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XAUTRY1! trade ideas

GOLD Explodes Past All Targets – Massive Gains Achieved!The long trade on GOLD entered at 76195 has surged with incredible momentum, hitting all our profit targets. The current price stands at 78375, confirming the strength of this bullish run. Key Levels Entry: 76195 – Long entry made as the uptrend was confirmed. Stop-Loss (SL): 76062 – Strategically placed to manage downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1): 76358 – Successfully reached, signaling the first leg of the rally. Take Profit 2 (TP2): 76622 – Continued bullish movement hit this target. Take Profit 3 (TP3): 76887 – Strong momentum allowed this target to be met. Take Profit 4 (TP4): 77050 – Final target achieved, capping off a solid bullish trade. Trend Analysis The price has maintained consistent support above the Risological dotted trendline, affirming a robust uptrend. The consistent climb from TP1 to TP4 highlights the power of this movement, with all targets now realized.
MCX:GOLD1!Long
by ProfitsNinja
How to Position if you Missed the Gold RallyGold prices have reached another all-time high, supported by strong bullish momentum. However, the composition of buyers has shifted. While central banks fuelled the previous phase of the rally, institutional investors and retail buyers are now leading. Over the past six months, ETF inflows have totalled nearly $5 billion, and asset managers continue to build net long positions, nearing the peak levels seen during the pandemic. Despite the bullish outlook, higher prices are tempering demand and reducing the potential for future returns. As an alternative, investors can opt for a tactical position using CME Micro Gold futures and the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX). RATE CUTS ARE A GOLD DRIVER Over the past four easing cycles, gold prices have appreciated by 10% following the start of Fed rate cuts. This time around, prices are up 5% since the first rate cut in September. That leaves room for further gains as the Fed cuts further. Still, it is crucial to consider that gold prices are already trading at an all-time-high. Higher prices are pressuring further gains and consumer demand. According to Prithviraj Kothari, president of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), gold demand during this year’s festival season in India is likely to be 20% lower YoY in terms of quantity of gold purchased. CENTRAL BANK BUYING NO LONGER THE DRIVING FACTOR Since April, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has halted gold purchases, while Poland and India acquired 24.3 tons and 17.7 tons of gold, respectively, between June and August, exceeding their purchases from March to May. However, the pace of buying from these central banks may be slowing. The latest data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shows a decline in gold reserves by $98 million to $65.6 billion, indicating a slowdown in gold accumulation despite still substantial holdings. One of the largest buyers of gold this year, Turkey, also slowed its pace of purchases as it acquired just 7.9 tons of gold between June and August compared to 27.6 tons between March and May. Source: World Gold Council Additionally, the urgency for central banks to buy gold has lessened. Earlier, rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar prompted increased gold buying. As U.S. interest rates decrease, a weakening dollar is expected. ASSET MANAGERS NET LONG POSITIONING IS NEAR ALL-TIME-HIGH Asset Manager net long positioning has increased consistently over the last six months. It is near the highest level since the pandemic and 2016. Crucially, the increase in long positioning has been driven by both increasing longs and declining shorts indicating bullish consensus among asset managers. SUBSTANTIAL ETF INFLOWS OVER THE PAST 6 MONTHS Gold ETFs listed in the US have accumulated USD 4.9 billion in inflows over the past 6 months. Inflows have grown by more than USD 1.7 billion since the Fed cut rates in September. While substantial outflows were observed on 8/Aug as global markets fell sharply, the decline was reversed in just 2 weeks. Gold ETF inflows tend to follow cyclical patterns, and their current levels are relatively modest compared to previous inflow cycles, which have been significantly larger. Substantial flows to gold ETFs and rallies in gold prices also tend to trigger flows into gold miner ETFs. Though these flows tend to lag flows into gold ETFs by several months. GOLD MINERS HAVE STARTED TO CATCH UP The outlook for gold remains mixed. While bullish momentum is supported by the anticipation of a Federal Reserve easing cycle, gold is already near all-time highs, which is discouraging further investment, particularly from retail investors. A strategic way to capitalize on the later stages of a gold rally is through gold mining stocks. Gold miners typically lag behind gold during rallies, as returns from equities take longer to materialize and involve greater risk compared to direct gold investments. However, the impact of higher gold prices on miners' profitability is clear. In Q2 2024, Barrick, the world's largest gold miner, saw net income rise by 24% quarter-over-quarter, driven by a 13% increase in realized gold prices. Similarly, Newmont's net income increased by 32%, alongside a 12.3% rise in gold prices. Gold miners are also benefiting from easing cost pressures. While costs remain high compared to last year due to inflation and energy-related increases, they improved in Q2, and further reductions are expected based on company guidance. The gold to gold miner ratio is a cyclical quantity that has been trending higher for decades but also tends to mean-revert when the ratio edges to far in either direction. As the ratio is due to cross the 200-week moving average, it may be due for an extended period of decline favouring gold miners. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Gold remains bullish through the Fed easing cycle and strong investment demand provide momentum. However, higher prices are dampening consumer demand and central bank buying is slowing. Further increase in gold is likely, however, further gains may be limited. Gold prices have already realized half of their average increase following a rate cut. Alternatively, a position that is long on gold miners also benefits from rising gold prices. Gold prices, as tracked through gold futures, are highly correlated with gold miners, measured by ETFs like GDX and SGDM, with a correlation coefficient typically near 0.9, though there are occasional period breaks. Since December 2023, gold prices have outperformed SGDM by nearly 20% and GDX by 5%. As the current gold rally progresses, increased flows into gold miner ETFs are expected to support their prices. Additionally, improving cost structures for miners and higher realized gold prices create positive momentum. Investors can hedge a long position in GDX by taking a short position in CME Micro Gold futures. This hedge protects the ETF position against potential declines in gold prices. The smaller contract size of CME Micro Gold futures makes them ideal for precise hedging, particularly given the smaller unit size of ETFs like SGDM. 637 units of GDX (at a price of 43.15 as of 18/Oct) are balanced by a hedge of 1 CME Micro Gold futures contract expiring in December. CME Micro Gold Futures require margin of just USD 1,100 while the GDX leg requires notional of USD 27,470. The position offers multiple income-generating advantages. The GDX ETF provides a net dividend yield of 0.65% (after accounting for the management fee), and the short position in CME Micro Gold futures benefits from contango, which adds approximately 1% per quarter. The payoff scenarios for this position are provided below: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by mintdotfinance
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: 4 consecutive good bull bars last week and we are on our way to 2800. I have two trend lines pointing to at least 2760, so the last thing I want to be here is bearish. Clearly W5 of this rally and we will likely see bigger profit taking into year end or early next year. Quote from last week: comment: Longer pullback than expected and stopped out on a long but got back in since 2620 held and bulls rallied hard on Friday. I do think it’s bullish only and we will likely make a new ath and also a decent chance to break above again for 2750+. comment: Bullish it was and still is. 2800 is the next big target to hit. After 4 very strong consecutive bull bars, you can not hold a bearish thought while the market makes daily new ath. Two upper bull trend lines are still to hit, one of them leads to 2760 and the other to 2800. On the monthly chart we are in a 8 month micro channel upwards without any selling pressure. At some point market will pull back more and we will see a correction but until we see much greater selling pressure, we can not trade on hope. current market cycle: very strong bull trend key levels: 2650 - 2800 bull case: All arguments are on the bull side and they have a big round number ahead. Any pullback will likely be bought, unless some event would change that. Invalidation is below 2650. bear case: Bears got nothing right now. If they somehow break below the most recent trend line below 2650, that would be a start but they would have to keep the market below 2700 then and make it go more sideways longer before it can reverse more. They know it’s the third leg up (W5) and 2800 is the obvious target. Most will likely not do much until we hit it. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2700+ → Last Sunday we traded 2676 and now we are at 2730. Perfect outlook, hope you made some. short term: Bullish for 2800. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None chart update: Added latest bull gap
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Outlook Oct 21st: Keep BUYING!This weekly forecast is for Oct. 21 - 25th. Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14 - 18th: GOLD | XAUUSD Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. There is the potential for an overdue retracement, but I suspect it will be limited. The formation of a +FVG will support higher prices, and we may get that on Monday's close. Patience.... Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
GOLD is Setting Up For LONGS! Prepare to BUY!Price is pulling back to the Daily +FVG, which is nested in the Weekly +FVG, which is intersected by the Swing High. Three strong confluences for a high probability LONG. Be patient, look for price to contact the POI, and then let your valid buy setup form. Let the rest unfold. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
20
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Gold - Bulls got the breakout above and got rejected at 2700 again. I think we will spend a bit more time at the highs until bulls give up or we find more buyers willing to buy above 2700. Right now I still favor the bulls for continuation but only willing to buy on strong momentum. comment : Retest 2700 is done, now what? We have a proper channel, so trade it. 2690 right now is not a good spot. Wait for a closer price to the lower trend line or look for shorts near 2700, if bulls show weakness again. New highs inside the channel are getting sold, so you should not buy into strength but rather on pullbacks. current market cycle: bull trend (also trading range on the daily chart - 2619 - 2710) key levels: 2670 - 2710 bull case: Bulls will likely retest 2700 tomorrow. Can they get another big breakout above it? I think so but right now it does not look like it. I expect more sideways until the bull trend line on the daily chart is closer. Bulls still in full control and I would not look for shorts on this. Invalidation is below 2670. bear case: Bears selling new highs but thats about it. Market is grinding higher again and we are near the ath. Nothing bearish about this. Bears can start a case if they close below 2670 again. Invalidation is above 2720. short term: neutral - I would not buy 2700 in hope of 2710 but rather buy decent pullbacks inside the current channel. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Very strong breakout above, again. Market currently has no ceiling. Most likely 2700 next and I do think 3000 could be a potential target if we continue. There is certainly an argument for a measured move based on the bull rally from 2018-08 to 2020-08. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Selling 2700.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
