Rising to $1000: LLY's potential 30% leap to $1T market capIn the complex, competitive and unpredictable pharmaceutical, Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) is a notable player that is gaining even more notoriety. The company is currently making significant strides in diabetes care and weight loss medications; however, these advancements have not come without their challenges. It has recently experienced periods of management transitions and has been managing substantial debt. Such debts were incurred to invest in research and development, notably for Weight loss drugs like Mounjaro (tirzepatide), Zepbound and Retatrutide, which are at the forefront of Eli Lilly's recent success.
LLY has strategically launched a direct-to-consumer platform, "LillyDirect". This move reflects the company's adaptation to digital platforms and increased demand of their product, addressing a significant barrier nowadays in the acquisition of such drugs, particularly in the weight loss segment: buying them from a supplier that hasn't run out of stocks yet.
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LLYCL trade ideas
ELI LILLY Going to $1050 but after a 1D MA50 correction.Eli Lilly (LLY) has basically turned sideways since the February 16 High. The dominant pattern is a Channel Up since the March 07 2023 Low and can be divided into 3 Bullish Waves that delivered rallies between +45% and +52%. Every time the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it was a buy opportunity.
The 1D RSI in particular has a Buy Zone, which coincided with all those dip buy opportunities within the Channel Up. As a result, since the stock has already completed a +45% rise from the October 31 2023 Low, we do expect a pull-back to start soon towards the RSI Buy Zone, but only after it rises a little again and forms a Lower High on the RSI, which would be consistent with the previous top formation on the Channel Up.
In any case, at any point the RSI hits its Buy Zone, we will position ourselves with a long and aim for a new +45% rise. Rough target from the current projection is $1050. Notice how efficiently the peak and bottom formations are caught by the Sine Waves. A very symmetric pattern for the long-term indeed.
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LLY rides its success against obesity and diabetes LONGLLY shown on a daily chart has doubled in the past year with the introduction of new FDA
approved drugs into the market. It has but out a series of favorable earnings reports with
optimistic realistic guidance and glowing analysts' forecasts. It has done so without any volume
pumps and just keeps grinding higher. This is because it is in the shadows of big technology
stocks. Revenues consistently beat analysts' forecasts quarter after quarter.
Institutions add small lots trying to preserve the price for future buys without any
run-ups. I have done the same thing and I will continue to do so. While day trading
biotechnology penny stocks, LLY along with UNH, PFE, and AZN is where the profits are
parked for growth and compounding.
ELI LILLY Is a -20% correction possible?Eli Lilly (LLY) gave us the best possible buy entry at the bottom of the Channel Up last time we gave a call on it (December 14 2023, see chart below) and not hit our $705.00 Target but also aggressively broke above the pattern:
In order to grasp the magnitude of that move, this time we zoom out on the 1W time-frame where we see the long-term pattern since LLY's parabolic move started, in mid 2018 following 3 years of consolidation. The pattern that emerged since is a 6-year logarithmic Channel Up, which since 2023 has gone extremely parabolic.
The key characteristic on this long-term price action is the unique pattern that the 1W MACD forms, a Bearish Cross followed by a Bullish Cross. Four such occurrences since 2018 have caused the stock to form a Higher High top at a minimum 2 weeks and maximum 10 weeks after the Bullish Cross. Currently we are on the 3rd week since the latest 1W MACD Bullish Cross and if it extends to 10 weeks, we can technically expect the new top by April 08 2024.
However, the 1st red 1W candle following the Bullish Cross on those 4 past occurrences has always been the top, or near it. Given the fact that LLY is so close to the top of the 6-year Channel Up, we can expect that a correction will start soon. The minimum correction has been -17.44% and the maximum -23.23% (2 occasions out of the 4). Also before a new long-term rally started, the price hit the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Long-term investors can wait for such a contact before buying again heavily Eli Lilly for a new 12-month run.
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LLY Eli Lilly Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought LLY before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of LLY Eli Lilly prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 680usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $15.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Eli Lilly Stock Soars on Robust Fourth-Quarter PerformanceEli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) has once again defied expectations, propelling its stock to new heights with a stellar fourth-quarter performance that surpassed even the most optimistic forecasts. The pharmaceutical giant's earnings report, released early Tuesday, showcased a remarkable surge in both revenue and adjusted earnings, fueled by the successful launch of its groundbreaking weight loss drug, Zepbound, and buoyed by robust sales of its flagship diabetes treatment, Mounjaro.
