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EURUSD1! trade ideas

Leap Ahead with a Dynamic Setup: Trading with Andrew’s PitchforkThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Micro Euro Futures TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition provides an opportunity for traders to apply their futures trading strategies in a competitive environment. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Micro Euro Futures (M6E). This article presents a structured trade setup using Andrew’s Pitchfork, a technical tool that helps define potential trend direction and breakout levels. The setup involves two intersecting pitchforks near a key UFO support level, signaling the possibility of either an uptrend continuation or a confirmation of a new downtrend. Understanding Andrew’s Pitchfork and Market Structure Andrew’s Pitchfork is a technical analysis tool used to identify trend channels by plotting three parallel lines from a major price swing. The tool helps traders anticipate support, resistance, and breakout levels based on median lines. In this setup, two pitchforks define opposing market structures. The green pitchfork represents an uptrend, suggesting that price could continue higher. The red pitchfork represents a developing downtrend, indicating a possible reversal. The intersection of these pitchforks at a key UFO support level marks an important decision point for the market. The Dynamic Trade Setup: Long and Short Scenarios In a long trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks above the Upper Median Line (UML) of the red pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the green pitchfork, representing trend continuation. A stop loss is placed below entry at a distance that ensures a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. In a short trade scenario, entry is confirmed if price breaks below the Lower Median Line (LML) of the green pitchfork. The target for the trade is the Median Line (ML) of the red pitchfork, confirming further downside movement. A stop loss is placed above entry at a distance that maintains a minimum 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Because the UML, LML, and ML levels change dynamically with each bar, breakout levels and targets must be adjusted accordingly. If price remains inside the pitchfork structure, the setup remains neutral until confirmation occurs. Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements Euro FX Futures (6E) details: Full contract specs: 6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €125,000 Tick size: 0.00005 per EUR/USD ($6.25 per tick) Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility, currently around $2,600 per contract. Micro EUR/USD Futures (M6E) details: Full contract specs: M6E Contract Specifications – CME Group Contract size: €12,500 (1/10th of 6E) Tick size: 0.0001 per EUR/USD ($1.25 per tick) Lower margin requirements provide access to traders with smaller accounts, currently around $260 per contract. M6E offers a lower-cost alternative to 6E, making it a useful instrument for adjusting position sizes and managing risk effectively. Traders should consider market conditions and leverage when determining position sizes. Execution and Trade Management Before executing a trade, price must confirm a breakout by fully breaking above UML for long trades or below LML for short trades. Additional confirmation through volume trends, momentum indicators, or candlestick patterns may help validate the move. If price does not confirm the breakout, the setup remains invalid. If price re-enters the pitchfork channel, traders should reassess market structure before taking a new position. Stop losses should be maintained at levels that align with a structured risk-reward plan. Conclusion Andrew’s Pitchfork provides a structured approach for trading trend continuation and reversals. This setup allows for both long and short breakout opportunities, depending on how price reacts at key pitchfork levels. For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of disciplined execution, waiting for confirmation, and managing risk effectively when trading futures. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Education
by traddictiv
4
EUR/USD - Short Term Long trade.M = Green W = Deep Blue D = Neon Blue 4H = Pink. Vice Versa of my DXY analysis, EUR/USD should see bullish price action in repsonse to the DXY dropping. The EURUSD pair HTF's are somewhat mixed, with the M looking like its in the motion of forming a reversal coming off of the M bullish FVG created during the last bullish expansive leg. There are key levels on the weekly and daily, but its the Monthly Bearish FVG currently unmitigated above current price action at 1.07, that is my draw on liquidity for any potential trades. Entries to be taken on the LTFs inside the current daily range, with the 4H Bullish OB being my entry level. Keep it real.
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by TuataraW20
Will We See the Euro Trading Below Par?CME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) #Microfutures Since the US election last November, the Euro currency has lost ground against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate sliding from 1.08 to as low as 1.02. A combination of new policies from the Trump administration aims to strengthen the dollar. Recent efforts to end the geopolitical crisis will not support the euro. On the contrary, they could push the European common currency below the critical 1-dollar level. Quick Review of the EUR/USD Price Trend The euro has swung widely against central bank policies and geopolitical events: • 2020: The Fed implemented massive stimulus measures in response to the pandemic. Lowering interest rates and increasing money supply reduced the value of the USD • 2021: The faster vaccine rollout and quicker reopening of the US economy boosted economic growth and investor sentiment towards the USD • 2022: (1) The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, making the USD more attractive to investors compared to the Euro. (2) Europe faced an energy crisis due to its dependence on Russian gas. This crisis led to economic uncertainty and weakened the euro. (3) Ongoing geopolitical tensions created economic instability in Europe, further weakening the euro against the USD • Q4 2022 and 2023: European Central Bank abandoned its long-held zero-rate policy in September 2022. It raised rates eight times to 4.00%. These actions narrowed the interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, and helped the euro rebound • 2024: The EUR/USD moved mainly sideways in the range of 1.06 and 1.12. Fed easing and rebounds of US inflation contributed to the mild volatility. • Q4 2024 to Current. Dollar ascended quickly after the election win of Donald Trump. Investors expect strong dollar with the support of the new America First policies Ukraine Peace Talks and Possible