XU100 trade ideas
BIST long positionMACD gave buy signal; price above the ichimocku cloud; things looking fine; i will wait for the price to go to upper resistance.
BIST long term RSI and price targetRSI rebounded from oversold position. We should see a channel move with price and RSI value targets in the long term as shown.
BIST possible scenario cast
As previously stated two analysis . First on 22 April
. The spill has been effective to 88,200 Level
And also after the spill , as we have stated with the run away gaps t the downside.
The second analysis of 12 JULY
Turkish manipulators, if necessary conditions are not strongly distrubed, have the tendency to close those gaps.
So expect to close 98,800 gap. Then a trial of 100.000
There will be a profit realization from 100.000 but ,most possibly these realizations will be short lived and the prices would head up. For a possible scenario of : creation of a huge head and shoulders formation.
The hypothesis to assume that prices will break 100.00 and go on depends mainly on the positive divergence of RSI and Momentum on daily and weekly basis.
which brings out the possibility of making of a huge H&S formation.
If this scenario holds, expect to see the right shoulder close to 110.000 levels.
As the analsysis is bullish , fundamentally BIST is weak so I am not issuing a long position here.
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Notice the runaway gaps to the downside.Notice the huge pressure to the downside and the general pattern is still very very bearish with a possible target of 75.000 ( the mean of the previous squueze channel)
Although Turkish Manipulators like to close all possible gaps when/if there is suitable environment, this gaps mean that there will be a huge pressure on the market to the mean 75.000.
It also coincedes with the Turkish Lira depreciation story.
Turkey has two major problems at the same time, lack of Savings and Lack of Foreign Exchange. The latter problem can not be solved via Turkish Lira nominated/settled swap auctions. There is a need for actual USD. Full Stop!
If market volatility calms down and manipulators try to close these gaps, that will be a great opportunity to sell long assets.
