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BEARUSD trade ideas

Black Swans? Bitcoin and Key Levels AheadHello, dear friends!🩷 I hope You all had an amazing holiday season and wrote down Your wish lists for the year ahead. For me, my biggest wish is peace in my country and the chance to sleep peacefully at night. I pray that a larger-scale war never breaks out, as the world feels like it’s hanging by a thread. But let’s set that aside for now and take a look at Bitcoin’s 6-hour chart, which is showing a very intriguing setup. The price is once again aiming to test the 92k level—a key support zone I’ve highlighted in previous posts. Most likely, the price will bounce off this level and recover slightly to the 97–98k range before continuing its decline. In the medium term, there’s a chance we could see Bitcoin drop to 90k, 87k, or even as low as 84k. If no “Black Swan” events (as many global media outlets have been speculating about) occur, we might see growth instead. However, it’s too early to say for sure—we’ll have to keep monitoring the situation. Have You heard about some of these potential Black Swans? ● Geopolitical Conflicts Escalation of current conflicts or the emergence of new ones (e.g., in Asia or the Middle East). Rising tensions between major powers like the U.S. and China. Sudden regime changes in strategically important countries. ● Economic Crises Collapse of major banks or financial institutions. Sharp interest rate hikes or defaults by heavily indebted nations. A new wave of inflation or a global recession. ● Technological Disruptions Breakthroughs in AI destabilizing labor markets or sparking social unrest. Major cyberattacks on infrastructure, financial systems, or governments. Challenges in adopting new technologies in energy or transportation. ● Environmental Disasters Accelerating climate change causing devastating weather events. Large-scale ecological accidents, like oil spills or nuclear incidents. Global issues with access to fresh water or food supplies. ● Pandemics or Biological Threats The emergence of new viruses or mutations of existing ones spreading rapidly. Biological attacks or lab leaks. ● Social and Political Upheaval Mass protests or revolutions in key regions. The rise of populism and anti-globalist sentiment. Migration crises caused by wars or climate change. ● Unexpected Events in the Crypto Market Regulatory bans or sudden changes in crypto legislation. Collapse of major exchanges or projects. Rapid adoption of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and their impact on the crypto market. If You ask for my opinion, Black Swans aren’t something you can talk about or predict—that’s why they’re called Black Swans! They happen precisely because they’re impossible to foresee. They strike when no one is expecting them! What do you think? Are You bracing for a market crash, or are you feeling optimistic? Stay tuned for updates, and let me know your thoughts in the comments. Let’s navigate this market together!💪 Sincerely Yours, Kateryna 💛
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by RocketBomb
12
Wen Sell BTC ? | Bitcoin Price Action Scenarios for 2025Alexa play the Mingle Game Song “Round and Round” you may watch Squid Game2 and enjoy it but 2025 is exactly the same for crypto market! at some point whales will stop the song and the butchery begins so while you enjoying Moons day you must get ready for Dooms day 2024 was a pivotal year for crypto, setting the stage for what many are calling the "Golden Age of Crypto." While this new era may be upon us, we anticipate that crypto prices will likely peak within the next 12 months, following an exciting rally. However, after reaching this peak, another significant price decline seems inevitable though likely less severe than previous cycles, especially for major cryptocurrencies. If you're unfamiliar with crypto's history, it tends to move in 4year cycles: 3 years of bullish momentum followed by 1 year of a bearish downturn. This pattern has been remarkably consistent so far. The chart you see illustrates this trend, with green lines marking Bitcoin's cycle peaks and red lines indicating the lows. Interestingly, the duration between peaks and troughs has been almost identical across the last three cycles. The time between consecutive peaks is also fairly consistent, though we only have two complete cycles of data to analyze. Based on historical averages, we could expect a peak around October 2025 and a bottom around November 2026. Will it play out exactly like this? Probably not! maybe YES!! markets rarely align so neatly. Plus, these cycles won't last forever; this could very well be the final one. Still, I believe the crypto market will likely top out sometime in 2025 or early 2026, regardless of the bullish catalysts (Trump, crypto ETFs, strategic Bitcoin reserves) In this idea, we gonna talk about : - Potential scenarios for how this cycle might unfold in 2025 - Expected pullbacks during the year - Sell strategy for this cycle The key takeaway is to stay flexible and not fixate on any specific prediction. Understand the possibilities and prepare for unexpected pullbacks or market tops. Knowledge is power, and this idea aims to empower you in what could be one of the most critical years ever for crypto investors. Short Term Expectations & Probabilities Q1 2025: “Death & Taxes” there is a chance for market pullback in early January This outlook is partly based on global liquidity trends and partly on historical performance. For