Weekly chart of $XOM is bullishNYSE:XOM
Weekly chart of NYSE:XOM is bullish. Can see new highs by end of year
XOMD trade ideas
XOM Exxon - Spring Coiled Or Hanging By A Thread?Every time the price of oil goes up, there's a group of bulls that are sure they're catching the train to $150. I mean, I do think oil will go to $150, and there has to be a bottom that comes first, so there's that.
But with fossil fuels and energy producers it seems the pumps are rare, the consolidations are frequent, and the dumps are more common.
In two recent calls, I suggest that oil may actually be on its way to a 3-handle
Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins
This particular thesis is at something of its inflection point. All the way to $85 would not be surprising, nor would it invalidate the short trade. But here we chop in the $80s.
For Natgas, in a recent call, I suggest that price needs to raid $1.6~ before the rocket mission to $10 can commence
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
Natty has rallied fairly meaningfully in the last few days, and it may even actually finally punch out $3. But if it can't continue from there, the idea may still be correct.
A big tell that something isn't right in the bull thesis for Exxon is that after the highs were swept in April at $119~, everyone long over $111 has remained trapped ever since, with price not following oil's recent $20 rally.
Now for Exxon, something that's really notable is that the CEO recently bought himself some 650,000 shares for $69 million. This makes many people believe that new highs simply have to be coming.
When we look at monthly candles, we can see we're "flagging" above the old All Time High, there's no indication that it's a reversal, and yet, for three months, there is no reversal.
On the weekly, last week's price action gave the appearance that it's finally time, but it may have just been a stop sweep over the range high.
It's notable oil is pumping, but Exxon is not, despite its stellar earnings report.
An important thing to note about Exxon is next dividends ex-date is August 15 and the payout is 91 cents a share. The CEO will pick up some $591,000+ in cold cash mitigating his position.
It's also worth noting that when it comes to insider buys, they aren't necessarily indicative that price is going to go up before it goes down.
The man may have understood he could make more than the 5% he can earn in the money market by buying Exxon and loaning the shares out to short sellers, combined with dividend payments, over the next year, for example.
The most rational place for Exxon to correct to, if it were to correct, is the $68 level.
There are a lot of geopolitical risks right now with China, the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping, and the CCP and the Jiang Zemin faction's 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong.
This is really the biggest piece of the puzzle that you need to educate yourself with, but establishment media doesn't talk about it.
All of this directly impacts the oil market. And the War in Ukraine impacts the oil market, because if the War is called off then Russian oil is going to flow worldwide again and amount to a big time supply increase.
Things can change any time.
XOM Daily (Bullish Scenario)EXXON on the daily timeframe has been below a significant resistance level ( 108 ) for 81 days, and it's not showing signs of breaking out and growing yet. If it manages to break above this area and exhibits strong momentum, we can expect a good potential for growth.
XOM 108-110 second chance top comingXOM 108-110 second chance top coming, my previous analysis showed short term rallys to 108-110 should be viewed as short term sell rallys (second chance exit zones)
XOM Exxon Mobil Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought XOM here:
Or when they made more money than God:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of XOM Exxon Mobil prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 105usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XOM to see 91 after 100 psych breakXOM: Sell the bounces at $100, $91, and $63-75 levels levels (+/- a little as I prefer to use zones).
If you look at my longer-term analysis, my projection is $75.38 .618 fibonacci level, possibly seeing lower, somewhere between 63 (.786 fib level on weekly timeframe) and 75 (.618 weekly fib level) for a few days as a weekly pierce but closing out at that point in the future at .618 which may represent a buy once we hit 75, but i'm unyielding bearish, even if my abc count is invalidated, with my A wave ending at 101.59 instead of 91.57, any bounces from there would be viewed to me as short open opportunities, or opportunities to sell into cash, but this may take many months to over a year or more to occur.
The fibonacci levels of .382 and .618 will be very strong, so expect bounces here. However, these should be seen as sell-out bounces and not as bounces providing hope of a continued trend above $120.
