continued retracement to the downside4HR TF: Immediate resistence tested and failed to break above.20EMA acted as second Resistence. BTC is likely not ready yet for rally to the upside.
BEARUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin technical analysis + trade planThe chart shows a clear falling wedge formation. This is a bullish reversal pattern that suggests a potential upward breakout.
Price is nearing the wedge's apex, indicating that a breakout might be imminent.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels:
$88,671.83 (near-term critical support)
$86,000.00 (strong psychological support)
Resistance Levels:
$95,497.11 (short-term resistance near breakout zone)
$108,329.96 (target resistance post-breakout)
Indicators:
VWMC Cipher B Divergences:
Bullish divergence appears on the indicator, aligning with the falling wedge's bullish potential.
RSI:
RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions, which often precede a rebound.
Money Flow Index (MFI):
MFI is oversold, suggesting incoming buying pressure.
Stochastic Oscillator:
Stochastic is in the oversold region (<20), showing high potential for a bullish reversal.
Market Sentiment:
Given the oversold indicators and bullish pattern, the market is primed for a potential upside movement. However, confirmation of the breakout is critical.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Enter long near the wedge's lower boundary (~$90,000), with a tight stop loss below $88,000.
Conservative Entry:
Wait for a breakout above the wedge's resistance (~$96,000) and enter after confirmation with a retest of the breakout level.
Stop-Loss Placement:
Place stop-loss below the nearest support level:
Aggressive traders: $87,500
Conservative traders: $92,000 (post-breakout retest failure)
Profit Targets:
First Target: $108,329.96 (major resistance level post-breakout)
Second Target: $114,000 (psychological level, based on historical price action)
Risk Management:
Risk no more than 1-2% of your portfolio per trade.
Use position sizing to balance risk-to-reward ratios (minimum 1:3).
Monitoring
Volume: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by increased volume.
Candle Structure: A solid close above $96,000 validates the move.
Invalidation:
If the price falls below $88,000, the wedge pattern is invalidated, signaling further downside.
Alternative Scenario (Bearish):
If Bitcoin breaks below $86,000, expect a test of lower levels. Potential targets include $82,000 and $78,000.
Bitcoin is poised for a significant move. The falling wedge, oversold indicators, and strong support levels suggest an imminent bullish breakout. However, patience for confirmation is key to minimizing risk and maximizing gains. Adjust your strategy dynamically based on market conditions.
Are we in for a 27% Correction?Recognition of Previous Mistake (Rising Wedge vs. Ascending Channel)
Recent price action has revealed a shift in the structure. In my previous technical analysis I identified as a rising wedge. Upon breaking out of the rising wedge and further review, it now appears that Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel. This structural adjustment suggests that while the market remains in a bullish trajectory overall, there are signs of weakening momentum, warranting a bearish outlook in the near future.
**Read In full to get historical validations to validate my theory**
Key Factors Supporting a Bearish Bias
Bearish Divergence on Weekly Time Frame
On the higher time frame, bearish divergence is evident, as price continues to make higher highs while key momentum indicators, such as the RSI, make lower highs. This divergence suggests that the current uptrend is losing strength, increasing the likelihood of a reversal.
Bearish Divergence on Daily Time Frame
A similar pattern is observed on the daily time frame, providing further evidence of weakening momentum. Combining divergences on both time frames strengthens the bearish case, as it highlights misalignment between price action and underlying market strength.
Loss of Momentum Within an Ascending Channel
Price is currently constrained within an ascending channel. While this structure supports the continuation of the uptrend in the short term, it often signals a gradual loss of momentum, especially when combined with other bearish signals. Breakout scenarios typically favor the downside in such cases, aligning with the broader bearish outlook.
Stochastic RSI Analysis
Weekly Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI is in the overbought region, and a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line) has occurred. This signal further strengthens the probability of a reversal or significant correction from current levels. Overbought conditions on higher time frames are particularly significant as they indicate market exhaustion.
Daily Time Frame:
The stochastic RSI has not yet reached overbought levels, suggesting that the price has some room to move higher in the short term before a bearish reversal materializes. This indicates that patience is warranted before entering a short trade.
Historical Validation
Historical analysis of similar scenarios (March and July) reinforces the reliability of the current bearish setup:
In both instances, price was constrained within an ascending channel.
Bearish divergences were present on both weekly and daily time frames.
The stochastic RSI aligned with bearish crossovers on the weekly and daily charts, signaling strong entry points for downside trades.
Current Market Outlook
Based on the above analysis, the bearish bias is supported by the following:
Loss of momentum within the ascending channel.
