Bitcoin, Interest rates & Key fundamental points since 2021
The Growing question is just how much does the American Federal Reserve interest rate changes effect Bitcoin.
We can see how in 2022, it appears they did but from late 2022 and early 2023, it doesn't seem to.
Bitcoin began its rise even while rates were being put up.
The Fundimental Key points may have had more impact but again, there are moments were we can see something that should have been Great for BTC, had little effect and Visa Versa.
Has Bitcon Truly Broken away from being effected by the worlds "largest" economy ?
We are currently seeing the ever growing threat of WW3 and Rates being Kept artificially High by the US Fed Reserve. The EU Central banks has already reduced its rate twice while the USA remained with no change )
And Bitcoin remains stable.
And Bitcoins international adoption continues.
STACK SATS
BITCOIN trade ideas
BTCUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Off the 50% FibBased on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 106,291.54, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 103,781.90, a swing low support.
The stop loss is set at 109.135.79, an overlap resistance.
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BTCUSD 6/18/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you an outstanding Market Breakdown of Bitcoins current Price Action. Making his analysis based purely off of Technicals, & Market Structure.
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Bitcoin the next store of ValueBitcoin as a store of value is not a new idea. I've been on this road a long time and my old posts are just timestamps of that.
Currently price is sitting on the Dec/Jan highs. It appears that which was resistance before could become support now.
The fact that the market reacts very fast to small market dips with fear seems like a good sign to me. Though only useful as an indicator in context. We did not break market structure and large buyers are still accumulating. Also retail interest stats like google search have not hit new all time highs. Though google specifically might be a bad metric as AI search is highly used now. There is still a risk of something breaking in US markets while rates stay up and Fed balance sheet is not growing. Though not clear what exactly would break. Kind of like stomping on an orange don't get caught up exactly where the peel breaks. QT is squeezing and you squeeze hard enough and pop. Even with them net buying 10 year US Treasury Bonds. It's still technically a QT environment. Last year bonds almost broke the banks before the Fed aloud those bonds to be listed full term value on the balance sheet. Effectively covering up the issue instead of fixing anything. (Bank Term Funding Program - BTFP)
Pros
Bitcoin has not yet rate seen US rate cuts
Bitcoin has not yet see a new wave of money printing
Fund managers suggesting 2% allocation which is no where close to being reached yet
Recurring institutional buyers, such as corporations adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets (e.g., Strategy).
Cons
Large leveraged holders will need to watch cash flows vs interest payments. In 2022 bear market this was easy for Micro Strategy now renamed Strategy. The reason profits were roughly 7x interest payments. In 2024 that has dropped to 5x. They started with a lot of cash flow and found themselves sitting on melting pile of cash. If Bitcoin holdings out grow the software income enough then finding the money for interest payments becomes a new challenge.
It's still not 100% clear long term how Bitcoin fits in a portfolio.
Most narrative seems like you keep it in a locked room where you celebrate your great
fortune that has no material benefits in your life. I think it's probably not that.
Is it just something people collect and lend against?
Act as a index for the greater crypto asset class that people rebalance?
Cash flow with cover calls?
Lend it out if Fiat fails it could act like gold being borrowed.
Important Questions:
What % allocation to Bitcoin makes sense to hold in a bear market?
How do you grow Bitcoin holdings in a bull market?
"This is not financial advice. These are my personal opinions and observations. Do your own research before making any investment decisions."
The chart illustrates a recent downtrendChart Overview
⚙️ Price Action:
The chart illustrates a recent downtrend, followed by consolidation near the current level of $104,933.
A bullish reversal structure is forming, marked by the label “Ch0CH” (Change of Character), which suggests a potential trend shift from bearish to bullish.
🧠
Liquidity Concept
:
The chart highlights a horizontal line labeled “Equal High Liquidity” around the $108,800 level.
This area suggests a liquidity pool where stop orders might be resting above the equal highs.
Market makers may drive price toward this area to collect liquidity before reversing or continuing.
📈
Projected Price Path
:
A white dotted line projects a possible bullish move:
First, a minor retracement or accumulation phase.
Then, an upward impulse aiming to take out the equal highs near $108,800.
🧩 Interpretation:
This chart implies a bullish outlook based on:
Break in bearish structure (Ch0CH).
Liquidity draw above equal highs.
Anticipation of smart money concepts (e.g., liquidity sweeps, inducement moves).
BTC BOTTOM $ - 100% Never Fails (2013 - Today)Bitcoin Weekly Chart Going Back To 10+ Years
We are looking at the BitStamp Green Support Line here that has Marked the bottom correctly before 100% of the time for each each bull cycle pump on bitcoin going 3/3 without fail.
We are now looking to see if we can go 4/4 and mark the new bottom buy with a quick wick down to the green support currently around 73K+ this week, but as each week closes the bitcoin bottom number will rise as the green support line rises over time.
Good luck. Let's see if the 4th time is also the charm.
Final Shakeout Before BTC’s Last Leg Up?BTC Update
Well due update here...
Since my last forecast, price pushed higher without giving the pullback I was anticipating — instead sweeping liquidity above the prior ATH.
After taking that BSL, price stalled and has since been ranging, showing clear signs of bearish momentum creeping in. We're seeing bearish orderflow on the LTF and daily, and volume is thinning out up at these highs — not ideal for bulls.
USDT.D is also pushing higher and showing strength, which typically leans bearish for BTC in the short term. The structure on that chart is bullish and supports the idea of a BTC pullback being likely before any continuation higher.
That said, I'm still pro-trend bullish overall — as I mentioned in April — thanks to the clean bullish shift from the range lows and clear signs of accumulation. We’ve got textbook last points of support (LPS) and unmitigated demand sitting below current price, which are prime candidates for a reversal.
Right now I’m eyeing two key levels:
Upper demand zone / LPS — lining up with the top of the prior accumulation range. This has strong confluence as a breakout-retest zone.
Lower refined weekly/2W demand — valid if we see a deeper flush or capitulation leg, though less likely in the short term.
My focus is on the first level. I’ll be watching for reactions and reversal signals if price taps into it. Same logic applies to USDT.D as it approaches nearby supply zones.
Overall, I see this as a healthy correction — overdue after an extended leg — and expect BTC to push higher and break ATHs once demand is retested and confirmed.
Zooming out: the 4-year cycle is approaching its final stages, with data suggesting a cycle top could form around Q3/Q4 2025 — likely between August and October, if past cycles rhyme. I’ll be monitoring major assets against that timeline and will look to scale out and risk-off when the confluences begin aligning with that macro cycle window.
Just think...
1 last BTC leg up...
Final altseason hype to drag in latecomers...
Then the cycle ends — and the trap shuts as we re-enter bear territory.
Charts:
1D:
3D:
1W:
Extra:
1M:
Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical BreakdownBitcoin 4-Year Cycle Structure – Technical Breakdown
This chart examines Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle behaviour, focusing on the repeating market structure observed across the last three cycles: Bull Market → Bear Market → Accumulation/Recovery → Halving → Expansion.
Key Observations:
🔹 Cycle Timing Consistency
Each of the past three cycles has shown a consistent duration between the halving and the final bull market peak—typically between 500–550 days. Based on that timing, the current cycle suggests we are still ~100 days away from a potential macro top.
🔹 Post-Halving Correction is Expected
Corrections shortly after the halving have historically marked mid-cycle retracements, not macro tops. The current pullback is structurally aligned with the 2017 and 2021 expansions, where Bitcoin consolidated before pushing to final highs.
🔹 Altcoin Market Segments Lagging
TOTAL2 (Total Market Cap excluding BTC)
TOTAL3 (Excluding BTC & ETH)
OTHERS (Altcoins excluding top 10 by market cap)
All remain below their prior cycle all-time highs, which historically occurs before the full market cycle concludes. These segments often accelerate after BTC has established dominance, typically in the later stages of the bull market.
🔹 USDT Dominance Suggests More Upside
USDT.D is still trending down, which historically reflects increasing risk appetite and capital rotation into crypto assets. Prior cycle tops have aligned with much lower dominance levels, indicating further downside risk for USDT.D, and potential upside for crypto markets.
Conclusion:
Despite short-term volatility, the technical structure across Bitcoin and broader market indicators suggests the cycle remains in its expansion phase. Timing models, altcoin lag, and dominance signals all point to further upside potential before a full cycle peak is in.
1W:
1M:
BTC on the Edge – Bounce or Break?🚨 BTC AT MAKE-OR-BREAK ZONE! 🚨
Chart by Mosilar 📊
🧠 Price is sitting on the major trend line + high-volume support around $104K 🔥
👀 A double top is in play — tension is building!
💣 Break below = potential dump to $102K
🚀 Bounce = possible rally back to $108K+
⚔️ Bulls & bears are in a standoff.
This level won’t hold forever—watch closely! 📉📈
BTCUSD: Nowhere near a top yet.Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.257, MACD = 443.000, ADX = 29.912) due to high volatility recently but the bullish long term trend is intact and even more so, hasn't yet started the year-end rally. The Mayer Multiple Bands have always priced a Cycle's Top on their red trendline so no matter how high that may seem from the current market price, the TP zone should be between the orange (2 Stdev above) and red (3 Stdev above) trendines. Minimum TP = 200,000 for this Cycle.
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Bitcoin Setup: Tight Risk, Solid UpsideBitcoin continues to trade within a strong uptrend.
Ideally, I’d prefer to see reduced volatility and stabilization on the daily chart for a cleaner entry. But overall, the current setup already looks attractive — so I’m entering now.
What I like is that for such a volatile asset, the stop-loss is relatively tight — just around -1.70%. The upside potential targets the previous high and beyond, offering 7.50%+.
Let’s go!
Bitcoin Update: Key Levels, Geopolitics & Cautious Trading Ahead
📈💥 Bitcoin Update: Key Levels, Geopolitics & Cautious Trading Ahead 💭🌍
Hey Traders,
Many of you asked for a fresh Bitcoin update — so here we go. 🚀
Last time, we caught that breakout, but it turned out to be a fakeout. Since then, the situation has become more complex. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, combined with uncertainty in the Middle East, are weighing heavily on sentiment. 🕊️💣
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged for now — no cuts yet. Building permits data has disappointed again, but inflation is cooling slightly. For now, the big market mover is clearly geopolitics.
👉 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Support:
$102,400 – $102,700 — If Bitcoin dips here, watch for a bounce.
✅ Resistance:
$106,000 — Major resistance.
Next Resistance: $108,350
Ultimate target: $113,000–$115,000, IF momentum returns.
So how am I approaching it?
📌 Long above $106K → first stop $108K → target $113K–$115K.
📌 Short below $106K → watch support zones carefully.
📌 If we lose $102K, next big supports are $97,700, $89,000 — and even $79,000 if things worsen.
🚫 Big Picture:
We’re still stuck in a broad sideways range — roughly $100,000–$110,000 — until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs. Without a Fed pivot or de-escalation in the Middle East, momentum may stay muted.
🙏 My Advice:
Be cautious. Size your positions wisely. Respect levels. And above all, stay safe — mentally and emotionally — in these uncertain times.
I’ll keep you updated step-by-step. Trade smart, stay kind.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
₿itcoin: SetbackBitcoin has come under selling pressure in recent hours. We cannot rule out that a deeper dip may precede the next leg higher into the upper blue Target Zone between $117,553 and $130,891. Once green wave B concludes in this range, we anticipate a wave C decline into the lower blue Target Zone between $62,395 and $51,323 to complete the larger orange wave a. From there, a corrective rally in orange wave b is expected, which should set the stage for a final leg lower to finalize blue wave (ii). Meanwhile, we’re still monitoring the alternative scenario (30% probability), in which blue wave alt.(i) is still in progress. In this case, BTC would stage an immediate breakout above resistance at $130,891.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
Bitcoin - The Elevated Cycle and the Silence Before Powell.⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – Bitstamp – (CHART: 1M) – (June 18, 2025).
⟐ Analysis Price: $104,044.00
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1M):
▦ EMA90 – ($39,909.00):
∴ Rising steadily, serving as long-cycle structural support since 2020;
∴ Price remains well above this average, with no signs of downward pressure;
∴ The positive slope confirms ongoing bullish macro structure.
✴️ Conclusion: EMA90 holds the foundational base of the long-term uptrend with ample buffer.
⊢
▦ SMA50 – ($48,924.00):
∴ Key axis of mid-to-long-term structure, validated by multiple touches during 2022–2023;
∴ Current price distance suggests technical room for retracement;
∴ Still rising with no sign of flattening or decay.
✴️ Conclusion: SMA50 confirms trend integrity, though overextension calls for caution.
⊢
▦ Ichimoku (Kumo & Lines) – (85,434 | 68,378 | 104,044 | 76,906 | 63,740):
∴ Price remains well above the Kumo cloud – full bullish confirmation;
∴ Tenkan and Kijun are aligned in bullish configuration, widely spread;
∴ Future cloud projects bullish momentum continuation.
✴️ Conclusion: Complete Ichimoku structure signals dominant cycle strength.
⊢
▦ MACD (12,26,9) – (2,344 | 16,426 | 14,083):
∴ MACD line remains above the signal, maintaining a monthly buy signal;
∴ Histogram shows mild expansion, but slower than previous bull cycles;
∴ Momentum is positive but decelerating.
✴️ Conclusion: Momentum remains intact, but peak cycle force may have passed.
⊢
▦ RSI (14) – (68.82 | MA: 67.35):
∴ RSI approaching overbought threshold, hovering near 70;
∴ Momentum is firm but shows resistance to further extension;
∴ Historical comparison to 2020 suggests possible ignition or exhaustion point.
✴️ Conclusion: RSI signals potential tension zone - breakout or reversal ahead.
⊢
▦ VPT (14,8) – (100):
∴ Volume Price Trend has plateaued at its max threshold;
∴ Lack of new highs despite price advance suggests fading directional volume;
∴ Often a signal of accumulation slowdown or redistribution.
✴️ Conclusion: Buyer strength may be waning beneath the surface.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle:
∴ Market structure remains bullish across all core indicators;
∴ Overextension from key moving averages and flattening momentum call for tactical caution;
∴ Any macroeconomic pressure could trigger a local top, without compromising the broader trend.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Realized Price & LTH – ($47,000):
∴ Market price is well above the realized price baseline;
∴ Indicates majority of holders are in profit — structurally bullish;
∴ However, this also creates a risk of profit-taking if confidence drops.
✴️ Conclusion: Strong support floor, but latent pressure exists.
⊢
▦ SOPR - (Spent Output Profit Ratio) – (1.013):
∴ Above 1 means active profit-taking;
∴ Downward slope shows this is starting to cool;
∴ Critical to monitor for a break below 1 - would shift dynamic.
✴️ Conclusion: Still healthy, but at the edge of distribution risk.
⊢
▦ NUPL – (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) - (0.554):
∴ Unrealized profit remains dominant;
∴ Readings above 0.5 historically precede consolidation or pullbacks;
∴ Still distant from euphoric tops, but entering alert zone.
✴️ Conclusion: Market still in profit expansion phase - but under surveillance.
⊢
▦ MVRV - (STH vs LTH) – (STH: 1.0 | LTH: 3.1 | Global: 2.2):
∴ STH neutral, LTH moderately elevated but not excessive;
∴ Market is mature, but not overheated;
∴ Still in a zone that supports further upside with restraint.
✴️ Conclusion: Healthy balance between holders - no imminent top confirmed.
⊢
▦ CME Futures Open Interest:
∴ Sharp rise in open interest across expiry horizons;
∴ Sign of speculative leverage building;
∴ Historically correlates with volatile price action post-FOMC or macro events.
✴️ Conclusion: Liquidity pressure is rising - extreme caution warranted.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ On-chain structure mirrors technical signals - strong trend, but cautious undertone;
∴ No major signs of reversal, but profit saturation could act as gravity if macro shocks occur;
∴ Market is exposed, not exhausted.
⊢
⧉ III. Contextvs Macro–Geopoliticvs – Interflux Economicus:
▦ Fed Chair Powell (Upcoming):
∴ Powell speaks today (June 18); core expectation is rate hold;
∴ Market bracing for hawkish tone: fewer projected cuts and emphasis on inflation resilience;
∴ Historically, Bitcoin has reacted with -2% to -5% dips to hawkish FOMC tone.
✴️ Conclusion: Macro tension peak. Powell’s tone may dictate the next 30-day candle.
⊢
⚜️ 𝟙⟠ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
⚖️ Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⊢
⊢
⌘ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ The technicals are strong, the on-chain base is stable, and the macro setup is explosive;
∴ This is a tension point, not a resolution point - silence before decision;
∴ Precision now is not found in action, but in observation.
⊢
⌘ Market Status:
✴️ Position: " Cautiously Bullish. "
✴️ Tactical Mode: Observation Priority – No immediate entry without Powell clarity.
⊢
BTC on the Daily: Bearish Structure Locked In?So, on the daily, price is in a clear bearish context.
PSAR is bearish
MLR < SMA < BB center
We're about to close below the 50MA
Price already broke below the Higher Lows trendline and the December 2024 top
At this point, it all depends on the macro situation and the FOMC tone tonight.
If the outcome is positive, there's a chance price rebounds.
If not, the chart looks ready to dive.
BTC/USD 3H CHART PATTERNThe BTC/USD 3-hour chart shows a bullish reversal forming from a higher low structure along a rising trendline, indicating increasing buyer strength. Price action has broken above the Ichimoku cloud and is now testing resistance levels, suggesting bullish momentum. The chart also highlights confluence with dynamic support from the 250 and 370-period DEMA indicators, adding to the strength of the uptrend. A breakout above current resistance may lead to continuation toward the marked target zones. Overall sentiment favors a bullish move with clear upside potential if momentum sustains and no major rejection occurs from the resistance zones.
Entry Point: 106,600
First Target: 110,360
Second Target: 112,000
BTC/USD H1 CHART ANNALSIS 18/6/2025
Trading Setup and Strategy Explanation:
Buy at:1042.000
Resistance at:103700
Important Note:
Resistance should be above the current price, not below. If 105,700 is below 106,800, it typically indicates support, not resistance.
**Corrected Interpretation:**
Here's how your setup likely looks:
- Buy Entry:** 104.200
Support (not resistance) 103700
Target 1:108.000
Target 2: 110.000
Level Type:
- 105,700 Support (Stop-loss zone)
- 104.200 Entry
- 10.7000Target 1
Trade Notes:
- If BTC holds above 104200, your long position is technically supported.
- A break below 105,700 might invalidate the bullish setup — consider a stop-loss below that.
- Momentum toward 110K–112K is possible if the market breaks out of short-term consolidation or reacts positively to macro news.
**Strategy Preference:**
Would you like a chart or confirmation based on technical indicators (RSI, trendlines, volume, etc.)?
The Bitcoin Manipulation Trick - How They Lure You Into the Trap📉 Bitcoin spends more time in deep drawdowns than at its peaks. Historically, BTC has spent over 80% of its existence trading 80-90% below its all-time highs, yet people keep falling for the illusion of wealth.
🧐 Here’s how the cycle works:
1️⃣ They drive up the price to make it enticing for new buyers.
2️⃣ You FOMO in at the highs, believing in the "next big wave."
3️⃣ Then they crash it, wiping out weak holders.
4️⃣ They keep it suppressed for years, forcing everyone out, via margin calls, financial strain, or sheer exhaustion.
5️⃣ When enough have capitulated, they restart the cycle.
📊 Historical Evidence:
- 2013 Crash: Over 400 days down 80%+ before recovery.
- 2017 Crash: Nearly 3 years below 80% of ATH.
- 2021 Drop: More than a year stuck 75% below peak.
🔎 If you’re buying now, be ready to:
⛔ Lose access to your money
⛔ Keep covering margins
⛔ Wait years for recovery, if it ever happens …
They play the same trick, every time. If you don’t recognize it, you’re just another part of the cycle. 🚀🔥
INDEX:BTCUSD NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:TSLA TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:DXY NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:CRCL
Bitcoin And The 50 MABitcoin continues to consolidate in a tight range just below the $112,000 resistance, with the price currently hovering around $104,600. The chart shows clear horizontal support at $105,787 and dynamic support from the 50-day moving average – which has once again provided a modest bounce after being tested multiple times this month.
So far, the structure remains healthy but indecisive. BTC is printing a series of higher lows since the March bottom, but the repeated rejection near $112,000 raises the possibility of a developing lower high – a potential early signal of waning bullish momentum if follow-through selling emerges. Volume is declining slightly, suggesting a wait-and-see mode as the market anticipates macro events like the Fed meeting.
Overall, until Bitcoin breaks above $112K with conviction or loses $105K and the 50 MA, this chop is likely to continue. Bulls want to see a clean breakout and strong candle close above resistance, while bears are watching for a break back below $100,718 to open up downside potential toward $92,817.