Dxy gold silver Weimar Republic 10 16 24. here the dxy may be coming to sellers and this is where I would expect a reversal. the dxy and the metals have been going higher which is not typical. this is probably a signal that the metals are bullish which means there are buyers. on the other hand if the gold or the silver trade lower.... that would be possibly a good time to buy the metals, and I explain this in the video. this is a very dangerous time and a lot of people feel that the US must change its strategy because the dollar cannot be sustained with The amount of spending that has occurred.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Options Blueprint Series [Intermediate]: Vega-Neutral Gold Play1. Introduction Gold is currently in an uptrend, presenting a potentially favorable environment for bullish traders. However, with implied volatility (IV) sitting around its mean, there’s uncertainty about whether IV will rise or fall in the near future. In such a scenario, traders may want to neutralize their vega exposure to avoid being negatively affected by changes in volatility. This article focuses on setting up a Call Ratio Spread, a bullish option strategy that provides positive delta while allowing for further adjustments that could keep vega neutral. This allows traders to capitalize on Gold’s potential uptrend while minimizing risk from changes in implied volatility. 2. Current Market Context The Gold futures market shows strong levels of support, which reinforces the bullish outlook. On the continuous Gold futures chart above GC1!, we observe key support levels at 2646.2 and 2627.2-2572.5. These levels could act as price floors, helping the uptrend continue if tested. Similarly, when examining the contract-specific below chart for GCQ2025, we identify supports at 2725.4 and 2729.5-2705.5. These levels provide solid ground for bullish trades on this specific contract, giving traders additional confidence in entering long positions. With implied volatility near its average (see the chart below), the market’s future volatility direction is unclear. Traders using options may choose adapt to this environment, ensuring that changes in volatility do not work against them. 3. Options Strategy: Call Ratio Spread To take advantage of Gold’s uptrend while neutralizing the risk from changes in volatility, we could employ a Call Ratio Spread. This strategy offers a bullish stance while maintaining vega neutrality, protecting the trader from swings in implied volatility. Setup: Buy 1x 2600 Call at 256.15 Sell 2x 3500 Calls at 23.32 Expiration: July 28, 2025 This configuration generates positive delta, meaning the strategy will benefit from upward price movement. At the same time, by selling two calls at a higher strike, we offset the vega exposure, ensuring that changes in volatility won’t dramatically affect the position. The strike prices and expiration selected help create a risk profile that works well in a bullish market. The maximum gain potential occurs if Gold continues to rise but stays below the higher 3500 strike, while the vega neutrality minimizes any volatility risks as the trade begins. Notice the breakeven point for this strategy is 2809.5, meaning the trade becomes profitable if Gold exceeds this level by expiration. 4. Why Use Micros? Traders looking for a more flexible approach can consider using Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) instead of standard Gold futures contracts. Micro Gold Futures offer smaller contract sizes, which translate into lower margin requirements and a more precise way to control risk. This makes them an attractive alternative for traders with smaller accounts or those looking to scale into positions gradually. Additionally, Micro Gold Futures allow traders to fine-tune their exposure to Gold without the larger capital commitment required by standard contracts. For those implementing strategies like the Call Ratio Spread, Micros provide a cost-effective way to execute similar trades with a lower financial commitment. Contract Specs and Margin Requirements Gold Futures (symbol: GC) represent 100 troy ounces of gold, and their margin requirements can vary depending on market volatility and the broker. Typically, the initial margin requirement for a standard Gold futures contract is around $10,000 to $12,000, but this can fluctuate. For traders seeking more flexibility, Micro Gold Futures (symbol: MGC) offer a smaller contract size, representing 10 troy ounces of gold. The margin requirement for Micro Gold Futures is significantly lower, usually in the range of $1,000 to $1,200, making it a more accessible option for those with smaller accounts or those looking to fine-tune their exposure. 5. Risk Management As with any options trade, managing risk is essential. In the case of a Call Ratio Spread, the primary risk comes from the naked short calls at the 3500 strike price. If Gold rallies aggressively beyond 3500, the trader faces unlimited risk due to the uncovered nature of the short positions. To mitigate this risk, traders should consider using stop-loss orders or adjusting the trade if Gold's price approaches the 3500 level too quickly. Another way to eliminate the unlimited risk component to the upside would be to convert the Call Ratio Spread into a Call Butterfly by buying an additional call above the 3500 strike price, effectively capping the risk. This adjustment still allows for positive delta exposure while limiting potential losses if Gold moves sharply higher. Additionally, monitoring implied volatility is key. While the position starts with neutral vega exposure, this will change as the underlying asset price moves and time passes, especially as expiration approaches. The vega exposure can increase or decrease depending on these factors. If maintaining the vega-neutral characteristic is a priority, further adjustments—such as rolling options or modifying strike prices—could be made to keep the position aligned with the trader’s volatility outlook. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv