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XAUTRY1! trade ideas

#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again. Quote from last week: comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. → Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one. short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Title: Gold Futures (GC1!) - Consolidation Under Key ResistanceOn the 1-hour timeframe, Gold Futures are showing signs of consolidation near a significant resistance zone. Here’s the breakdown: Resistance Zone (Upper Blue Area) Price is trading under a clear resistance zone around 2,690–2,700. The rejection here indicates selling pressure at this level. Bearish Trendline (Red Line) A minor bearish trendline suggests weakening momentum, which aligns with the resistance zone acting as a supply area. Support Levels (Lower Blue Areas) Immediate support lies near 2,650, providing potential buying interest if the price pulls back. A stronger support level is visible around 2,620, coinciding with prior price reactions. Potential Scenarios Bearish Case: A breakdown below 2,650 could lead to a further decline toward the next support at 2,620. Bullish Case: A breakout above 2,700 would shift the bias, potentially targeting higher levels like 2,730. Key Levels: Resistance: 2,690–2,700 Support: 2,650 and 2,620 Short Bias: Look for price to sweep above 2,690 and reject the resistance zone. Target 2,650 and 2,620 for potential profits. Long Setup: If price reacts strongly at 2,650, align long trades targeting the resistance zone at 2,690.
COMEX:GC1!
by hakimizai
Gold Futures: Current Analysis (30-11-2024)We are currently developing the impulse (wave C). The 13 MA is below the 55 MA, indicating a slowdown in the movement. In the RSI Difference indicator , the RSI is between the 13 and 55 SMAs and has failed to surpass the 55 SMA, signaling the continuation of the wave C. The final confirmation for this movement will be the 55 EMA turning downward. 🔍 Insights from Weekly Timeframe: Divergences and RSI positioning below both SMAs reinforce the likelihood of a continued downtrend.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Fractanomics
Bitcoin and Gold to Counter InflationConsidering how Gold and Bitcoin surged significantly in response to inflation when it peaked at 9% in June 2022, and given that they are still maintaining their high levels, it seems the fear of inflation is not yet over. Today, I will focus on Gold and strategies to manage this upward trend, which you can also apply to Bitcoin. Mirco Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
How I use Fibonacci extensions Tuesday on this video we take a look at oil and gold... the real purpose is to take a closer look at how I use extensions since you can end up trading with extensions all day long and go crazy. I think that both markets...... gold... and oil.... are contracted markets.. and if I use range boxes to Define where the buyers and sellers are I think there's a little more advantage to the gold market...... but you really want to trade markets that aren't so expanded because they have no range and that means they have less reward.... whether you trade as a buyer or a seller. the good thing is that if you can have a comfortable feeling that the markets contracted it should trigger a Feeling for you to not be so quick to take a trade because a contracted Market is a function of buyers and sellers and that the Market isn't clear since there's no distance between buyers and sellers. if the buyers and sellers are unclear because of what contraction means why would you expect yourself to have a good trade when there's no range?Remember... it is far better to be a chicken because you're not sure where the buyers and sellers are.... versus a dead chicken with chicken parts all over the chart because you were trying to make decisions when the market was ambiguous for both buyers and sellers if it's a contracted Market.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
1
Gold Lost Steam as New US Administration to Take World StageCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) On Monday, gold prices tumbled 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the nomination of Scott Bessent as the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Spot gold fell 3.4% to $2,619.43 per ounce. COMEX gold futures shed 3.4% to $2,620.8. As a safe-haven investment, gold holds strong appeal with the rise of geopolitical crisis. After the US presidential election, investors anticipated that both the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East neared end. The new Treasury pick reduces the risk of escalating trade conflicts, as we have seen in Mr. Trump’s first term. Overall, gold falls on anticipation of lower geopolitical risks in the second Trump presidency. Where would gold prices go from here? I find it useful to analyze the 5-year price trends and identify key factors driving gold prices up and down. From December 2019 to October 2024, golds prices rose 88%. Gold’s recent plunge started in late October, as market anticipated a Trump win. During this five-year period, gold prices have seen significant rises for five times, and major pullbacks for four times. Gold Bull Trends and the Key Drivers: • When the COVID pandemic broke out in January 2020, gold prices rose sharply, and the stock market plummeted. This highlights gold's safe-haven investment function. • In February 2022, gold prices rose in response to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Geopolitical crisis was the key driver. • High inflation in the US, peaked at a 9.1% CPI in July 2022, pushed gold prices to record high. Gold is considered a good hedge for inflation. • In October 2023, the Hamas-Israeli conflict broke out. Gold rallied again as a safe-haven investment. • The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a massive 50 basis points at its September 2024 policy meeting, followed by another 25-bp cut in November. With