Earnings Review
Earnings figures reveal a standout quarter for Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ), with adjusted profit soaring to $2.49 per share, significantly outpacing the consensus estimate of $2.30 per share among analysts surveyed by FactSet. This remarkable feat represents a substantial increase from the year-earlier period, where earnings stood at $2.09 per share, underscoring the company's impressive growth trajectory.
Revenue Result
Similarly, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) fourth-quarter revenue surged to $9.35 billion, marking a notable 28% increase from the same period last year and surpassing analysts' expectations of $8.95 billion. This remarkable revenue surge can largely be attributed to the stellar performance of Zepbound, the company's newly approved weight loss drug, which generated a staggering $175.8 million in sales during its inaugural quarter on the market.
Analysts Views
The success of Zepbound has exceeded even the loftiest projections, with analysts predicting the potential for over a billion dollars in sales within its first year alone, positioning it as a potential game-changer in the pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, with its groundbreaking mechanism of action and promising efficacy profile, Zepbound holds the potential to become one of the most significant drugs in Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) portfolio and a major revenue driver in the years to come.
The Mounjaro
Meanwhile, the continued strong performance of Mounjaro, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) blockbuster diabetes treatment, further bolstered the company's financials, with fourth-quarter sales soaring to $2.21 billion, far surpassing analysts' expectations. This remarkable growth can be attributed to both increased demand and higher realized prices, underscoring the enduring strength of Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) diabetes franchise.
Challenges
However, amidst the impressive financial results, Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) also faces challenges, notably in its diabetes portfolio, where lower prices for Trulicity and Humalog offset some of the gains from Mounjaro. Despite this setback, the company remains optimistic about its long-term prospects, buoyed by the continued success of its key products and a robust pipeline of innovative therapies.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) has provided a bullish outlook for the full year, with projected adjusted earnings in the range of $12.20 to $12.70 per share and revenue expected to reach $40.4 billion to $41.6 billion. These optimistic forecasts reflect the company's confidence in its ability to sustain its growth momentum and capitalize on emerging opportunities in the evolving healthcare landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) fourth-quarter performance stands as a testament to its resilience, innovation, and unwavering commitment to advancing patient care. With its groundbreaking therapies and strong financial performance, Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) is well-positioned to deliver sustained value to its shareholders while continuing to make a meaningful impact on global healthcare.
As Eli Lilly (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) prepares to engage with investors during its earnings call, all eyes will be on the company as it provides insights into its strategic priorities, pipeline progress, and plans for driving future growth. Amidst a backdrop of rapid innovation and evolving market dynamics, Eli Lilly's (NYSE: NYSE:LLY ) continued success underscores its status as a powerhouse in the pharmaceutical industry and a beacon of hope for patients worldwide.
Eli Lilly Breaks New Ground With Weight Loss Drug Offering Eli Lilly - NYSE:LLY
Earnings
Rep: $2.49 ✅ Exp: $2.29 - 8.45% HIGHER
Revenue
Rep: $9.35b ✅ Exp: $8.94b - 4.55% HIGHER
Company Summary
Eli Lilly is the worlds 9th largest company by market cap at $670b and they have reported positive earnings and revenue both coming in higher than expected for Q4 2023. The pharmaceutical giant booked fourth-quarter revenue of $9.35 billion, up 28% from the same period a year ago. A massive result that is reflected in the chart and pre-market surge in price per a share from €706 - €740 👀
Eli develop and manufacture a series of medications with their top drugs being for diabetes and cancer.
The diabetes drug Trulicity generated more than $7.4 billion in revenue for Eli Lilly in 2022 accounting for more than one-quarter of the company's top line, which totaled $28.5 billion. Meanwhile for 2023, Trulicity, reported $1.67 billion in revenue. That’s down 14% from the same period a year go however remains a large revenue generator.
Mounjaro booked $2.21 billion in sales for the fourth quarter and remains one of the companies core diabetes products.
The Q4 2023 results are the first to include sales of Eli Lilly’s new weight loss drug Zepbound, which won FDA approval in early Nov 2023. Zepbound resulted in $175.8 million in sales for Q4. Analysts are expecting a minimum of $1 billion in sales for the 2024 period and some are claiming that Zepbound could become the biggest drug of all time. Do you feel that AI style narrative euphoria building here?
