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XAUTRY1! trade ideas

Gold Completed a Bullish PatternThe rally from $1824 appears to be an Elliott Wave impulse pattern. As a result, a decline back to $1936 or even $1892 would be considered 'normal' under Elliott Wave Theory. The decline likely hold below the recent high of $2009, but it doesn't have to. If Gold does rally above $2009, then we'll review the wave pattern to discern what adjustments are needed. For the moment, gold has rallied in 5 waves and declined in 3 waves so the larger trend is up and look for declines to be temporary.
COMEX:GC1!
by JWagnerFXTrader
Gold10.24.23 9:30 am The reason I started talking about gold is that I wanted to frame the market to see if there was anything that I could trade today. So I ended up showing you how I would set up my lines and my support resistance areas for what has happened up until the present time. there was an opportunity to short and to go long in this market.... but as you listen to the video you should realize it's not always that easy to find a trade with a good target and a small stop. Because the market is contracted here it's extra difficult because the reversals are quick and they give you limited reward, and it's not an easy trade unless you want to be up all night. but I still think it shows you where the buyers and sellers are. And I'm showing you the way I use range boxes and my other tools. It is possible that in the next hour or so if the market starts moving higher than where we left off there might be a long trade here. I think a contracted market like this is more difficult to trade but if you're careful you might find a couple of gap trades... in-N-Out trading... if you're selective and you have the ability to walk away from the computer before you get burned out. In the end, my belief is to have an opinion about the market looking at these patterns and the price action as opposed to having a Vague feeling... About the market.. which makes this impulse trading as opposed to thoughtful trade because you see an edge. It's best to stay away from the hard decisions... and wait for the easier ones.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Extended Trend on GoldLet's take a quick look at the 4 hour chart on Gold. Notice the TrendCloud has turned the candles ice blue. This is showing us that the trend has become "extended" and will most likely have a deep pull back that will go below the 50 SMA. Momentum is down and we are starting to pull back. We can start shorting gold when and if it first breaks 1981.4. TrendCloud is starting to give us sell signals on the opening range breakout today. OR we can wait for a deep pullback into our demand zone at 1937.7 to 1930.6 on the 4 hour chart. THEN start to buy it again.
COMEX:GCZ2023
by thechrisjuliano
3 Reasons Why You Should Consider GoldHello there hope you are well and trading safely. There is a huge bull run also- am from handling down an argument at my home -- Hence why I delayed reporting on this price movement -- But we are still here and the markets will move whether am angry, sad, or happy the opportunity to make money will always be here. -- #1-The price is above the 50-day Moving average #2-The 50-day Moving Average is above the 200-day moving average #3-The 50-day Moving Average Has Crossed The 200-day Moving Average. -- If you are interested in this price action then you need to learn more -- To learn more Rocket Boost this content -- Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do not buy or sell anything I recommend to you
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
🏆 Gold at a Crossroads: The Old Guard vs. Bitcoin, the New Era Hey Gold Traders! 🌟 Gold is at a pivotal point, but let's not forget there's a new kid on the block—Bitcoin. 🗺️ 📈 Chart Analysis: Gold is hovering around a resistance level of 2001. It's decision time, folks. ⚖️ 📉 Short Targets: If Gold can't break 2001, I'm eyeing short positions with targets at 1938 and 1881. 🎯 📈 Long Scenario: Should it soar past 2001, I'll flip the script and go long, targeting 2052 and maybe 2134. 🚀 🤔 Gold vs. Bitcoin: Think of Gold as the landline phone—reliable but limited. Bitcoin is the smartphone—versatile and the future. 📱☎️ 🔮 Outlook: Gold has its merits, but let's be real, Bitcoin is the new era safe haven. If things go south, I know which asset I'd rather hold. 🛡️ That's the scoop! Stay golden or maybe, go crypto? 🤔 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
COMEX:GC1!Short
by FX_Professor
Did gold just to choose to shoot up to $2.169?Gold like many other markets have been in difficult territory to trade well this year. We cannot predict but only probability predict. And with probabilities, things can change so quickly. I am currently long a couple of gold stocks as of last week, and it looks like the direction is right for now. And finally, the gold price is matching the drapes. We are seeing gold stocks head on up along with the precious metal which is bringing somewhat a positive correlation. If we look at the overall pattern, since March it's formed an unattractive Symmetrical Triangle. And now the price has broken above the triangle, choosing a direction - UP This is also coincidental as the world markets have broken down in their Sideways 1 year range. We can expect world markets to continue down, while gold is more likely to rally. Could it be the safe-haven status market we need right now for when things are down? With cryptomaniacs scared to invest based on what's happened over the last two years and with NFTs losing over 90% of their value. It could be the best market to invest in at the moment. Good old trustworthy boomer of an investment. 7>21>200 RSI>50 Target $2,169
