TKUK1! trade ideas
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price action did confirm that the bottom is in the market and price moved up some 3% during the week. We call it a bull bias from here but would like to see an impulsive move up during the coming week to secure the move up more solidly. A draw back could still occur but is not in our favourite scenario.
Corn - Bottom seen at 312.00On August 4 - 2016 I said, that we either had seen a bottom at 319.40 or needed one more decline closer to 310.00.
With a low seen at 312.00 followed by a rally above minor resistance at 328.60 the low is in place for a long term rally to 440.40 and above here confirms the rally to 519.00.
CBoT corn is a long playUpdate for CORN Z16:
During last weekend we were not certain yet on the bottom in the market for this price and we would have liked to see one more swing to the downside. In meantime, however, we identify the candle of last Friday as a 'hammer' that has been confirmed by yesterday's firmer candle. We are looking to the upside from here and call a tradable bottom in the market. There could still come a pull-back of price but as long as price keeps trading above the 320/317 level we keep our view to the upside. If and when price breaks that level we will have to go back to our drawing board and abandon our bull bias.
CBoT corn still no green light for a long playCorn:
Price basically has been moving sideways during the past 9 sessions although it made a fierce spike to the downside during yesterday's sessions after which price recovered back to its level of apparent comfort of the past 2 weeks. We are anticipating a solid bottom for price and have done so for some weeks now but we currently still feel uncertain to call for same bottom. We want to have one more week of 'wait-and-see' attitude on this one after which we will try to establish a renewed judgement. It could be that we will have to conclude and call for a bottom during the coming trading week in which case we will come with an update.
Positive divergences again. Will it work for a bottom this time?Weekly:
- Ichimoku has a bearish bias, but despite the recent selloff, the averages (Kijun and Kumo) are still dlat, as the rally in May-June had same weight! This means mkt got oversold as Price is very far below equilibrium.
Maybe it sounds funny, but this market still has to be considered as a RANGE. The range is very wide, with 320 possible bottom, 375-380 equilibrium mid, and 425 top.
- Heikin-Ashi is still bearish, but haDelta has been picking up from extreme low. Price made new lows towards 320 resistance, so this means some positive divergence. haDelta need to climb over zero to fade heavy bearish price action.
- EWO is bearish. MACD is bearish biased, but signal line is still above zero, and histogram seems to start bottom out. (very early and weak positive signal)
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish
- Price pattern makes a possible bullish wedge
- Heikin-Ashi gives early bullish signal: haDelta is testing zero, it has built remarkable positive divergence. Candle may turn bullish today, but first real key reversal level is 329!
- EWO is bearish, but has been slowly building some bullish divergence too.
Strategy: Get ready to open 0,5 unit swing long. Initial tgt can be 350 +/-.
Note: I will show 4H Ichimoku later on Twitter from my firm trading system. 4H Kijun now is 326,25 and forward Kumo top (Senkou B) is 329.
CBoT corn long play around the cornerCorn:
Price is following our preferred path rather well and the decline is now very major. The reversal is imminent. It could be that the bottom has been on the chart last week at 329 but a bit of overshoot to the 320 level is possible as well. We stay tuned for a long play entry which will probably be offered to us during the coming week or week ahead and with a 30% rally towards the end of the year.
Corn - Bottom in place or expected very soonCorn is tracing out a major complex correction in wave B. This correction began way back in late September 2014 and has unfolded as a zig-zag from the 2014 low at 318 to 443 as wave W and has been followed a zig-zag decline in wave X from 443 to a low currently seen at 319. The X-wave could be complete and if this is the case, then a break above short term important resistance at 335 soon will be seen for a long term rally back to at least 443 and likely even higher towards 519.
As long as short term important resistance at 335 is able to protect the upside, we must allow for a final decline closer to 310, but it's only a question of time before the low is in place and a new rally begins
Corn - Bottoming for a rally towards at least 440Corn has either bottomed at 319.4 or needs one more decline closer to 310.00 before a long term bottom is seen for a rally towards at least 440.00 and possibly even higher towards 519.00.
The first strong indication of the bottom being in place will be a break above the resistance-line seen near 329.00 while a break above 335.00 confirms the bottom for the rally to at least 440.00.
CORN at major pivot/support pointcorn at daily double bottom, long off this support level or short on a breakdown
Building Good Case to go Long CornRecent run up in corn prices have resulted in a quick sell off to return to equilibrium prices. Price is on its 3 push down. Trading volume remains extremely below average and the fractal acceleration has turned positive and consequently, the fractal momentum is slowing and turning positive. We are looking for a positive increase in price followed by a jump in trading volume to go long.
One could buy a long future or buy a call option or sell a put option or any combination thereof.
Futures trading involves risk and is not suited for every investor.
CBoT Corn long play entry needs more timeCorn:
We were wrong with our first buy-stop at 375 of 2 weeks ago and also our buy signal at 340 of one week ago turned out to be too premature. We have removed them from our chart in meantime. Nonetheless, our long term view on this price remains 30-35% to the upside into the next calendar year but it is just the timing for entry of the long play that has to be postponed a bit. Fact that we have been stopped out twice in a row doe snot change our bias.
Time being we expect price to make one more modest move to the downside and bottom out in one week or 10 days at around the 320 level from where we anticipate price to finally make its reversal and start trading up. For now we wait.
CBoT corn long playCorn:
Price indeed traded further down which has caused a massive drawdown on longs that were take at the buy-stop level. Price drew a very long bottom tail on the chart for Friday's candle with a (less than perfect) 'hammer' as result.
Longs that have been stopped out now have a renewed opportunity to try one more long play but need to put stops tight as we want to see the reversal to happen during the first 2 or 3 sessions of the week.
Positive divergences - can it make a local bottom?Here are the daily and 4H charts of Corn which I meantioned yesterday on Twitter but I could not post.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish, but Price is too far below equilibrium. It needs to consolidate, pull back a bit at some point.
- Heikin-Ashi candles shrink, last candle is a doji. haDetlta is still below zero: consolidation, indecision
- minor positive divergence in EWO
4H:
- Ichimoku is losing some of its bearish bias. Price is testing Kijun and bearish trendline.
- haDelta/SMA3 shows positive divergence
- EWO shows positive divergence
- Short term upper key levels: 338-340 and 345
In case Price can't make a lower low today or tomorrow, then we may see some quicker pull back to 350-360 zone.
Be wise how much risk you allocate to this trade! You have to keep a tight stop below 330, and you should not trade more than 0,5-1 trade unit size. Risk management is always the key, especially in case of counter trend swing trades!
Long Corn @ 337 stopI think it is worth trying to go long targeting at least 360. There is strong divergence and pin bar probably finishing the fifth wave + quite oversold. Seasonally the bullishness might be in place for next 3-4 weeks. TP 360, SL 325.
Possible Reversal in CornWe have an indecision candle here as indicated on the chart. Fractal acceleration is turning positive and the fractal momentum is slowing down as expected. Price should follow.
Futures trading involves significant financial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor.
Elliott Wave Analysis: CORN In A Temporary ConsolidationOn the 4H chart of CORN we are observing a possible three wave set-back taking place, that could ideally reach 390-400 region before turning again lower in black wave (2). That been said, on the alternate scenario black wave (2) could be already completed and more downside could be here early.
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CBoT corn is a long playCorn:
Price has traded up to our buy stop level after which it made a corrective move back down again. Price should not trade below the latest low of 346 as it will then likely trade further down to the 325 region which would be some 13% below the 375 buying stop zone which would be by far too much of a loss on the price. For now we consider this market to be a buy but we want to see price trade up to the 385 level next week. The upward potential on this chart is 25-30% from here.
