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XOM trade ideas

Buy when there's DRY blood in the StreetsBuy When There's Blood in the Street ... After the recent well known events in the financial market and the crypto market I recalled a quote by Baron Rothschild: "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own." I would say this is very true; however, in the world of trading "Timing is Everything", don't just go blindly with the old saying, this is like the other saying "Catching a Falling Knife". Bottom line, we all have to stomach the ups and downs in the market, this is not for the faint at heart. The downturns are really good opportunities to buy cheap if you pay attention to the Market Structure, trust your indicators, and are disciplined with the money management policies. "Buy when there's blood in the Street ..." I would just wait until the blood is not fresh. It is not about catching the bottom, it is about buying at a discount, which is not the same. I personally use three main variables to time my entry and my exit, (1) Trend, (2) Momentum and (3) Volume. You don't really need more, although each trader has developed his/her own style, I show mine here. I sometimes use more indicators, but basically they measure the same variables from a customized perspective. For the sake of clarity, in this example I use regular popular and publicly available indicators, I use the simple Volume, the RSI, the MACD and the Madrid Ribbons. 1. Trend. "The trend is your friend until that freaking bend at the end". When we see the price structure we determine as simple as it is if there is an uptrend, downtrend, or trading range, the Madrid Ribbons is a very friendly indicator that visualize the direction of the trend at a glance, as long as it is in the green it means uptrend, if this turns from green to red it signals the end of a leg or a reversal of the trend. In this example there's a visible downtrend coming from 2019 when the Energy sector started its decline and a full working economy didn't need as much oil as when it needed a jumpstart. We can see from December 2018 until April 2019 there was a leg to the upside, this didn't last long, on May 2019 it didn't remain above the trendline for long and it kept on slowly bleeding until on January 2020 it collapsed and it broke down. The red ribbons continued until November 2020, when it visually showed a reversal. As simple as that. Follow the trend. 2. Momentum. In this article I use two momentum indicators, the popular RSI and MACD. There are tons of momentum indicators out there, I have coded myself several customized momentum indicators. The idea behind momentum is that momentum precedes the trend. Watch out, it is not "predicting", usually this tells that the direction of the trend is exhausting and it could possibly reverse. We must pay attention if the direction of the momentum is the same of the trend, and if it isn't then raise a momentum divergence flag. This is good to time the entries and exits. a) RSI. Let's look at the RSI on December 2018, it went from Oversold to reach Overbought levels on February 2019, this trip out from oversold signals a trend reversal, entering the trade on January 2nd, 2019 it would have been a great entry. The blood of the downtrend can weight in, trust the indicator and ride the leg. The RSI signals an exit on March 15th, 2019, with a juicy 15% in the leg, not risking to remain longer and not risking a falling knife in the downtrend. b) MACD. This indicator is on the negative side, which means there is a negative momentum going on. We're in a downtrend, remember?; however, it performs a crossover with the signal, which can be seen in the histogram, making it positive. We have a downtrend plus a positive momentum divergence. At the time the price crosses the trend we have a positive trend plus a positive momentum convergence, the Bulls are in control. this signals another entry. Riding the leg from the histogram crossover until the MACD histogram crosses down the Zero line gives us the same performance as the RSI on the same period. Look at the signal from MACD, the trend is still up, but the histogram is already negative, this signals a negative momentum divergence, it would be the time to take the money and run, preventing the main downtrend could continue. 