Bitcoin full analysis, what's going on?Bitcoin has been trading horizontally since May 8th, with occasional breakouts both upward and downward. This trend is largely attributed to two factors: institutional buying and miners selling. The low trading volume on exchanges, combined with a decrease in daily trades from its recent peak in February 2024, has led to increased volatility, although these fluctuations have been relatively small compared to past swings.
In my opinion, the bull run began in October 2023, as evidenced by increasing volumes and a steady rise in prices. Unlike previous cycles, this market has priced in the halving in advance, leading to gains year-to-date from approximately 15800 USD to a new all-time high (ATH) of approx 112,000 USD. By any standards, this is an excellent return and shows that Bitcoin is performing well and should be held.
However, it's worth noting that this bull run has lasted 590 days, which is longer than previous cycles that typically lasted less than 585 days, depending on how one defines the start and end. What is keeping Bitcoin from skyrocketing? The answer seems to be that the bears are currently in control, with major overhead resistance at 112k. Bitcoin has struggled to stay above 108k for any significant period. Additionally, the accumulation/distribution metrics are leveling off, daily trading volumes are decreasing, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is high, indicating that profits are being taken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of bearish divergence, and we are observing a flag pattern that appears to be forming a descending triangle following a double top. All these indicators suggest we may be nearing the end of this cycle.
On a positive note, Bitcoin short positions are not particularly high, nor are long positions, indicating market uncertainty about the direction. Geopolitical tensions, a weak U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and tariff chaos could act as catalysts for price movement. The successful Circle IPO demonstrated that there is market appetite for crypto. Bitcoin has also built considerable support in the 95k-107k range, and the flag pattern suggests a potential rise to 115k in the next breakout.
In my analysis, the bearish outlook feels stronger. Although there are positive signals for the upside, the return on investment this next upward move could only be 115k. As a result, I have stepped out of Bitcoin and into other assets that I deem more stable during this global period. I plan to re-enter Bitcoin when it reaches around 44k or lower (50-70% correction, depends on when and I will DCA), which would present a more attractive entry point. More importantly, if Bitcoin is maturing and behaving like gold or another stock, I will treat it as such. Legislation remains uncertain, and I have experienced being on the wrong side of crypto in too many cycles. When FOMO kicks in, it's often the right time to exit.
As I look at the charts and say the phrase "moon BABY," I realize my spaceship is not yet ready. Safe trading, everyone! These are my thoughts on Bitcoin. Let me know if you agree or if you think I am completely off the mark. Not trading advice.
BITCOIN trade ideas
Critical Cycle Cluster 21st-22nd for BTCNote the geometrical confluences in the last hours of the 22nd (UTC-4).
A bigger swing is expected to influence the higher timeframes as well.
Notice the table, many consecutive hours with lower intensity can add up to a bigger cluster. It popped up because of the chart geometry; otherwise it may pass unnoticed.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 98,383.98
1st Support: 94,101.85
1st Resistance: 108,545.92
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Bitcoin H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementBitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 103,844.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 107,000.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 99,546.32 which is a swing-low support.
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Bitcoin Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 062225Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 99,063/61.80%
Chart time frame:B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress:B
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
$BTC Lost $100K Support – Retesting From Below Bitcoin broke CRYPTOCAP:BTC Lost $100K Support – Retesting From Below
Bitcoin broke the key $100K support and dropped to $98,200, but has now bounced slightly and is trading near $100,800. However, the situation remains bearish.
🔸 Key Support Zone at 99,763 – 103,112 (Broken & Retesting):
This zone is now being tested from below. If BTC fails to reclaim it, downside pressure continues.
🔸 Upside Target: 110,324 (Invalidated)
Only a strong move back above $103K can revive bullish momentum.
🔸 Risk Level at 100K:
If today’s daily candle closes below $100K, expect more downside — next major target is around $92,000.
🔸 Outlook:
BTC is in a bearish retest phase.
If $100K holds as resistance → expect further dump to $92K.
If reclaimed with strength → structure may stabilize.
Shorts still in profit — manage wisely.
Stay alert. Global tension keeps markets highly reactive. Keep risk tight and follow the trend.
Bitcoin Holds $100k as Risk Assets Shrug Off Mideast TensionsWeakness in risk assets has been relatively contained so far on Monday in Asia, despite the escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over the weekend—including in bitcoin.
Yes, it’s down, but not by any margin that sets this open apart from the usual. And having bounced after a brief dip below the psychologically important $100,000 level—which also doubles as wedge support—it’s generated a potential long setup if risk appetite improves.
Longs could be considered above $100k with a stop beneath today’s low to protect against a reversal. Targets include $102,500, $106,500 or even $109,000, depending on your preferred risk-reward.
While momentum signals are neutral to mildly bearish, the price action so far has been constructive for the setup.
Good luck!