instance, in the 2016-17 bull market, following Trump’s November 2016 victory, Bitcoin saw a December rally before experiencing a steep 38% correction starting January 4th. Let’s Revisit the Last Cycle: Bitcoin Price Action in 2020-21 look at how Bitcoin performed during the 2020-21 bull market. In this cycle, Biden won the election, and crypto markets surged through November and December. However, a significant pullback of 32% began on January 7th—eerily similar to the pattern from the previous cycle. The Role of Seasonality in Markets Markets, at their core, are driven by human behavior. Even with bots and AI handling many trades, these systems operate under human instruction and decision-making. Seasonality often influences market trends, particularly at the start of the year, when pullbacks are common. One key reason? Profit taking for tax efficiency. January Pullbacks In both the 2016 and 2020 cycles, crypto investors had a great year, making January an ideal time to lock in profits. Why not sell in December instead? Selling on December 31st means paying taxes on capital gains by March of the following year in the US By waiting until January 1st, investors effectively defer their tax payments to the next year, giving them an additional 12 months to reinvest their gains before taxes are due. In the crypto space dominated by individual investors with significant gains this tax strategy often amplifies January pullbacks. March Pullbacks Historical data also shows noticeable pullbacks in March: - March 8, 2017 - March 14, 2021 Why? This is when many investors sell to pay their tax bills in the U.S. Some may have sold earlier (e.g., in January) and are now liquidating assets to pay their "loan" from the government. Others may simply need to cash out to meet tax obligations. Even if not all investors are selling for taxes, the narrative surrounding tax-driven March pullbacks tends to perpetuate itself, effectively "meming" these declines into reality. While pullbacks can occur at any time, history suggests that January and March are more likely to see declines for these reasons. May Pullbacks: “Sell in May and Go Away” Looking at broader market trends, it’s worth noting that U.S. stock indexes have historically performed better between November and April compared to May through October. This pattern has held true since the 1970s and often applies to crypto as well. Bitcoin’s Seasonal Struggles: Summer Slump When examining Bitcoin’s average monthly performance since 2010, its four worst-performing months are consistently June, July, August, and September. For a clearer picture, take a look at Bitcoin’s price chart from 2020 to today. Ouch! This aligns with the old investment adage: Sell in May and go away. Judging by Bitcoin’s historical performance, it’s hard to argue with the results. Why Does This Happen? The theory behind this trend may sound a bit absurd, but it’s worth exploring. After May, summer rolls around, and the ultra-wealthy—the bankers, fund managers, and other key players managing the world’s capital tend to take vacations. In the U.S., they head to the Hamptons. In the U.K., it’s Spain, Italy, or Greece. With these power players lounging on their beachfront properties, away from their desks and screens, market activity slows down. Fewer trades mean reduced liquidity, effectively putting the markets on pause. It’s as if the financial elite collectively agree to press “pause” in May and resume the game in October. Even in Bullish Markets! This seasonal trend can impact markets even during strong bull runs. For example, in 2017, Bitcoin soared from under $1,000 in January to $20,000 by December. However, a pullback started on May 25th. Although prices rallied briefly in August, by mid-September Bitcoin had returned to its May peak price. It wasn’t until October that things went parabolic, leading to an explosive 10x move by year’s end. This historical pattern emphasizes the importance of staying cautious during the summer months. While markets may see some rallies, the overall trend has been consistently weak during this period. The 2021 Cycle: Front Running the Summer Slump A similar pattern played out in 2021, though it appeared that some investors tried to front-run the summer dip. Bitcoin’s price began declining on April 17, earlier than usual. After a brief rally, mid-May saw a dramatic 50% drop. While prices recovered somewhat over the summer, the real momentum didn’t kick in until October. Again, this doesn’t guarantee how the first half of 2025 will unfold, but it’s worth considering these historical trends as possibilities. H2 2025: “History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Often Rhymes When looking at the second half of the year, historical patterns don’t offer as much detail except for one key insight: Q4 tends to be a standout quarter for crypto during the “number go up” years of the cycle. The phrase “sell in May and go away” could easily extend to “until October” for crypto investors, as this strategy has historically performed well. In past cycles, the final quarter of the 4-year cycle (which 2025 would be if the pattern holds) has often marked the peak. This is typically followed by a sharp downturn: - 2013: Top in November - 2017: Top in December - 2021: Top in November If history is any guide, 2025 could follow a similar trajectory, with Q4 delivering explosive price action potentially leading to a cycle top and a subsequent correction. Expert Predictions for Bitcoin in 2025 The