Silver's destiny and palladiuimSilver's destiny lies along side a recovery in palladium.
#silver #palladium #recession #inflation #recovery
XPDUSD1! trade ideas
Palladium: The Inverse Head and Shoulders PatternIn the price action of palladium futures, recent development has been the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern.
This technical formation, characterized by a temporary dip followed by a rise and then another dip, has garnered the attention of traders and investors, who are closely monitoring the implications for future price movements.
The pattern's appearance suggests a potential shift in the dynamics of palladium futures, however we will need to close above the 21-DMA while holding a higher high than the 10/23 low to confirm a shift in momentum.
Against the backdrop of this pattern, there is an important factor to consider: the influence of Chinese economic data. While the strong Chinese economic data may offer some optimistic prospects, it is essential to recognize that it could also present a headwind for palladium prices.
China is a major consumer of palladium, with a significant portion of its demand coming from the automotive industry. The robust Chinese economic data, including impressive industrial production and manufacturing figures, might seem like a boon at first glance, but it raises concerns of potential shifts in policy measures.
In response to such strong economic performance, authorities may consider tightening regulations to address environmental concerns, which could impact the demand for palladium in catalytic converters.
Additionally, the data could influence broader global economic sentiment, introducing an element of uncertainty into the market.
Investors may be compelled to reassess their strategies as they grapple with the dual forces of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential upward move, and the potential headwind created by the Chinese economic data.
As the market navigates the interplay between these factors, market participants are likely to proceed with caution, recognizing the need for a balanced perspective when assessing the future trajectory of palladium futures.
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🎯 Palladium to Platinum Metal Spread vs. American BigTech IndexThe breathtaking rally in palladium appears to be coming to the end.
Rising supply and slowing demand are undermining the price of a metal used to neutralize car exhaust emissions.
Palladium, once the cheapest of the major precious metals, soared from under $500 an ounce in 2016 to over $3,400 last March, leaving platinum and gold far behind.
The reason for the rally was growing demand from automakers who needed more palladium per vehicle to meet tightening emission standards.
However, supply could not keep up, resulting in huge shortages for some. And no less huge profits for others.
Now this is changing.
Electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need palladium are gaining more market share, and automakers are replacing some of the palladium with cheaper platinum in ICE vehicles.
Meanwhile, the supply of recycled cars is growing as those with more palladium are being scrapped more and more.
Palladium has fallen to around $1,600 an ounce, shedding more than 50 percent from its 2022 highs, and analysts are predicting an average price of just $1,150 an ounce in 2027.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that demand from automakers will fall by about 400,000 ounces between 2022 and 2027, while supply from car recycling will increase by 1.2 million ounces, with demand for palladium almost 90% dependent on automotive industry.
This will push the market at around 11 million ounces per year to a near-million ounce surplus in 2027, they said.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel, which accounts for appr. 38-40% of the world's palladium supplies, said its palladium production will fall by 8-14% this year.
Techical picture indicates Palladium to Platinum metal spread erases as much as 50 percent vs. its peaked near 3.0 in 2022, whereas the Bearish market in Palladium has fully launched.
The similar case has happened in early 00s when Palladium to Platinum ratio lost more than 90 percent over decade, as well as Nasdaq - major american BigTech index.
Will the history fully repeat itself. Or will be written in a rhyme. Lets see.
Palladium Trade Plan based on Option SentimentOption activity in palladium is quite rare. On October 19 the verical spread with targets of $1150-1200 was passed. Despite the insignificant volume, it stands out sharply against the background of previous observations. The logic of this spread is the correction to the area of the previous support.
Palladium Outlook for the Next 3 MonthsSpot palladium is the physical form of palladium that is traded on the spot market. It is not a futures contract, and it is not subject to the same margin requirements as futures contracts. This makes spot palladium a more attractive option for investors who want to avoid the risks associated with futures contracts.
The outlook for spot palladium in the next 3 months is uncertain. On the one hand, the global economy is expected to slow down in the second half of 2023, which could put downward pressure on palladium prices. On the other hand, there are a number of factors that could support palladium prices in the coming months.
These include:
Rising demand from the automotive industry: Palladium is a key component in catalytic converters, which are used to reduce emissions from vehicles. As the global economy grows and more vehicles are produced, demand for palladium is expected to increase.
Supply constraints: The supply of palladium is relatively limited, and there are concerns that supply could be further constrained due to sanctions against Russia, a major producer of palladium.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain elevated in the coming months, which could make palladium an attractive investment for investors seeking a hedge against inflation.
Overall, the outlook for spot palladium in the next 3 months is uncertain. However, there are a number of factors that could support palladium prices in the coming months. Investors who are looking for a hedge against inflation or supply constraints may want to consider investing in spot palladium.
How to Trade Spot Palladium
There are a number of ways to trade spot palladium. One way is to buy and sell physical palladium bars or coins.
This is the most direct way to invest in palladium, but it can also be the most expensive. Another way to trade spot palladium is to buy and sell futures contracts on the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM).
