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BTC OR LEAVE IT BEI'm not showing you this so I can be right. I'm showing you this so you as a retail trader can know what to expect. Could we blow throw these level overnight OF COURSE. However if you're an ALT trader you should know by looking at most altcoin charts that they are either at key turnaround levels or they are still looking like they could mitigate positions lower from inside smart money logical areas like the 50% or even lower to levels near psychological 78% or 88% of structure on the intraday TFs. **USE PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT**
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by YorkTheShiller
$108K BTC ATH in Sight Despite ETF & Moody's HeadwindsBitcoin's Turbulent Ascent: Charting a Course Through Volatility, Institutional Embrace, and the $108,000 Horizon Amid Shifting Economic Sands The world of cryptocurrency is once again fixated on its undisputed leader, Bitcoin (BTC). The digital behemoth is currently navigating a period of intense market activity, marked by dramatic price swings, a nuanced evolution in institutional engagement, and a striking resilience in the face of macroeconomic tremors. As Bitcoin flirts with the $102,900 threshold and repeatedly tests the crucial $104,000 psychological barrier, the air is thick with anticipation. Market analysts and enthusiasts alike are closely watching for a potential surge that could propel Bitcoin beyond its previous all-time high (ATH) to an ambitious $108,000 within the current month. This intricate dance unfolds against a complex global backdrop: a recent downgrade of US debt by Moody's, significant and strategic Bitcoin accumulation by institutional players like Japan's Metaplanet, and observable shifts in the open interest of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). The narrative for Bitcoin in May 2025 is one of inherent strength and heightened expectation. While a recent, sharp pullback from the $107,000 mark was widely attributed to investors capitalizing on recent gains—a classic profit-taking maneuver—rather than a panicked reaction to Moody's revised outlook on US debt, the digital asset staged a swift and impressive recovery, climbing back towards the $105,000 level. This rapid rebound underscores a complex interplay of market forces, investor sentiment, and perhaps a growing perception of Bitcoin as an asset with unique characteristics. This resilience, buttressed by robust underlying network fundamentals and an increasingly confident institutional presence, paints a compelling and multifaceted picture of Bitcoin's current trajectory and its potential future. Navigating Price Swings: Profit-Taking, Market Maturity, and a Dismissal of Moody's Downgrade Bitcoin's recent price journey has been nothing short of a rollercoaster, a testament to its well-documented volatility. However, these fluctuations also hint at a market that is gradually maturing in its response to external economic shocks. The digital currency experienced a notable dip, with some initial commentary linking it to a broader "risk-off" sentiment ostensibly triggered by Moody's downgrade of US sovereign debt. Indeed, Moody's Investors Service adjusted the U.S. government's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings from the pristine AAA to Aa1. The agency cited mounting concerns over the nation's escalating debt burden and the sustainability of its interest payments, a move that traditionally sends ripples of caution through global financial markets, often prompting investors to reduce exposure to assets perceived as higher risk. However, the narrative surrounding Bitcoin's reaction quickly evolved. The sharp sell-off from its recent high near $107,000 was predominantly identified by market observers as a consequence of profit-taking. Investors who had benefited from the preceding upward trend chose to realize their gains, a standard market dynamic in any asset class. This distinction is critically important. It suggests that the selling pressure was primarily an internal market mechanism within the cryptocurrency space itself, rather than a direct, sustained erosion of confidence directly attributable to the US debt downgrade. In a remarkable display of this independent strength, Bitcoin demonstrated a robust recovery, rallying back towards the $105,000 mark. This price action was widely interpreted as Bitcoin effectively "ignoring" or "shrugging off" the downgrade's potential long-term implications for its own valuation. Some market analysts posit that this behavior lends further credence to Bitcoin's burgeoning role as a potential hedge against instability in traditional financial systems and a perceived decline in the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies. While Bitcoin's price did exhibit a corrective phase around the time of the downgrade announcement, its capacity to swiftly regain lost ground suggests that the market may have either already factored in such macroeconomic developments or, more significantly, views Bitcoin's fundamental, long-term value proposition as increasingly detached from traditional economic indicators. The market's