Now more importantly, Lets check out this chart
The Chart
The chart here really caught my attention, its one of thee strongest long term charts I have come across and it keeps making higher double bottoms off higher moving averages.
The OBV is increasing still and the support line might be a good line to watch got an entry bounce or a break down (exit) - a trigger level.
PUKA
LLY longCurrent price action is overbought based on Rsi indicator however the buying momentum is staying solid, look for price to continue leading into earnings after market close on tuesday. Of the last 16/26 bullish weekly candlebars price has consecutively made higher highs with roughly 38% bearish or selling pressure within that timeframe. Based on the current up trend price would make newer highs of roughly 4% staying above 630 would be a good pullback scenario if there is a drawdown due to upcoming dividends being paid out on the 14th.
📊 Earnings Edge: Diagonal Debit Dynamics - #2 Trade in 20242024 Trading Challenge Entry #2: Diary of an Option Trader
💡 Trade Overview:
I noticed LLY soaring on the TradingView stock heatmap today. Observing the monthly chart of AMEX:XLE (healthcare sector), it has been mostly sideways for years. However, in the past two days, NYSE:LLY has demonstrated strong bullish movement with increasing volume, indicating a potential uptrend. I strategized to profit from a possible breakout or continued trend within an ascending triangle pattern.
📊 Option Strategy choice:
Given the high IVR of 42 and an upcoming earnings report on February 6th before market, I anticipate further price rise. I pondered various strategies:
Single leg call: Not preferable due to increasing breakeven with time.
Naked put/credit vertical spread: Not ideal close to earnings, expecting IVR increase.
OTM calendar: Avoided due to back month’s illiquidity.
ATM calendar: Lower upper breakeven point was a concern.
Noticing that IV was higher for the front-month compared to the back-month, likely due to the nearing earnings, I decided a diagonal put debit strategy was ideal to allow significant upside potential while benefiting from minor retracements as time progresses and speculating on an IVR increase.
📊 Diagonal put debit Position Legs:
Chosen structure and execution details:
Buy LLY Mar 15, 2024, 600.00 PUT at 27.48 (Quantity: 1)
Sell LLY Feb 16, 2024, 610.00 PUT at 26.57 (Quantity: 1)
Trade Details & Key Metrics:
Symbol : LLY
Date/Time : 2024-01-03 15:00
POP : 54%
Required Buying Power ( Req.BP ): $1090
IVR : 44
Price : buying for $0.91 debit
Front month leg : February 16 @610 x 1 PUT
Back month leg : March 15 @600 x -1 PUT
📈 My Risk Tolerance:
For the 2024 trading challenge (goal: FWB:12K to $30k), I’m limiting floating losses to 1.5% per position, thus not tolerating more than a $175 loss. This threshold is approximately around a 590 strike price. While I’m comfortable with a considerable upside range, the upper breakeven at front month expiration is around a 711 strike, increasing to 760 at 21 DTE.
🎯 My Profit Target:
I’m aiming for about 2x the allowed loss, approximately around $300, but will consider taking profits if the price approaches the optimal equity curve point near a 650 strike. Realizing profits is always the more gratifying part of trading!
ANYWAY: HIT THE 🚀 BUTTON ABOVE!
This trade is part of my 2024 option trading challenge , where I aim to turn a 12k account above $30K 💰 (details in signature and my profile page) .
LLY trading inside the channelLet"s have a look at LLY chart on the 4 hours time frame. LLY has been in upsloping channel. And the price has been creating higher lows and higher highs. We expect the price to retest upsloping support and to continue the upward trajectory. The long position can be taken at the upsloping support and target would be at the upsloping resistance.
Good luck
LLY - 3 months CUP & HANDLE══════════════════════════════
Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot
trading opportunities based solely on the
development of
CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS
🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝
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Hello Traders ✌
After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that:
- it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment;
- since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant;
- the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts;
For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart.
Thank you all for your support
🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER
"A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist"
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⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠
The content is The Art Of Charting's personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purpose and therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.
$LLY Double Top PierceNYSE:LLY Double Top Pierce A double top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis that often signals a potential trend reversal in an asset's price. This pattern typically occurs after an uptrend and is identified by two peaks at approximately the same price level, separated by a trough or a pullback.
Here's a breakdown of the double top pattern:
1. **Uptrend:** The double top pattern forms after a prolonged uptrend, indicating a period of bullish sentiment in the market.
