BIST30 (USD) Monthly: Head & Shoulders Confirmed? Neckline RetesType: Bearish
The Turkish Stock Market (BIST30 or XU030), when viewed in US Dollar terms on the monthly chart, presents a textbook Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern.
We can observe the Left Shoulder, a higher Head, and a lower Right Shoulder, indicating waning bullish momentum at the peak of what has been a significant rally.
The fact that this pattern is forming on the monthly timeframe underscores its long-term significance, suggesting a major structural shift rather than just a short-term correction.
The Neckline Break & Retest:
Crucially, the BIST30 (USD) has recently broken below its multi-month neckline, a key support level that connected the lows between the shoulders and the head. This breakdown served as the initial confirmation of the H&S pattern.
What we are witnessing now is the classic retest of this broken neckline. Price has rallied back towards this former support, which now acts as strong overhead resistance.
This retest often provides a 'last kiss goodbye' before the larger bearish move unfolds.
The market's reaction at this retest level will be paramount. A strong rejection from the neckline, potentially accompanied by increasing bearish volume or bearish candlestick formations on lower timeframes (e.g., weekly), would further validate the H&S breakdown and strengthen the bearish outlook.
Potential Price Target:
Based on the classic H&S methodology, we can project a potential price target. By measuring the vertical distance from the peak of the 'Head' to the neckline and projecting it downwards from the breakdown point, we derive a preliminary bearish target around 220 USD for BIST30 (XU030)
XU030 trade ideas
BIST30 (XU030) - 1 DThe corrective move in the BIST30 index, which began in July 2024, has completed the first two legs of a three-wave structure and is currently unfolding the final downward leg. While the overall pattern appears to be a classic flat (regular) correction, the possibility of it evolving into a WXY complex correction—albeit less likely—still remains valid. I anticipate that this correction will conclude with one final leg to the downside. Both time-based and price-based target levels have been marked. In my assessment, the likelihood of the correction ending within the initially identified support zone is higher than the probability of a deeper retracement.
Maybe it is a good time to pair trade THYAO against LufthansaIt is not maybe. It is a good idea to sell THYAO's future contract short and buy Lufthansa stock.
Trading the THYAO on futures is also a good idea at a time when rates need to go lower. This way, traders can sell the THYAO short and lend the TRY at a higher rate.
Yukarı kırdı yükseliyor.Tam alma vakti.Şimdi al. Tam alma vakti.Şimdi al. Tam alma vakti.Şimdi al Super economy is coming.
1. Inflation started to fall.
2. Oil prices began to fall very quickly.
3.Metals are falling.
4. The stock market will continue to break new records.
Halil ÖLMEZ
Dec 21
Comment: Happy New Year. I want to see you all happy and peaceful. I love you all.
XU030 longthis is my weekly analysis of XU030. We might be a part of the 5th blue way. after correction of blue way, brown way (big picture) 5th way may start. This might be the last upward move of this year. Then I expect sharp declines in the market. Anyway, enjoy watching this movie at the moment