the expectation of more Fed cuts, gold started a new rally in July 2024. The trade logic: Fed cuts reduce the rate of return on interest-bearing assets such as Treasury bonds and bank deposits, which on turn makes gold investment more appealing. Gold Bear Trends and the Key Drivers: • China resumed manufacturing activities relatively soon after the pandemic. While the U.S. and Europe were still on lockdown and standstill, Chinese goods were exported to fill the gap. This helped lower the perceived risk of an once-a-century health crisis. Gold prices pulled back as a result. • The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a stalemate. It did not spread to other European countries and escalated into World War 3. The geopolitical crisis has subsided, and as a result, gold prices withdrew from advancing. • After the Fed hiked rates 11 times in a row, US inflation has finally cooled down. Gold completed its mission as inflation hedge. Consequently, investors pulled money out of gold and into stocks, causing gold prices to fall. Trade Setup with Micro Gold Futures On November 5th, Mr. Trump won by a landslide and was re-elected as the 47th U.S President. In the following three weeks, he quickly completed the nomination of 15-member Cabinet in his new administration. Based on campaign promises and new Cabinet picks, investors interpret the new Trump policy in a series of the so-called "Trump trades". In my own opinion, these include strong US dollar, weak gold prices and a secular bull market for cryptocurrencies. • The ascension of a political strongman could bring about ceasefires in both the Russia-Ukraine front and the Middle East. As we recall the relatively peace time during the first Trump term, the expected de-escalation of geopolitical crises in his second term could drive gold prices down in the next four years. • The "America First" policy is bullish for US dollar. 1) Bringing manufacturing back onshore would strengthen U.S. economy. 2) High tariffs would reduce trade deficits overtime, although inflation may go up in the short term. 3) Slashing fiscal spending by $2 trillion a year would shore up the government coffer. Combined, these policies would defend the dollar's status as an international reserve currency. The dollar index has risen from 103 to 107 in the past month. A strong dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated gold, as foreign investors would pay more with foreign currencies. • Mr. Trump is a strong supporter of cryptocurrencies. In the past three months, bitcoin has doubled in prices from $50,000 to nearly $100,000. The campaign promise to establishment of a central bank reserve for bitcoin, if materialized, would push crypto prices significantly higher in the next four years. The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on November 19th, total Open Interest (OI) for Gold Futures is 502,952 contracts, down 33,029 or -6.2% from prior week. Leading the position cutback is Managed Money, which reduces 10,306 (-5.1%) in long positions and 15,911 (-25.6%) in spreading positions. Movement of the “Small Money” is a good indicator of future price trend. Based on the above analysis, if a trader is bearish on gold prices, he could express his opinions by shorting the COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ). MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces. With Monday settlement price of 2,712.2, each December contract (MGCZ4) has a notional value of $27,122. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,150. The MGC contracts are very liquid. On Monday, MGC has a daily trade volume of 178,663 contracts and an Open Interest of 51,364. Hypothetically, if gold prices pull back 5% further to 2,576.6, a short position would gain $1,356 (=135.6 x $10). Using initial margin as cost base, a theoretical return would be +118% (= 1356 / 1150). The risk of shorting futures is a rise on gold prices. Investors could lose part or all of their initial margin. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
2
Gold plunges as Trump 'trumps' seasonalsLast week I revealed in a video of my scepticism gold would tracks its seasonality into December , given its outperformance earlier in the year and the hunch that Trump 2.0 would likely to overshadow typical flows. And Trump's US Treasury Secretary cabinet pick has done just that. Monday's price action should serve as a stark reminder that seasonality has taken a back seat with its prominent bearish engulfing day and most bearish candle in four years. And there could be further losses ahead. The daily chart shows the drop from its all-time high (ATH) came in three waves, which suggests it is the beginning of a larger ABC retracement. Assuming Monday's engulfing candle was the end of wave B, a 100% projection (wave equality) could see gold fall to ~2460. note that the daily low found support around a high-volume node (HVN) and weekly S1 pivot point. A bullish divergence is also forming on the 1-hour RSI (2) to suggest a bounce. Bears could seek to fade into retracement within Monday's range to try and increase the reward to risk ratio. MS
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CityIndex