2. **First Peak (Left Shoulder):** The price reaches a high point, forming the first peak. After this peak, there is a temporary decline, known as the trough, as some traders take profits or exit positions.
3. **Recovery (First Trough):** Following the decline, there is a partial recovery as buyers step back in, creating a bounce from the trough. However, the price does not reach a new high.
4. **Second Peak (Head):** The price makes a second attempt to reach the previous high (or neckline) but fails to surpass it, forming the second peak. This peak is typically at or near the same level as the first peak.
5. **Decline (Second Trough):** After the second peak, a more substantial decline occurs as selling pressure increases. This decline usually confirms that a reversal might be underway.
6. **Neckline:** The line connecting the lows of the troughs forms the neckline. It acts as a support level. The confirmation of the double top pattern occurs when the price breaks below this neckline.
7. **Reversal Confirmation:** The completion of the double top is confirmed when the price closes below the neckline. This signals a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish.
Traders often use the height of the pattern (distance from the peaks to the neckline) to estimate a potential target for the downward move after the pattern completion.
It's important to note that technical analysis patterns are not foolproof, and false signals can occur. Traders often use additional indicators and analysis to enhance the reliability of their trading decisions.
Eli Lilly Challenges Falling TrendlineEli Lilly spent the fourth quarter consolidating gains, and now trend followers may expect further upside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the falling trendline along the peaks of November and December. Prices tried to fight above that resistance yesterday, creating potential for a breakout.
The pharma giant also pushed above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Both of those events may suggest that the intermediate-term trend is getting more bullish.
Next, LLY jumped on November 2 following strong quarterly results and bottomed around $567 the next session. It tested that post-earnings low last month and repeatedly closed above it. Is new support in place?
Finally, MACD just turned positive.
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Zepbound's FDA Approval: Boosting Lilly & Co's Stock OutlookThe FDA has approved a new drug, Zepbound, from Lilly (Eli) & Co, which will be used to treat obesity. According to the World Health Organization, nearly 3 million people die from obesity annually worldwide. Therefore, Zepbound is expected to be in demand, allowing the issuer to increase its revenue while maintaining current profitability levels. According to Morgan Stanley, the global market for obesity treatment drugs was valued at USD 2.4 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 77 billion by 2030.
Today, we are focusing on the stock chart of Lilly (Eli) & Co. (LLY).
On the D1 timeframe, a support level has formed at 567.18 and resistance at 625.87. A relatively wide channel has developed, with a high probability of breaking through the upper boundary. The issuer's quotes are aiming to reach a historical maximum. In the event of a channel breakout to its width, the target could be the mark of 684.56. Additionally, following the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, investors expect a softening of monetary policy, which is conducive to stock market growth.
On the H1 timeframe, long positions from current positions with a target of 625.87 may be of interest. A long position can be held up to 684.56 in the medium term, while the consolidation of quotes above the level of 597.70 will be an important signal for the continuation of the upward trend.
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LLY Eli Lilly: $555 | a look into an Outperformerfundamentally sound as it addresses world problems
in the field of science medicine
it acquires great companies to grow its portfolio
and price wise lets investors get out at premium
yet provides ample time to those who are patient to accumulate during down years
impressive board
leadership is topnotch
if you missed the bottom and fomo in at the top or highs
be ready to sit on for 3 to 7 years to break even
as such an established cycle according to weather and healthcare
ELI LILLY targeting $705.00 if the 1D MA100 holds.Eli Lilly (LLY) has been on an incredible run ever since our March 01 buy signal (see chart below) that even broke above Channel Up:
We have been strong supporters of the company's fundamentals and those are translated into strong technical bullish patters, offering solid buy opportunities. Another such opportunity exists now as the price is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) near the bottom of the 2023 Channel Up.
As long as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is exactly on the Channel's bottom, holds, we remain bullish, targeting the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (similar to the May 22 High) at $705.00. If the 1D MA100 breaks though, we will take the loss and sell instead targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at $500.00 where a stronger buy opportunity exists.
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ELI LILLY Expected to rally above 700 if these conditions hold.LLY is holding the 1D MA50 on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.021, MACD = 2.060, ADX = 24.740), which indicates a strong demand level for the stock. The 1D RSI which is under a LH trendline shows that the stock price is at a pre bullish breakout accumulation like the last week of July and early August. If it holds the line, we will buy and aim a +30% rise (TP = 710.00), following a regression of -8% on each top.
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