Outcomes On February 12th, Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to immediately start negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18th, US and Russian officials held peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to create a high-level team to lead the Ukraine peace talks. Neither Ukraine nor the EU participated in the meeting. How the peace talks would progress remain highly uncertain. Using Game Theory, we could break them down into two mutually exclusive and collectively inclusive outcomes: • Peace: US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU sign a peace agreement to end the conflict and ensure long-lasting peace. Whether it will be a fair treaty is a hotly debated topic. • No-Peace: Peace talks break down. The 3-year-long conflict continues. This could last for years but eventually will lead to a win/loss outcome or a draw. From an investing perspective, “No-Peace” is equivalent to “Risk On”. It may imply higher gold prices, higher energy costs and lower equity value. Meanwhile, “Peace” means “Risk Off”. We may see declining gold, lower oil and gas, and rising stock prices. However, it would be difficult to pick the price direction if we can’t predict the outcome. Peace or No Peace – A Steep Cost for Europe For better or worse, the recent events are a wakeup call to European countries. The US had defense spending totaling $967 billion in 2024, which is 3.49% of its GDP. For a comparison, the total defense spending for EU member states reached $358 billion in 2024. This represents around 1.9% of the EU's GDP • The US accounted for 73% of the defense spending in the 32 countries in NATO • Since 2022, the US contributed to 2/3 of all the financial aids sending to Ukraine The US administration intends to cut its financial support. Europe will have to increase defense spending dramatically. In a worst case, a complete breakdown in Cross-Atlantic relations could see the US exiting NATO and all US troops withdrawing from Europe. How much is the spending gap? In 2024, Russia had defense budget of $462 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP. Ukraine had defense budget of $40 billion, or 22% of its GDP. • EU plus Ukraine spent $64 billion less than Russia in defense budget. In my opinion, in a Peace scenario and with reduced US involvement, the EU defense budget must surpass that of Russia to ensure Ukraine to stay on top. I find this to be 2.5% of GDP. This means a 32% increase or $471 billion in total defense spending. For No-Peace, the EU will be fighting an active war. NATO will need to maintain a standing army of 1 million troops and rebuild an entire defense industry. In this scenario, I feel that the defense budget needs to double 5% of GDP. budget to raise a large army and rebuild an entire defense industry. This means a 163% increase or $942 billion in total defense spending. If the above numbers sound outrageous, Israel, a country constantly fighting for its survival, will serve as a good refence point. In 2024, Israel's defense spending amounted to 117.5 billion Israeli shekels (around $32.5 billion USD), which is 6.7% of its GDP. The EU has an estimated GDP growth at 0.9% in 2024 and a forecast growth of 1.5% in 2025. The defense budget increase will cause mandatory cuts in non-defense spending. The combined effect will be negative, pushing GDP growth into a negative territory. In my opinion, re-arming Europe is critical to its survival. However, defense buildup comes at a steep cost. The expectations of lower GDP growth will push the value of Euro currency lower, likely below the 1-dollar critical level. Commitment of Traders shows diminishing bullish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 11th, total Open Interest (OI) for CME Euro FX Futures is 622,873 contracts. “Asset Manager” (i.e., hedge funds) own 338,182 in Long, 177,937 in Short and 35,597 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.9:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 1,014 while increasing short positions by 2,249. • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on the Euro. Trade Setup with Micro Euro/USD Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the CME Micro Euro/USD Futures ($M6E). M6E contracts have a notional value of 12,500 euro. With February 19th settlement price of 1.0435, each March contract (M6EH5) has a notional value of $13,044. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $260. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March M6E contract and the euro drops to $0.99. A short futures position would gain $668.75 (= (1.0435 – 0.99) x $12500). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +257% (= 668.75 / 260). The risk of shorting euro futures is rising euro. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set a stop-loss at 1.06 when entering the short order at 1.0435. If euro rebounds, the maximum loss would be $206.25 ( = (1.06 – 1.0435) *12500). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
Bullish M6E1! Trade IdeaReady to take your trading to the next level? The M6E1 setup is one to watch closely. With potential on the horizon, it's time to tune in and position yourself for what could be a game-changing move. This is the moment to capitalize on a fresh opportunity. Keep your eyes on the prize, trust the process, and execute with precision. Timing is everything—don't let this one pass you by! Let’s see how this trade unfolds. Get in, stay sharp, and always manage your risk. Let’s go! 💡📈
CME_MINI:M6E1!Long
by trader9224
EUR/USD Poised for Reversal from Key Demand Zone – Smart Money A📊 Market Outlook: Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone EUR/USD is approaching a critical daily demand zone (highlighted in yellow), where we anticipate a potential trend reversal. The technical and fundamental data suggest that a buying opportunity is emerging. 🔹 Why Am I Bullish on EUR? ✅ Retail Traders Overloaded on Shorts – The retail crowd is excessively short, which often leads to short squeezes when smart money steps in. ✅ Non-Commercial Traders are Overly Short – CFTC data reveals that large speculative traders hold extreme short positions, signaling a potential contrarian move. ✅ Commercial Traders Accumulating Longs – The smart money (hedgers & institutions) are heavily long on EUR, suggesting value buying at these levels. ✅ Key Demand Zone in Play – Price is approaching a major liquidity pocket, historically acting as strong support and a reversal zone. 🔹 Technical Levels to Watch 📍 Support Zone: Yellow Area On Chart 📈 My Trade Bias: Waiting for confirmation signs in the demand zone. Looking for bullish structure shifts & momentum buyers stepping in. 🚀 What do you think? Will EUR/USD bounce from here or break lower? Comment below! 👇📩 #EURUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #OrderFlow #Liquidity #PriceAction #CFTCData #ForexTrading #FXAnalysis
CME:6E1!Long
by Inevitable_Trader