Bearish divergence on both weekly and daily time frames.
Overbought stochastic RSI on the weekly chart, with a pending overbought signal on the daily.
While the bearish setup appears robust, caution is advised as the daily stochastic RSI suggests that Bitcoin could see additional upside in the short term before the anticipated correction takes place.
My Trading Plan
Wait for Confirmation:
Monitor the daily stochastic RSI and wait for it to reach the overbought region, followed by a bearish crossover (K-line crossing below the D-line). This will serve as an ideal signal to enter a short trade.
Key Levels to Watch:
Channel Resistance: Watch for price rejection near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which would reinforce bearish momentum.
Channel Support: A confirmed breakdown below the lower boundary of the ascending channel would act as a trigger for a bearish continuation.
%20 Correction on Bitcoin?With usdt dominance looking like it's bottoming, i expect one more all time high before a %20-25 dump on bitcoin, eventual targets are still higher at 127-155k range.
Bitcoin 2025 Strategic Insights!🚀 Bitcoin 2025: Strategic Insights!
Historical EMA (50 & 200) trends signal key support zones around $80K-$90K, with potential dips to $70K based on past cycles. Institutions forecast highs between $120K-$200K in 2025, driven by ETF inflows and global adoption.
Bitcoin to $84,000? Altcoins Christmas Dump Incoming?🚀 Bitcoin to $84,000? Altcoins Christmas Dump Incoming? 🎄📉
💡 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Analysis:
The market is heating up! Could Bitcoin skyrocket to $84,000 and break new all-time highs? 📈 Recent price movements suggest strong bullish momentum, sparking optimism among investors. But what does this mean for altcoins? 🤔
🎄 Christmas Dump for Altcoins?
Historically, the holiday season has seen market corrections, and this year might be no different. Here’s why:
1️⃣ Rising Bitcoin Dominance: As Bitcoin captures attention, funds may shift from altcoins to BTC for short-term gains.
2️⃣ Altcoin Selling Pressure: Traders reallocating to Bitcoin could drive altcoin prices down.
3️⃣ 2024 Opportunities: If Bitcoin consolidates after its run, altcoins could regain momentum in the new year.
🔥 My Take:
This could be an ideal time to re-evaluate your strategy. Are you:
Holding strong with altcoins, waiting for their next breakout? 🛡️
Riding the Bitcoin wave to potential new highs? 🌊
📢 Let’s discuss! What’s your play as we approach the holiday season? Share your strategy below! ⬇️
Bitcoin: To the MoonThis is just a chart about Bitcoin.
I think it will reach 136k by EoY.
I believe we are melting up and value is being grabbed rapidly.
In my opinion, any type of dip in the 90k-100k region is a buy right now.
As you can see, 70k-75k is on the table for a rapid breakdown. We don't want that. Watch out for it.
This is only my opinion until the EoY, Respective of the lag time between Jan. 20th Inauguration.
I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas!
Mr. Storm.
BTCUSD look like bullish as getting channel as support BTCUSD look like bullish as getting channel as support
hello traders hers his my analysis for BTCUSDD and you can take aslo share your ideas too
BTCUSD sideways move in channel and getting support from channel
long position will taken from here with proper SL and TP
key Areas
Entry zone
$95400 to $95200
TP $96500
TP $97500
TP $98500
SL $94500
FOR MORE IDEAS AND SIGNALS PLZ LIKE SHARE COMMENT AND FOLLOW
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BTC ABOUT TO DUMP?The daily time frame candle from yesterday provides a significant reversal indication. on the monthly and weekly there is also clear exhaustion being shown representing positions being liquidated.
The bears could potentially take over very soon for a bear market as we enter into 2025.
BTCUSD short 4HWhile everybody is bullish I see a short opportunity on BTC.
According to the chart first good support is at 91k so that's my TP
BTC Seeking Bullish DivergenceYou have been here long enough to know what bottom signal I am looking for, right?
RSI is oversold on the 4-hour chart, so now I will look for bullish divergence to signal at least a local bottom. We don’t need to see it, but it certainly helps.
Elliott Wave View: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Has Reached Inflection AreaShort Term Elliott Wave View in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) suggests rally from 6 September 2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 6 September, wave 1 ended at 66508 and dips in wave 2 ended at 58867. The crypto-currency has extended higher in wave 3 towards 103647 as the 1 hour chart below. Pullback in wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 97917 and wave ((b)) ended at 99577. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 92310 which completed wave 4 in higher degree.