reaction, characterized by an initial dip followed by a spirited recovery, highlights Bitcoin's complex and evolving relationship with macroeconomic news. It behaves at times like a risk asset, sensitive to global liquidity and investor sentiment, and at other times, it exhibits characteristics of a safe-haven asset, sought after during periods of uncertainty. The Alluring Prospect of a New Zenith: Is $108,000 Bitcoin's Next Landmark? Amidst this characteristic volatility, a palpable undercurrent of optimism pervades the Bitcoin market. Strong suggestions and analytical forecasts point towards the possibility that Bitcoin could not only retest but decisively surpass its previous all-time high, potentially charting a course towards $108,000, and perhaps even higher, within the current month. Technical analyses, which scrutinize historical price patterns and market statistics to predict future movements, lend support to this bullish outlook. Some chartists and forecasters have identified take-profit targets for bullish positions clustering around the $109,158.98 region. Currently, Bitcoin's price appears to be in a consolidation phase, hovering around the $102,957 mark after a retreat from a local peak of $107,115. Market participants are intensely focused on key resistance levels. The zone between $105,000 and $108,700 is viewed as a particularly critical hurdle. A decisive daily trading session closing above the $108,700 level could act as a powerful catalyst, potentially triggering a fresh wave of buying interest and propelling Bitcoin towards the $110,000 milestone. Should this momentum be sustained, a further ascent to $115,000 by the end of May is considered a plausible scenario by optimistic analysts. This bullish sentiment is further amplified by what some market commentators describe as Bitcoin's "volatile liquidity run." This phenomenon, characterized by rapid shifts in market liquidity and price, is believed by some analysts to be capable of paving the way for new record highs. The market has recently observed unusual trading patterns, such as CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) Bitcoin futures contracts leading volatile price action, even during weekend trading sessions when traditional markets are closed. This indicates a dynamic and continually evolving market structure, increasingly influenced by institutional-grade trading venues. Historically, Bitcoin's price has demonstrated a notable correlation with global liquidity conditions, particularly metrics like the M2 money supply. Expansions in M2, representing a broader measure of money in circulation, have often coincided with upward trends in Bitcoin's price. While current expansions in M2 could theoretically provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, the future trajectory of global liquidity is somewhat clouded by persistent inflation concerns and mixed signals from various economic sectors. Nevertheless, the potent combination of strong technical chart patterns, the potential for favorable liquidity conditions, and a resilient underlying market sentiment keeps the prospect of a new all-time high firmly within the realm of possibility. Analysts are keenly eyeing the $108,000 mark as a significant psychological and technical target. A convincing breakout above this level could potentially unleash further euphoric momentum, drawing in more retail and institutional capital. The Institutional Equation: ETF Open Interest Moderates, While Metaplanet Intensifies Accumulation The role and behavior of institutional investors continue to be a pivotal factor shaping Bitcoin's market dynamics and its journey towards mainstream acceptance. Recently, a noteworthy development was observed in the Bitcoin ETF space: open interest saw a 5% dip, settling at approximately $29.47 billion. This occurred even as Bitcoin itself maintained its price position near the $102,900 level. This decline in open interest, which represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled, coupled with a discernible slowdown in weekly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (which were reported as the lowest in a month, at $603.74 million for the period of May 12-16), suggests a degree of caution or perhaps a phase of consolidation among ETF investors. This follows a period of particularly heightened activity and significant inflows earlier in the year, often associated with the launch and growing popularity of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets. The relatively rangebound trading of Bitcoin, oscillating primarily between $102,711 and $104,971 during this period, likely contributed to this softer, more measured demand for ETF exposure. However, it would be premature to interpret this dip in ETF open interest as a signal of a broader or sustained institutional retreat from Bitcoin. Activity in the derivatives markets, for instance, paints a more nuanced, and in some aspects, more bullish picture. Strong demand for call options, which give buyers the right but not the obligation to buy Bitcoin at a specific price in the future, indicates that a segment of sophisticated traders is actively positioning for an upward price