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Palladium USD per ounce Futures

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XPDUSDJ2025 trade ideas

Palladium: Analyzing the Recent Surge in PricesSince the beginning of August 2024, Palladium has experienced a notable surge in value, reaching approximately $1,250 today. This strong bullish rally signals renewed interest in the precious metal, driven by various market dynamics. However, as the price approaches a critical supply area, traders must exercise caution and prepare for potential market reversals. Price Movement and Historical Context The recent price increase in Palladium has not gone unnoticed, and it coincides with a historical trend. Over the past five years, data shows that Palladium has typically encountered a reversal in value around this time of year. This historical pattern serves as a vital reference point for traders considering their next moves. Evaluating Supply Areas and Potential Reversals As Palladium nears a significant supply area, it becomes essential to analyze price action carefully. Before contemplating any short positions, it is prudent to wait for a clear bearish pattern to emerge. This approach minimizes the risk of entering prematurely, particularly in a market characterized by bullish momentum. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals contrasting positions among market participants. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions, indicating optimism regarding Palladium's future performance. Conversely, "smart money" or institutional investors have begun to build bearish positions, suggesting that they anticipate a potential downturn. This divergence in sentiment may create a volatile environment as both sides adjust their strategies. The Importance of Patience In the current landscape, patience is crucial. Rushing into trades without solid confirmation can lead to unfavorable outcomes. By waiting for a clear bearish signal, traders can better position themselves for potential market reversals. This disciplined approach aligns with the principles of risk management and enhances the chances of executing successful trades. Conclusion In summary, Palladium's recent rally to $1,250 places it at a critical juncture. As it approaches a historically significant supply area, traders must remain vigilant and analytical. Observing the emergence of a bearish pattern, coupled with insights from the COT report, will be essential in determining the appropriate timing for any potential short positions. With patience and a strategic mindset, traders can navigate the current market conditions effectively. What are your thoughts on Palladium's trajectory, and how do you plan to position yourself in this evolving landscape? ✅ Please share your thoughts about PA1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PA1!
by FOREXN1
5
Ducks in A Barrel Long Setups - BTC, SOL, TON & PADISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This for educational purposes only to show how I am looking to participate in these markets. Trading involves significant risk, do your own homework and due diligence. Ducks in a Barrel Weekly-Daily Strategy LONGS: BTC, SOL, TON SHORT: PA LONGS: The crypto market is overall in a strong up trend based on weekly MA's sloping up. We see that BTC, SOL & TON are undervalued vs the price of Gold and Treasuries, and are oversold on stochastic. If we see a trend change to the upside on the Daily chart, I'll look to long these markets. I admit, I'd like to see sentiment more bearish, as currently sentiment is in the middle of the road. Perhaps one more flush to the downside would create some panic and bearish sentiment, which would make this trade idea even more valid. SHORTS: Palladium is in a strong weekly downtrend. Right now we are overvalued vs treasuries, but not yet overvalued vs gold or overbought. I'd like to see this market get overbought & overvalued vs gold to qualify looking for shorts on the daily time frame. Good luck & Good trading.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by Tradius_Trades
Palladium is breaking out of the long-term downtrendTechnical Analysis of Palladium: Palladium may now be in the process of establishing a bottom after a sharp decline from around USD 3,000 to today around USD 1,000. Solid technical support has been established for Palladium around USD 850, and on the upside there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,120. An established break above USD 1,120 will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which will then have the potential to initially reach USD 1,350, which will then be the next important technical resistance level. Further up, there is an important technical resistance level around USD 1,600. Palladium has now broken above the 50-day moving average, and is also about to break above the 200-day moving average. The overall technical picture for Palladium now signals that a break above the important technical resistance level around USD 1,120 could come shortly. In that case, it will trigger a strong technical buy signal for Palladium, which is then considered to have a potential of around USD 1,600 in the 3-6 month term.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by StockCharts365
PA1!: K.O. or bear-trap Round 2?With rate cut questions fueled by the West's bumbling towards another Mid-East war, palladium bears have returned the recent pump to sender with a vengeance. Factor in more EVs and the future for the PGMs looks bleak, right? But a closer look suggests not is all as it seems for these precious metals with their unique properties. A recent Reuters article from December 2023 revealed that Russian and Chinese scientists with government backing "have been conducting semi-industrial tests of palladium-based catalysts for the hydrogen industry's water electrolysis and fuel cell technology," with the tests "due to be completed in the first quarter of 2024." With Russia being the largest miner of palladium and China the biggest importer, these new "products could add 40 metric tons of global demand for palladium by 2030, offsetting a surplus of 10-20 tons owing to the expected reduction in consumption by the automotive industry by the same year". Furthermore, tests of these new "palladium-based catalysts for the chemicals industry will start in the second quarter" of 2024 with focus also on the "development of a palladium-based photocell..for the solar power sector." (source: www.reuters.com) Add to this equation massive US investment in a hydrogen economy as evidenced by the number of projects presenting at CES '24 and PA1! is worth keeping an eye on. (Disclaimer: Any and all ideas and or comments published by me is not financial advice and you trade at your own risk.)
NYMEX:PA1!
by R0llins_
Palladium: deaths, taxes and PA1!They say only deaths and taxes are certain, and yet palladium's recent pump and dump has been so clockwork it puts German trains to shame. They also say markets never travel in straight lines, but clearly they haven't traded palladium which has now retraced all the way back to where it pumped from. On the 4 hourly chart, the precious metal has been swimming with the fishes under the RSI's oversold for more than week and yet despite appearances it can't stay there forever. With the economy in soft-landing rude health and interest rate cuts in sight, hints of which likely spurred this metal out of its slumber, how long until we see another clockwork pump back up to the daily 200MA and beyond?
