$COST Short Idea - First target 465Market has been rallying but today seemed suspect and pop in VIX implies smart money possibly hedging under the hood.
Time to start looking for hedges / short opportunities , whether we get a large move down or just a pullback before going higher, IMO in the near term we see some selling.
Costco is at trend line resistance and therefore I see it as a good hedge/ short candidate. Also at the top of the BB , implying as a mean reversion trade we at least see 495, with 465 being the max profit taking level for me.
For the less risk adverse can trade a 525/530 call credit spread or a 525/520 put debit spread, although all out short / long put is also an option ... I'm looking at DEC opex.
Cheers - Frisco
COSTCL trade ideas
Head and Shoulders/Symmetrical TrianglePrice is above the neckline which is strong support.
The triangle is neutral until broken.
Earnings 12/9. Analysts numbers are softer than last quarter.
Short interest is low at around 1%.
No recommendation.
Upcoming Quarter's Earnings
Announce Date
12/9/2022 (Estimated)
EPS Normalized Estimate
$3.14
EPS GAAP Estimate
$3.14
Revenue Estimate
$54.87B
EPS Revisions (Last 90 Days)*
UP-7 Down-6
COST (COSTCO) massively bearish head and shoulders patternCOST (COSTCO) has formed a massive head and shoulders pattern over the past year, which seems like a no-brainer opportunity to get short.
COST could possibly reach 440 by the middle of October and 407 by the first week of November if the price breaches the neckline around 464. A period of consolidation could delay these estimates by several days.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
Head and Shoulders Price is below the neckline of 469.
Retests of the neckline are common.
Price is breaking the support line of a symmetrical triangle.
Targets in orange type.
No recommendation.
This pattern is valid when the neckline is broken as it is a strong source of support. The right shoulder or 1st shoulder represents a strong uptrend that pulls back as trends often do. Then the head is formed with another surge of momentum and a new high is reached. Once more the stock pulls back and those who have missed out buy the pull back. The last shoulder can represent FOMO (fear of missing out) but is also a good time to sell your position if you got in during the head formation. The left shoulder should be in the same ballpark price wise as the right shoulder but rarely are they the same exact price.
Bearish engulfing candle today.
No recommendation.
Don't lose your shadow.,
Dec Earnings could be last strawBig diamond top forming-
Either
1. We continue this bullish momentum until we hit top right of diamond (around 533-540 range) beginning of November
1a. From here we go down (495-500ish), bounce and go back up and break out of the diamond
1b. We go down (495-500) consolidate at the end of the diamond and fall at earnings
2. We go down to the bottom of the diamond one last time around $474 then continue on up to the top right diamond trendline (533-540)
2a. From here we go down (495-500ish), bounce and go back up and break out of the diamond
2b. We go down (495-500) consolidate at the end of the diamond and fall at earnings
3. less than stellar October earnings of the overall market drag us down and out of the diamond early causing a nice big crash, but Costco December earnings help put us on new bullish reversal momentum.
Costco deep retracementCost has been retraced to the lower boundary of the previous ascending channel. would continue to monitor and wait for a price action rejection. we might get this very soon or wait till 2 weeks. price rules the market.
Caveat emptor. This isnt a recommendation. it is for educational purposes only.
Costco slashing prices! COSTAbout to go through pivot level in what otherwise looks like a finished impulse. Picking conservative, fractally evident levels.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
COST, Bearish Quasimodo pattern is beautifully forming !COST is showing nicely a very popular price action Quasimodo pattern .
Quasimodo pattern is also called Over-Under pattern. It is simply formed by series of Highs and lows as shown on the chart.
Sell zone (568-571 USD) was shown on the chart for COST. In addition to strong static resistance of pattern we also have 0.786 Retracement level of the last major decline in this zone. Moreover, Pull back to broken up trend line might be completed at mentioned Sell zone.
It is also worth to note, All indicators will be extremely overbought if COST can reach to shown sell zone.
As Quasimodo pattern has been proved to be of high probability success , we certainly keep COST in our short watch list but do not jump into trade blindly. As always we need a reversal trigger at sell zone to open our position . Take profit targets are also shown on the chart by green lines.
The reference of the inserted picture was shown on the chart . You can find many other pics and examples simply by googling " Quasimodo pattern ".
Good luck everybody.