2024-11-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Neutral. In my weekly outlook I gave the pullback target 2650 and we got 2616. 2600 is the absolut lowest this should go or bulls are in trouble. Best would be to stay above 2620 and then I expect Tuesday or Wednesday another leg up. My target was 2866 but the pullback was much deeper than expected so my upper target is also coming down some. 2800 is still on the table. Will only think about getting bearish below 2540. comment : Will make this quick today. Two paths I think are valid. First one is from my weekly outlook where today was the B from the ABC. C could lead to 2800+. Alternativ is continuation of this triangle for some time. What I don’t see happening is bears breaking below 2500 and continuing down. Bulls would do best to keep this above 2600 and reverse latest from there. Selling is certainly strong enough again to expect more of it. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2550 - 2800 bull case: Bulls see this as a 50% retracement of the recent climactic buying from last week. If they allow it to retest 2580 or lower, odds rise that we will continue sideways instead of higher above 2730. 2630 is the worst place to trade, given the current structure. So look for longs only on very strong momentum and a second buy signal or near 2560 again. Invalidation is below 2540. bear case : Bears are printing much better bear bars than bulls do bull bars and on increased volume at that. They want a to retest 2540 and maybe 2500. If they can get it, I doubt many bulls would continue to expect 2800 or even higher prices. Interesting day tomorrow to see where we will go from here. Invalidation is above 2720. short term: Neutral. 50% retracement of recent bull leg is 2630, so don’t trade around that price. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling anywhere was good.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Gold Set to Rally: Key Insights and Price Levels for Next WeekRecent Performance: Gold has shown remarkable resilience recently as it navigates geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite experiencing a slight downward adjustment of approximately 1.14% this month, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact. It has outperformed silver, indicating strong demand even in the face of market volatility and sell-offs. Concerns regarding gold miners' performance have also emerged, but the overall bullish trend persists amid rising fears of economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. - Key Insights: Investors should closely watch gold as it continues to reflect a robust safe-haven sentiment. The interplay of geopolitical risks and the outlook for central bank policies are critical in shaping gold's trajectory. Analysts are increasingly optimistic about gold's potential to reach the $3,000 mark, positioning it as a key asset in today's volatile financial landscape. Maintaining focus on support levels around $2,550-$2,580 will be essential for identifying buying opportunities. - Expert Analysis: Market sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with experts projecting upward movement for gold in the coming months, primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and increasing demand for hedging against economic instability. Potential volatility from a strengthening U.S. dollar looms, but it is expected that uplifts in geopolitical risk will drive gold’s intrinsic value higher. Analyst projections suggest that if gold breaches immediate resistance levels near $2,800-$2,900, it could mark the beginning of a stronger rally. - Sentiment Analysis: Current sentiment: 70.0 Last week: 0 Change: 70.0 Total mentions: 196 - Price Targets: Next week targets: T1: $2,800 T2: $2,900 Stop levels: S1: $2,580 S2: $2,550 - News Impact: Recent escalations in Ukraine’s military actions have contributed to heightened volatility in the market, influencing not just gold prices but also equity markets. Positive projections from financial institutions like Goldman Sachs indicate cautious optimism regarding market growth. Additionally, expected central bank interest rate cuts could further elevate gold’s appeal, reinforcing its status as a key asset amid economic uncertainty. Investors should remain alert as geopolitical developments unfold, impacting overall market dynamics.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
Timeframes and Correlations in Multi-Asset Markets1. Introduction Understanding correlations across timeframes is essential for traders and investors managing diverse portfolios. Correlations measure how closely the price movements of two assets align, revealing valuable insights into market relationships. However, these relationships often vary based on the timeframe analyzed, with daily, weekly, and monthly perspectives capturing unique dynamics. This article delves into how correlations evolve across timeframes, explores their underlying drivers, and examines real-world examples involving multi-asset instruments such as equities, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. By focusing on these key timeframes, traders can identify meaningful trends, manage risks, and make better-informed decisions. 2. Timeframe Aggregation Effect Correlations vary significantly depending on the aggregation level of data: Daily Timeframe: Reflects short-term price movements dominated by noise and intraday volatility. Daily correlations often show weaker relationships as asset prices react to idiosyncratic or local factors. Weekly Timeframe: Aggregates daily movements, smoothing out noise and capturing medium-term relationships. Correlations tend to increase as patterns emerge over several days. Monthly Timeframe: Represents long-term trends influenced by macroeconomic factors, smoothing out daily and weekly fluctuations. At this level, correlations reflect systemic relationships driven by broader forces like interest rates, inflation, or global risk sentiment. Example: The correlation between ES (S&P 500 Futures) and BTC (Bitcoin Futures) may appear weak on a daily timeframe due to high BTC volatility. However, their monthly correlation might strengthen, aligning during broader risk-on periods fueled by Federal Reserve easing cycles. 3. Smoothing of Volatility Across Timeframes Shorter timeframes tend to exhibit lower correlations due to the dominance of short-term volatility and market noise. These random fluctuations often obscure deeper, more structural relationships. As the timeframe extends, volatility smooths out, revealing clearer correlations between assets. Example: ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) exhibit a weaker correlation on a daily basis because they react differently to intraday events. However, over monthly timeframes, their correlation strengthens due to shared drivers like inflation expectations and central bank policies. By aggregating data over weeks or months, traders can focus on meaningful relationships rather than being misled by short-term market randomness. 