This will likely be a buy opportunity at the mid-60s. I wouldn't touch anything beyond short-term call options on the long side here, regardless of their $4.9 billion venture, which is viewed as a hedge against the substitution effect from oil to electric grid-based resources.
I always start with Daily to Weekly timeframes when developing a trend bias, so I always know where the market structure is. Going back to October 2020, this stock was around $28 per share, topping around $117 per share in February of this year. A drop to around $91 represents a .382 Fib retracement, where I possibly see our Weekly A Wave of the higher-order ABC correction concluding, leading to a bounce towards 100-101 before a fall towards 75 zone.
For longer-term buyers adamant about buying this thing, I would at most start dollar cost averaging once we get into the 80s, more progressively as we break below 80. But again, remember that oil's relevance may be very high in the future but not as high as it was in the past and is diminishing over time, in my opinion.
Channel DownDiagonal trading channel.
Looks like an earnings miss.
The Channel Down pattern is identified when there are two parallel lines, both moving down to the right across respective peaks (upper line) and bottoms (lower line). The upper line is identified first, as running along the lows: it defines the trendline. The lower line (or, the channel line) is identified as parallel to the trendline, running across the first prominent bottom. When in the channel, prices are expected to bounce off both upper and lower boundaries until the channel is broken; the more such reversals occur, the more reliable the pattern.
No recommendation
throwover complete for XOM?My forcast of a top at high 105s is still in tact as we had a throw-over to 107 today. I mentioned previously a 20% chance we hit 108-111 zone temporarily but the fall is still imminent to 98 (within a week), then 85 (after a 98 bounce which could take weeks to months) intermediate term, then my longer term .681 (monthly ++ chart) forecast before XOM is a buy again on a value basis is $63-$65 zone.... we shall see.. Expect volatility through the end of the month and a drop after any trumped up month end rises. I see $108 to $111 as our hard ceiling and where we are now as our relatively hard ceiling with month closing rallies that will serve as fake-outs or bull traps.
triple top formationAs i mentioned in my other posts, 105.50 zone was our second chance sell, triple top intraday is confirming our soon to be drop towards 100
Calls ideaBought some calls here. I think is a little tight. I should have given them one more week. Hope it plays put.
XOM Oil Spill bear.XOM is around the 50% retracement zone alongside with a Bank order block that its approaching. Zoom into the 5m -1m inside the blue & black box for a sniper entry for a move to $100.
XOM UpdateDon't get it twisted this submarine is going to scrape the floors in the near future. Remember, we have a transition (substitution effect) off of oil to electric, even with their soon-to-be 4.9 billion dollar purchase (which poses it's own risks), so thouugh it's a long term mitigating factor, the stock has risen from 28 in early 2021, lol when you realize or don't allow your cognitive bias of anchoring interrupt your thought, you see why the 62-65% level will be seen.
tagging as short for my timeframe sentiment though my pop is short term bullish (but i would not touch it on buy side unless it was weekly calls)
XOM The energy sector is one I discussed in my 03 July 2023 report, highlighting the related ETFs as well as the oil price which, at the time, had a pending breakout. The underlying commodity (oil) has since started to turn higher, which may be a boost for the sector, which also saw strong buying activity in recent weeks. Exxon Mobil's key drivers are as follows: (1) Price largely unchanged since October as the price absorbs overhead supply. (2) currently test the incline support in place since February 2022 (3) In the short term, is trading at the lower boundary of the 2 standard deviation, 50-day linear regression channel (with positive candle structure at the time of writing) (4) horizontal support in place. With energy perking up on a relative basis, a tactical rebound may be possible with the potential to breach the downward trend line. Do note that event risk is at hand with earnings due on 28 July 2023. Time Stop: 31 October 2023
XOM Update shorter termI posted a longer term projection with 3 major support zones, 98 short term, 85 intermediate term and 63-65 .618% weekly long term (buy zone)
In the coming weeks i see either being capped at 103 to 108 or a temporary test at 110-115.