movement, with some targeting levels around $110,000. In futures markets, when open interest rises in tandem with price, it typically signals that new capital is entering the market, reinforcing the strength and conviction behind the prevailing trend. Contrasting sharply with the moderation observed in ETF flows is the aggressive and strategic accumulation of Bitcoin by corporate entities, most notably exemplified by Metaplanet. The Japanese investment firm recently captured headlines with its announcement of an additional purchase of 1,004 Bitcoin. This transaction marked its second-largest single acquisition of the cryptocurrency to date. This significant purchase, valued at approximately $104.3 million at the time of execution, increased Metaplanet's total Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 7,800 BTC. This substantial stash is currently worth over $800 million, fluctuating slightly with market prices but generally estimated between $806 million and $807 million. The company disclosed that its average acquisition price for this latest tranche of Bitcoin was around 15.13 million Japanese yen per BTC. Crucially, its overall average cost per BTC for its entire holdings now stands at approximately $91,340. Metaplanet's Bitcoin strategy is notably ambitious and long-term in its orientation. The company has publicly stated its goals of accumulating 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025 and has even hinted at a more audacious long-term vision of potentially holding up to 1% of the total global Bitcoin supply. This proactive accumulation positions Metaplanet as a significant corporate holder of Bitcoin, particularly prominent within the Asian financial landscape. Its approach has drawn frequent comparisons to that of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the US-based software intelligence firm renowned for its pioneering and substantial investments in Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset. Such large-scale corporate buying, as demonstrated by Metaplanet and Strategy, can exert considerable upward pressure on Bitcoin's price. By acquiring and holding substantial amounts of BTC, these corporations effectively reduce the freely circulating supply available on exchanges, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as exerting deflationary pressure, especially when corporate and even governmental buying activity is rapid and sustained. Metaplanet's actions, alongside those of other forward-thinking firms, underscore a growing and significant trend: the diversification of corporate treasuries into digital assets. These companies increasingly view Bitcoin not just as a speculative investment, but as a strategic reserve asset, a potential hedge against inflation, and a safeguard against the perceived long-term devaluation of fiat currencies. This movement has seen a notable surge in Bitcoin holdings by businesses globally, particularly since early 2024, signaling a paradigm shift in how corporations manage their financial reserves. The Bedrock of Bitcoin: Network Health, Hashrate Resilience, and Expanding Mining Margins Beneath the often-turbulent surface of price charts and the ebb and flow of institutional capital, the fundamental health and security of the Bitcoin network itself remain remarkably robust. Investment banking giant JPMorgan recently reported that the Bitcoin Network Hashrate experienced a slight but discernible rise in the first two weeks of May. The average hashrate during this period was noted at 88.5 Exahashes per second (EH/s), representing a 2% increase. Other data sources from the blockchain analytics community corroborate this trend, showing the daily hashrate reaching even higher levels, such as 831 EH/s as of May 1, 2025, and even peaking at an impressive 921 EH/s earlier in the month. This represents a significant increase from the lows observed in 2024. As of May 15, 2025, the Bitcoin Network Hash Rate was recorded at approximately 864.51 million Terahashes per second (TH/s), which translates to 864.51 EH/s. This continued upward trajectory in computational power dedicated to the network, even in the aftermath of events like the Bitcoin halving (which reduces the block rewards issued to miners), underscores the sustained confidence of miners and contributes directly to the network's formidable security. Adding to this positive picture, mining gross margins have reportedly expanded sequentially throughout this month. JPMorgan's analysis highlighted that as Bitcoin prices appreciated, miners' gross profit margins also saw a month-on-month expansion, leading to improved economic conditions for those securing the network. The "hash price," a key metric representing daily mining profitability per unit of hash power, increased by a notable 13% when compared to April's figures. In the initial two weeks of May, Bitcoin miners earned approximately $50,100 per EH/s in daily block rewards (which includes both newly minted bitcoins and transaction fees). This figure is up 13% from the previous month and shows a 3% year-on-year increase. This financial viability is crucial. It enables miners to continue investing in their operations, which includes