#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Max bullishness continues. Every dip is bought. My gigantic bull gap stayed open and until bears can get a daily close below 85000, this screams nothing but 100k. Do I think that we will see the biggest reversal this market has ever seen once we hit 100k? Bet.
Quote from last week:
comment: What a rally this is. On Thursday I wrote that we broke high enough to make 80000 a possibility and it happened on Sunday. I absolutely can’t this see going any higher as of now but I can also be totally wrong about that. I have no interest in buying this, whatsoever. I have also drawn my preferred path forward with a two legged correction where the B would reach 80000 and we got that part already. My next target is 72000/73000.
comment: 1 00k. That’s it. That’s my outlook. The open gap goes down to 73805. Good luck to bears closing this before market prints 100k. The absolut lowest bulls can let this pull back is 80k (50% retracement), everything below is probably the end of the bull trend and we will likely reverse further.
current market cycle: Bull trend - blow off top to 100k
key levels: 80000 - 100000
bull case: Bulls only objective is to keep this market above 80k and print 100k. That’s it.
Invalidation is below 80000.
bear case: Bears could not print 1 daily close below 87000. If that does not scream max bullishness, nothing is good enough for you. Absolut most insane melt up and market pulls back mostly sideways. That is as strong as it gets.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral but if we stay below 85000, we could see the two legged move down as drawn. Could still just be a bull trap and we sell down hard again. That does not mean shorting this right now is a good idea. Bears need to show strength with consecutive bear bars before I think about joining them. Right now it is max bullishness.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 79329 and now we are at 89922. Invalidation target was pretty fine. Market went above and never went back below it.
short term: Max bullish until we print 100k and if we stay above 80k.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you fucking cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed all bs.
