to consolidate for a few days before moving down on patterns like this, so i would wait to see if the stock remains around the same price but Stoch & CCI indicators move higher.
Next major support is at the $8.00 mark (38.2% retrace), with a drop through that finding support at $7.50 then just below $7.00.