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BTC/USDT HIDDEN PATTERN! SM, FIB AND MORE COMFIRMED!Price Resilience Amid Geopolitical Stress Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable strength during the Israel-Iran conflict, briefly dipping to ~$98K but swiftly rebounding above $105K. This aligns with historical patterns where BTC initially sells off on geopolitical shocks but recovers aggressively within weeks, outperforming gold and equities by 15-60% post-crisis. There is a $96K-$94K "footprint" that coincided with institutional accumulation, evidenced by $1.37B in spot ETF inflows during the conflict week, led by BlackRock's IBIT ($240M single-day inflow) according to official information. This institutional backstop and many others might single-handedly prevented a deeper correction for now, remember that smart money psychology is to create cause out of thin air and buy during selling and indecisive times. Critical Levels to Watch Immediate Support: $108k area is vital. A sustained hold here maintains short-term bullish momentum. The 50-day SMA near $102.8K (tested during June 13 conflict sell-off) remains a macro support floor. Resistance & Targets: The $112K ATH is the near-term ceiling. Breaking this requires stronger spot demand—currently, net exchange inflows are negative, indicating weak retail participation or traders that are backing off for now.There's a $120K target (0.618 Fib) aligned with Standard Chartered’s $150K year-end model if ETF inflows persist. Risk Zones: A close below $108.3K risks a slide to $105K. Failure here opens path to $96K and a further break of this 92k to 96k zone could lead directly to 70k area or even lower if economical and social activities are not favorable in the near to medium future.Dominance above 55% (currently 65%) delays alt season, but a break below 60% could ignite alts in a positive way. Macro Catalysts & Market Sentiment Policy Tailwinds: Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" (proposing $5T debt ceiling hike and U.S. strategic BTC reserves) could weaken the USD, boosting BTC’s "digital gold" narrative. DXY’s -9% YTD drop already correlates with BTC’s 54% post-election rally. Fed Influence: Pressure to cut rates (amid cooling employment data) may accelerate institutional rotation into BTC. ETF inflows hit $2.75B in late June, signaling renewed institutional FOMO. Geopolitical Cooling: Iran-Israel ceasefire talks reduced immediate panic, but residual volatility risk remains. Traders note BTC often rallies 20-40% within 60 days of conflict events. Structural Challenges Liquidity Fragility: Whale moves (for example: 10K BTC sell orders) now impact prices more due to ETF-driven liquidity concentration. Recent $98K flash crash exemplified this. Regulatory Overhang: MiCA compliance costs in the EU and U.S. security-reclassification proposals could pressure smaller tokens, though BTC’s status appears secure 28. Seasonal Slump: July historically sees 6.1% of annual crypto volume—low volatility may delay breakouts until August 4. Strategic Outlook A July breakout above $112K could ignite the next leg to $120K, but a retest of $107K-$105K is likely first. Altcoins remain subdued until BTC dominance breaks <55%—select projects with institutional backing (for example, ETF candidates) or real-world utility for asymmetric opportunities. Conclusion: BTC’s resilience amid chaos confirms its institutional maturity. Trade the $108.3K-$112K range aggressively, with a break above ATH targeting $120K by September. Always hedge tail risks (escalations, regulatory shocks) in this volatility-rich asset class. While this great surge in institutional inflow is good for BTC it also indicates a reduction or slower pace of other crypto currencies. This is my analysis for BTC, let me know what you think and I hope you like it!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Neldjouw
4
BTC/USD: Rejection from 123,000 Triggers Correction Market Overview: Bitcoin surged to the 123,000 resistance zone, completing a potential ABC bullish pattern. The price has since pulled back sharply, indicating the start of a correction. Current price action suggests consolidation within the 116,600 – 123,000 range, as traders lock in profits and reassess direction. Technical Signals & Formations: — ABC bullish pattern completed at the top — Strong weekly resistance at 123,000 — Horizontal support at 116,600 acting as key pivot — EMA(144) far below, suggesting room for deeper correction if weakness persists Key Levels: Resistance: 123,000, 126,000 Support: 116,600, 113,800, 113,000, 110,580 Scenario: Primary: continued pullback toward 116,600. A breakdown below this level may lead to further downside targeting 113,800–113,000. Alternative: stabilization within the range, followed by a rebound and potential retest of 123,000.
ACTIVTRADES:BTCUSDLong
by DENOLLAFINANCERU
Bitcoin’s 486-Day Halving Blueprint: The $200,000 Blowoff?Summary Bitcoin’s price consistently follows a 3-phase structure after each halving, with ~486 days per phase. If history repeats, we are nearing the end of the parabolic phase, with a potential peak around $200,000, before entering a structured drawdown. Halving Cycles: The Real Clock Behind Bitcoin Bitcoin’s monetary policy is pre-programmed. A halving occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), and market behaviour after each halving follows this repeating pattern: Phase 1: Parabolic Rally (0 to 70,000 blocks post-halving). Phase 2: Major Drawdown (70,000 to 140,000 blocks). Phase 3: Equilibrium Phase (140,000 to 210,000 blocks). Each phase lasts approximately 486 days, and this structure has repeated reliably since 2012. Phase 1: The Parabolic Rally (Current Phase) We are currently in the growth segment of the cycle: Price rising rapidly. Miner profitability at highs. Hashrate and network security increasing. MVRV Z-Score steadily climbing, but not yet overextended. Roughly 700,000 BTC are mined during this period, creating a supply shock as issuance is halved while demand accelerates. Phase 2: The Drawdown (Expected Next) Historically begins between block 70,000 to 140,000 post-halving. Market peaks and begins to correct. Miner margins compress. Hashrate may plateau or decline. Forced selling and miner capitulation drive volatility. Price retraces significantly from the peak. This phase resets the market and eliminates unsustainable excess. Phase 3: The Equilibrium Phase Occurs between block 140,000 to 210,000 post-halving. Price enters consolidation. Realized value and market price converge. Ideal accumulation period for long-term investors. Network fundamentals stabilize ahead of the next halving. This phase is critical in building the base for the next cycle. MVRV Z-Score: Market Thermometer The chart includes the MVRV Z-Score, a key metric showing how far price deviates from realized value: Readings above 6.0 have consistently marked cycle tops. Readings near or below 0 have marked major bottoms. Current value is around 2.67 — indicating a rising trend, but not overheated. This metric reflects market-wide profitability and speculative pressure. Why $200,000 Is in Sight The projected resistance curve on the chart suggests that: $200,000 aligns with the top of the long-term parabolic channel. It corresponds with the expected end of the parabolic phase (Q1–Q2 2026). It fits prior extension patterns following each halving. It is a strong psychological target, likely to trigger heavy profit-taking. This price level is not arbitrary—it is derived from the same structure that defined previous peaks. What Comes After If the historical cycle structure remains intact: The peak should occur before mid-2026. A deep correction phase follows, likely into 2027. True bottoms tend to occur as miner capitulation concludes and difficulty adjusts downward. This is where conviction and preparation matter most. Final Thoughts Bitcoin cycles are not random. They are structured around block height, issuance, and miner economics. Every cycle since 2012 has followed this 486-day framework, divided across parabola, crash, and reset. This model has outperformed calendar-based predictions and technical narratives. Disclaimer This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The author holds no responsibility for any losses incurred as a result of using the information presented herein.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Theperfectionist
6
Bitcoin Ascends into the Clear Sky: Structural Break Confirmed.⊣ ⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 1D) - (Jul 14, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: $121,662.29. ⊣ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (1D): ▦ EMA9 - ($115,313.08): ∴ The EMA9 is aggressively sloped upward, serving as dynamic support during the latest expansion phase. ✴️ Conclusion: Bullish control confirmed; momentum is guided tightly by the EMA9 anchor. ⊣ ▦ EMA21 - ($111,636.30): ∴ EMA21 remains positively inclined, acting as a structural trend base beneath price and volume clusters. ✴️ Conclusion: Market remains structurally sound as long as price stays above the 21-day mean. ⊣ ▦ Volume + EMA21 - (Volume: 497.79 BTC - EMA21: 262 BTC): ∴ Volume surge surpasses the rolling average, confirming institutional participation and breakout legitimacy. ✴️ Conclusion: Volume expansion validates price movement - no signs of divergence or exhaustion detected. ⊣ ▦ RSI + EMA9 - (RSI: 77.99 - EMA9: 68.49): ∴ RSI has entered overbought territory, yet its trajectory remains upward and wide above its smoothing band. ✴️ Conclusion: Bullish momentum sustained; overbought conditions not yet reversing. ⊣ ▦ MACD - (9, 21, 9) + EMA's smoothing: ∴ MACD: 3,271.60 | Signal: 2,013.81 | Divergence: +1,257.79; ∴ The MACD line is expanding positively over its signal, confirming momentum acceleration. ✴️ Conclusion: Technical conviction favors bullish continuation; signal remains clean and unsaturated. ⊣ ▦ Ichimoku Cloud - (9, 26, 52, 26): ∴ Price is decisively above the Kumo cloud - “Clear Sky” territory; ∴ Senkou Span A = 121,653.30 | Senkou Span B = 112,486.54; ∴ Tenkan and Kijun lines are sharply elevated, confirming trend authority. ✴️ Conclusion: Zero resistance above; cloud projection supports further upward development. ⊣ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: ∴ All indicators are aligned in a rare harmonic convergence, signaling trend expansion with no current topping structure; ∴ Market shows the behavior of an advanced impulse wave entering Phase II expansion; ∴ Strategic play remains bullish - pullbacks, if any, should be shallow and fast. ⊣ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ∴ Structurally Bullish – Tactically Advancing ⊢ ⧉ Cryptorvm Dominvs · ⚜️ MAGISTER ARCANVM ⚜️ · Vox Primordialis ⌬ - Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy - ⌬ ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Magister_Arcanvm
Where is the next stop? 133,333?Leg 1 was clean. Leg 2 looks ambitious. But here’s the real question: Where’s the next stop—or has smart money already left the station? BTC just sliced through both EMAs with conviction, now hovering above $116K. Volume’s decent, sentiment’s euphoric… but is this rally genuine markup, or a cleverly disguised distribution phase? 🔍 Price targets like $133K are seductive—but what if consolidation isn’t horizontal anymore? Vertical consolidation is real. And it’s where retail gets baited hardest. 📊 Leg 2 might still play out—but don’t ignore the possibility that this is the final markup before a liquidity sweep. 👉 Where do you think the next stop is? 🧠 Is this a continuation—or a trap? Drop your guess... Who has entered here:? Who can let the winners run in this situation: #MJTrading #ATH #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #WyckoffMethod #LiquiditySweep #DistributionPhase #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoChart #PriceAction #EMA #Consolidation #CryptoStrategy #TrendReversal #CryptoCommunity
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by MJElahifx
2
Bitcoin may make correction movement to support levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Price recently printed a new ATH at 118800 points and then began to show signs of correction. Before this breakout, the price was stuck in a long downward channel, where it bounced inside the buyer zone (103000–103800) several times and reversed upward. After the final breakout, BTC entered a range phase between the support level (103800) and the support area (110300–111300), building energy before the massive move. Once the price escaped this range, a strong impulse up followed, pushing BTC above all major levels and reaching a new high. However, after hitting the ATH, the price started to stall and consolidate. Currently, we can see signs of weakness at the top — the structure is forming lower highs and looks unstable, which may indicate a potential retracement. Now the price is trading above the support area, but I expect a corrective move back toward the current support level at 110300. This level aligns with the top of the previous range and now acts as strong demand. That’s why I’ve set my TP at 110300 level — right at the beginning of potential buyer interest. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:BTCUSDShort
by LegionQ8
35
BTC Massive SetupConsolidation for months between 91k and 106k - Classic Wyckoff setup as an accumulation/distribution - Price targets of: 121.878 (122k is the popular target) to the upside with 75,827 on the down - Saylor today put out news to be raising another $2 billion to buy BTC. Either he is going to be able to hold the floor or get washed out - Trade can be taken with confirmation of breakout on either side pretty easily as momentum will be so strong that being on the wrong side will most likely be an immediate stop out
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CrashoutCapital
Bitcoin's Blue SkyBitcoin just closed another weekly candle near its highs – and this one confirmed what the last few were hinting at: the bulls are fully in charge. Price exploded through the \$112,000 resistance level, turned it into support, and barely looked back. The move wasn’t subtle either – it was loud, confident, and backed by a strong candle with virtually no upper wick. That tells you all you need to know: there’s no hesitation here, just buyers pushing price higher. If this were a poker game, Bitcoin just went all-in on momentum, and no one at the table seems brave enough to call its bluff. Even more impressive is how clean the breakout structure looks. After consolidating under \$112K for weeks, BTC finally made its move, leaving behind a textbook support/resistance flip. As long as that zone holds, the path of least resistance is clearly up. There’s no major historical resistance overhead, which means we’re officially in price discovery – that magical place where technicals matter less and raw sentiment takes the wheel. The music is playing, and Bitcoin’s dancing like no one’s watching. Volume has been quietly rising, even if it’s not screaming just yet. That’s a sign of real interest – not a frenzy, but sustained institutional nibbling and long-term conviction. The 50-week moving average is lagging far behind (hovering somewhere in the \$80K range), which tells you how strong this trend really is. That line’s not catching up anytime soon – it’s gasping for air while price is sprinting ahead. Could we get a pullback? Sure. That’s always on the table. But unless BTC fumbles back below \$112K, the bulls aren’t just in control – they’re rewriting the rules. Next major psychological zones are \$125K, \$130K, and \$135K, and with each passing week, they’re looking less like distant targets and more like stepping stones. Buckle up.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ScottMelker
Bitcoin Roadmap to $144K by September – Daily Chart Breakout SetHello traders, I'm sharing my current outlook on Bitcoin using the daily timeframe. Price is ~109K below a key descending trendline (in red), which has defined the structure since 21 May. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $111,000 Support: $91,000 Current Price: ~$109,000 ⚡ Breakout Scenario: If Bitcoin closes above $111K on the daily chart, backed by strong volume (ideally 30% above the 20-day average), I expect the next targets to unfold as: ✅ $122,000 ✅ $133,000 ✅ $144,000 🗓️ Target date for $144K: Around 22 September 2025 This projection is based on a pivot structure I’m tracking: 🟢 25 March 2025: Pivot low at ~$84K 🔴 12 June 2025: Pivot high 🟡 Expected pivot high: ~4 September 2025 (if symmetry holds) This pattern suggests a 1-2-3 formation that could lead to a breakout move. 🧯 Failure Scenario: If BTC fails to break out, I’m watching for a pullback toward the $91K support zone. 🛑 Current Stance: I’m not in a position yet. Waiting for a daily candle close above $111K with volume confirmation and momentum indicators. 📣 Stay Updated I’ll be sharing daily updates as the price action evolves. Follow me here on TradingView, and feel free to share your analysis or ask questions in the comments! 🏷️ Hashtags: #BTCUSD #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BTC #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #BreakoutSetup Let me know your comments.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by Eymen-GUVEN
1
BITCOIN High after High going for the Cycle Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new All Time High (ATH) today, just north of $123000 and shows absolutely no signs of stopping there! The brilliantly structured 2.5-year Channel Up (blue) that has been dominating the entirety of the current Bull Cycle since the November 2022 market bottom, has been on its latest Bullish Leg since the April 07 2025 rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1W MA50 has been the Cycle's natural Support level since the March 13 2023 bullish break-out, never broken after, just like it has been for the 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle (excluding of course the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash). In fact the similarities of the whole 2022 - 2025 Cycle are strong with the 2018 - 2021 Cycle. Similar Bear Cycles of -80% on average, followed by strong Lower Highs break-outs and subsequent consolidations within the 0.786 - 0.618 Fibonacci range, takes us to today with the April 2025 1W MA50 bounce resembling the July 2021 one. Eventually, that Bullish Leg led to the Cycle's Top a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. The market seems to be only one step away of completing that past pattern and if it does, BTC may hit $170000 before the Cycle peaks. Do you think that is a likely scenario after today's new fresh ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
Bitcoin (BTC): Targeting $140K | Our ATH for This Bullish Cycle$120K was broken too easily, and we are now setting our new ATH to $140K, which will be our last target and local top before entering into a bearish market. Now, as we recently had a strong break of structure that was not retested properly (meaning buyers have not secured this area), combined with the RSI being in the overbought zone, we might see some pullback happening anytime from here so keep an eye out for it. About RSI, our yellow line is still in the neutral area, and we see the demand and buyside volume growing, so we are going to look for that line to also enter into overbought zones before looking for potential selloffs. Swallow Academy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SwallowAcademy