founder of Pantera, whose Bitcoin fund boasts a staggering 130,000% return, forecasts that August 2025 will mark the peak of this cycle. He aligns with the broader sentiment that 2025 will be a bull market, followed by a downturn in 2026. He also believes it’s entirely plausible for Bitcoin’s price to increase tenfold over the next 5–10 years Meanwhile, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, predicts Bitcoin’s price will range between $80,000 and $150,000 in 2025. He notes that the lower end of the range may reflect market corrections if Trump fails to deliver on pro crypto policies, while the upper target could be supported by a favorable U.S. regulatory environment Looking beyond 2025, Butterfill envisions Bitcoin’s market value rising from its current 10% of the gold market to 25%, potentially driving the price to $250,000. However, he cautions that reaching this milestone within 2025 may prove super challenging. If you dig up my old BTC charts, you’ll see I was screaming bullish while everyone else was crying in the corner at $ 16k. But now? BTC doesn’t even phase me anymore. 2025 is Altcoin time! It’s gem szn, and I’m here for the treasure hunt
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by moonypto
4
BTC SHORT for Very Short until TRUMP's FIRST DAY!Bitcoin USD prediction: We had a fake-out to 89k, a mini one, but it could be enough for continuation. I'm letting it print some more price action before making new moves. Either way, I'm still convinced this consolidation at 98k with a possibility of retrace around 96K to produce highlows can attract more bullish people while we continue to reset FGM (fear greed meter) including RSI as leading indicator recently for protail and retail traders and investors. This is my final and last prediction! I will make sure this will stay permanent and I will be brave in making these predictions. To support these predictions let's look from a zoom out cycle view, it’s still fine a -17% to -20% dips are expected in a bull market. This is basic and the worst was more than -35% to -40% crashes at the middle of every BTC.d down and BTC price up. The bullish market structure is also intact. It still looks like the first consolidation after the first impulsive leg after breaking above the range high, which is the usual way the markets move. I said this during live that this is going to be the smartest thing you will do in order to really enter the alts you want to bag or DCA since most of you guys worry about being fearful rather than taking action. Please watch my videos here;
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by osodatsismoso
Bitcoin Breaks Key ResistanceBitcoin achieved a pivotal daily close above the key $99,860 resistance level, marking a significant bullish development. This close not only solidifies the reclaim of this critical level but also signals the potential for further upside momentum in the near term. The break above $99,860 had been a crucial hurdle for bulls, and this close now shifts the focus toward the next major resistance at $106,099. That said, we are trading below it today and need to hold. Today’s close is meaningful. Adding to the bullish case, Bitcoin remains well above the 50-day moving average, currently around $97,600, which has now established itself as solid support. The daily candle demonstrated clear strength, indicating that buyers are stepping in with confidence. This level will be a critical area for bulls to defend moving forward to sustain the breakout. With Bitcoin back above $99,860, the immediate outlook leans bullish, with the potential for a move toward $106,099 if momentum continues. However, it’s important to monitor volume closely, as stronger participation would further validate this breakout. Any pullbacks should find support at the 50-day moving average, providing an area of interest for buyers. For now, the daily close above resistance is a key win for the bulls, setting the stage for potentially more upward momentum in the days ahead.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
I've got some wisdom to share. Take some notes #BitcoinHey members, apologies for being offline for a while...I'm back (kinda) Tradingview is happy to ban me from speaking to you and for these reasons I might not be making videos on here for much longer Today I want to share with you some truths that others dont speak about. It's beyond trading mentality, which is why it works Please learn from my pain (or don't, but do) "Energy" runs the you and it runs the markets, focus on respecting market energy and your managing your emotions within it Know the game you're in Humans have emotions, and if can't manage them those then you're not playing the game right The market has energy, if you can't identify the energy of the market then you're not playing the game right Hopefully I'll be catching up with you soon Ciao for now. Blayno
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Blayno_MTOPS
Bitcoin bull flagIf there is no follow through with the head and shoulders pattern, keep an eye out for this bull flag. The snap back in recent price action displays strength and a seek for liquidity. The 2 green boxes are previous bearish fair value gaps. The consequent encroachment for both gaps are marked (green line through center). Watch for the bearish FVGs to get flipped as support (inversion). Watch the 0.5 (red line, consequent encroachment of the consolidation range) to get flipped as support. The final sign that BTC is potentially ready for a markup phase is for the top bearish FVG to get displaced through and flipped as support (inversion). I have projected a bars pattern of the previous run (bull pole starting in Sept. 2024) to help visualize volatility and a realistic timeframe if it were to play out similarly. "History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes" - Mark Twain 2025 Q1-Q2 Top (projection lined up with April) Sell in May and go away...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MaxDDM
