MY NVIDIA THOUGHTS ($NVDA PT.2)A part two to my last video that I made on Nvidia going over how steep this next correction could be and what I'm doing to prepare for the next 15 years of innovation that will be driven by Nvidia
NVDA trade ideas
NVDA LONGNvda falling today intercepted the long-term trend line, expected to return to the highs in view of profits
IS NVIDIA SETTING UP FOR ANOTHER MULTI YEAR RALLY?In this video, I explain why I am bullish on NASDAQ:NVDA for the next 10 to 15 years despite this massive correction that has started today
Additionally, I also look ahead to what's potentially next around the corner, and how the worst case scenario is "we start another multi rally in 2027"
"Seriously Poof" A-I Balloon I had written here previously that Nvidia
could ultimately bring down the US stock market.
If you were watching Sunday evening football last night,
you were potentially shocked when the US stock market opened this morning.
News this weekend that Chinese start up Deep Seek
has developed and produced A-I discounted chips, to glowing tech reviews this weekend
sent NVDA down in a crash mode on Monday down 17 % and dropping
losing billions of dollar valuation in a single trading day.
What large institutional venture start up would now wish
to pour billions of dollars into Nvidea's A-1 chips,
when the same task result can be achieved at a fraction of the cost.
The technical chart of Nvidia breakaway gap down today says it all.
It is "thin air" down to 100....
" Seriously Poof"
THE_ UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
deepseek my booty holeIndicators have been trending down for months (check weekly chart). the selloff that began this morning has NOTHING to do with deepseek. Wall street is short and they needed someone to blame. Personally I thought it would be Trump, but they have chosen China instead, which in hindsight makes sense.
NVDA's Historical Bounce Data - This Is The Way.Forget all the nonsense about deepseek and evidence surrounding the NVDA chinese financial psyop that crushed the market today (primarily before the market even opened). It's all smoke and mirrors. Putting your money in the middle when the odds are in your favor is how you come out on top. That being said, there's a 90% rebound rate for NVidia's 10 biggest drops over the last - hence the reason I'm sitting on 75 calls with a strike of 125 that expire this Friday. The average next day rebound is 4.4% with the median being 5.3%. NVDA closed at $118.58, meaning there's a 90% chance that tomorrow we will see the price settle in the following ranges:
Bull Case: 60% probability: $124.50 - $126.90
Base Case: 30% probability: $120.95 - $123.30
Bear Case: 10% probability: $115 - $117
The DeepSeek Red Herring:
Speculating on the DeepSeek nonsense, the release of DeepSeek's R1 seems like an attempt to make the narrative fit the story rather than anything based on actual news:
*As someone that works w/ AI every day, DeepSeek v3 has been out for a long time, and R1 was released over a week ago. There isn't anything new about this story.
*This likely points to a coordinated dump of NVDA by 'whales' during premarket hours to push price action, and China has enough sway in the US markets to perform such a sway after hours. More than 12% of the 16.9% drop occurred in a short period before the market opened - limiting the influence/access of retail investors and thereby maximizing their leverage/power over the market.
*This could be a preemptive move by China in a financial cold war that has been developing. Trump recently touted investing $.5T in stargate (ai), and has proposed tariffs of 10% on all chinese goods starting in just 4 days (Feb 1st)
*NVDA is the perfect target to send a message. Most of their production is in Taiwan, and we know how China feels about that. The fact that China can't purchase their super chips is a big slap in the face. It'd be like China growing a bunch of crops in Idaho, only to not sell any food to the US while the US is starving.
*It's a known fact that bots place the majority of trades on the US market these days. China is a master at reverse engineering tech (if not outright stealing it). Knowing what triggers market bots would be easier than supplying a fake narrative.
Nothing about DeepSeek being the reason for the drop passes the smell test if for no other reason than from a logical standpoint...a couple If/Then scenarios:
1) If Deepseek did develop a model for $6M (which would be both insane and extremely unlikely) using outdated tech - Then NVDA's response that they should have their export restrictions removed and the 2nd largest AI market open to them is legitimate. Sales would skyrocket.
2) If this is Chinese misinformation and they're lying about using the A100 chips or the development costs, then why would they do that?
3) If China can't develop their own model without the A100s, what would they do to gain access to them? Then I think they steal the model - either the o1 (openAI) or llama (meta) model and tinkered with it just enough to optimize it as it's performance results are almost identical to openAI's o1 model - DeepSeek's Founder admits "there are no secrets in AI". While models can run on outdated hardware, you can't develop new models in a timely fashion on anything other than the A100s because they're 20x more powerful than the previous chips.
The question is was this China's attempt to trigger a black swan event in the US markets prior to the tariffs being enacted - a financial cold war if you will.
$NVDA.... "Buy the Dip" Value AreasWith the release of DeepSeek, it sent NASDAQ:NVDA tumbling 20%. If this continues over the coming weeks/months, here are some value areas to "buy the dip" if you're looking to get in.