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Timonrosso
Seeking Shelter in Gold on Rising Geopolitical RisksShining bright and sizzling hot, gold has surged 8% over the past two weeks. Ample supply of geopolitical shocks from violence in the Middle East to ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been driving gold high. This paper examines the drivers supporting the gold rally and prevailing bullish & bearish factors. It posits two hypothetical trades to astutely position portfolios amid a raft of geopolitical and economic shocks. GOLD IS A HAVEN WHEN GEOPOLITICS DELIVER SHOCKS In a previous paper , Mint Finance highlighted that gold is a resilient store of wealth as it outperforms in times of extreme volatility. Geopolitical tensions remain intense amid ongoing armed conflicts in Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel which underpins gold as an investor haven. Gold responds to elevated geopolitical risks as reported by the World Gold Council . A 100 unit increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index ( GPR ) has a 2.5% positive impact on gold returns as measured by the Gold Return Attribution Model ( GRAM ). GOLD IS TRADING AT KEY PSYCHOLOGICAL PRICE LEVEL Gold prices have catapulted more than 8% since the rapid escalation in violence in the middle east over the last two weeks. Gold now trades just below USD 2,000/oz. The USD 2,000/oz mark is clearly an important psychological level. A more crucial level is USD 2,100/oz. Gold prices have failed to breach 2,100 three times over the last three years. Gold prices are exhibiting a solid bullish momentum. It has surpassed two resistance levels (1,902.9 and 1,943.4). Price action is close to forming a golden cross between 9-day and 100-day simple moving average. Gold is likely to surpass the USD 2,000/oz over the next few days. However, passing the sticky USD 2,100/oz levels might be more challenging. The continuous rally over the past two weeks may be due for a correction if the momentum fails to hold. RSI has already raced past its upper bound. Large upward moves are known to be followed by sharp price pullbacks. SEASONAL DEMAND FROM GOLD MAJORS POSITIVELY AFFECTS GOLD PRICES The top two largest gold consumers are China and India. Combined, they represent ~50% of total global demand. Both paint a positive picture for gold demand. 1. Shrinking Premiums in China to bolster demand China represents 25% of global gold demand. China’s domestic gold availability has been strained over the past few months while demand has remained high leading to an all-time-high premium on domestic gold prices over international gold prices. These premiums have eased sharply over the past few days as supply conditions improve after China’s golden week holidays. Lower premium on domestic gold makes it an attractive buy. Furthermore, wholesale gold demand in China is showing signs of improvement. Gold ETFs are attracting notable inflows. The PBoC is building its gold reserves at a brisk pace. 2. Strong Monsoon cements solid demand for Gold in India India represents 24% of global gold demand. Monsoon and festivals have a major impact on Indian gold demand. Indian consumers buy gold as wedding gifts or as investments during festivals. Demand is expected to spike during the upcoming festival and wedding season. This year, India witnessed a wet monsoon which bodes well for farmers. Consequently, that is good for gold demand too. Rural India represents 60% of the country’s gold demand. As highlighted by Debbie Carlson in CME OpenMarkets , a wet monsoon leads to better harvests and higher earnings for farmers driving a positive effect on gold demand. GOLD PRICES ARE SIZZLING HOT Despite the bullish drivers, a major headwind to the gold demand is its high prices. Gold prices remain elevated. Higher prices lead to guarded consumers. With prices 9% higher YTD and 20% higher over the past one-year, the rally in prices until now has been rapid, making consumers wary of overinvesting in the yellow metal. Gold does not generate yields. It pays no dividends or interest. When risk free rates remain high, investing in gold is not lucrative. As the 10Y US Treasury yield stubbornly stays around 5%, investors opt for treasuries over gold. Gold prices are at record high in several non-USD currencies. That makes gold even more expensive. Weaker Indian Rupee and the Chinese Renminbi crushes domestic demand down. INSIGHTS FROM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS AND OPTIONS MARKET Asset managers had been building up net short positioning in CME Gold Futures until recently. Bearish sentiment in gold began in July, when investors started to anticipate further Fed rate hikes. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, these asset managers are shifting away from net short to net long positioning over the last one week. Implied volatility on gold options has shot up to levels last seen during the banking crisis in March, but historical volatility remains far lower in comparison. This suggests potential for rising volatility ahead. Source: CVOL Skew on gold options have surged with call premiums having risen faster than put premiums. Source: CME Quikstrike Options traders are far more bullish than those trading Gold futures. Put/Call ratio for gold options is 0.52 implying two calls (bullish bets) for every put (bearish bet). Source: CME Quikstrike HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP A hypothetical long position in CME Micro Gold Futures can be used to harness gains from the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment in gold. CME Micro Gold Futures expiring in December (MCGZ23) provides exposure to 10 oz of gold. It requires an initial maintenance margin of USD 780 (as of 23rd Oct 2023). These micro contracts can be used to secure granular exposure in a capital efficient manner. Still, given the uncertainty and the risk for sharp reversal, a tight stop loss is appropriate to protect from a sharp price correction. Entry: USD 1,994 Target: USD 2,090 Stop Loss: USD 1,945 Profit at Target: USD 960 ((2090-1994) x 10) Loss at Stop: USD 490 ((1994-1945) x 10) Reward to Risk: 2.1x Alternatively, investors can deploy bull call spread on CME Gold Options expiring in December (OGF4) to express the view that gold may retest USD 2,100/oz but not rise beyond. A Bull Call Spread consists of a long call position at a lower strike (USD 2,020) and a short call position at a higher strike (USD 2,100). The position requires net premium of USD 2,400 (USD 4,970 - USD 2,570). The payoff for the hypothetical position is provided below. Both upside and downside for the position are fixed. Hypothetically, the position breaks even when prices reach USD 2,044/oz and has a maximum payoff of USD 5,600. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by mintdotfinance
Gold (GC1! Futures) Intraday ShortAfter Sunday's open, we are now back at the open of the night - plus one or two points. Starting the trading day early has it's benefits. The difference being now however that the short term trend has also now turned BEARISH. Now that the short term trend AND the overall trend are now the same, it's time to follow the overall bias. Looking to entry a SHORT position on a breakout of the new recent low, as this would provide confirmation that the price is truly reversing at this point. After the amount of news over the past few days, don't expect the pace of the market to slow down. The reactive trader will be the winner in this kind of environment. Be flexible with your view on the market or you will find yourself being left behind!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Aaron_K_Trading
Gold (GC1! Futures) Intraday LONGThis is a follow on from my analysis earlier today: The the estimated daily target at the first minor zone has been hit on Sunday open. The fact that the move was bought up so aggressively indicates that our next shorting location is higher up. I am currently long from S1. I will update again in the morning, but it is highly likely we will develop a trending day on the Market Profile, but again, I will provide an update in the morning.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Aaron_K_Trading
Gold (GC11 Futures) Mid Term Analysis - SHORTLast week saw a lot of emotional buying of the market. While some short positions were not viable later in the week, there has now been a clear rejection from: 1) The higher zone mentioned prior: 2) The previous long term weekly H&S pattern mentioned back in August: In terms of current price action, it seems that an inverse H&S pattern is forming on the daily. We can also see that in terms of the RSI - with tweaked values more suited for long term analysis - that the price is EXTREMELY overbought. Note on the chart that historically - when using my specific settings - that there is a high probability for a reversal. In terms of the DXY, TECHNICALLY it is still BULLISH on the daily, and has been simply consolidating for the past few days. Please note this infographic: The probability for a move down for Gold seems more likely. There are two scenarios: 1) A retrace to the first minor zone around 1973.5 - 1967, based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent daily impulsive move. The bottom point starting from the low of Monday 16th, and the high point being Friday 20th. 2) A retrace to the purple zone, starting at 1940.5, extending down to 1921. This is based on the Fibonacci retracement of the recent weekly wave up: . Scenario 2 seems more like of the two, as it would be a logical place for the final shoulder to form in line with this analysis. There are a variety of ways to approach an entry for this week: 1) Buy PUT options around this price. If you do not have access to this functionality because you are trading CFD's, look into using the broker "Avatrade". They feature short term options spanning a few days, and while they are as powerful as traditional options, it can shield you from some of the short term volatility. 