3. Volume. Usually the volume is displayed in contrasting colors, green when the price bar goes up, red when it goes down. It's tricky, in order for the volume to exist there must be two sides, a buying and a selling side. I see it as volume is volume, and it denotes the interest of the market at a certain price level, I'm not too worried if it's red or green, I'm focused on whether there is high or low transactional activity. As you can see on December 21st, 2018 there was a volume peak that was increasing from the 13th and after the 18th it slowed down. There could have been a lot of sellers willing to take the exit when the prices declined, however there were not buyers to take their "garbage" and all of a sudden there are buyers at the lowest level willing to enter the trade on its way down, like kamikaze traders. The relative volume means those were not retail traders, but institutional traders who can get liquidity following the simple rule "buy on weakness, sell on strength". Another volume pattern is "Volume precedes momentum", a higher relative volume is needed to reverse a trend. So far we have this pattern, a downtrend with a low climatic volume, it's a No Go, it is still bleeding a lot. We wait until the relative volume increases meaningfully and the next sequence in the process is an exit from Oversold on the RSI or a Zero cross over to the positive side in the MACD histogram, next in the sequence is a trend reversal. Last but not least, money management, setup the entry - target - stop/trailing stop levels and ride the leg. Let's take a look at the second example, we still see the trend goes down. There are still some recover legs, that fail to break the trend to the upside, we see also the relative volume is low, so here the institutions are not committed and they patiently let the retail traders to consume themselves until the bid side dries up and the ask side has to settle for lower prices. Watch the period between January 2020 and the end of February 2020, the prices are in free fall, but the volume didn't react immediately, until the last part of February and early March, there was a peak that momentarily stopped the free fall and created a weak support, this was broken again, the number of sellers still overwhelm the buyers, and the climatic volume increases. This is the period when the institutional bulls are stepping in and they're buying the "garbage" that creates the kind of panic liquidity the institutions are looking for. At this time also the Bears are switching hats, they're closing their short positions and taking profits. Once the selling volume dries up, which can be seen when the relative volume slows down. This is the point when the bleeding in the market stops and we look for the signals in the Momentum indicators, we see at the end of March 2020 the RSI indicator escaped the Oversold area and the MACD histogram made a crossover the Zero line, in a very strong histogram. Both indicators flash a strong buy. This is the dry blood we're looking for. Emotionally it takes a toll, we just came from a strong downtrend and the fear that this it's not over yet is there. The fear that the heal is temporary and we're just stepping on a weak support is there. If we set the emotions aside and we trust the indicators and a good set of rules of disciplined money management, we can exploit the opportunities of a downturn. _____________________________________ “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” ~Sir John Templeton
NYSE:XOMEducation
by Madrid
11
XOM looks peaked already when adjusted for dividendsSince 2014 the market has been selling off XOM whenever it reaches above $70 when adjusted for dividends, this has happened six times already. Could it happen again in the next few weeks? Some more bearish reasons for a sell off: -Chart shows a breakout of a bearish wedge which can turn out to be a blow off top. -Every bag holder of XOM since before the covid crash can now cash out at break even. -You can see on the daily chart that it usually sells off here just before earnings and the div date hit. -With Electric Vehicles becoming hotter and hotter, it doesn't make sense that XOM would be as valuable as it was in 2014 and their down trending revenue since then show this: www.macrotrends.net -Wall street has been pumping this stock and other value stocks harder than XOM can pump oil. -Related UCO also looks almost topped to me, see this chart: If I wanted in XOM, I would at least wait until it falls back down to $60, where under normal market conditions has had strong support. One bullish possibility is a trend change. I would only consider the trend has changed if XOM holds above $70 for a few weeks as the moving averages catch up though. My opinion is this whole movement is over extended and to be very careful! I don't like seeing us retail getting scammed by wall street.
