Bitcoin full analysis, what's going on?Bitcoin has been trading horizontally since May 8th, with occasional breakouts both upward and downward. This trend is largely attributed to two factors: institutional buying and miners selling. The low trading volume on exchanges, combined with a decrease in daily trades from its recent peak in February 2024, has led to increased volatility, although these fluctuations have been relatively small compared to past swings.
In my opinion, the bull run began in October 2023, as evidenced by increasing volumes and a steady rise in prices. Unlike previous cycles, this market has priced in the halving in advance, leading to gains year-to-date from approximately 15800 USD to a new all-time high (ATH) of approx 112,000 USD. By any standards, this is an excellent return and shows that Bitcoin is performing well and should be held.
However, it's worth noting that this bull run has lasted 590 days, which is longer than previous cycles that typically lasted less than 585 days, depending on how one defines the start and end. What is keeping Bitcoin from skyrocketing? The answer seems to be that the bears are currently in control, with major overhead resistance at 112k. Bitcoin has struggled to stay above 108k for any significant period. Additionally, the accumulation/distribution metrics are leveling off, daily trading volumes are decreasing, and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) is high, indicating that profits are being taken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows signs of bearish divergence, and we are observing a flag pattern that appears to be forming a descending triangle following a double top. All these indicators suggest we may be nearing the end of this cycle.
On a positive note, Bitcoin short positions are not particularly high, nor are long positions, indicating market uncertainty about the direction. Geopolitical tensions, a weak U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and tariff chaos could act as catalysts for price movement. The successful Circle IPO demonstrated that there is market appetite for crypto. Bitcoin has also built considerable support in the 95k-107k range, and the flag pattern suggests a potential rise to 115k in the next breakout.
In my analysis, the bearish outlook feels stronger. Although there are positive signals for the upside, the return on investment this next upward move could only be 115k. As a result, I have stepped out of Bitcoin and into other assets that I deem more stable during this global period. I plan to re-enter Bitcoin when it reaches around 44k or lower (50-70% correction, depends on when and I will DCA), which would present a more attractive entry point. More importantly, if Bitcoin is maturing and behaving like gold or another stock, I will treat it as such. Legislation remains uncertain, and I have experienced being on the wrong side of crypto in too many cycles. When FOMO kicks in, it's often the right time to exit.
As I look at the charts and say the phrase "moon BABY," I realize my spaceship is not yet ready. Safe trading, everyone! These are my thoughts on Bitcoin. Let me know if you agree or if you think I am completely off the mark. Not trading advice.
