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XU100 trade ideas

What happened to the Turkish market?The attention of many stockbrokers is now focused on the Turkish stock market. And not only because of the second round of presidential elections scheduled for May 28. The main reason lies in another - this market has shown tremendous profitability on the horizon of the last 3 years. In the period 2020-2022, the main Turkish index Borsa Istanbul 100 (BIST 100) increased by 480%. Just think about these numbers! The index was accelerated in November 2021, after which the market grew until December 2022. And only since the beginning of this year, the BIST 100 index has gone into correction, which at the moment has not even amounted to 38.2% to the wave of growth that started in November 2021. What happened to the Turkish market and what was the starting point for its increase? Many experts are inclined to believe that the roots of this insane growth originate from the currency crisis of 2021. The Central Bank of Turkey began easing monetary policy and undertook to reduce the key rate from 19% in August 2021, despite the fact that then inflation in the country already exceeded 21%. By the end of 2021, the rate dropped to 14%, and inflation accelerated to 36%. Since the beginning of 2022, the rate has remained unchanged at 14%. And after the start of the special operation, inflation in the country rose to 70%. The country became a buffer zone between Russia and the West, and with the beginning of mobilization in Russia (autumn 2022), many Russians moved to live in this country, which provoked a big jump in real estate prices and its rent. In 2022, rental prices in Turkey increased by 160.6%, which is why the country ranked first among 56 countries in this indicator. I'm not surprised that for local residents, the events of recent years have become a trigger, pushing them to search for the safety of funds from inflation and they began to invest in local stocks as protection against high inflation. Along with this, it is worth noting that foreign investors avoid the Turkish market because of the country's monetary policy. In 2022, they sold $2.2 billion worth of shares, as a result, the share of foreign investors in Turkish shares reached a record low of 35%. The current correction of the Turkish market is now also related to the uncertainty around the elections. According to Fitch, political and economic uncertainty will remain at least until the end of the second round of elections. On the one hand, if the current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan continues to lead the country, it is unlikely that economic policy will be subject to changes. Under his management, Turkey has become virtually inaccessible for investment from the point of view of Western fund managers. But, on the other hand, the preservation of the former government can give some confidence in the future to its citizens. By the way, the former alliance with Erdogan is economically beneficial for Russia and it will support him. In the foreign policy arena, the issue of another extension of the "grain deal" may be raised, and on the domestic agenda, Turkey will receive its preferences as the largest gas hub within the framework of parallel imports. In the first round of the presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan scored 49.40%. In my opinion, Erdogan is highly likely to remain in power and get a majority in the second round. It is quite possible that the results of the presidential elections will become a catalyst for a new growth of the Turkish stock market. From a technical point of view, a triangle trend continuation pattern is formed on the weekly chart of the BIST 100 index. If the index drops to 4200-4220 points, then growth will begin from the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, and a "flag" model is also possible. But if the index drops to 3730-3750 points, then growth will begin from 50% of the Fibonacci level near the important support level of the growing trend from the end of 2021. In both cases, I will expect the subsequent growth of the market at least to the height of the model - up to 6500-6550 points. In the first round of the presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan scored 49.40% . In my opinion, Erdogan is highly likely to remain in power and get a majority in the second round. It is quite possible that the results of the presidential elections will become a catalyst for a new growth of the Turkish stock market. From a technical point of view, a triangle trend continuation pattern is formed on the weekly chart of the BIST 100 index. If the index to 4200 points, the lower limit of the model will be almost horizontal, but if the index drops to 3860-3900 points, then conversion to the "flag" model is possible. In both cases, I will expect the subsequent growth of the market at least to the height of the model - up to 6500-6550 points. An important support level for the index remains the growing trend from the end of 2021 - the level of 3760-3800 points. The same view is shared by managers from Strateji Portfolio and Marmara Capital. They believe that the rally in the Turkish market can continue further, as local securities are still trading with an attractive price-to-earnings ratio. At the same time, Turkey's sovereign credit rating remains at the "B" level.
BIST:XU100Long
by scavoanastasiia
1
Fibonacci on BISTI have detected that BIST price has been moving according to the fibonacci retracement for several months. Let me explain the whole strategy of the fibonacci retracement and how the price adapts, in order. BIST index is in a continuous downtrend from 9 March to 3 April. At the end of this downtrend (4712), I drew the Fibonacci retracement, which I received confirmation of return, and I saw that the 0.618 level was 5185 TL. Therefore, a purchase I will make at the bottom and then a sale at 0.618 brought me a profit of 10%. When the price hit the 0.618 level, I got confirmation of a reversal and removed the old fibonacci and drew a fibonacci from the low on April 3 to the high on April 13. (I wouldn't have done this if I hadn't received the return confirmation.) The 1.618 level (4393) of the fibonacci I just drew became my new target. A short I opened at 5187 brought me a profit of even over 15% when I reached 1.618. Then I saw a double bottom formation at this level and it was a confirmation of a return for me. Therefore, I drew a fibonacci from the high price on April 13 to the low price on May 5. The 0.618 level (4860) of this fibonacci is also the target for me. When I reach the target, I think I will make a profit of around 10%. As I see the possibility of a return from the 4860 level, I drew a (not certain) fibonacci price of 0.618 from the bottom price on May 5th. This gives me the next bottom price of 4119 TL, ie 1.618 fibonacci level. The Fibonacci strategy is generally like this. As you can see, the strategy should be used in conjunction with reversal or breakout confirmations. These confirmations can be taken with candles or formations.
BIST:XU100
by YavuzAkbay
BIST100 XU100 ForecastBased on the information provided, the price has been range-bound for the last 80 days. Additionally, the last range lasted for 120 days before breaking out. This suggests that the current range may continue for some time, and traders should exercise caution when considering trading opportunities. The technical analysis includes two scenarios: a bullish scenario represented by the blue line and a bearish scenario represented by the red line. Traders should wait for clear reactions from the zones indicated in these scenarios before initiating any trades. In the bullish scenario, the price would need to break above the upper range boundary and hold above it for an extended period before traders can confidently enter long positions. This could indicate that buyers have gained control of the market, and the price may continue to rise. On the other hand, in the bearish scenario, the price would need to break below the lower range boundary and hold below it for an extended period before traders can initiate short positions. This could indicate that sellers have gained control of the market, and the price may continue to decline. Overall, traders should exercise caution when trading in a range-bound market and wait for clear indications of a breakout before initiating any positions. It is essential to monitor the price action closely and adjust trading strategies accordingly to stay ahead of the market.
BIST:XU100
by TradeConfirmed
1
PSYCHOLOGY OF A MARKET CYCLE : BIST XU100 2020-2023After a bull-market cycle, fueled by Turkiye Central Bank liquidity and Turkiye Wealth Fund assets, politicians and media were touting the continuation of the bull market indefinitely into the future. It is understandable why mainstream analysis believed the markets could only go higher as there are many signs suggesting the current Wyckoff cycle has entered into its third stage - the distribution phase gained traction. But Turkiye is experiencing an natural disaster that affects people psychologically and emotionally, leading them to think differently, act differently, and alter the way they make decisions—including economic decisions. In that sense, the psychological impacts of earthquakes may continue to have profound economic impacts long after reconstruction is finished. The Wyckoff cycle has entered into its fourth, and final stage. Whether, or not, the current distribution phase is complete, is the question we are all working on answering now. There is a sizable contingent of turkish investors, today who have never been through a real bear market having three stages: 1. Start with a sharp and swift decline. 2. After this decline, there is an oversold bounce that retraces a portion of that decline. 3. The longer-term decline then continues, at a slower and more grinding pace, as the fundamentals deteriorate. While there is a less of “hope” the Turkish Central Bank’s flood of liquidity can arrest the market decline, there is still a tremendous amount of economic damage to contend with over the months to come. In the end, it does not matter if you are “bullish” or “bearish.” What matters, in terms of achieving long-term investment success, is not necessarily being “right” during the first half of the cycle, but by not being “wrong” during the second half.
BIST:XU100Short
by Saunak