My projection is the blue line with upside risk (risk in terms of bears making bet) being the red line
XOM short term fake out to bear trendThis chart depicts my short term $108-$110 retest to complete the diamond pattern and followed by an eventual test and break of the .236 fibonacci level.
Intermediate term target is .382 Fib level after that with a bounce in the coming year to the prior Fib level of .236 (around $98). Long term target before a buy again is around $63-$65 .618 Fibonacci Level
Exxon Mobil to $60- As we look at the chart we see that we have finished a full W1 with micros which are listed on the chart. I see us falling into a W2 for the near term future before another push higher. The blue support lines on the chart are where I expect price to be at and to buy.
I would be a buyer in the range of the blue lines.
Exxon Mobil ($XOM) ShortLast year was a good year for oil stocks. This year, not so much...
Technical wise, this 50 / 200 day moving average cross or death cross is showing weakness for $XOM. The death cross only tells you that price action has deteriorated over a period a little longer than two months, if the crossing is done by the 50-day moving average. $100 is a big level that's held for most of the year...
XOM LongTriple bottom with Good volume and crossing RSI at the level of previous high , the big move if cross the line with green area .
Ceased to be insignificant. What country is this?-I begin this analysis by congratulating a South American country on its great financial rise in recent years.
-Until recently, this unknown and small country was not even noticed in the local scene. Due to the most recent discoveries regarding its energy potential (oil), things are changing, and this small country has attracted the attention of the big oil producing countries, more precisely the OPEC cartel.
-Its meteoric rise has made the country the fastest growing oil producer in the world. If things continue to evolve, the small and “prosperous country” could become a huge headache for the cartel, so much so that we had the Saudi energy minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman, and Haitham al-Ghais, secretary general of OPEC, inviting the rookie to join the cartel in recent months, however, the invitation was declined.
-The country's justification for the refusal is as follows: “We need to maximize production and profits in the short term, as the demand for oil should decline in the coming decades. At the moment, our idea is to get the most of these resources out of the soil and as quickly as possible, because we are not sure of the window that we will have in the future", said the vice president of the country.
-He also pointed out that if the country joined the cartel, it would risk becoming indebted to the other producing countries, as its members always want to reduce global production to keep prices high, going against the grain of the country's main idea. “Our plans are to increase oil production by 1 million barrels per day by the year 2028”.
-Exxon Mobil and some partners have been exploring the region since 2015, and around 30 major discoveries have been made. Estimates are around 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent available for exploration. The country has become Exxon Mobil's main target, and investment efforts by foreigners have already reached the order of US$ 40 billion.
-As its oil production grows, its domestic economy also expands and investments from abroad are flowing into savings in infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of electricity grids and ports to support the intense and growing flow of exports.
-The growth of the oil sector in the country triggered a large flow of trade and attracted investments in hotels, restaurants and department stores. The IMF estimates that the country's GDP could grow by around 37% in 2023
-Another factor of great importance for the country is the increase in its presence on the global stage, and with that the country was elected a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. A great achievement!
-If you reached the end of this text, will you be able to answer which country I am referring to? Let's test your ability to observe events that can generate good results... Lol!
-Worth a read!
-Do your analysis and good business.
-Be Aware, If You Buy, Use Stop!
-See below for other graphic reviews!
Tip me over and pour me out (is that a good title?)Seeing a number of large stocks that look toppy. The short short list includes KO, MSFT, MCD, AMD, CRM, DHR, and this one. The sketchy shorts include S and TMUS. The long list includes MDT.
Traditionally after last week's down close following the Fed announcement that also means at least two weeks or more of downside. A double close above last week's closing highs would negate that tradition.
How I trade the candles. $XOM exampleHow I trade the candles. There is more not mentioned in the video but for the most part these are the basic steps I take 1st before diving into look for more confluences to help me decide during a trade.
Exxon Mobil potential downsideThe dividend day is behind us and the people bought for hefty dividend will pull out. A lot hesitation for going higher, at least not before a revisit to 200MA in my opinion.
A little calculated short position seems to worth it!
DO YOUR OWN RISK ANALYSIS!