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by R0llins_
Palladium: looking for directionAfter a fantastic pump, the profit taking dump has been relentlessly orderly and is now at a crossroads. Currently bouncing off the .786 Fib, will we see a bullish trend emerge with a higher monthly high, or will demand continue to lag and its bear channel resume? One thing that may be worth considering here is palladium's importance in hydrogen energy production. If hydrogen fuel is going to feature strongly in the transition to clean energy as global investment in it indicates, then palladium may well be currently selling at a discounted price.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by R0llins_
Palladium: Time for the Turnaround! 🔄Palladium is heading a little further downwards: the price is now drilling deeper and deeper into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: $1092 - $997). We expect that the low of wave B in turquoise will be deposited within this price range and that the trend reversal to the north will then succeed, which should subsequently bring us the price increases in wave C in turquoise. All technical conditions have now been met for this low; however, we allow the price to move a little lower again within our Zone. To hedge or minimize the risk of long trades, a stop 1% below the lower edge of the Zone can be placed. However, if the primarily expected bullish trend reversal succeeds, the metal should soon break above the resistance at $1257 and thus gain fresh upward momentum.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Palladium ready to blow off topPalladium had been in a bearish channel for some time, but after a double bottom it's gone W in a big way. That way has been nearly vertical but is now looks exhausted. Having been rejected from the 1.618 Fib, profit taking will be next as everyone gets ready to race for the door. Looking closer on the 4H chart, the 50MA is about to cross up over the 200, which is a golden cross on a daily chart, but a look at price action and it's meekly dribbling sideways while the RSI remains precariously in overbought territory. Unless there have been abrupt orders for 50 million additional combustion engine cars no-one's talking about, this puppy otherwise in a demand death bleed is ready to blow off top.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by R0llins_
Palladium power playTrading Idea: Buy PAUSD (Palladium) A decline in CME Palladium's commodity price has been observed over the past three months. Idea core logic: This long trading strategy identifies commodities with current prices that are significantly higher than their 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages. The strategy also looks for commodities with an exponential slow moving average that is significantly higher than the current price. By analyzing these metrics, the strategy generates notable support and resistance levels. Traders can use these levels for market entry and exit, maximizing their profit potential. Trading Strategy: Asset Symbol: PAUSD Latest Price: $1,139.75 Asset Class: Commodity Rationale: The price of PAUSD has been on a decline over the past three months, indicating a potential buying opportunity. PAUSD's current price is significantly lower than its 200-day, 50-day, and 21-day moving averages, suggesting that it may be undervalued. The exponential slow moving average for PAUSD is significantly higher than the current price, indicating a potential upward trend. By buying PAUSD at its current price, traders can take advantage of the potential price reversal and profit from the expected upward movement. Risk Assessment: This trading idea is suitable for a moderately short investment horizon and a high risk tolerance. As with any investment, there is always a risk of loss. Traders should carefully manage their risk and set appropriate stop-loss levels. It is recommended to closely monitor the market and adjust the trading strategy accordingly based on the provided facts. Technical Outlook CME Palladium has receded 44.8 below a resistance level of 1,103.33. In the near term, the Palladium future is approaching its 21 day Simple Moving Average at $1,140.24. The uptrend of CME Palladium continues, with its share price rising 3.26% over the past 9 days. Today, it is expected to rise a further $2.23, or 0.2%. During the first half of today's session, the Palladium future rebounded from earlier losses, recovering from lows around $1,128.78. Over the past month, there has been a downward trend in CME Palladium's share price, with a decline of 9.31%. However, there are signs of a possible bullish phase emerging. Palladium has broken above its 21 day Simple Moving Average at 1,140.24. This could indicate the start of a new bullish trend. Furthermore, CME Palladium is pushing upwards towards a key Bollinger Band® level around 1,172. Extensive multifactorial technical analysis suggests that CME Palladium will continue to extend its strong run in the short-medium term. Today, it reached as high as $1,143.78. With all probabilities considered, the Palladium future is expected to appreciate amid a risk-on mood in the coming days. In comparison, other commodities are also showing positive movements. Platinum is currently trading at around 949.05, up 0.97% from the previous session's close of 939.9. Meanwhile, Copper recorded a gain of 0.23% despite touching lows around $1,128.78.
NYMEX:PA1!Long
by NomolosAI
Palladium: The Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternIn the price action of palladium futures, recent development has been the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This technical formation, characterized by a temporary dip followed by a rise and then another dip, has garnered the attention of traders and investors, who are closely monitoring the implications for future price movements. The pattern's appearance suggests a potential shift in the dynamics of palladium futures, however we will need to close above the 21-DMA while holding a higher high than the 10/23 low to confirm a shift in momentum. Against the backdrop of this pattern, there is an important factor to consider: the influence of Chinese economic data. While the strong Chinese economic data may offer some optimistic prospects, it is essential to recognize that it could also present a headwind for palladium prices. China is a major consumer of palladium, with a significant portion of its demand coming from the automotive industry. The robust Chinese economic data, including impressive industrial production and manufacturing figures, might seem like a boon at first glance, but it raises concerns of potential shifts in policy measures. In response to such strong economic performance, authorities may consider tightening regulations to address environmental concerns, which could impact the demand for palladium in catalytic converters. Additionally, the data could influence broader global economic sentiment, introducing an element of uncertainty into the market. Investors may be compelled to reassess their strategies as they grapple with the dual forces of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential upward move, and the potential headwind created by the Chinese economic data. As the market navigates the interplay between these factors, market participants are likely to proceed with caution, recognizing the need for a balanced perspective when assessing the future trajectory of palladium futures. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
NYMEX:PA1!
by Blue_Line_Futures