Btc trade with technical analysis.Btc forecast and technical analysis H1 Time Frame next Move possible.not financial advice.
BEARUSD trade ideas
Bollinger Bands Analysis & BTC/USD Accumulation StrategyBased on the BTC/USD chart with the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 12-hour time frame, it is evident that the price has repeatedly touched or breached the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. Each time the price enters this oversold zone, BTC/USD experiences a rebound within a relatively short period, suggesting a strong accumulation pattern by market participants. This pattern is consistent, as the price has never remained in oversold conditions for more than three consecutive candles (36 hours) before rebounding. This indicates that selling pressure is only temporary before buyers step in and push the price back up.
Given this pattern, a suitable trading strategy is to buy when the price re-enters the accumulation zone around 95,400, which serves as a potential buy area. If the price drops further, the next strong support level is at 89,280, which could act as a crucial validation point before considering a trend reversal. An entry can be executed when the price touches the lower band and bullish price action confirmation appears, such as pin bar, doji, or bullish engulfing candlesticks, indicating that buyers are taking control of the market. The potential upside target is around 108,160, serving as the nearest resistance level that could be reached if the previous bullish pattern repeats.
From a risk management perspective, a stop loss should not be placed immediately upon the price touching the lower band, as past patterns show that BTC/USD has not remained in oversold conditions for more than three candles. However, if the oversold condition persists until the fourth candle (48 hours after the initial signal), this would indicate that selling pressure is stronger than before and that the short-term trend has likely shifted.
Based on historical patterns, the price is likely to rebound once it enters the oversold zone (highlighted in yellow on the chart) and forms bullish confirmation. Therefore, an accumulation approach at the key support level remains a strategy with high profit potential, provided that risk management is applied with discipline. If the price continues to decline and remains oversold for 48 hours, the bullish scenario may be invalidated, and a safer re-entry strategy should be considered. By understanding this pattern, traders can make more confident decisions without rushing while remaining alert to potential trend shifts in the market.
88k is my stop profit nowLooks like there's something interesting in trend lines originating from that point. Few times when price cross them there was some spectacular result. One time there was fat wick and spring. Worth keeping eye on those.
The Path to $158K – A Two-Phase Bull RunBitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin is on track to reach $134,000 by April 2025, following the natural progression of the bull market cycle. However, as BTC approaches this key level, profit-taking and market dynamics will likely trigger a pullback phase, setting the stage for the second and final leg of the bull run.
Phase 1: The $134K Target and Pullback (April–July 2025)
BTC’s bull market momentum is expected to push the price toward $134,000 in April 2025, marking a critical milestone.
As this level is reached, a selling phase will emerge, leading to a correction between $62,000 and $72,000 from May to July 2025.
This retracement will serve as a healthy market reset, allowing for renewed accumulation before the next explosive move.
Phase 2: The Final Bull Run to $158K (Nov–Dec 2025)
After the correction, BTC will enter the second phase of the bull cycle, characterized by renewed investor interest and fresh capital inflows.
A new wave of hype and adoption will propel Bitcoin toward its final bull market peak of $158,000 by November–December 2025.
This mirrors historical market cycles, where a strong initial rally, followed by a correction, leads to an ultimate parabolic run before the market cools down.
Key Price Levels to Watch:
Target 1: $134,000 (April 2025) → Key milestone before the pullback.
Pullback Range: $62,000–$72,000 (May–July 2025) → Profit-taking phase and market reset.
Final Bull Run Target: $158,000 (Nov–Dec 2025) → Peak of the bull market before a potential cycle shift.
Summary: History Will Repeat Itself
Bitcoin's bull market progression follows a well-established pattern of rapid price appreciation, sharp corrections, and a final euphoric rally. With $134K as the first major target, a pullback to $62K–$72K will act as the foundation for the second explosive phase, ultimately driving BTC to its anticipated $158K peak by late 2025.
As always, market cycles repeat, and this time, history appears to be following the same script once again.