Nvidia Shares Plunge More Than 17% Nvidia’s stock has experienced a significant drop in price in recent hours due to growing concerns about new competition from China, represented by the startup DeepSeek. This Asian startup is positioning itself to offer services similar to those of current AI industry leaders but at a much lower cost. Additionally, its open-source model, unlike competitors such as OpenAI , has generated high expectations, marking a new competitive challenge from China to the U.S. in this sector. Nvidia has led the steep declines in the tech sector in the short term.
Range Breakout:
Recent selling pressure has caused a breakout from a consistent lateral range that had been in place since late October 2024. The movement has been so aggressive that the price has also broken below the 100-period moving average and is now struggling with the 200-period moving average. If the strong bearish pressure continues in the coming sessions, it could jeopardize the long-standing upward trend visible on the daily chart prior to this event.
RSI:
The RSI indicator line has quickly adopted a bearish slope, moving decisively away from the neutral level of 50. However, recent price action has brought the line closer to the oversold zone at 30 , suggesting that the momentum of the current decline is significantly imbalanced. This could pave the way for small upward corrections in the short term.
Key Levels:
$114: Current support level corresponding to neutral zones from August and September 2024. Bearish oscillations breaking below this level could strengthen selling pressure and establish a sustained bearish bias in the market. However, this zone could also trigger new upward corrections in the coming sessions.
$131: The nearest resistance level, coinciding with the 100-period moving average. Oscillations near this level could restore market neutrality and potentially lead to a new lateral channel.
$144 : Distant resistance level. Oscillations reaching this level again would bring the strong long-term bullish trend back into focus.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
NVDA LESSON Now We Hunt For A DISCOUNT Nvidia⚪️ NVDA Another example of traders getting
trapped at the high.
⚪️ Also a prime example of traders
entering pre 150 break.
We don't need level 2 data to know
how HUMANS WILL ACT.
HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS PREDICTABLE.
✅️That is an edge we can use too................
🟢 Every trend starts with a breakout and yes if you take everyone you will never miss the NEXT BIG MOVE BUT.....
🟢 By doing so you will inevitabley give up a high win rate, and the fact is that most humans would rather be RIGHT than make MONEY.
⭐️THAT IS JUST SIMPLE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR.⭐️ IT'S STRANGE BUT TRUE⭐️
🌎Most traders would rather sacrifice more profit for a HIGHER WIN RATE🌍
Some of the most PROFITABLE TRADERS & INVESTORS in the WORLD have a WIN RATE BELOW 50%.❕️
❗️LET THAT SINK IT...❗️
⚠️ 🟢SeekingPips🟢 SAYS SAVE THIS GOLD LESSON NOW YOU CAN THANK ME LATER⚠️
NVDA closes below 200 Day SMANASDAQ:NVDA had a very bad day today with more than 550 billion $ Market Cap destroyed. This is one of the worst days for NVDA since March 2020. The 200 Da SMA price was 122 $. NVDA closed @ 118 $. This makes it a daily close below the 200 Day SMA. There might be some more downside and sideways movement before it starts a bullish upward trend before its earnings release on Feb 26. 6-12 Months down the line this might be one of the best buying opportunities. Long NVDA 110 $ - 120 $.
Buy the 18% Panic Dip!Analysts are targeting 180$ Average for NVIDA's price target. With the new 50 series GPUs being released and being sold out, NVIDIA still has room to grow despite all this growth. Seize the opportunity. The company is still fundamentally sound according to ZenRating and a1tradings stockbox. It is the top holding in hedge fund portfolios and in the S&P. This scare will turn around. It is inevitable.
NVIDIA's Record Drop: Live with TradeStation (TradingView Show)Join us once again LIVE with David Russell, Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation, as we dive into the stock market sell-off and what it means for your portfolio heading into February 2025. With heightened volatility, NVIDIA taking a hit, and AI-driven tools like DeepSeek offering new market analysis, it’s key to understand how to navigate the current turbulence. As January winds down, we’ll discuss strategies to stay ahead, leverage relative strength, and position for long-term success despite the ongoing downturn.
Here’s a sneak peek of what we’ll cover:
1. NVIDIA’s recent drop is tied to DeepSeek’s shift in AI pricing, raising concerns about future profitability. Investors are still assessing how this will affect NVIDIA’s growth trajectory.
2. While attention is on volatility, some stocks have quietly hit all-time highs, revealing hidden strength in overlooked sectors. These gains suggest opportunities many may be missing.
3. Emerging strength is especially evident in sectors like communications and certain industrials, with companies showing resilience and strong earnings. These sectors could offer solid value plays for those willing to look beyond the obvious.
4. Traders heading into 2025 should focus on managing risk and staying nimble, especially with potential rate hikes and geopolitical risks on the horizon. Flexibility and discipline will be essential.
5. As the Fed meeting and GDP report approach, the market is primed for volatility. These key releases could signal shifts in monetary policy or economic conditions, making it vital to stay informed and adjust your positions accordingly.
Don’t miss this session for actionable insights on how to navigate this market turbulence and set yourself up for success in 2025.
