Warning: BTC Just Got Rejected HARD — Next Stop $101KBTCUSDT 4H Technical Analysis – Bearish Setup in Motion
The current 4-hour chart of BTCUSDT on Binance paints a clearly bearish picture, driven by strong confluence between the Ichimoku Cloud system, price structure, and descending trend channel. Market sentiment has shifted from indecision to downside control, and unless bulls reclaim critical zones soon, a drop toward $101,900 appears highly likely.
Ichimoku Cloud: Bearish Confirmation on Multiple Levels
The Ichimoku Cloud indicator in this setup plays a dominant role in forming the bearish bias. First, the price action has broken below the Kumo (cloud) and is currently rejecting it from the underside. This behavior alone signals a shift in sentiment, as the cloud now acts as dynamic resistance.
The Tenkan-sen (conversion line), shown in blue, has crossed below the Kijun-sen (baseline) in red—this is a strong bearish crossover. Notably, this crossover occurred below the cloud, which within Ichimoku principles is considered one of the most powerful bearish signals available. It reflects a synchronized decline in both short-term and medium-term momentum.
Furthermore, the future cloud (Senkou Span A and B projection) is flat and shaded in red, signaling weak bullish momentum ahead and strengthening the case for a downward continuation. Flat Kumo tops also indicate a magnet for price, often pulling it back for a re-test before continuation—precisely what is unfolding here.
The Chikou Span (lagging line), which plots the current price 26 periods back, is well below both the price and the Kumo. This further confirms that market sentiment, momentum, and trend direction are all biased to the downside.
Price Structure and Trend Channel
Overlaying the chart is a clearly defined descending parallel channel, capturing the recent series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has respected this channel on multiple occasions, rebounding near its bounds and reacting to its midline as dynamic support and resistance.
Currently, BTCUSDT is moving lower after retesting the mid-range of this descending channel, which aligns with the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud. This overlap creates a powerful resistance confluence between $104,600 and $105,800—exactly where price was rejected in the most recent candle clusters.
The repeated failure to break back into the cloud shows that supply pressure is overwhelming, and bulls are losing grip of any short-term recovery.
Liquidity Zones and Risk-Reward Mapping
A red shaded area marks the resistance zone, aligning with the upper boundary of the cloud and the mid-channel structure. This region, between $104,600 and $105,900, has repeatedly acted as a rejection area and represents where sellers are currently stepping in with confidence.
Meanwhile, the projected target is highlighted through the green shaded rectangle, roughly between $101,900 and $102,200, representing the next strong demand zone and the lower boundary of the descending channel.
The downward arrow on the chart visually reinforces this bearish idea, indicating a continuation of the current momentum toward those support levels.
Trade Setup Based on Chart
This current structure provides a clean, high-probability trade opportunity for bearish traders looking to capitalize on further downside in BTC:
• Entry Zone: $104,500 – $105,000
• Stop Loss: Above $106,200 (just above cloud resistance and recent rejection wicks)
• Target: $101,900
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.3 (depending on entry)
Final Thoughts
The technical case for shorting BTCUSDT here is robust. The Ichimoku system aligns on all fronts—price below the cloud, bearish Tenkan/Kijun crossover under the Kumo, a red future cloud, and a bearish Chikou Span. On top of that, price action is obeying a descending channel and just rejected from its midpoint.
If this setup plays out as expected, BTC is likely to retest the $101,900 region before bulls attempt to regain control. Scalpers may consider dynamic trailing stops below $104,000, but positional shorts can hold with clear invalidation above the red cloud zone.