BTCUSD: Crossing of 4H MA100 brings enormous rally.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.096, MACD = -559.600, ADX = 41.025) as it is rising aggressively today and just hit the 1D MA50. This is its major Resistance level, which when crossed has caused the two main rallies of 2025 so far. The first (Dec 30th-Jan 7th) crossed the 0.618 Fibonacci before pulling back, while the second (Jan 9th-Jan 20th) made a full +20% rally. As you realize, if we do get a 1D candle close over the 1D MA50, the target for the modest scenario of Fib 0.618 is TP1 = 103,500 and if it continues (which as some point it will since the Bull Cycle has at least another 6-9 months more) for the good case scenario of +20%, the target will be TP2 = 113,000.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
BTCUSD next move(expecting a bullish move)(18-09-2024)Go through the analysis carefully, and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for BTCUSD (18-09-2024) (SHORT TERM)
Current price- 59400
"if Price stay above 57400 then next target is 61000, 64000 and below that 56,000 .
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk 2% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
Bitcoin's Next Move? Key Levels to Watch Based on Market Trends!🚀 Bitcoin's Next Move? Key Levels to Watch Based on Market Trends!
📊 Bitcoin has entered a crucial consolidation zone between $92,805 and $103,757. Will it break out to new highs or drop sharply? Let’s analyze the technical and fundamental factors driving BTC’s next move!
📈 Technical Analysis: Critical Price Levels
🔹 Resistance & All-Time High (ATH)
- Bitcoin recently hit an ATH of $109,356 (Jan 2025) but faced strong rejection near the upper boundary of the Primary Ascending Channel.
- The price is currently consolidating between $92,805 - $103,757, forming a critical decision zone.
🔹 Bearish Breakdown Scenario
- A daily close below $92,800 would confirm a bearish breakdown.
- This could lead to a strong drop toward the first support level of $79,579 and further down to $71,400.
🔹 Bullish Breakout Scenario
If Bitcoin breaks above $103,757, it could signal a continuation toward ATH levels at $109,356 and potentially new highs beyond $120K.
📰 Fundamental Analysis: Market Sentiment & BTC News
📢 Bitcoin Funding Rate Turns Neutral! What Does This Mean?
- The funding rate on top exchanges has turned neutral, meaning that longs and shorts are now balanced after recent volatility.
- Historically, when BTC neutralizes funding after a strong rally, two scenarios usually play out: 1️⃣ Bullish Accumulation: A period of sideways movement before another breakout.
2️⃣ Sell-Off Risk: Weak bullish momentum leading to a sharp correction.
🔥 This news aligns perfectly with our $92,800 support level—if BTC holds above it, we could see another rally. But if it breaks below, expect a deep correction!
📢 Final Thought: Watch These Key Levels Closely!
💥 Above $103,757 → Bullish breakout → Next target: $109K+
⚠️ Below $92,800 → Bearish breakdown → Targets: $79K & $71K
✅ Will Bitcoin break above $103K or drop to $79K?
✅ Comment your BTC price target below! Let’s discuss! 👇🔥
🚀 Do you think BTC will break above $103K or drop to $79K? Comment your thoughts below! 👇🔥
#Bitcoin's long-term road plan!-396 days Processed Between 2013 High and 2015 Bottom!
-365 days Processed Between 2017 High and 2018 Bottom!
-365 days Processed Between 2021 High and 2022 Bottom!
-1065 days processed between 2015 Bottom and 2017 Peak!
-1065 days processed between 2018 Bottom and 2021 Peak!
-1430 days Processed Between 2015 Bottom and 2018 Bottom!
-1430 days Processed Between 2018 Bottom and 2022 Bottom!
If the 1065 model is processed between 2022 Bottom and 2025 Peak, I think we will see a local peak in October.
If the 365 days Model is processed, I think we will see a 2025 Peak in October and a 2026 October Bottom.
I will be grateful if you appreciate...
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
BITCOIN daily time frame. Price testing a crucial support levelBTC/USD – Daily Chart Analysis (Feb 13, 2025)
📊 Market Structure:
Rising Wedge Pattern: BTC is currently trading inside a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Key Horizontal Support Levels:
$73,074 – Strong previous support, potential target if a breakdown occurs.
$55,247 – Major support zone from past price action.
🔑 Key Technical Indicators:
RSI at 43.52: Shows weakening momentum but not yet in oversold territory.
Volume Decline: Volume appears to be decreasing, which may indicate a loss of bullish momentum.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
BTC needs to hold the lower boundary of the wedge (~$95,000).
A breakout above the wedge (~$100,000-$105,000) could push BTC to new highs, possibly testing $110,000+.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown of the wedge could trigger a sharp decline toward $73,000 first.
If selling pressure increases, BTC could even drop further to $55,000, a major support area.
📌 Conclusion: BTC is at a critical point—if it breaks above the wedge, we may see further upside. However, a breakdown could lead to a correction toward lower support levels. Traders should watch the wedge breakout/breakdown carefully! 🚀📉
No longs by far. 90-92K stands in focusMorning folks,
Last time we were speaking about possible upside bounce to ~102.5K area. But BTC has failed three attempts to move out from support level where it stands. Despite that upside momentum was not bad.
With the recent high CPI on the table and weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern on the back, we suggest that downside action could start at any time. First target will be ~90-92K area just because this is daily oversold. Weekly pattern suggest target around 80-81K.
By this reason we do not consider any new intraday longs by far. Besides, on daily chart today we could get bearish grabber that supports adea of 90-92K lows level.
Crypto market crash begins in 14 weeks / May 2025For the past decade, since 2012, a specific pattern has emerged that has consistently proven to be a reliable predictor of when the next market top will occur.
The first 2-day life cross (red circles) that prints after the previous market top has been an accurate predictor of the time until the next market top since 2012.
At most that time is 745 days away and could be as little as 550 days away.
The market top is in not more than 14 weeks from now, mid May 2025. And potentially as early as March 10th at 681 days as with the 2021 bull run.
Is this time different?
Ww
Bitcoin consolidating, potential 4h gap fil?This chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USD) on a 4-hour timeframe, currently consolidating within a 4-hour imbalance (gap) zone. The price appears to be ranging in this area, potentially building liquidity before making a decisive move.
The projected path in purple suggests that Bitcoin might first move upward to fill the higher 4-hour gap, seeking liquidity in that region. Once liquidity is grabbed, a reversal to the downside is anticipated, implying a bearish continuation after mitigating the inefficiency above.
Traders might be watching for signs of rejection in the upper gap before confirming bearish momentum. However, if the price breaks through the higher gap with strength, it could invalidate the bearish scenario.
Bitcoin 2025: Updated Map, A New Market ViewGood evening my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, what a wonderful day.
I hope you are feeling good and you should, Bitcoin is going up.
Bitcoin is growing. Bitcoin looks good. Bitcoin is getting better everyday, doing better and is about to explode. When Bitcoin grows, everything Crypto grows. When everything Crypto grows, the world is happy.
When the world is happy innovation takes place.
Innovation further improves the comforts in our lives. It makes for a better life experience.
Life is all about experience so having a better experience is all we want. And that's exactly what we should get.
In this case, we can support Bitcoin with its growth and this growth will translate in a better life for all those involved and those that are soon to join the trend. The present is already digital. The future of money is Bitcoin. Crypto is here to stay.
Namaste.
____
When we look at the chart and track the market, we tend to develop a map. This map is not a fixed reality but tends to be updated as new data comes in.
Think of a jigsaw with all the pieces of the puzzle scattered all around. With each action and reaction that happens within the market, the pieces of the puzzle start to fit in their place. With every single interaction across all areas of life, the map can continue to be updated.
When we look at one chart and consider one chart only, we tend to develop a picture, the map. But, when we consider more charts, many charts, as well as other factors, a bigger picture starts to develop and this picture has more strength than the previous one because it contains more information.
The jigsaw pieces are now all organized and they only need to pushed to their rightful place.
—The bull-market can last until late 2025.
In 2021, the "orthodox end" of the bull-market happened in April. In November we get the famous double top followed by the start of a long-term correction, bear-market or wave 4 in Elliott terms.
This time we are not likely to witness a long-term double-top but rather a blow-off top. Refer back to December 2017 to get an idea as to how a blow-off top looks like.
Let's say the action starts March 2025. Late February to be exact.
Instead of a jump from 100,000 to 150,000 in a matter of weeks or days, it can take months with prices growing and momentum slowly building up. Growing but slow and steady growth.
May tends to be a time for corrections but a correction can be something quick and short. A correction within a bull-market can last 4 weeks or 8 weeks. A very long correction can last 12 weeks but not more.
After the first half of the year, growing and growing strong, we get one stop and after this stop we get the bull-run phase. The bull-run phase starts as any other bullish wave, but the climax is a massive event where everything aims to hit its highest level before the cycle ends.