Futures contracts are a type of derivative that gives the buyer the right to purchase or sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on a specified date. Options contracts are another way to trade spot palladium. Options contracts give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date.
How to Trade Spot Palladium Options There are two main types of spot palladium options contracts: call options and put options. Call options give the buyer the right to purchase a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date. Put options give the buyer the right to sell a certain amount of palladium at a specified price on or before a specified date.
The price of a spot palladium option contract is determined by a number of factors, including the strike price, the expiration date, and the volatility of the underlying palladium price. The strike price is the price at which the buyer of the option can purchase or sell the palladium. The expiration date is the date on which the option contract expires.
The volatility of the underlying palladium price is a measure of how much the price of palladium is expected to fluctuate over time. To trade spot palladium options, you will need to open an account with a brokerage firm that offers options trading. You will also need to deposit funds into your account. Once your account is funded, you can place orders to buy or sell spot palladium options contracts.
Hedge Positions with Speculative Trading on the Stock Exchange
Companies that use palladium in their production process can hedge against the risk of changes in palladium prices by trading on the stock exchange. For example, a company that uses palladium in its production process might buy shares of a company that mines palladium.
This will help to protect the company from rising palladium prices, as the value of its shares will likely increase when palladium prices go up. Companies can also use options contracts to hedge against the risk of changes in palladium prices. For example, a company that uses palladium in its production process might buy put options on spot palladium.
This will give the company the right to sell palladium at a specified price, even if the market price of palladium falls. This will help to protect the company from losses if palladium prices fall.
Speculative trading on the stock exchange can be a risky proposition, but it can also be a way for companies to profit from changes in palladium prices. However, it is important to remember that speculative trading is not a guaranteed way to make money. Companies should carefully consider the risks and rewards before engaging in speculative trading.
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Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are comfortable with the potential for losses.
Rating: Mixed Outlook
Risk Disclaimer!
The article and the data is for general information use only, not advice!
The Trade Academy R&D Team
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General Risk Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider whether you can afford the high risk of loss.
UPDATE: Palladium on track to $880.00Since our last update, Palladium broke below a Descending Triangle at $1,614 and is currently at $1,227.
The downtrend is strong and now there is a Rounding Top formation.
Break below and it could very well go to our first target of $880.
I'll let you know.
Palladium: Early Bird? 🐦Primarily, we expect Palladium to move downwards once more to dive into the yellow zone between $1176 and $1088. There, it should finish wave v in green as well as wave (b) in blue before taking off in the direction of $1577. However, there is a high 48% chance of the metal being an early bird. In that case, Palladium would have already concluded wave Alt.v in green and would thus directly start the ascent, skipping the yellow zone.
Can Palladium Futures Break the Downtrend? Palladium futures are up against a downtrend line and the 21-dma. A decisive move out above $1300 on a weekly close should open the door to a test of $1360 at minimum.
Palladium - long set up Palladium at potential support with COT data at extreme levels. Looking for long opportunities.
Palladium short should reach new low soonlooking for prices below 1350 after some nice inside bars short setups
The one and only commodity I am selling in May 2023!We’re looking at the weekly chart.
We can see palladium’s price has fallen since 2021 from $3,000 down to today at $1,424.
Then in 2022, palladium shot up to above $3,400, this has formed what’s known as a Descending Triangle.
This is where the price makes lower highs and bounces on the same floor level.
Now that the price has broken below the triangle, this tells me the sellers are winning and will continue to dominate the market.
This will bring down the price further. I expect the palladium’s price to drop to the 200MA (black line) and then further down to $880.
If this happens, this downside for the precious metal will ONLY be the beginning.
Considering all these factors, we need to brace for palladium’s next crash and at least try and profit from the fall.
FUNDAMENTALS:
Why Palladium’s demand is dropping
Experts from Norilsk Nickel, a major mining company, predict there could be only a small shortfall of 100,000 ounces.
This is less than what they thought in February when they expected a shortfall of 300,000 ounces.
This is mainly because the car industry is not recovering as quickly as they thought, so demand has not increased as expected.
Chip supply and the war in Ukraine have further slowed the car industries recovery.
And South African palladium producers have also contributed to this slowing as they have lowered their production goals and reduced their refining activities, largely due to loadshedding.
And this isn’t good for palladium and its price.
But as always I look to the charts for the overarching signal and this is what it’s telling me.
Palladium and Natural Gas seams to continue trading lowerpretty short opening breakouts on natural gas and palladium.
lets always short the weakest markets ...
there are also plenty of other markets that triggered short signals including nasdaq, gold and euro
but be aware those are high risk setups, markets go down and then jump right up again, better stick with the trending markets and exit prior to big news releases...
Bobby's Homework Assignment PA1!5.23.23 This video is about Palladium... but it's a great video because it gives me a chance to show you some patterns that a lot of Traders will look for, but sometimes I neglect Talking about these patterns even though they affect my trade decisions. Another reason why you might want to look at this video is because your perception of the market can filter out helpful information that is easy to recognize... but only on specific time frames.... and this can be Remedied in a very easy and simple way.... it's not difficult and it only takes a simple glance... Seconds. Once again I apologize for A slip of the tongue....I called arrange box as a $400 range when it was really closer to $4,000..... and there are some other minor misstatements but I'll clarify those probably on the next video that won't have anything to do with Palladium.
