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TKUK1! trade ideas

Big picture Corn Market structureCurrent Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. Sensitive…. Resistance at the 5.75 area and then 6.50 - 7.35. **5.75 is an area that some pricing and protection should be encouraged Support is the 5.15 to 4.75 area. **Most 22’ break evens are coming in at this range. Eventually price will return to this area. Risk is 4.00-3.80 range with further extreme risk at 3.00. We traded a 6 year range from 3.00 to 4.50, someday there could still be a pull back to that area **This is a continuous front month chart, new crop (currently Dec 22’) targets should be considered when front month futures hit target areas…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
CORNNNNNNNNNNNNStagflation Oil Harvest USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board anticipates 2021/22 corn, soybean, and wheat harvested area to total nearly 1.4 billion acres. In the past two years, an additional 57 million acres of corn, soybeans, and wheat across the world have come into production – a 4.4% increase since 2019. And those acres need supplemental nutrients to produce profitable yields. Current price levels are encouraging for fertilizer production expansion. But rising natural gas costs as energy supplies run dry mean that the global fertilizer production increase could be thwarted by looming energy shortages in Russia, China and the European Union. NOAA is currently forecasting a warmer than normal winter across much of the Heartland. Temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains are likely to be cooler than usual. If an unexpected polar vortex hits late in the winter and energy reserves in the Gulf are not adequate, domestic fertilizer production could face more delays. It will likely be another tight year of global fertilizer supplies as more world players such as India, Brazil, China and Russia compete with the U.S. for available fertilizer supplies. While spring 2022 shortage fears are still largely speculative, farmers are wise to plan for worst-case scenarios regarding 2022 fertilizer applications. It marks a warranted shift in managerial focus from price risk to operational risk. As we have prominently seen over the past three growing cycles, crop quality and yield – thus revenues – are negatively impacted when farmers halt operations for any reason. And with a rapid rise in weather volatility, waiting on pesticide and fertilizer supplies next spring increases the risk for lower yields next fall.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn29753125
BEARISH ON US CORNBearish clues: - General downtrend since August 2021 - Ascending wedge , breakdown with a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern - Bearish Divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) + below the neutrality zone (RSI < 50) - Pullback done on a resistance zone around $5.40/bushel - Breakdown of the 150 Exponential Moving Average Fundamental news: - US Corn production seems to be good , as well as the European and France productions - WASDE USDA Report is expected on October 12, 2021 Objective: The theoretical objective of the ascending wedge is around $5.00/bushel . US Corn could goes down to the level of $5.23/bushel first (resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement level) and then down to the $5.12/bushel . Then, the last objective is $5.00/bushel (ascending triangle's theoretical objective and psychological price level) MAYBE WAIT THE WASDE USDA REPORT RELEASE TOMORROW (OCTOBER 12, 2021) Feel free to share, comment and give your opinion if it is constructive ;) DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice
CBOT:ZCZ2021Short
by ViclreTrade
Continuous CornA few things for direction on Corn after report. Some bias for more upside longer term, but the market has been saying not so fast lately. US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs (more so for beans than corn as China usually does not buy much corn) Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net is tipping lower. Natural selling by farmer. (+) Commercial Shorts could be reversing to add to positions, typically places a low. (+) Commercial Longs have not been adding. Until they start adding I will remain neutral. (+/-) Funds are adding to longs. (+) **These indicators lag behind change in trends. But if we do trend after the report, It should help confirm a bigger picture scenario either way….
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
Continuous CornCorn – Weekly Cont: The 5.47 area had the most volume by price since the uptrend began. Did the recent bump give the Funds an opportunity to bail on their longs or does it prove to be an area of accumulation for funds and end users??? Weekly support at 5.21 needs to hold for the weak longs. Further key support at 4.98. Risk is 4.66-4.37. So far the cloud is acting as good support. Any further strength needs to see a weekly close above the 5.44-5.47 resistance. Initial target above 5.47 is at 5.88 and then 6.16. Current “Market Structure” is very sensitive. Downside Risk is 4.37, Upside Risk is any posted number up to 8.81
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
December 21 CornDecember 21 Corn - Weekly: A very wide range of price action that has so far respected the downtrend line since the early May high. There is an abundance of volume by price in the 5.40-5.60 range. The weekly chart shows the red Kijun line (5.44) and blue Tenkan line pinching together. Weekly closes below 5.44 is a concern for the bulls. A Weekly close above 5.17 will be supportive (lowest weekly close posted wk of 7/6). Support targets below in red. Targets above in blue.
CBOT:ZCZ2021
by mtb1980
Continuous Corn MixedCorn – Weekly Cont: **Technicals showing mixed signals** Will Friday’s bump hold? Dec21 leading the continuous chart. The lagging indicator turned negative but can turn neutral/positive with a confirmed bounce. The blue Tenkan cross below the red Kijun is bearish. Need a weekly close above the blue TenKan line. The slight uptrend channel was broken, could be labeled as a bear flag and could still target price action lower to 4.66-4.37 area The green cloud offers up trending support, let’s see if Friday’s 4.97 holds. There is a big gap in volume by price between 4.25 to 5.20 area….Lots of volume at 5.47 will continue to act as a magnet. Above will target 5.89 as a key hurdle to get over…
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980