TKUK1! trade ideas
CBOT CornGood Morning
From a mild Johannesburg and ahead of tonights WASDE (out at 7 pm local time) I would like to share what I feel to be a very RR (risk/reward) trade.
Of all the softs heading into tonight's numbers, I feel that Corn has the highest probability of rallying.
I believe that we can see a rally toward the $4.24 level in the coming days and post tonights numbers.
The targets also fit perfectly in with the 61.8% retracement.
At current levels, this trade presents us with a 31/10 bet based on a stop under $3.71.
This could just be the way to end off the 1st week of 2020….. with some decent $$$$ in your pocket!
Happy hunting and always remember the following: “hard work and discipline will always trump talent when talent does not work hard” ~ anonymous
Giancarlo
The sweet taste of cornCorn futures broke above resistance, and I am looking for a pullback to demand around the area it will become support.
Ushering the New Year with Corn futuresOne of the main agricultural product that China will be ramping up to purchase from US is corn. The pent up demand will push up the prices higher.
OPENING: /ZC JAN 24TH 375/380 LONG CALL VERTICALSome small long delta in corn in advance of the WASDE report tomorrow ... .
Metrics:
Max Profit: 143.75
Max Loss: 106.25
Break Even: 377.13
Notes: Max is realized on a finish above the short call, but will look to take profit at 50% max.
CORN Long - Range playNothing really exciting happening here, but a possible small range play looks possible. Price has been bouncing around a ascending channel, currently around the bottom of it. If it price holds and a confirmation of bounce, look to hold a position towards the upper end of channel 380ish area.
Corn: Short opportunity on 1D Death Cross and RSI.Corn has been consolidating recently following the 402 peak on 1D (RSI = 54.610, STOCH = 53.472, MACD = 0.760, ADX = 18.642) after the September Death Cross. A similar candle sequence took place in August 2018, when after a 1D Death Cross (MA50 under MA200) and a market Top, the price made a new Low (Higher Low on 1W).
Since the RSI is on the same zone as then, we are expecting a decline towards 368'2 - 360'2.
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CORN Channel Break and RetestCorn futures has broken out of a downward channel and retested it. This current price aligns with the 61.8 fib level and is a decent support level. Long trade would target the recent swing high as a first target and the 161.8 fib extension as a second target.
CORN LONG Corn broke supply zone and its a good idea to get a long at the pullback!
non-commercials are cutting shorts and commercials are adding shorts.
Also, non-commercials are cutting shorts for bloomberg commodity index, and corn is in there.
It's up from here
Corn Futures ZC supply and demand forecast analysisSupply and Demand and any trading strategy can be quite overwhelming at times. When looking at the Corn Futures ZC weekly timeframe we can see there is a super strong weekly demand imbalance created around 3600. The strength of that demand imbalance is quite strong, we already have price reacting to it, we are expecting Corn Futures ZC to rally higher, there is a lot of room for Corn Futures to keep on moving to the upside.
You can use Corn Futures options or various ETFs to trade Corn Futures as well, you are not exclusively limited to the Corn Futures ticker. We don’t need any specific tools to learn how to trade Futures or Corn. You can pay attention to Corn fundamental analysis or even Corn Seasonal analysis, but all that will be a lot of hard work just to learn that fundamentals where good to sell Corn Futures but you did not know there was a pretty strong weekly demand imbalance in control and you should have gone long on Corn Futures ZC instead of shorts.
We can day trade and do intraday on Corn Futures as well. Supply and demand can be applied to any market and asset. Futures intraday and day trading is also possible by using simple rules that will help you locate brand new imbalances to trade. You can use other trading strategies to day trade futures and Corn futures. By knowing there is a very strong weekly demand imbalance in control, you can use other trading strategies to plan your intraday trades.
Corn Sep 24 SHORTM pattern
Looking at our daily continuous corn contract we will first use our indicators such as RSI, Stoch RSI, and
MACD to determine possible directional position.
Or RSI is heading down the slightest but has been at this high level three major times with no success to
break through and has gone flat. Our Stoch RSI shows slight less buying pressure with the buy RSI above the sell
RSI, therefore still showing slight, not strong but still bullish presence.
Our MACD shows overbought conditions with our buy and sell looking to cross for selling pressure.
(Only 1 real bearish signs with a reasonable half bullish indicator.)
A 10R chart will show a more favorable move to the downside which will break it through the latest low.
an upside move using this technique is unlikely due to previous candle strength after Sep 17 drop.
We are in lower lows and lower highs pattern and are testing the third resistance touch with little strength
to break out.
Long corn ideaFarmers often will not sell into low fall prices, and with the corn crop being is poor condition this year I think we may see about 5$ corn by the end of the year due to poor overall crop conditions and farmer hoarding. Doubly so if we get a cold snap is the near future.
THE WEEK AHEAD: GDXJ, /ZC, /ZSEARNINGS:
No earnings announcements this coming week in underlyings with highly liquid options with ideal rank/implied metrics (>70% rank/>50% 30-day implied).
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (82/29)
GDX (74/33)
TLT (71/15)
GDXJ (60/37)
GLD (59/15)
XOP (35/37)
Precious metals ... again, with GDXJ offering the best volatility metrics (>50% rank/>35% 30-day implied)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (23/19)
SPY (13/13)
QQQ (11/18)
EEM (7/16)
EFA (15/11)
FUTURES:
/SI (82/28)
/UB (71/5)
/ZB (71/12)
/ZN (61/6)
/ZS (63/28)
/GC (59/15)
/ZC (52/28)
Pictured here is a corn short strangle in the October/40 days 'til expiry cycle with strikes camped out around the 1 standard deviation on the put side at 14 delta and the call side at the 13 delta strike, resulting in a delta neutral setup supposedly paying 4.00 at the mid price with break evens at 336 and 409. Naturally, that'll have to be priced out during regular market hours. There also may be some benefit in going out to November, where the implied volatility is at 25.3% versus October's 24.1% and where implied volatility contracts from there into winter and spring with February at 20.5% and April at 17.5%.
An alternative trade would be in October beans; the 830/990 short strangle paying 4.75 with the short put erected at the one standard deviation strike on the put side, the call at the equally delta'd strike on the call. For contrast: corn's implied volatility term structure: October -- 23.3%, November 17.8%, December 19.2%, February 16.6%, April 15.8%.
Naturally, either of these setups can be transformed into defined risk, iron condor trades by buying wings.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
Yowsa! VIX finished the week at sub-14 (13.74), so it's basically time to hand sit on what you put on in August volatility and wait for the next >20 pop to short.
$CORN - Also trading near TL supportCorn has had a big pullback and is now close to testing TL support.
ZCK2020-ZCU2019 - Commodity Spread Trading on Corn FuturesZCK2020-ZCU2019
Spreads on corn futures almost reaching Take Profit.
Spreads are one of the most profitable forms of trading there are thanks to the statistical advantage on the seasonality of commodities.
If done respecting the rules of operation, you get on average a Winrate of 87% with a Risk Reward of 2/1.
Joe Ross is my greatest master in this field.