Bitcoin has resumed higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 101251 and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 94249 as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 98752 and wave (b) ended at 101407. Wave (c) lower ended at 94249 which completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The crypto-currency has extended higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 102582 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 99250. Wave (iii) higher ended at 107821. Pullback in wave (iv) is in progress as an expanded flat before it turns higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 92310 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing and the crypto-currency to extend higher.
$88K-$90K BTC | @jonktrades on XCorrective wave 4 imo for CRYPTOCAP:BTC here with targets at FWB:88K -$90K.
Expanded flat at play here, with entries at the .886 Gartley.
Btcusd. Short to 92600- 93,000 area A retest of the key area of 97,700 area signalled a short. A further retest of the minor area of 97500 reconfirmed the short signal.
TP1: 93,000
TP2: 92600
BTC/USDBTC/USD - There is a high probability chance to swipe the available liquidity from 91,000 area as there is soo many LQ. Price respected the strong trend line. Now previous support become new resistance from 4Hrs. Lets see how price play.
Bitcoin Santa Rally My view for year-end rally in Bitcoin is based on seasonal and global liquidity (GLI)
My projection for the Treasury General Account (TGA) is an increase from $740B today to a peak of $880B on 12/17 (which will be negative for Bitcoin and assets) and then a decrease (positive liquidity) of $200+ Billion down to a low of $630B on 1/10. This will be the window to buy a dip IMO. These figures do not take into account any additional reduction from the debt ceiling being reinstated on 1/1... which could add additional liquidity not accounted for as it is an unknown. That said, the debt ceiling debate is less of a factor now that we had a red sweep in the elections and the republicans control the votes, thus unlikely to be much of a "debate"...
Simple but my view.
BTCUSD It's time to dump what you have while it's still profitabWhat to do and where to run to?
Friends, don't forget to click like 🚀 under the idea, it's important.
Divergence in trading is a multidirectional movement of the price chart and indicator. On the chart, the price of an asset moves in one direction, while the technical indicator that follows it moves in the opposite direction.
Divergence warns that the current price trend may weaken and in some cases may lead to a change in price direction.
In this case, we observe a double bearish divergence on the 1D timeframe. This is a powerful correction signal. All traders see it, which will logically lead to fixing positions or opening shorts.
What will happen next?
Two main scenarios now:
1. Sellers are active and as a consequence - local correction and sideways from current values.
2. Sellers are active, but the market maker is pushing prices higher and removing sellers' stops. This will lead to a triple divergence and will further strengthen the selling. As a result - a powerful correction and trading at the lower levels.
At the moment, both scenarios have equal priority and the decision will be determined by the balance of power in the moment. The scales of the market maker may tip to either side.
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BTCUSD 4H TFWill be looking for possible longs on BTCUSD due to the strength of the demand area found at the zone. once price action confirm will pull the trigger at 91800
BTC/USD Showing Signs of Wycokoff Accumulation on 15min chart.BTC is starting to show the signs of a Wycokoff Accumulation pattern on the 15 min chart. I think it is too early to use it to make a trade as the general market sentiment is unknown when New York trading opens up on Monday. If the S&P 500 and other exchanges open down on Monday I would not expect this pattern to continue and BTC could move down further.
If you look at other Alt coins such as ETH and LTC you will see a similar pattern but the S&P 500 chart look poised to open down on Monday so I am personally not trading any of these patterns until more information comes it.
Trading carefully. End of year trading is always a wild card.
BTC 2023 FractalBTC is following the fall breakout to spring peak fractal. Similar to the previous cycle (and 2023), I think we see a local top in the spring, a summer lull, then a blowoff top late summer to early fall. I think 200k plus is definitely on the table.
ATCryptoScan: BTCUSD upside target in mid-Dec, what's next?Previously marked that BTCUSD would make a Mid-Dec 2024 top, at about 107K.
Happened 17 Dec as previously marked!
DONE and checked sweetly.
This was folllowed by an a large bearish marubozu candlestick downwards which broke back into the decision box, indicating that it would go out the other side. And it did, just yesterday, but it rebounded within the day to end off back in the box with a dragonfly doj i like candlestick... this is a bullish indication.
Thing is, technicals are bearish, including the modified VolDiv (dotted line, lower panel) which shows some weakening; and includes a MACD crossdown.
Waiting to see if the supports are going to break.
Am expecting it to break down... Previously downside target 75,000
But tendency for over estimates for downside in a bull run, so the new moderated downside target is 88,000 at the end of 2024.
BTCUSD is looking for a nice bullishs start to 2025...
Watch for it.