OIL5.22.23 I think there might be a long trade tonight on oil.... and I think there is a 1600 to $3,000 target potential... with a small stop. Even if the oil trade loses money, I think it's much easier to trade the oil setup than it is the Palladium set up..... I hope some of the people following me try to use some of these tools....And paper trade..... and get A feel of what a better trade looks like compared to one that's not so good... but is still tradable. without a doubt the most difficult part of trading from my point of view Is picking the best trade location.
PA1!5.21.23 This video Is about a palladian trade tonight... Hypothetical. I drive the lines ...Including A grid. I show how the market traded and where there could have been some good trades leading up to this one. With this particular trade as it turns out... both buyers and sellers are essentially if you ticks away from having to trade... but I decided on the short trade even though this trade is a little bit above its open on today's price.... because I thought there was a slight edge for sellers. Generally, I would prefer a little more certainty.... and I fudged a little bit on the stop Because I'm not willing to take a $2,000 stop on a short trade here. However, from A learning point of view... we got to look at gaps, ABCD patterns,135 patterns and how very shallow retracements can portend very large moves.
Palladium Long#Palladium has been going down for a while, and there are investment strategies called "CTA trend followers" that have been betting on the price going down even more. However, recently the price has started to go up and has crossed certain levels such as the 20/50 day moving avg crossover that might trigger these CTA trend followers to start buying instead of selling.
PA1!4.20.23 In this video I am showing the setup for Palladium and how I use the tools for a future trade.
PALLADIUM LONG IDEA (SHORT - MID TERM)My previous palladium long idea only hit 4th TP 1655
Idea: Long around 1300 - 1360 range (RR Ratio 5+)
Reason: Rebounded off key support 1350, 1h 2h 4h daily candle shows potential signs of retracement
Additional indicators used to support the case: Downward channel breakout potential , Awesome Oscillator in 1h 2h 4h signals an upcoming correction
TP: Based on key resistance/ support level
SL: Below next resistance/ support level 1250
Key targets (Short-mid term): 1400, 1440, 1470, 1510, 1540, 1575, 1615, 1635, 1655, 1675, 1690, 1710, 1725, 1750, 1770, 1790, 1815, 1830, 1850, 1865
PA1!3.26.23 I had technical problems Uploading Videos yesterday..... this is Sunday and I managed to do one more video here to give you a perspective on how I might look at the market and judge Market behavior to find trade location. I should not have Determined that the market was going higher on the Thursday video. I show you why that is on today's video. My message is that even if you get into trouble or make some mistakes... whether they're due to the market or to you.... the tools can help you get out of trouble... and even find you a better trade location.... or tell you when you should be a seller when you started out being a buyer.... in the analysis should include A good entry with a small stop.... and a reasonable target. It turns out that the best trade would have been the long trade near the end of the trading day once the market traded down to where it had gapped higher days earlier. This was a tough video for me.... so the best I can do is just read it whether it's looking at gaps or extensions or ABCD patterns or Retracement patterns.... it's hard to come up with a way of trading without actually reading and interpreting how the Market's moving in real time. I think it takes Perseverance and caution. I pretty much feel that if I lose money in the market... it's because I miscalculated something..... it's not my tools . I don't even blame the buyers or sellers on the other side of my trade.... loss Below my stop Is almost always my mistake. If I'm getting a run of 1/1 trades....I'm doing something wrong, I'm out of sync. Or it's something That is off on my end. Wait for the good trades.
PA1! part 13.25.23 I titled this Palladium because I made a mistake That would have resulted in a $1,600 loss. It's a little bit more complicated than that and also, it was not necessary. I thought I could do this in one video. It turns out that it will take two videos so this will be part one of Palladium.... and I took a look at oil and gold for some visual references.
PA1!3.23.23 Palladium can be a very volatile market and this is what makes it very appealing... if you can afford it and you're comfortable with your trading. The details are in the video.... and I show A few opportunities to compare this market when it's ranging... which is A little different from what's going on now when we have a fairly solid support resistance line and possibly An inverse head and shoulders pattern.
PALLADIUM H&SPalladium H&S
Head and shoulder reversal pattern formed when the RSI was in divergence.
Neck line already broken and the line was retested by sellers and are in action.
Lower highs and lower lows have been formed as well and downtrend visible
Short on strength or immediately at 1415
SL:1446 last lower high
TP: 1350 the length of head to neck
Palladium ready for some upside?Palladium - Intraday - We look to Buy at 1474.1 (stop at 1450.1)
Short term bias has turned positive.
Previous resistance at 1475 now becomes support.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
We look to buy dips.
We look for gains to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 1534.1 and 1544.1
Resistance: 1515 / 1527 / 1540
Support: 1490 / 1475 / 1450
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