TKUK1! trade ideas
Corn long playCorn:
Price made a 13% swing up during April and corrected down rather impulsively during the 2 sessions of Apr 21 & 22 in order to correct its overbought status. On very short term the key level is 382.50 which is the low of last Thursday Apr 28. If this level breaks during the first half of the week we anticipate a bit further decline of price that could go as far as the 370/365 mark which would be an excellent target level to anticipate a long play.
From there we expect price to reverse in order to rally further up throughout the summer to 450 levels or higher than that. We feel more comfortable with our 450 target for the mid-term than with the possible swing down next week to 370.
Looked like a panic? I think it was/is a retest buy opportunitySharp moves, soaring volatility: look at ATR! --> first conclusion: as always when volatility increases that much, you must reduce unit size (regardess how small or big account you trade)!!!
After the spike we saw two days massive selloff down to 371+. Please note that now we already trade July Corn contract.
- 377 - 372 zone was clearly a bullish support to buy.
- Market is so volatile, price is moveing so quickly, that even with haDelta it is a bit hard to catch changes in time. The Heikin-Ashi candle still looks bearish, but as you see haDelta quickly hit an extreme low during friday trading session. That's why I thought the support zone was OK to buy a small long. Anyway I waited until today US open to enter.
- EWO is not changing that quickly. It is simply still bullish.
As you see the weekly key reversal is still around 395-400. In case we close above, we can expect another +10 % move to ard 440.
Corn I belibe that The major bottom of Corn may be placed in
But will it be profitable? I don't think so in terms of time,
any way Would look for 50~61.8% to buy
Short corn The March 31 report could be ugly with lots of corn to be planted. No good news for corn unless we see a weather scare.
Corn: Not A Trade Idea Just A ReactionI was looking for some upside action in corn as it appeared all the grain complex have turned the corner. Then this! This business is no an easy one by any means
While positionning is record short, price action is...... rather bullish.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku is more neutral. Price stil below Kijun and Kumo (bearish), but all averages has been flat line for long time now.
- Triangle
- Heikin-Ashi is bullish biased now, but haDelta is still sround zero line. Needs more momentum.
- EWO ticking back to zero -> neutral
- Strategic key reversal level is: 395
Daily:
- Bullish Kumo breakout gets validation as Tenkan and Chikou moving above Kumo too!
- Heikin-Ashi bullish continuation: candle and haDelta gives a buy signal after 2 days of consolidation-
- EWO is bullish
- ATR is still extremely low! If record short positions get squeezed, price action can turn really agressive, with volatility to jump.
Hold/increase longs. Stop below 360. Trail stops with PSAR and/or Kijun Sen. Initial target 390-395.
Watch CORN...Grains market is interesting right now. DBA, agriculture etf, broke out of daily cloud and I am looking at corn here.
Weekly:
-Bearish Ichimoku
-But you can make a case of double bottom with rsi and ha osc divergence
-Prices trying to get over TS, for move to KS first as it is first hurdle.
Daily:
-Weak TS and KS cross and prices currently at cloud and 100 wma
-HA osc is above 0
-Break of cloud should bring acceleration for move up.
Sugar already broke out. So corn and wheat are getting interesting now.. My bias is bullish here.
May CornMomentum building for a rally. Looking for profits near 100 Day MA. Remember to lock in profits when price gets far enough into the green
Short OpportunityFutures trading is not for everyone. Please be advised that future contracts involve substantial risks.
GIANT TRIANGLE IN CORN ABOUT TO POP - ZC1!It's close to spring and corn is about to break out of a triangle.
I could see how people will be flocking to Corn in March-April-May-June as you can clearly see that Corn hasn't had the excessive volatility that stocks and bonds have had this year so far.
Corn looks like a peaceful lake compared to a tsunami and a typhoon over in the equity and bond markets.
Either way, look for "planting intentions" and lots of forecasts to make corn POP in the next few weeks.
All the best,
Tim
364'2 front month Corn ZC1!
Possible short set up on Corn May contractThere is a possibly short play opportunity developing on the Corn MAY16 contract that, if valid, should materialize some time between March 15 and 18.
Price has been trading within an ascending channel that started March 3 and price is currently at the higher boundaries of same channel.
There is a longer term and rather wide descending price channel that started on October 7 and of which price tested the upper line during Feb 2-4 and during Feb 18-23. Price is now heading to same upper boundary again and should arrive there by Mar 15-16, provided that price continues to follow its current short term ascending channel. The 50DMA is clustering with same upper channel boundary and should add to resistance on price. Doing nothing yet but keeping an eye on it for next week.
Corn - Flat bottom, short potential in case of breakoutCorn is showing a flat bottom triangle pattern. The period of the wave is getting shorter and shorter and the wave is getting enclosed at the end of the triangle. We may see a breakout before March and that would provide a clear signal for selling. For increased confirmation, we may wait for a level that was present just below the triangle and defined by the SSB of Nov 2014. Ichimoku: we see that the cloud provides a strong resistance. Breaking of the Kijun will be the first alert before the breakout, patience is required.
Two scenarios for the short: either use the supports as main targets or rely upon the height of the triangle as guideline. Both could be combined with 50% closing at 344 and the rest at 306. I put the SL at the Kijun for the moment on the chart but as soon as the breakout occurs, it can be tigher. Ichimoku cloud SSB could be used for that purpose.
