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Bitcoin Cycle Top Analysis: A Historical PerspectiveHello, everyone! In this analysis, we delve into the historical relationships between Bitcoin’s market cycles, focusing on the journey from cycle bottoms to cycle tops. The chart provides a clear visual representation of previous cycles, highlighting key patterns and timeframes that may offer insights into Bitcoin’s current and future trajectory. For additional details and deeper context, please refer to the notes section of this post. Your feedback and insights are always welcome do let us know what you think about this perspective!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by weslad
5
Let’s be realistic...Hello, dear friends! 🫶What to Expect After the Correction?🧐 Let’s be realistic —at this point, it’s nearly impossible to predict with 100% certainty where Bitcoin will go after the correction.🤷🏽‍♀️ I know many of us are hoping for a new bull run (myself included), but unrealistic expectations can be far worse than sober analysis . That’s why I suggest we consider a few possible scenarios to protect ourselves and prepare for any outcome. Here’s the plan I’ve laid out for You today: Daily Chart Analysis The current Bitcoin price action appears to be in a distribution phase. If this phase plays out fully, we could see the price drop to around $85,000. What happens next? After reaching this level, the price is likely to bounce upward. This could be an opportunity for cautious long trades. Scenario 1: Bullish The $100,000–$102,000 zone will be a critical threshold. If the price confidently breaks above this level, it will signal bullish sentiment in the market, paving the way for further growth. The next major resistance level to watch is $108,500. This is a key level that must be overcome for the bull run to continue. However, be cautious of fake breakouts—they happen frequently and can trap traders. If we break through these levels and the rally continues, then… to the moon! 🚀 Scenario 2: Bearish We can’t ignore the bearish scenario—being informed is being prepared. After the correction (potentially to $85,000), we might see the price bounce back to the $100,000–$102,000 zone. In my view, this level will be critical. If the price fails to hold above this zone and heads into a deeper correction, it will signal bearish sentiment and dominance of the bears in the market. Personal Observations In times of uncertainty, emotions run high. Everyone expects growth, and when someone draws downward arrows on the chart, it often sparks aggression. Let’s try to be kinder and more tolerant toward each other—it’s just the market, after all. What’s Your Take?What scenario do You see playing out? Do You have your own charts to share? Drop them in the comments—I’d love to see Your perspectives! Always Yours, Kateryna 💛
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RocketBomb
5
Identify Memecoin scams complete guide🔸Learn to identify memecoin scams effectively by recognizing red flags, using essential tools, and understanding various scams like airdrop scams, honeypots, and MeV attacks. The video offers insights from an experienced trader and provides access to a master list of meme coin trading tools for safer trading practices. 🔸Crypto scams are rampant, especially targeting traders unfamiliar with red flags. Knowing these scams can save you from losing your hard-earned money in the meme coin market. 🔸Airdrop scams are common, where scammers send fake tokens to wallets. Interacting with these tokens can lead to a complete drain of your wallet. 🔸Avoiding certain wallets for meme coin trading is crucial. Fantom, while popular, may expose traders to more risks compared to faster and more secure alternatives. 🔸Identifying scams in the cryptocurrency market requires vigilance on token activity and chart patterns. Recognizing indicators such as rug pulls and honeypots can protect investors from losses. 🔸Rug pulls often manifest through sudden price spikes with no selling activity, indicating potential manipulation by developers. This pattern serves as a red flag for investors. 🔸Honeypots are tokens that allow buying but prevent selling, trapping investors. Understanding this concept is crucial for avoiding scams. 🔸Verifying the legitimacy of a token involves checking for duplicate tokens and ensuring liquidity is locked. These steps help ascertain the safety of investments. 🔸Analyzing social media presence is crucial for determining a developer's reliability. Active communication and transparency on platforms like Twitter can indicate a legitimate project. 🔸Using bots to check the history of Twitter accounts can expose recycled profiles often associated with scams. This method enhances the security of investment choices in crypto. 🔸Community takeovers often occur after a developer rugs, allowing the community to reclaim control and potentially revitalize the project. This can lead to a more decentralized management. 🔸Verifying the authenticity of a project's website is crucial. Scammers may create fake sites, so utilizing domain age checkers helps to ensure the legitimacy of the information. 🔸Understanding the dynamics of token holders is crucial in the crypto market. Analyzing the behavior of bundle snipers can reveal potential risks associated with token investments. 🔸Analyzing token holders and their activities can help identify potential red flags. Tools like trench radar scanner assist in monitoring bundle activities and assessing risks. 🔸Visualizing bundle data can enhance decision-making in token investments. Understanding the distribution of holdings among wallets helps assess the stability of a token.
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
25
Lucky vs. Repeatability: A Key Insight for Smarter TradingTrading is a journey, one filled with highs, lows, and a constant drive to improve. Recently, I came across an idea on Podcast that truly resonated with me: the concept of luck versus repeatability. This distinction is critical—it’s the difference between chasing short-term gains that may never happen again and developing a strategy that can deliver consistent results over time. Let me explain. The Role of Luck: Lessons from the 2017 ICO Boom Think back to 2017, the golden age of initial coin offerings (ICOs). When a new crypto token launched, there was a rush to buy it, often driving the price up by 10x, 50x, or even 100x in a matter of days. For many, this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to turn small investments into life-changing wealth. But what happened next? That strategy no longer works today. The sheer number of tokens being created—thousands daily—means money is now spread too thin for any single token to experience those explosive gains. What worked in 2017 relied on luck, not on a repeatable edge in the market. Luck is a fascinating aspect of trading. It can make you rich once, but without the skills to preserve and grow that wealth, it often fades away as quickly as it appeared. Repeatability: Why Market Cycles Matter Now let’s contrast this with something far more enduring: market cycles. Markets have always oscillated between fear and greed. During times of greed, prices often surge beyond their intrinsic value. Conversely, fear can drive prices below their true value. These cycles aren’t random—they’re rooted in human psychology and have been evident for decades. For example, during bull markets, optimism often pushes valuations to unsustainable levels. Then, a sudden shock—be it economic, political, or otherwise—triggers a wave of fear, and the cycle reverses. This ebb and flow have happened in the past, and will likely continue into the future. This is what makes market cycles repeatable. Unlike luck, which depends on being in the right place at the right time, repeatability allows you to build a foundation for sustainable success. Compounding: The Key to Long-Term Growth Once you adopt a repeatable trading strategy, you unlock the power of compounding. Even with a modest starting capital, consistent returns can lead to significant growth over time. The beauty of compounding lies in its exponential nature—small gains, when reinvested, can snowball into substantial wealth. This doesn’t happen overnight, but that’s the point. Repeatable strategies thrive on patience and discipline, allowing you to grow your account steadily and responsibly. A Common Mistake in Pullback Trading Let’s take a practical example: pullback trading. Many traders focus on waiting for the price to re-test a key level, like previous resistance that could turn into support. While this approach makes sense in theory, the market doesn’t always play by the rules. Prices often fail to re-test those levels, continuing their move without offering the ideal entry point. The solution? Plan for multiple scenarios. Understand that pullbacks can vary in depth and structure, and be prepared to adapt. Flexibility is key when applying any repeatable strategy. A Thought to Keep in Mind One of the most liberating truths about trading is this: the market doesn’t care about you. It doesn’t know your goals, your dreams, or your trades. Losses aren’t personal—they’re just part of the game. The real question is how you respond to them. Each loss is an opportunity to reflect, learn, and refine your approach. Over time, this process turns a good strategy into a great one. Final Thoughts As traders, we’re constantly faced with choices. Should we chase the next big thing, hoping for a stroke of luck? Or should we focus on developing strategies grounded in repeatable principles? For me, the answer is clear. While luck may occasionally play a role, it’s the repeatable strategies—those built on solid foundations—that lead to lasting success. The next time you evaluate a trading approach, ask yourself: Is this lucky, or is it repeatable? The answer might just reshape the way you trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
6
Harmonic Fibonacci Map (Risk Management) From the visual appearance of this harmonic pattern, it most closely resembles a Gartley pattern due to the following key characteristics: 1. **AB Retracement of XA:** - In a Gartley pattern, the AB leg usually retraces about 61.8% of the XA leg. My AB leg seems to align with this. 2. **BC Extension:** - The BC leg in a Gartley often extends between 38.2% and 88.6% of AB. My chart appears to fit this range. 3. **CD Projection:** - The CD leg typically ends around 78.6% of the XA retracement in a Gartley. Based on the harmonic completion zone, this seems plausible. Why not a Bat or Crab? - **Bat Pattern:** The Bat requires a deeper retracement of the XA leg (88.6%) for Point D, which my pattern does not seem to meet. - **Crab Pattern:** The Crab involves an extended CD leg, usually reaching 161.8% of XA or beyond. My CD leg looks more moderate, aligning better with the Gartley. This is the drop so far, and its outcome depends on how high Bitcoin moves next. Minor corrections could improve the price, and don’t overlook the significance of BTC.D. This idea shouldn’t be ignored. It’s tailored for short-term traders—take it as an opportunity, not for granted. Use it to compare with your own analysis; you might uncover insights aligned with what I’ve already warned is likely to happen. Any professional trader understands that Bitcoin is due for a correction after such an unnatural spike and I'm not a professional trader, it's what I've learned and applied to myself. Currently, retail traders are caught up in the hype. We need to wait for this hype-driven bait to subside. In the meantime, we'll observe how altcoins respond.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
5
"Roll the Clip: The Sentiment Trap" Let’s make this clear: this idea does not target a short position. While the exact timing of the next fall remains unconfirmed, I’ve outlined a potential movement starting from the yellow arrow at the $108K zone, extending downward to the gap area. The price could settle anywhere between $73,653 and $88,965, leaving the end result uncertain. This chart is based on a 2-week timeframe. I will later create ideas on shorter timeframes to provide a more detailed breakdown of price movements. My auto trendlines will populate with plots that map out the trajectory of the price. As of now, this idea is about 25% complete, and the full story will unfold across subsequent ideas. Sharing everything here would only clutter the analysis. Key Observations from This Idea: The Triangles (Space Patterns): The first white triangle represents the "space" formed during the broadcasting of the second wave. The second white triangle reveals a similar space being formed, indicating that at some point, the price may need to revisit and fill this area space, just as it did with the first space. The gap reads like a magnet. Custom Wicks and Trendlines: My custom wicks display a clear relationship with the trendlines. While traditional wicks may suggest room for further uptrend, my analysis shows that the cycle from the previous All-Time High (ATH) has completed. ADX and +DI Movement: Pay attention to the ADX and +DI. When both move in the same direction, it signifies bullish momentum. This suggests that despite any bearish sentiment during price declines, Bitcoin is likely gearing up for another wave surpassing the $108K mark. The green arrow pinpoints where the $108K target was filled. From the bottom of the lime rectangle to its end, +DI began its journey to a new ATH. During this phase, ADX initially did not align with +DI, creating a bearish outlook in technical analysis. This misalignment triggered global fears of a Bitcoin crash, which played right into the hands of smart money. Prices were subsequently driven upward. Crucial Insights: As ADX and +DI now align in the same bullish direction, we must remain cautious. While this alignment reflects the reality of technical analysis (TA) and suggests Bitcoin's upward trajectory, it’s crucial to recognize the psychological play at hand. Smart money understands that traders will become increasingly bullish due to this signal, which could lead to dangerous overconfidence. When the herd leans too heavily on bullish sentiment, smart money often "rolls the clip" in the opposite direction—toward bearish moves. Why the ADX and +DI Alignment Matters: This alignment occurred because Bitcoin was already in motion, and this momentum couldn’t be artificially manipulated—it’s simply how the technicals unfolded. However, this doesn’t mean we should disregard the possibility of a strategic reversal driven by market psychology. Next Steps: I will shift my focus to shorter timeframes in my next idea to provide a clearer view of price movements. These shorter timeframes will help refine the analysis and illustrate the potential trajectory with greater precision. Stay tuned as I continue to unravel the full picture in the upcoming ideas. Each piece will add depth to the narrative and enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
6
"Climbing the Grid: BTC Edition" In this chart, the trendlines are drawn to represent key areas of support and resistance based on price action over time. Here’s how to explain them in simple terms: 1. **Green Trendlines (Support)**: - These lines are drawn underneath the candlesticks. They show areas where the price found support and moved higher after touching or approaching the line. - The lower green horizontal line at **89,061.47** represents a strong historical support level, meaning the price previously stopped falling and reversed upward from this area. 2. **Red Trendlines (Resistance)**: - These lines are drawn above the candlesticks. They represent levels where the price struggled to go higher and reversed downward. - The upward-sloping red trendline represents a resistance trend where the price is being pushed lower whenever it approaches the line. 3. **Blue Trendline (Broader Trend)**: - This trendline connects major swing lows over a longer timeframe, showing the general upward momentum of the market. - It's more of a macro-level line, indicating the long-term bullish direction. 4. **White Trendlines (Neutral or Structural)**: - These lines form part of the structure, connecting minor pivot points or angles within the trend. - They give additional context but may not hold as strong as the green and red lines. 5. **Breakout Point (Highlighted with an Arrow)**: - The red arrow points to an area where the price attempted to break through a resistance level and succeeded, confirming a breakout. - After breaking past, the price is now approaching **105,346.97**, which could act as a new resistance or continuation level. In essence: - **Support lines**: Where the price bounces up. - **Resistance lines**: Where the price gets rejected. - The interactions between these lines help predict where the price might go next. - Bull Flag scenario is likely to unfold
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by The_ForexX_Mindset
8
BTCUSD STRONG BULLISHThe BTCUSD buy trade entry level is set at 96,300, where you should initiate the position 📈. The target level for this trade is 107,500, aiming for a significant upward price movement 🚀. The stop loss is placed at 94,300 to protect against potential losses if the market moves against the position ⚠️. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio based on the expected price increase 💹. Always ensure to adjust the position size according to your risk management strategy while monitoring the market conditions 📊. Trading Analysis: The BTCUSD trade aligns with a bullish market outlook, targeting a strong price move. #Follow #Like #Comment
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ExpertTrader041
6
BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Will We Test ATH Soon? Following a strong upward trend in Bitcoin this week, the price reached the resistance line of a rising parallel channel and began to retrace. I see a classic support cluster forming within a horizontal range and the support line of the channel on a 4-hour timeframe. Currently, the market is testing this zone. I predict that there will be a bullish rebound leading to further upward movement, possibly reaching 106,000 and potentially even testing the all-time high. Conversely, if the price managed to break and close below the confluence zone, that would be a strong bearish signal.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by linofx1
4
BTCUSD IN LONG LETS SELL 🚨 BTCUSDT Forecast & Level Analysis 🚨 Bitcoin (BTC) has been showing some strong bullish momentum recently, and this trend appears to be continuing. Here's an in-depth look at the current market situation: 🔹 Recent Price Action: Bitcoin has successfully broken through its key resistance zone, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend. The bulls have shown strength as BTC has crossed above the 50-day and 200-day Moving Averages (MA), which is a strong indicator of long-term bullish momentum. This is a positive signal for the market, as it suggests that the buyers are in control. 🔹 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: Bitcoin’s next major target is in the range of $97K. If the price breaks and holds above this level, it will likely open the door for further upside movement. This zone is crucial as it marks a key level for potential profit-taking or re-entry for traders. Technical Target: Looking ahead, Bitcoin has a technical target of $108K. This is based on recent price action and market sentiment, and it represents a significant level that could see heavy buying pressure if reached. However, it’s important to remain cautious and wait for confirmation before making any major trading decisions. Support Zone: On the downside, $93K is a key support zone. This is where we expect some buying interest to come in if the price starts to pull back. A dip to this level would offer a potential opportunity to enter long positions for those who missed the previous breakout. If the price falls below $93K, it could signal a deeper correction.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ALBERTGOLDHUNTER
11
BTCUSD-Best zone to look to buy.Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. Bitcoin is showing strong bullish momentum, breaking through key resistance levels and signaling a potential continuation to the upside. However, The price is rejecting the Previous all-time high. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a second leg down that will complete an AB CD complex pullback into the support zone shown in the chart for a more strategic entry. If the pullback holds and buying confirms, the next leg higher could target: First Resistance: Immediate levels formed during prior consolidation. A new all-time high. Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Ameer-Trader
2
Bitcoin Market CycleHello, dear friends!🩷 Much has been said about Bitcoin cycles, and you've seen many charts, including mine! But today, I'll summarize everything that has been said before: briefly and clearly!So... What Defines the Bitcoin Market Cycle? The Bitcoin market cycle signifies the repetitive trend of price movements within the Bitcoin market, marked by alternating phases of appreciation and depreciation. These fluctuations stem from the perceptions and actions of market participants, involving buying and selling, and are influenced by various factors including market sentiment, regulatory shifts, technological advancements, and broader economic conditions. Historically, Bitcoin has adhered to a four-year cycle closely tied to Bitcoin halving events, occurring roughly every four years. A halving event entails a 50% reduction in the Bitcoin reward miners receive for validating transactions; consequently, the rate of Bitcoin supply growth slows down. This often triggers a significant price surge, assuming the demand for Bitcoin either remains constant or increases post-halving. The upcoming halving is slated for April 2024, where the block reward will decrease to 3.125 bitcoins. The chart below illustrates the cyclic nature of Bitcoin's price and its historical patterns. What Constitutes the Phases of the Bitcoin Market Cycle? Phase 1 – Accumulation This phase emerges when prices are low, yet there are early indications of growth. It's a period where buyers accumulate Bitcoin at lower prices, representing a pinnacle of financial opportunity. Typically, bearish sentiment prevails in the market, resulting in low trading volumes and prices fluctuating within a narrow range, often near the bottom. Phase 2 – Continuation (growth) During this phase, the price continues its ascent towards the all-time high. Historically, a halving event occurs here, coinciding with diminishing exchange reserves as buyers stockpile supply in anticipation of surging prices and new record highs. Phase 3 – Parabolic (bubble) As the price surpasses the previous all-time high, it begins to rise exponentially, leading to a new all-time high that significantly exceeds the previous peak. This phase is marked by extreme volatility, with rapid price spikes followed by substantial corrections. Sell volume increases as some investors lock in profits, while others continue buying, believing the bull market has further potential. Consequently, price volatility diminishes as buying and selling volumes begin to balance, amid a backdrop of overconfidence. Many investors may perceive the Fear & Greed Index as signaling Extreme Greed during this phase. Phase 4 – Correction (crash) Following the euphoria of the Parabolic phase, the market undergoes a major downward correction. Previous bear market periods have witnessed approximately 80% drawdowns from the peak, with negative price movements lasting for roughly a year. For instance, the most recent downturn saw Bitcoin's price plummet from an all-time high of $69,000 (November 2021) to $15,476 (November 2022). I hope You found it interesting. If yes, boost this post 🚀 so others can see it too, and subscribe to stay connected. Always sincerely Yours, Kateryna💙💛
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RocketBomb
9
"Dynamic Trendline Theater" "Pivot ray trend lines illuminate the direction of price movement, with the skull marking the exact spot where spoofing was initiated. Bold red horizontal rectangles represent my custom pivot zones, perfectly aligned with my VWAP and custom candlestick patterns. The three red arrows strategically highlight potential points where the price might begin its ascent, carving a pathway upward from the trendline rays like a rocket waiting to be launched. Pay close attention to the trendline rays—they’re not just lines; they’re pathways with purpose. Watch how the price dances in waves, teasing upward progress, only to drop back down, retracing its steps along these pivotal pathways. The story unfolds in waves, and the price will reveal its intentions as it navigates these mapped-out trajectories." I’ve laid a copy over the original chart, so please ignore the dates from the original chart. The prices are nearly aligned, so the focus should remain on the overall analysis rather than specific dates. For Viewing the Chart Copy Clearly (with Dates and Prices, if needed): • On Mobile Devices: Rotate your screen horizontally and use a browser to view the chart. This will allow you to move the copy around for better visibility. • On PC or Laptop: You can manually adjust the overlay by dragging it to explore the chart in greater detail. Chart Compression: The copied chart may appear slightly compressed, but it is closely aligned with the original chart in terms of price structure. Any minor discrepancies in alignment should not affect the overall analysis. This idea is intended to highlight patterns and provide insights, not to pinpoint exact dates or price levels. Use these visuals as part of a broader, flexible strategy rather than fixed predictions or outcomes. "Climbing the Grid BTC Edition"
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by The_ForexX_Mindset
6