Good Evening and I hope you are well.gold futures
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bulls continue inside the wedge and buy every dip they get. 2450 obvious magnet above. I won’t make this longer than it has to be. Weekly and monthly charts also just give bullish signals for this. This month is still an inside bar on the monthly chart, so if bears keep this as a lower high, odds favor trading back down to around 2320.
comment: Market got it’s 2450 and some, formed a higher high double top and sold off for 127 points. We are right at the lower bull channel trend line and it’s a higher low. Bad place to trade or make predictions. I do think 2454 is a credible high for a decade.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 2290 - 2454
bull case: Bulls met all targets above imo and had their retest and the double top. They need to keep this above 2330 to not risk an accelerated selling. Above 2350 would be better to trade back inside the bull channel again. It’s still a small pull-back on the weekly chart and the weekly 20ema is around 2250, that’s far away. I expect bulls to get a pull-back here to at least the daily 20ema at 2360 or the breakout price 2380.
bear case: Bears printed 2 big consecutive bear bars last week and the selling was strong enough to get a second leg. Measured move would bring us right to 2200, so naturally I drew a nice channel for you. R:R here is clearly on the short side. Bears need to keep it below 2380 and make lower lows below 2285. Will write an update on Gold in my Monday after hours.
outlook last week: “Small pull-back before another test of 2448 (typo said 2348) or higher. Invalid below 2370.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 2417 and now we are at 2334. Thought small pull-back and then gave an update on Monday that I entered swing short at 2429 and gave that for free in my after hour update. That positions is now 950 ticks in profit. Hope you made some.
short term: Sideways to up - Expecting a pull-back to 2360/2380 where the next move is decided. I prefer a second leg down, after the pull-back, which then transforms into a bear trend down to 2200.
medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2450. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is dumb and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so DON’T.
current swing trade: Still holding some shorts since 2429. SL is 2352.
Chart update: Added new preferred bear channel
