XPDUSD1! trade ideas
Quickpost: Palladium Futures looks hella bearishI am constantly looking for trend lines to flip from resistance to support and we are finally seeing that right now. The rising blue trend line frustratingly set a higher high with the blue trendline acting as resistance for three retests.
The purple trendline is beginning to assert itself as resistance;
due to the hidden bearish divergence on the MACD histogram I don't suspect we will see as many tests of the purple trendline as we see of the blue;
Also, the MACD looks primed to cross the signal bearishly.
Further that:
Volumewise we can see that there is almost no volume to this rally. The three day chart simplifies some of the variation in the volume and gives a clear picture of the OBV EMAS.
The low daily volume suggest a big move is coming,
the OBV EMAs are about to have a bearish cross with of the 10 and 20 EMAs.
The Volume Profile, Visible Range, shows that the Value Area was supporting the price action and now is acting as resistance.
The next move according to basic VPVR strategies is a move to the point of control, one of the High Volume Nodes, or the lower limit of the value area.
in general this is important because during the Great Recession palladium pumped and dumped as a leading indicator of a broader financial problem. In the past the S&P has dumped as Palladium exhausts a few weeks later, but here they appear to be getting gassed at the same time (SPX is tracking highs)
Silver, Gold and now Palladium !Hey guys, your favorite bear is today interest buy the case of palladium !
Palladium shows signals of accelerated parabolic phase which tends to confirm a bubble market.
Let's recap the state of the precious metals market :
- Silver is in crash phase.
- Gold in an advanced bearish consolidation.
- Palladium in a bubble market.
Technicals indicators :
Price is well overextends over 200, 55, 21 and even over 7 monthly EMA : this is a strong signal of bubble.
RSI shows overbought conditions on monthly chart and bearish divergences on weekly and daily.
TD Sequential gives us a perfect daily 9 candlestick which implies a potential correction.
DISCLAIMER : I'm not financial advisor. I'm doing it for my own entertainment. You are responsable for your losses because you trade at your own risk.
PLEASE KEEP SHOWING ME YOUR SUPPORT : LIKES and follows are very HELPFUL.
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Cheers !
Elliott Wave View: Palladium 7 swing Correction In ProgressShort term view suggests the rally in Palladium to 2814.25 ended wave (3). The wave (4) decline in Palladium is currently in progress to correct cycle from May 13, 2019 low before the rally resumes. Internal of wave (4) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from Feb 28, 2020 high (2814.25) , wave ((a)) ended at 2610.1 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 2740. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 2387.30 which completed wave W of the double three.
Afterwards, the metal ended the rally in wave X at 2576.9. It has resumed lower and broken below wave W at 2387.3 suggesting the next leg lower has started. Down from wave X high at 2576.9, wave (a) ended at 2391 and wave (b) bounce ended at 2465.10. Expect Palladium to extend lower towards 2248 – 2311 area to end wave ((w)), then it should bounce in wave ((x)) to correct cycle from March 2 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.
The potential target for wave Y of (4) can be measured as 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of W-X which comes at 2045 – 2146. This area, if reached, can see buyers for further upside or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t like selling the proposed decline due to the bullish trend in the higher degree.
Palladium futures market in strong uptrendIn the Palladium commodities market, on the Daily chart, the price is in a strong uptrend. Relative Strength Index indicator pushed lower and closed below the sixty line. This indicates that a slight retracement is due, and I expect the price to come back to a heavy volume area. I dropped down to the 30-minute chart to tighten my entry in hopes that I will receive a better risk-to-reward ratio.
Palladium bearish prediction on daily retracementAfter Palladium has had a recent correction it retracted to 0.786 fib, in fact it ran some further and triggered some stops in typical fashion. Right now it is below
that line. Notice the large top wick of 62 points (worth $6200 for one contract) . This is an indication that bears are still in control for now. Shorting here will give you a nice risk reward ratio.
Disclosure : I am 2 contracts short as of today