covering significant energy costs and upgrading their specialized hardware (ASICs – Application-Specific Integrated Circuits) to maintain competitiveness and efficiency. Leading manufacturers like Bitmain and MicroBT continuously release more powerful and energy-efficient mining rigs. The fact that the market price of Bitcoin remains significantly higher than the average cost of mining (estimated by some analyses to be around $36,800 per BTC) indicates a healthy profit margin for the mining industry. These margins are comparable to those observed at the beginning of previous bull market cycles, further fueling optimism. Some publicly traded mining companies, such as LM Funding, have reported improved mining margins in the first quarter of 2025, successfully navigating the headwinds from the halving event through operational improvements, strategic power agreements, and in some cases, diversifying revenue streams like power sales. The Untamed Frontier: Meme Coins and the Curious Case of BTC Bull Token While Bitcoin, with its established infrastructure and growing institutional adoption, commands the lion's share of attention, the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to be a fertile ground for innovation, experimentation, and, undeniably, speculation. One of the most prominent and often controversial manifestations of this is the meme coin phenomenon. The question frequently arises in online forums and social media: "Best Meme Coins like BTC Bull Token Next to Surge?" This highlights the persistent allure of these unique digital assets. Meme coins are a distinct category of cryptocurrency, typically inspired by internet memes, viral social media trends, or popular culture. Their value is often driven less by intrinsic utility or underlying technological fundamentals and more by community-generated hype, speculative fervor, and the quest for rapid, exponential gains. They are infamous for their extreme volatility, capable of producing meteoric price surges in short periods, but also equally susceptible to precipitous crashes. BTC Bull Token ($BTCBULL) has emerged as a specific example within this highly speculative niche. It has positioned itself with taglines such as "the official Bitcoin meme coin" or a "Bitcoin-themed meme coin," attempting to leverage the brand recognition and market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin itself. Its core proposition appears to be a system of rewarding its token holders with airdrops of actual Bitcoin when BTC achieves certain predetermined price milestones (for example, when Bitcoin's price reaches $150,000, $200,000, or $250,000). Additionally, the $BTCBULL project outlines plans for token burn events. These events, designed to reduce the total supply of $BTCBULL tokens and theoretically increase their scarcity, are scheduled to occur when Bitcoin's price increases by specific increments (e.g., for every $25,000 increase in Bitcoin's price, starting from a baseline of $125,000). Currently reported to be in its presale phase, projects like BTC Bull Token aim to capitalize on the excitement and upward momentum of Bitcoin bull runs. They offer a highly leveraged, and therefore highly risky, way for speculators to potentially profit from Bitcoin's upside. It is absolutely paramount for anyone considering an allocation to meme coins, including those linked thematically to Bitcoin, to thoroughly understand their inherent high-risk, high-reward nature. These assets are, by definition, intensely speculative. They are highly susceptible to "pump-and-dump" schemes, where coordinated buying inflates the price before early holders sell off en masse, leaving later entrants with significant losses. Many meme coins lack long-term viability, tangible real-world applications, or robust development teams. While the allure of quick, life-changing profits can be undeniably strong, the potential for substantial, and often total, financial loss is equally, if not more, significant. Prudent investors should approach such tokens with extreme caution, treating them more as a form of high-stakes gambling or digital entertainment rather than a serious, fundamentally-driven investment. Due diligence, a clear understanding of the risks involved, and an investment amount one can afford to lose are critical prerequisites. Weaving the Narrative: A Complex Market of Resilience, Adoption, and Speculation The current Bitcoin landscape presents a fascinating and intricate tapestry, woven from a diverse array of threads. We observe robust price action that seems increasingly capable of defying or quickly recovering from macroeconomic pressures. There is the steady, albeit sometimes fluctuating, march of institutional adoption, most visibly through products like ETFs, but also through direct corporate treasury allocations. The unwavering commitment of long-term corporate accumulators, exemplified by firms like Metaplanet, adds another layer of demand. Underpinning all of this is the fundamental strength and security of the Bitcoin network itself, evidenced by a healthy and growing hashrate. And, at the periphery, the ever-present speculative fervor of the broader crypto market, including the volatile world of meme coins, adds a unique dynamism. Bitcoin's demonstrated ability to absorb the potential shock of Moody's US debt downgrade and subsequently rally, largely on the back of what was identified as profit-taking, indicates a growing maturity within its market. It also suggests a potential decoupling, at least to some extent, from the reflexive reactions often seen in traditional financial markets. The widespread anticipation of a new all-time high, with many eyes fixed on the $108,000 level, is not without foundation. It is supported by various technical indicators, ongoing positive sentiment, and a persistent bullish undercurrent in many segments of the market. However, the recent dip in ETF open interest serves as a salient reminder that institutional sentiment can be subject to caution and re-evaluation, and that the path to higher valuations is rarely a straight, uninterrupted line. Corrections and consolidations are natural parts of any market cycle. Metaplanet's aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy highlights a different, perhaps more profound, facet of institutional interest. This is not just about short-term trading or exposure to a new asset class; it's about a long-term conviction in Bitcoin's potential role as a strategic treasury reserve asset. Such a trend, if it continues to grow, could have a more sustained and significant impact on Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics over time. Meanwhile, the healthy hashrate figures and reports of improving miner profitability provide a solid and reassuring foundation for the network's continued secure operation and the confidence of its participants. The emergence and popularity of meme coins like BTC Bull Token, while arguably peripheral to Bitcoin's core value proposition and its aspirations as a global financial asset, reflect the undeniable speculative energy that often accompanies bull markets in the cryptocurrency space. It serves as a reminder of the diverse and sometimes bewildering ecosystem that Bitcoin anchors – an ecosystem that now ranges from highly sophisticated institutional financial products and regulated investment vehicles to community-driven, high-risk, and often ephemeral digital tokens. Gazing Forward: A Market Poised for Potentially Defining Movements As May 2025 continues to unfold, the Bitcoin market stands at a fascinating and potentially pivotal juncture. The confluence of technical factors, institutional behavior, network fundamentals, and macroeconomic influences creates an environment ripe for significant moves. Several key elements will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months: • Price Action Around Critical Levels: Bitcoin's ability to decisively breach and, more importantly, hold above the formidable resistance zone generally identified between $105,000 and $108,700 will be a critical determinant of whether a new all-time high is imminent. A strong breakout could ignite further momentum. Conversely, key support levels, likely around the $100,000 to $102,000 range, must hold firm to maintain the prevailing bullish market structure. A break below these supports could signal a deeper correction. • Institutional Capital Flows: Continued monitoring of inflows and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, as well as changes in their open interest, will provide valuable insights into shorter-term institutional sentiment and positioning. Simultaneously, tracking further corporate accumulation by entities like Metaplanet and Strategy will offer signals regarding long-term conviction and the adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset. • Network Fundamentals and Security: Sustained growth in the Bitcoin network hashrate and the maintenance of healthy mining economics will continue to be vital indicators of the network's underlying security, resilience, and the confidence of its core infrastructure providers. Any significant disruptions or negative trends in these areas could impact broader market sentiment. • Overarching Macroeconomic Influences: While Bitcoin has demonstrated a degree of resilience, the broader global economic climate will undoubtedly continue to exert an influence. Key factors to watch include inflation data from major economies, monetary policy decisions from central banks (particularly regarding interest rates and quantitative easing/tightening), and any further significant developments related to sovereign debt or geopolitical stability. • Prevailing Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, as reflected in metrics like the Fear & Greed Index, activity in derivatives markets (funding rates, options skew), and the tenor of discussions within online communities and social media, will play a significant role in driving short-term price movements. This is particularly true for the more speculative assets within the ecosystem. Bitcoin's journey is one of perpetual evolution, marked by innovation, debate, and dramatic market cycles. The current phase, characterized by ambitious price targets, strategic institutional chess moves, and robust underlying network strength, suggests that the coming weeks and months could be particularly pivotal in shaping its longer-term narrative. While the prospect of Bitcoin surpassing the $108,000 mark and venturing into new price discovery territory excites many participants, the asset's inherent volatility, coupled with the speculative elements that froth at the market's fringes, necessitates a balanced and informed perspective. Acknowledging both the transformative potential of Bitcoin and the considerable risks that continue to define its unique position in the global financial landscape remains essential for anyone navigating this dynamic space.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bryandowningqln
BTC, last Chance in this bull market?Hello everyone, the market was very challenging within the last weeks, because there had been many ways to count, which is the most difficult part of elliot wave analysis. The reason was, that the price was in a correction/ consolidation, which I assume has now finally ended. Trump accounced that they picket 5 coins for the strategic reserve: BTC ETH XRP SOL ADA This aligns very well to what people have waited for. If you believe in a finall bull run, these 5 could be part of your portfolio. I would also recommend to have a look at LINK and LTC, as they are performing quiet well.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Kyrean
Analysis of BTC's Trend After Two Breakthroughs Above 105,000Recently, the price of BTC has been fluctuating within the range of 102,000-105,000 📊. It has broken through the 105,000 resistance level twice: the first breakout reached 106,000 💥, and today it strongly broke through to 107,000 🔥 before quickly retracing to the 102,000 support level ⬇️. After hitting the bottom, it rebounded rapidly to 105,000 📈. The current upward trend has not stalled 🚀, and shorting at high levels near 106,000 can be considered when the price rebounds to this area ⏳ 👉 ⚡⚡⚡ BTCUSD ⚡⚡⚡ 🚀 Sell@105000 - 106000 🚀 TP 102500 - 101500 🚀 Buy@101500 - 102500 🚀 TP 105000 - 106000 👇Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sovereign-
Was not a fan of BTC, but looks like I am jumping in the van.I was never fond of BTC as I was firm follower of Buffet, and he is not a fan of BTC. But looking at current time, and how long Bitcoin has come from being valued as the cost of a pizza to a house. And Saylor's MSTR is interesting and has been printing money great. $105,000 was previous resistance, imo. The price has broken it and has come way below and again is trading about the this price, making it wildly confident. And PLUS it has made a double bottom at a similar price range, easily. Making 10%-20% of your portfolio in BTC seems to be a good option, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, just my opinion.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FinExcel
The Global M2 correlation to Bitcoin / CryptoFollow the money. Global M2 represents the worldwide money supply & its movements directly impact financial markets. As seen recently, when global M2 declined, Bitcoin & crypto followed roughly 10 weeks later. While further downside is possible, this drawdown is a natural part of the cycle. There's a clear correlation. This liquidity shift will likely continue throughout the year, setting the stage for the next leg up. Just make sure you hold digital assets with real utility & strong fundamentals, those with long-term growth potential. Regardless of short-term fluctuations, we’re headed much higher soon.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by vandell33
Bitcoin About To Dump?Yesterday’s daily and weekly candle closes were the highest in Bitcoin’s history – a strong bullish technical signal in theory. But almost immediately after the close, price reversed sharply, casting doubt on the breakout above $106,000. More importantly, we’re seeing a potential bearish divergence developing. Price made a higher high, while RSI printed a lower high and is now dropping out of overbought territory. This divergence is confirmed across all lower time frames and is even forming on the weekly, though that still needs confirmation. Adding to the concern – the move up occurred on low Sunday volume, which always raises an eyebrow. The broader market also feels euphoric, but this is happening in an environment where macro uncertainty still looms large. This could be a fakeout above resistance, and caution is warranted here. A confirmed breakdown back into the prior range would shift the short-term bias to bearish. Stay sharp – signals are starting to flash yellow.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
Coiled to Explode? BTC Printing Higher Lows into ResistanceContext – Structural Overview BTC has returned to its all-time high resistance zone ($103K–$106K). The yellow zone marks a multi-month consolidation range — we’ve now re-entered the top of that range, testing for breakout. This is the fifth test of supply, with bulls showing growing aggression, but now showing early signs of exhaustion. Technical Breakdown 1. Price Action – Multi-Touch Resistance BTC is pressing up against the same resistance zone that capped price for months. Each pullback has created a higher low (marked with circles) — a sign of accumulation and pressure build-up. But Friday’s candle shows rejection from the upper range, forming a possible short-term shooting star. Key takeaway: Market is either coiling for a breakout… or setting a bull trap at major resistance. 2. Volume – Weak Breakout Follow-Through Volume has not increased significantly on this recent breakout attempt — a red flag. The previous breakout attempt also failed on low volume. For a true breakout above $106K, we need to see a volume spike + strong candle body. 3. MACD – Bullish Momentum Slowing MACD is still bullish, but the histogram is fading, suggesting momentum is weakening. No bearish crossover yet, but it’s flattening, indicating stall risk. If histogram turns red, expect consolidation or a potential pullback. 4. RSI – Rejected at Overbought Line RSI tagged 70 and immediately reversed, failing to push into extreme bullish territory. Classic RSI rejection behavior at overbought levels — especially at key resistance. This adds weight to the idea of a short-term top or cool-off phase. Fibonacci & Structural Context This zone overlaps with previous all-time highs and top-side of consolidation. Technically, this is a Golden Pocket Zone for a bull breakout or failure. Macro crypto sentiment is bullish, ETF flows are strong, and institutional adoption is ongoing. However, BTC has rallied ~40%+ off March lows, and the market may need to shake out weak longs before pushing to new highs. Conclusion – High-Stakes Zone, Leaning Short-Term Toppy Bearish Case (most likely short-term scenario) Failed breakout above $106K; RSI rejection + MACD slowing; No volume confirmation. Could trigger a pullback toward $96K– GETTEX:92K support Bearish Setup: • Entry: below $102.5K • Target: $96K, then GETTEX:92K • Stop: above $106.5K • Risk:Reward ~ 1:3 🚀 Bullish Case Structure shows higher lows = ascending pressure If BTC closes strong above $106K on high volume, the range is broken. Next target = $114K–$120K Bullish Setup: • Entry: confirmed close > $106.5K • Stop: under $102K • Targets: $114K, then $120K+ Final Thought: BTC is testing a multi-month ceiling with weak momentum, which often results in a short-term reversal or false breakout trap. But don’t fade it blindly — volume will confirm which way this breaks.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BenRoses
BTC still consolidates within a rangeIf you were like me, you got a little dose of hopium after BTC closed above last week's resistance around $105k. Nonetheless, resistance was expected from $105k - $108k with price starting the week with a bearish engulfing candle, currently trading around $103.1k. We will have to see if last week's support around $101.5k holds. If the price continues with bullish momentum and does something like the period from 22 Apr - 6 May, a successful bull flag breakout could take BTC to $115k. If support is lost, we could see retests of previous levels as low as $94.5k. However, my guess would be a test of $97.5k before going higher, creating a HHHL market structure.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by RayneOnChain
May 16 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello It's a Bitcoinguide. If you have a "follower" You can receive comment notifications on real-time travel routes and major sections. If my analysis is helpful, Please would like one booster button at the bottom. This is the Nasdaq 30-minute chart. There is no separate indicator announcement. We proceeded with trend following. After entering the 1st long position at the top, If it does not break away from the purple support line, it goes up vertically. *We proceeded along the red finger movement path in the next wave. We expected the movement to be a strong rise. From the bottom breakaway, it is open up to the 2nd section, and we will omit the detailed explanation. This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart. At the bottom left, with a purple finger, I connected the long position entry section of 101,785.1 dollars that I had on the 15th. The current position is the 30 + 1 section, but since the 4 and 6-hour central lines were also touched at the same time, the mid-term pattern is broken, and the daily chart MACD dead cross is in progress. The strategy is one-way, one-way, I am explaining it only on one page of the 30-minute chart, so it is limited, but I organized it as simply as possible. *When the blue finger moves Two-way neutral Short->Long or long waiting strategy 1. 104,791.3 dollars short position entry section / stop loss price when orange resistance line is broken 2. 103,241.8 dollars long position switching / stop loss price when green support line is broken After that, long position target price in the order of Good -> Great -> Refer to pink finger simulation. If it touches the top once or comes down right away from the current position, it is the final long waiting strategy at the bottom section 2. From the bottom section breakout, it is open from 3 -> 99345.9 dollars. Please use my analysis article so far only for reference and use I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss price. Thank you for your hard work this week.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by BitCoinGuide