This show is sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation pursues a singular vision to offer the ultimate online trading platform and services for self-directed traders and investors across the equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC.
See below:
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NVIDIADeepSeek's emergence as a potential challenger to US AI companies is expected to significantly impact the US tech market. With its breakthrough models offering performance comparable to leading offerings at a fraction of the cost, DeepSeek may "puncture some of the capex euphoria" surrounding major US tech companies like Meta and Microsoft
Why I Believe NVIDIA (NVDA) Is Oversold and Ready to BounceI’ve been following NVIDIA (NVDA) closely, and while I’m aware of the recent negative news, I believe the market’s reaction has been completely overblown. To me, this pullback has pushed NVDA into oversold territory—not because of technical indicators like RSI (which I’m not relying on), but because the price is now sitting at a strong demand level that historically has seen solid buying interest.
In my opinion, the market has overpriced the impact of the news. NVIDIA’s fundamentals remain strong, and I don’t see anything here that fundamentally changes the long-term story of the company. This feels more like a short-term overreaction that’s created an opportunity to get in at a discount.
DeepSeek: Is the $2 trillion panic justified? A small Chinese AI startup, DeepSeek, is responsible for erasing $2 trillion from the US equity market, within 12 hours.
Nvidia's stock is down ~17% at the time of writing, while shares of other US-based AI-related companies, including Oracle, Broadcom, and AMD, have fallen between 12% and 20%. Microsoft, a major investor in OpenAI, has also dropped more than 3%. However, Apple stock has gained, with the market seemingly dismissive of its Apple Intelligence product.
DeepSeek launched a free, open-source large language model in December, reportedly developed in just two months for under $6 million. This news and its implications are only just filtering into mainstream market consciousness now following the release of DeepSeek's chatbot app.
Investors are now questioning why US firms are spending hundreds of billions on Nvidia chips when a startup claims to achieve significant results at a fraction of the cost and raised concerns about the US losing its perceived dominance in the AI sector.
However, industry figures, including Elon Musk and Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, are scrambling to change the narrative though. Some suggest that DeepSeek likely has access to 50,000 NVIDIA Hopper GPUs—despite their claims of using just 10,000 A100 GPUs—due to U.S. export restrictions.
NVIDIA Wave Analysis 27 January 2025
- NVIDIA broke support zone
- Likely to fall to support level 115.00
NVIDIA opened today with the sharp downward gap breaking the support zone located between the support level 126.65 (former monthly low from December) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from August.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active short-term impulse wave i, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from November.
NVIDIA can be expected to fall further to the next support level 115.00 (former monthly low from October).
Prediction Jan-Mid FebI've been totally wrong with dates, but my price points have been there the past month.
I don't use Fib., only EMA, MFI, CMF, MACD and chart analysis
Prediction: Something is going to happen news-wise around Jan (The time someone is coming into office...) which will correct Nvidia and SPY (SPY is due for a 5-10% correction, historically and for continuing bullish health.
What do you guys think?
NVDA ... New Nvidia analysis with linesJust a few ideas for line based on past trends and support structure connections.
Not one to care where this goes, but use your own indicators to see which of these lines seem most important to you.
10 min:
30 min:
i dont know guys!I don’t know, guys, but I think this stock is getting interesting. Just last Friday, the first fractal of the drop formed, and now we’ll see the continuation. All this activity is happening within a megaphone pattern, which makes me think NVDA’s price will surpass its all-time high. The optimization of LLM models doesn’t affect anything negatively—it only helps them become more popular and drives more chip sales.
We’re on the brink of launching the Stargate project, and let’s not overlook the fact that both the hardware and software used for AI are evolving. Nothing is set in stone, which is why sales will continue to be monumental. A clear example is that if these models become optimized enough, we could see the massive use of new, more compact chips for household and personal appliances, robots, etc. So don’t be afraid—join the revolution!
NVIDIA: Crashed on the 1D MA200 after 2 years. Last stand.NVIDIA is approaching oversold valuations on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.351, MACD = -0.820, ADX = 27.301) following the DeepSeek news and breached its 1D MA200 for the first time in 2 years. It was January 13th 2023 when we last saw the price trading on this trendline. The 1W MA50 is just a click under and there is no other way to put it than this being NVDA's last hold. The stock is at -23% from its ATH and the pattern that has to hold in order to provide an immediate rebound is the Megaphone whose LL trendline we just hit today. As long as this holds and the 1D RSI starts reversing near the oversold level, NVIDIA should technically test the 153.00 Resistance in a month or so. Failure to hold this pattern and a weekly candle closing under the 1W MA50, may result in a bubble burst and test of the 101.50 and 91.50 support levels.
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$NVDA, Long, TP>25%NASDAQ:NVDA , Long, TP>25%
Fundamentally the stock is good.
Choose an entry point and do not forget about a protective order if you are trading with leverage.
Don't risk it if you're not sure.
Good luck to everyone.
NVDA long-term three wavesJust to mark it as a reminder to myself that the cycle could be very long and don't buy until it touches the proper level