2) Look for a breakout sell below the low of Fridays candle, that being 1983.7 on the Futures. 3) Look for to short the 0.618 retracement of Fridays candle. 4) Look to short near the top of Fridays wick, essentially forming a double top. 5) Wait for a confirmed flip of the 21 / 55 EMA's, and look for a short around a relevant pivot. I will be opting for approach 1, as well as approach 3. Manage your risk accordingly. Just as a final note: Please note, there will be times where losses will be taken, but if you are entering around historical areas of support / resistance, they will be extremely negligible compared to your overall profits. Aim for points, not pips. Also please keep in mind, it is good practice to take profit as a position runs. Taking some profit out after 5 to 10 points is not a bad thing. I hope this analysis will help you for the week ahead. I will be posting more closer to time analysis throughout the week. The majority of my time will be spent either here OR in private chat, so if you have any questions, feel free to ask! Good luck! Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Aaron_K_Trading
Gold is building it's topFollowing a substantial rally that yielded approximately $200 in gains over the course of two weeks, gold is now exhibiting initial indications of a potential formation at its peak. It is noteworthy that the cumulative delta demonstrates a bearish divergence in comparison to prior rally instances. For those considering short positions, it is advisable to establish tightly positioned stop-loss orders while pursuing favorable Risk-Reward Ratios (RRRs). This particular short trade opportunity presents a Risk-Reward Ratio exceeding 4.5:1, emphasizing a potentially advantageous position for traders.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Ochlokrat
Gold in a RetracementGold bulls will get their chance to prove whether or not we bull, not above 2,000 but in the 1893-1937 level in futures. Why? Bull markets are made in the holding the retracement. We did break the Daily short, exceeding the 61.8% line of the Daily Short. Usually, when that happens, it's profit taking that will bring the market back. Doesn't mean we can't break into new highs, just much tougher. Friday was a good example of it, with an aggressive downside after we hit highs. I will be looking for intraday short setups and for daily price action to bring us back 50-70 bucks in gold.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by CeresTrader
Gold (GC1! Futures) Identifying next SHORT zoneAs of today, GC1 has now broken above the current zone, and has closed on a higher timeframe. In accordance with prior breaks, we now look for a retest of the broken zone at the 0.5 FIB of todays daily candle: The next target is either: 1) The next zone up OR 2) The prior neck line of the long term H&S identified in August. Keep in mind, despite this short term bullish price action, the trend for Gold is still BEARISH, hence why we continue to long for short opportunities at each historical zone. Just to be clear : My trading is based off of many factors, but an important factor is the many historical monthly zones plotted on the chart. While there will be times where the zones are broken against our favour, the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of the time, these zones will hold. As highlighted on the chart, these are all examples of where adhering to these zones would have netted 50 - 100 points moves. Points, not pips. I will be posting more real time updates though the day of 20/10/23. Stay safe and manage your risk accordingly!
COMEX:GC1!
by Aaron_K_Trading
1
The Gold Odyssey - Breaking out of top consolidation finallyIF you had been following the series of The Gold Odyssey, you would know how well the probabilities are in the analyses. To the point, Gold is ready to break its almost three year consolidation (huge) range. 1. You can see the powerful reversal off the mid-range support; 2. The candles show and project good momentum to follow through; 3. A trend line breakout already just happened with the week not closed yet; and 4. MACD and VolDiv are only starting to align for a good bullish breakout. Incoming!!!!
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Gold (GC1! Futures) Mid Term UpdateFollowing on from my analysis from yesterday, towards the end of yesterday's trading session, Gold printed a very strong hanging man candle. Traditionally, when this candle is printed near the top of a rally, it signifies a substantial move down. Also keep in mind, data releases so far for this week have been good for the dollar, and let us also remember that while the war on Palestine is very sad, the market is over the war shock now. We were always in an overall bearish trend, so now I expect gold to continue its move down. Infact, in reference to my prior weekly analysis, which places the long term target at 1745 - future price - we can now expect the long term scenario to start playing out. I will be updating this post through the day. I have already gone short with a SL above the current daily high. If I see another good shorting location in the day, I will post it here as a comment. Please be aware, this is not financial advice.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Aaron_K_Trading
4