NYSE:XOMShort
by Lynxys
2
Major Intersection of trends for XOMXOM has a multi year resistance line that it quickly has been approaching. This resistance line depicted in red has held strong since 2014 and Exxon has attempted to break above this resistance line several times since and has failed each time. What makes this retest different? Momentum and demand makes this retest different, In fact the move on the MACD has been extreme and much stronger than previous momentum swings depicted on XOM's MACD. This coupled with a red hot crude/commodities market tells me that this time will be different when XOM grinds up closer to the multi-year resistance trend line I expect a bullish breakout and a price target of 77, and then a move up to 87.55 within a few years.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Gooby_Trades
XOM - Watch Exxon Mobil closely!Dear subscribers, lets come together to discuss another major oil company. NYSE:XOM As we described in our last update "CVX - Major reversal ahead?" the situation in major us oil stocks is very exciting. Some time has passed since the collapse (february 2020) of the oil price and the massive drops in companies like Chevron or Exxon Mobil . In the past year those stocks as well as the oil price have rallied tremendously and Exxon Mobil could rise nearly 130% since it's bottom. Like in Chevron we have spotted a very important chart formation in the Exxon Mobil, a so-called "Rising Wedge", which marks a major trend reversal according to the Elliot Wave Theory. From the image shown on the left, you can see the 1-2-3-4-5 movement and the following correction in wave II. The only minor inconvience is, that Exxon Mobil's chart structure isn't as flawless as Chevron but the situation is clearly the same. We now have reason to believe that Exxon Mobil is in the last breaths of its rally and is on the verge of a massive price collapse. In that case, wave II could set us back to prices in the $88 to even $67 range. Disclaimer: According to legal regulations, Mornau-Research is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk. Mornau-Research cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence. We are not the original creators of the image shown, the following link provides the place of origin of it. anzforextrader.blogspot.com =============================================================================================================== If you have questions related to a specific stock or the Elliot Wave theory, feel free to contact us.
NYSE:XOM
by Mendenmein-Capital
6
XOM - one of the top energy stocks for the next few yearsHoly cow... ExxonMobil is on a roll! The stock price has been continuously rising (with a few intermittent dips) from a long term standpoint since the March 2020 crash...I think that's likely due to the company's higher amount of transparency in regards to its peers. I'm specifically referring to its 2030 promise of Net-Zero Permian emissions, its continued investment into algae biofuels when competitors like Chevron NYSE:CVX gave up, and its open support of the Paris agreement despite any ulterior motives Darren Woods and co. may have. I also credit, to a lesser degree, the view that ExxonMobil may be the greenest descendant of Rockefeller's Standard Oil because of Engine No. 1's victory and the continued growth and impact of the new Coalition United for a Responsible Exxon (CURE), as well as how the public may not necessarily have the best view of Chevron due to the Steven Donziger incidents. ExxonMobil' dividend being higher than Chevron, BP NYSE:BP , ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , and Royal Dutch Shell BCBA:RDS on a percentage basis also gives me confidence. I fear that regulations from the governments in their respective countries will likely hamper the progress of PetroChina NYSE:PTR , BP and Shell. The only other oil company that may have better dividends than ExxonMobil and also is an established American company is Sunoco NYSE:SUN , but I am not seeing too much potential with them, although I will reconsider my position. Overall, ExxonMobil is likely the top major energy stock for the next few years and the one making the most developments; I won't be surprised if ExxonMobil becomes big enough for another large oil merger, especially if "Chexxon" becomes a thing.
NYSE:XOMLong
by dwang479
Energy stocks for high inflation era..!it seems Energy stocks are ready to finish their correction and started a new rally! Keep them in your portfolio during high inflation times! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:XOMLong
by Moshkelgosha
1
Close your eyes and buy: XOMAt the start of the year with EV on everyone's lips I wanted to be contrarian. What is the sector that is MOST HATED in the market? Energy... specifically "dirty" energy. NYSE:XOM at the very start of the year was trading below Book Value. Through all of these price shocks to oil and a bearish energy market they have not ceased or cut their dividends. Even now at this price it still offers an above 7% yield. Unfortunately, I hesitated as now this week the bullish case seems to be known by all with new analyst upgrades coming out. I hate to do it but I started my long term position today. I'll add to my full allocation on (hopefully) pullbacks but sometimes you just have to buy the highs to get in.
NYSE:XOMLong
by norok
4
Looking for a rally in Oil stocksThe market looks to be recovery today and the most interesting stocks to me were oil companies ( NYSE:XOM , NYSE:MRO , NYSE:COP ) which all exhibited morning open volatility spikes. The one I liked the most because it was at at 50% Retracement (see high timeframe below) is XOM so it fits my criteria for a long trade. I'll be looking for a retest of the last major highs. This is also an addon positions to a winner from the beginning of 2021 (see Related Idea).
NYSE:XOMLong
by norok
4