BTCUSD - ACCUMULATION CURVEHere is another developed curve (basing) that could be taking place on btc. We see a strong consolidation form (month long) prior to marked low and the 89,028.64 low could be the start of our backside of the curve. Look for rejection near 102,735 high as we develop from theere 89,028 needs to hold for a parabolic move. We are traders place ticker in a template and allow for the price to develop and confirm. While we wait we move on the next template/setup. Don't anticipate, participate!! Trade price action not price movement... There's a difference!!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Dreamforevertay
"Hidden Wave Divergence Tracker" Compare the green circles with the chart’s price action. I’m using **CCI compressed on a 3-day timeframe** and further compressing that into a **7-day timeframe**. This correlation is signaling a new bullish wave on the horizon. So yes, manipulators will need to work extremely hard to shake out retail traders and prevent them from capitalizing on this move. Here’s what makes this setup significant: I’m using my **correlation method in combination with my custom CCI setup**, which is far more reliable and responsive than standard **RSI readings**. While my RSI already detected a **hidden bullish divergence on the 3-day timeframe**, my CCI configuration goes a step further—it provides a much clearer picture of what’s ahead, especially when viewed through the lens of a **7-day timeframe linked with the 3-day timeframe**. This setup allows us to identify early signals and hidden trends that aren’t immediately visible through traditional indicators. The result? A **clear hidden bullish divergence** emerges, confirming that despite the wave of negative news, much of it is pure manipulation. Don’t be fooled by the noise—this setup shows that the real market sentiment is gearing up for something significant.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
24
BTCUSDt,market target 104000entry point 101300 stop loss 100500You're sharing a trading idea for Bitcoin (BTC) in USD! To confirm, your strategy is: 1. *Target:* $104,000 2. *Entry Point:* $101,300 3. *Stop Loss:* $100,500 Please keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets can be highly volatile. It's essential to set appropriate risk management strategies and consider multiple sources before making trading decisions. Are you looking for real-time market data or analysis to support your trading plan?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Stevenexpert
BTC (Bitcoin) - Moving to 128k or 143k?Throughout most of 2024, we saw a series of lower highs and lower lows , signaling a downtrend that began after the market peaked in March 2024. This pattern reflected a period of declining confidence and cautious trading. Now, as we enter late 2024 through today, a similar pattern has emerged! To build confidence in further upside, we need to see a break in structure —essentially, a shift where the market establishes higher highs and higher lows . This would signal a potential trend reversal and indicate that buyers are beginning to take control. It’s important to note, though, that even with a break in structure, this is not a guarantee of sustained upside but rather a signal that conditions are improving. The Wave 4 Context and Fibonacci Levels From an Elliott Wave perspective, I believe we are currently in Wave 4 of an impulsive move. So far, the market has found support near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a level often associated with shallow pullbacks in bullish trends. This support suggests underlying bullish tendencies remain intact. However, a pullback to the 38.2% retracement level would be a more ideal setup for establishing a stronger base. If this deeper retracement materializes, it could provide a healthier springboard for the next move higher. Key Price Levels to Watch If we have indeed bottomed, the next potential move could target $143,000, representing an ambitious upside projection. However, a more conservative and likely target lies at $128,000, which corresponds to the -23.6% Fibonacci extension level. This level would align with a measured and steady continuation of the bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bitdoctor
1
BTC BULLHello again ! ...so soon... Yes the last bear has almost played out but you would have only known about this if you followed the notes on the last #BTC ideas I've posted out last year and this. Just like here for example... and here ... But time for some #BTC BULL trades... While yes I have a bigger bear & this is still not TP3 on the most recent bear. BUT I want to demonstrate my structure to those who are waiting but it never happens... If you don't read the notes... then this is when the trade started for the set-up on the last bear picture but posted late if you click the links you will see... (If you know how this platform works you cannot hide this stuff)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by elitetechfx-daily
8