Instead of seeing new All-Time Highs for the Altcoins before the end of Q2, we are likely aiming for late Q3 or somewhere in Q4.
Now, some pairs already hit new All-Time Highs. Bitcoin is really strong. But there are thousands and thousands of projects, many of those are trading at bottom prices and this is the majority. This majority is what I am talking about. It can take 3 months (March, April & May) for them to recover and enter the bullish zone, 3-5 levels up, and the latter part of 2025 for the bull-run.
Too hard? Let's recap.
—Bitcoin is going up.
Namaste.
TIME TO UPDATE TRADEWell....well....well, not to bad for bitcoin its been holding very well in that trading range but now that we are about to finish the 4hrs Bearish Cycle is TIME to change sides and the next move is up . Any flush BIG RED candle is just to go an rekt all those poor souls with stops below the $93k area and then UP to go and rekt the Bears that entered too early and continue higher for another test to the $100k area and very probably to its Zero Line . We are about to close Week #8 and price still in the same area. Buckle Up ladies and gentlemen we are heading for a wild ride.
BTC/USD - Markets are Shifting?Dear Friends,
An observation only:
1) BTC is in a new "Contraction" phase.
2) "Expansion" will follow.
New Fair Value @ 97151.40
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
I expect a sharp move after reaching the bottom of the circle anI expect a sharp move after reaching the bottom of the circle and the yellow line. I expect Bitcoin to experience a few hours of volatility from this range.
Accumulation before Low price?Bitcoin continue in the same range price, but the indicators continue showing more probabilities to next movement to lower price, we have a divergence in the MACD and the moving averages shown pressing to low in the next days in this day graphic, at the same time, in my analysis in the week graphic the trend continue to go up the price, conclusion the probability is go down first near to $87000 for rebote to increase again
Bitcoin: Watch Low 90K Test For Long Setup.Bitcoin is near the lower part of its broader bullish consolidation. This means swing trade shorts are higher risk, while longs lower risk. How you navigate this area depends on the time frame you use to evaluate your trade signal and risk. The key location to watch for the coming week is the 93,500 to 92,500 support AREA which is part of a larger support zone. A bullish retrace from this area offers potential of at least 2 to 3K points which is a conservative estimation. IF this support area gives way (decisive break of 90K), then all bets are off until new levels establish themselves.
Recent movements have been wild thanks to all of the drama in the news. People who consume and react to news events will often find themselves stuck in painful positions. Chasing news, reacting to dramatic price movements and/or random signals/patterns on charts in leads to random results. You want to capitalize on participants who make these mistakes by anticipating their behavior and this is best done by evaluating ONLY TWO market components: support/resistance and trend. As simplistic and obvious as this may sound, this is the information that helps you build a more accurate lens to judge a market.
Both of these components depend on the time fame you choose to operate. For this analysis, that is the swing trade time frame. Recent trend can be categorized as range bound. That has been clear for weeks now. In range bound environments, support and resistance levels have a greater tendency to HOLD until one side eventually breaks If we zoom out on Bitcoin (monthly) we can see this consolidation is likely a broader Wave 4, or a broader higher low. IF
I have to bet on a side, it would be bullish. For me this means expect more for longs, ESPECIALLY from major support areas and LESS from shorts, ESPECIALLY from resistance areas on this time frame.
For example: with this context in mind and planning to take a swing trade, having a price point in mind (93K AREA see arrow), you now WAIT for confirmation in the anticipated area. IF it appears, risk can be defined around 89,500. That's 3.5K points which may sound like a lot, but the profit potential if it bounces is AT LEAST 4 to 5K points based on the current levels. How you manage this all depends on your risk tolerance and account size but in my opinion it is a risk worth taking.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD🚨 **#Bitcoin Update** 🚨
Despite the pump, **BTC remains bearish** 📉. Price is hitting key resistance (**$98.5K–$99K**) inside a premium zone.
🔻 **Rejection = Deeper drop incoming**
🎯 Next downside targets: ** GETTEX:97K , $95K**
Unless bulls break $100K with force, **this is still a sell zone.** Stay sharp. #BTC #Crypto
BTC bout to fallBreakdown observed in BTC and after the retest entry might get activated and BTC might approach the given targets in the chart.