DS
BTC Weekly Outlook - paving the wayBTC Weekly Outlook
In this week's forecast, we're observing a structured plan grounded in historical monthly Bitcoin data and liquidity dynamics. With MH (Monthly High) and ML (Monthly Low) clearly marked, this scenario outlines a potential roadmap for price action through short-term liquidity movements and higher timeframe rebalancing.
Phase 1: Retrace to 4H BPR and Weekend Liquidity (Green Path)
The first part of the projection anticipates a minor upward move early in the week, ideally on Monday or Tuesday. This rally would target the 4H Bearish Price Range (BPR) and weekend liquidity, which are areas where price often moves to fill orders left unfilled during lower volume periods.
The blue box around the BPR highlights a key short-term zone of interest. Inside it lies the OTE level and the midpoint of the prior range, both typically offering reactions as market participants attempt to position themselves at favorable prices before larger moves unfold. A move into this area would likely be followed by a rejection, setting up for a deeper move lower.
Phase 2: Distribution and Breakdown Toward Monthly Statistical Targets (Orange to Green)
After reacting to the 4H BPR area, the expectation is for a broader move down through the rest of the week. This would take price below ML (Monthly Low) and into deeper liquidity zones where historical data suggests higher probabilities of price interaction.
Two key levels are marked based on monthly performance statistics:
TP1 at the first 90 percent confidence level, where price could pause or consolidate.
FULL TP deeper down, near a liquidity-rich area that aligns with a Weekly Imbalance (W IMB). This would be a logical place for larger participants to begin building longer-term positions.
Phase 3: High Timeframe Discount and Reversal
Once price reaches the imbalance, the projection expects a shift in momentum. This region represents a higher timeframe discount, where order books are more likely to begin filling for longer-term positions.
From here, the green path resumes, suggesting a reversal and a sustained move upward. If this plays out, BTC would:
-Complete a full liquidity sweep below ML
-Accumulate at lower prices where there is room to fill larger buy orders
-Begin a strong push upward, potentially leading toward new all-time highs
This sequence is not only logical from a liquidity perspective but is also statistically supported by how BTC typically behaves around monthly lows and key imbalances. The forecast reflects a market that needs time and space to build positions before initiating the next major leg up.
Bitcoin Break: Watch 100K Revesal Or Test Of 95K.Bitcoin broke 100K support without any type of retrace attempt (YET). This move which is attributed to global events should not be entirely surprising. Most importantly do not OVERREACT, especially with all the nonsense hype this will generate. Here is a more effective way to process the current situation.
Avoid bias and pay attention to the bigger picture. In terms of wave count, Bitcoin can technically retest the 85K area and STILL be considered within a broader Wave 4. This implies the broader structure is still BULLISH (Wave 1 overlap). A swing trade or investing buying opportunity can develop in the 95K area or lower (see illustration).
The short term momentum is bearish as per break of 100K. This should guide shorter time frame strategies like day trades. A new bearish trend line is in play (see arrow). At this point without any meaningful reversal pattern in play (4H or above) look for bearish continuation patterns like consolidations (triangles) inside bars, etc. The 95K support would be a price objective to consider if you are open to aggressive short strategies. Keep in mind, shorting into such a low is HIGHLY risky and best suited for those who have adequate experience.
This situation proves once again, "expert" opinions mean nothing. A few short weeks ago, Bitcoin was poised to break out and everyone was going to be rich again (remember the Bitcoin conference?). So much for that. The market does NOT care what you, me or Michael Saylor thinks. It reflects the perception of the future, whether or not that future plays out.
This is precisely why CHARTS can offer value in terms of measuring potential and RISK. You don't even need to be that technical, just take a look at the weekly time frame. The previous week's bearish pin bar low was broken signaling weakness, NOT Bitcoin 100 million K.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
BTCUSD CRACKing Everywhere!As I have been warning for a while now. See previous post.
I first warned to wait for the CRACK!
Then we got the 2nd CRACK!, very normal.
Then a nice M pattern with a lower high.
Then another CRACK!
And now a right Shoulder.
MAGIC!
Now we wait for the H&S to break down.
Click boost, follow, and subscribe for more. Let's get to 5,000 followers. ))
Bitcoin to under 1000 by mid 2026Three drives of bearish divergence, proof of diminishing returns cycle once again, proving that next cycles diminished returns will not even break new highs after the bear marker...if there even is a next cycle... which I doubt will occur since the only appeal of bitcoin is to get rich quick and once it loses that then its over.
Anyway, i would call for zero but i doubt that occurs right away, probably get some diehard delusional cultists buying down there stopping it from going right away, maybe bounces around a bit afterward but the destination ultimately is zero.
$BTC Heading to the Long-Awaited 200DMA Retest ~$96kFULFILL THY PROPHECY 📖
CRYPTOCAP:BTC making its way down to the long-awaited 200DMA retest, which just so happens to show confluence with the .618 Fib level at $96k.
RSI shows a bit more room to the downside as well.
Make sure to get those bids in!
BUY BTCUSDBitcoin (BTC/USD) is showing signs of a strong bullish reversal off a major demand zone at $98,000.**
If price holds above this level and confirms with continued bullish candles, the likely trajectory is toward the resistance zone around $110,000–$111,200.
The forecast structure suggests a clean trend recovery pattern. However, manage risk tightly — as a breakdown below the demand zone could flip the narrative to bearish.
People say Bitcoin is a safe haven… but these past few days are With everything going on between the U.S. and Iran, I thought BTC would hold up — maybe even rally. But nope.
It's dropping. Hard.
While gold and the dollar are climbing, Bitcoin is acting more like a risk asset than a safe one.
And honestly, that says a lot.
I’m not saying Bitcoin has no value — I actually like it. But when there’s real fear, real war, the big players dump it.
Seems like they still don’t trust it as “digital gold.”
Now... what really catches my attention is that BTC is dropping before other assets.
And maybe that’s a signal.
Maybe Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven yet…
But it might be an early warning that the market is getting ready for something bigger.
Just putting it out there. Watching closely.
Bitcoin Daily Update June 22nd 2025Bitcoin daily chart:
🔻 Bearish Signals
1. Break of Rising Trendline:
The price has broken below the upward (orange) trendline, indicating a shift in momentum.
This trendline had previously acted as support, so the break suggests growing selling pressure.
2. Support Levels:
BTC is now hovering just above $99,634, which appears to be a key short-term support.
The next major support is around $93,363 — a break below that could open the door to mid $80K or even $71K (0.786 Fibonacci level).
3. Market Cipher Indicator (middle panel):
The momentum wave is clearly descending, and VWAP (green) is curving down.
The money flow (red) is negative.
Bearish dots and crosses are appearing.
4. Stochastic RSI (bottom panel):
Both %K and %D lines are dropping sharply below the 20 line, suggesting downside momentum is strong.
No sign of bottoming out yet.
🟡 Neutral/Bullish Watch Points
If BTC holds $99.6K and reclaims $100,115 or $104,616, it could neutralize or reverse this bearish setup.
RSI is not oversold yet, so room remains for further downside before any strong bounce.
📉 Summary:
BTC is currently bearish on the daily chart with:
Breakdown from an uptrend.
Weak momentum.
Declining oscillators.
Support tests underway.
If $99.6K fails, eyes shift to $93.3K, and below that, $86.5K–$71.9K as potential zones.
....
🔻 Primary Trade Setup (Bearish)
⚙️ Type: Short Position
⏰ Timeframe: Daily
📉 Strategy: Trendline break and momentum continuation
Entry:
Below $99,500 (confirmation of trendline breakdown & continuation)
Targets:
1. Target 1: $93,363 — Previous support level
2. Target 2: $86,500 — Next horizontal support
3. Target 3: $71,949 — Major 0.786 Fibonacci level (high confluence)
Stop-Loss:
Above $100,600 (to avoid fakeout wicks)
Or tighter: $100,150 (for smaller R:R)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R):
Entry: ~$99,500
SL: ~$100,600 → ~1.1% risk
TP1: ~$93,300 → ~6.2% reward
R:R ≈ 5.6:1 (to TP1) — solid risk profile
🔄 Alternate Plan (Bullish Reversal Setup)
⚙️ Type: Long Position (Only IF price reclaims broken levels)
If BTC reclaims $100,600 and closes above $104,616, trend could resume up.
Entry:
Break and daily close above $104,616
Targets:
1. $110,616 — recent resistance
2. $112,000 — psychological + historical zone
Stop-Loss:
Below $100,600
Invalidates upward breakout
📊 Indicators to Watch:
VWAP: Still pointing down (bearish bias)
Money Flow Index: Still in red (risk-off)
Stochastic RSI: Resetting near bottom — could support bounce later
Much love and appreciation,
– chevs710
BTC eyes on $97.8k: Last stop before 85.3k Golden Genesis retestShown here is a single fib series in three different time-frames.
The "Genesis Sequence" has called every major turn since 2015.
Clear reactions at each fib confirms our faith in the "Golden Ratio"
Topped at the 111.66k fib, and orbitted the 105k fib for a bit.
Now approaching a critical fib at 97.8k that bulls must fight for.
If it does not hold then we look to the Golden Genesis at 85.3k
$ 97,769.44 is the exact location of next fib.
$ 85,354.35 is the exact location of the Golden fib.
Golden Genesis fibs deserve the respect of a retest.
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Previous calls of the Genesis Sequence include these amazingly PRECISE turns:
$111k Top call:
$105k recent Top call:
$73k previous Cylce top:
Hit the FOLLOW and BOOST to encourage more such PRECISE charts.
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BTC USD ENTRY point 100000 target 101000 Stop Loss 99200 You're sharing a trade setup for BTCUSD:
- *Entry Point*: $100,000
- *Target*: $101,000
- *Stop Loss*: $99,200
Potential profit: $1,000
Potential loss: $800
Risk-reward ratio looks decent. What's driving your bullish outlook on Bitcoin? Technical analysis, market sentiment, or fundamental news?