4. Market Dynamics at Different Frequencies Market drivers vary depending on the asset type and the timeframe analyzed. While short-term correlations often reflect immediate market reactions, longer-term correlations align with broader economic forces: Equities (ES - S&P 500 Futures): Correlations with other assets are driven by growth expectations, earnings reports, and investor sentiment. These factors fluctuate daily but align more strongly with macroeconomic trends over longer timeframes. Cryptocurrencies (BTC - Bitcoin Futures): Highly speculative and volatile in the short term, BTC exhibits weak daily correlations with traditional assets. However, its monthly correlations can strengthen with risk-on/risk-off sentiment, particularly in liquidity-driven environments. Safe-Havens (ZN - Treasuries and GC - Gold Futures): On daily timeframes, these assets may respond differently to specific events. Over weeks or months, correlations align more closely due to shared reactions to systemic risk factors like interest rates or geopolitical tensions. Example: During periods of market stress, ZN and GC may show stronger weekly or monthly correlations as investors seek safe-haven assets. Conversely, daily correlations might be weak as each asset responds to its unique set of triggers. 5. Case Studies To illustrate the impact of timeframes on correlations, let’s analyze a few key asset relationships: o BTC (Bitcoin Futures) and ES (S&P 500 Futures): Daily: The correlation is typically weak (around 0.28) due to BTC’s high volatility and idiosyncratic behavior. Weekly/Monthly: During periods of broad market optimism, BTC and ES may align more closely (0.41), reflecting shared exposure to investor risk appetite. o ZN (10-Year Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures): Daily: These assets often show weak or moderate correlation (around 0.39), depending on intraday drivers. Weekly/Monthly: An improved correlation (0.41) emerges due to their mutual role as hedges against inflation and monetary uncertainty. o 6J (Japanese Yen Futures) and ZN (10-Year Treasuries): Daily: Correlation moderate (around 0.53). Weekly/Monthly: Correlation strengthens (0.74) as both assets reflect broader safe-haven sentiment, particularly during periods of global economic uncertainty. These case studies demonstrate how timeframe selection impacts the interpretation of correlations and highlights the importance of analyzing relationships within the appropriate context. 6. Conclusion Correlations are not static; they evolve based on the timeframe and underlying market drivers. Short-term correlations often reflect noise and idiosyncratic volatility, while longer-term correlations align with structural trends and macroeconomic factors. By understanding how correlations change across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, traders can identify meaningful relationships and build more resilient strategies. The aggregation of timeframes also reveals diversification opportunities and risk factors that may not be apparent in shorter-term analyses. With this knowledge, market participants can better align their portfolios with prevailing market conditions, adapting their strategies to maximize performance and mitigate risk. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
#202447 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: I was bullish last Sunday and boi did that pay but now is not the time to buy into this climax. Market is way overdue for a pullback but I would not try to pick the top here. Only longs for me on this but only after we have seen some sideways to down movement. Buying is strong enough to expect a second leg up, which could bring us to 2900. I do think it is highly likely that we close this year above 2800. Quote from last week: comment: Market took 48 days to gain the 10% we now lost in 14. This selling is climactic and thus unsustainable. We will soon see a bigger bounce, if not a complete reversal to 2800 again. On the daily chart it looks nasty but on the weekly chart tis but a scratch. Bears closed all but one open bull gap and technically just retested the breakout price for the previous bull leg. This selling is strong enough to seriously doubt much higher prices than 2800. What I do expect is some bounce and more sideways movement between 2600-2800 before we could test lower prices (2300-2400) next year. For now it’s too early to go long, since market has not found a credible bottom yet but since market has not traded much below the weekly 20ema for a year. Swing longs with stop 2480ish are very reasonable. comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: Can you buy the highs at 2700 and hope for a 6th consecutive bullish day? I would not. Only interested in buying this on pullbacks but I due think it’s bullish and nothing else. Will likely close 2024 above 2800 if not 2900. Next target for the bulls is 2750, followed by 2800. Dip can go as low as 2650 but below I would get more cautious. Invalidation is below 2650. bear case: Bears gave up on Monday. No argument for them at all here and I won’t make much up. Can only see more selling pressure coming back around 2800. I expect any pullback to be bought. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Neutral until bulls claim 2630 again. 2540 just has to hold or if we spike down to 2500 we would have to see huge buying or this will flush down more. Bears are in full control until market trades above the 4h ema again. → Last Sunday we traded 2570 and now we are at 2712. Perfect. Hope you made some or at least did not short the lows. short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added two legged correction (ABC)
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds