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BITCOIN POTENTIAL BULLBullish Factors: Large Market Capitalization: Bitcoin's high market cap indicates strong investor confidence, especially when compared to other cryptocurrencies. A large market cap often signals potential for price stability and growth. Scarcity and Limited Supply: With a maximum supply of 21 million BTC and a circulating supply close to 19.77 million, Bitcoin's scarcity could drive prices higher as demand increases. The limited supply acts as a deflationary asset, especially attractive in times of fiat currency inflation. High Liquidity: A trading volume of 31.81 billion USD suggests there is significant interest among traders. High liquidity supports upward price movements when market sentiment turns positive. Historical Price: Bitcoin has previously reached an all-time high of 73,794 USD, showing its potential for future gains. Many investors believe that Bitcoin could return to or even surpass these levels if market conditions turn favorable. Bearish Factors: Low Volume/Market Cap Ratio (0.0278): This ratio indicates that only a small portion of the total market cap is actively being traded. If the volume doesn’t increase significantly, it could suggest weak short-term interest, which could be a Bearish signal. High Volatility: Historically, Bitcoin is known for its high price volatility. A sharp drop could occur if negative sentiment arises from global market trends or government regulatory actions. External Pressure (Regulation and Macroeconomic Factors): Strict regulations, especially from major economies, or macroeconomic conditions like rising interest rates could dampen investor sentiment in the short term, leading to Bearish movements. Conclusion: From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin has Bullish potential in the long term due to its limited supply, high liquidity, and historical price highs. However, in the short term, if the volume-to-market cap ratio doesn’t improve or if external pressures like regulations or economic uncertainty increase, Bitcoin could experience a Bearish phase before potentially resuming its upward trend. Impact of the U.S. Elections and a Potential Trump Victory: The outcome of the U.S. elections, particularly if Donald Trump wins and overhauls the American economic system, could significantly affect Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Regulation and Economic Policy: Potential Deregulation: A Trump administration might lean towards deregulating the financial markets, including a more favorable approach to cryptocurrencies. If regulatory burdens on crypto are relaxed, this could foster a more Bullish environment for Bitcoin, attracting institutional investors and fueling adoption. Tax Reforms and Economic Policies: Trump’s economic policies could include tax reforms that favor investors and corporations, possibly encouraging further investment in alternative assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional financial markets. Inflation and Fiscal Policies: Trump has historically supported policies that increase government spending while lowering taxes. Such policies could lead to higher inflation and potentially a weaker U.S. dollar, making Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against currency devaluation. This scenario would likely have a Bullish effect on Bitcoin. On the other hand, if Trump’s policies stabilize the economy and reduce inflation concerns, investors may see less need to hedge with Bitcoin, potentially leading to Bearish pressures. Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty: A Trump presidency could introduce more geopolitical tension and economic uncertainty, particularly with regard to trade relations and international alliances. In periods of uncertainty, Bitcoin is often viewed as a "safe haven" asset, similar to gold. If global uncertainty rises under Trump, Bitcoin could experience increased demand, resulting in Bullish momentum. Conclusion with U.S. Election Influence: The upcoming U.S. elections and the potential for a Trump victory bring additional layers of complexity. If Trump’s policies lead to economic volatility, geopolitical tension, or favorable regulatory conditions for cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin could see strong Bullish momentum. However, if the economic environment becomes more stable and traditional investments regain favor, Bitcoin could face Bearish pressures in the short to medium term. Overall, the political landscape will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s price movements alongside its existing fundamentals.
PEPPERSTONE:BTCUSDLong
by herrylistonhutapea
MORNING STAR or BULLISH HARAMI Here I have price action calling the shots. Despite what anyone says including me. We can all sound like liars because here, the charts don’t lie. 123 numbers is a 3 pattern morning star. The first and second candle qualify. If the second candle moves down a little, the morning start can be more bullish but if it remains within price range from the time it closes, then it’s less bullish but will still dominate. 4 and 5 is a two candle pattern. It qualifies as a bullish harami. Second candle must remain green to qualify. In fact second candle must remain green or become green before the daily close closes to qualify for either patterns. There is a possibility for both patterns to qualify at the same time. Wicks qualify bodies qualify. Is this the time for entry, I’d wait until 5pm pt. Check your time zones.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by The_ForexX_Mindset
5
Bitcoin: Support Levels (Main Support Is...)Since we are expecting a drop, let's look at Bitcoin's different support levels based on different high and lows and extraction methods. ➢ In relation to the up-move between 5-August and 21-October, the following levels show up as the most relevant: 1) $56,879 2) $44,311 3) $36,542 ➢ Considering the move starting the 17-August 2023 low, all the way to the high hit in March 2024, this is what we get: 1) $55,041 2) $43,492 3) $35,271 Basically the same numbers... ➢ Moving averages Daily (D) & Weekly (W) timeframes: EMA377 Daily reads —$55,282 EMA55 Weekly reads —$55,567 EMA144 Weekly reads —$43,479 MA200 Weekly reads —$40,402 EMA233 Weekly reads —$36,731 EMA377 Weekly reads —$28,903 ➢ Considering the entire bullish cycle from November 2022 through March 2024, we get the following support levels: 1) $51,477 2) $44,602 3) $37,727 4) $27,938 ➢ Conclusion 👉 The main three support levels are set around 55K, 43K and 36K. These are the main support levels based on several extraction methods. Do you agree? What do you make of these numbers? How far down do you think Bitcoin will go? Leave us a boost and a comment. Thanks a lot for your support. Namaste.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by AlanSantana
23
BTCUSD afternoon updateBull and bear counts for BTCUSD. Kind of busy chart, I apologize. From 64802 to 69487, it looks like price has formed a contracting diagonal. Today's low tagged .618 fib drawn from 69487 to 64802. Bearish count (red) has an ending diagonal, completing wave c of (y). Neutral count (and probably least likely, in yellow) has price looking for a wave ((5)). Bullish count (green) has leading diagonal (1), wave (2) complete, wave (3) looking north of 74139, and lots of room/extensions to run. If diagonal ends up being correct analysis, bulls must stay above 64802 and get above key resistance of 69487. Break below 64802 opens up bearish scenario. Line in sand key support 58867, break below which would likely be impulsive and confirm bearish count.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by discobiscuit
10/22 Triple divergence is playing out. How deep?Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed down by only 0.16%, despite opening lower than Friday’s close. During the second trading hour, the index dropped 0.5% but managed to recover the losses throughout the day. Only a few AMEX:SPY stocks ended in the green, with Nvidia gaining 4.14%. Despite this minor pullback, the index has seen six consecutive weeks of growth, and one red weekly candle wouldn't derail a bull run that has gained 23% since the start of the year. The tech-heavy NASDAQ:QQQ also closed in the green, up 0.19%, thanks to Nvidia’s boost. The U.S. Leading Indicator Index (LEI) fell by 0.5% month-over-month to 99 in September, a steeper decline than the expected -0.3% and more significant than the -0.2% drop in August, according to The Conference Board’s report on Monday. From March through September 2024, the LEI dropped 2.6%, exceeding the 2.2% decline in the previous six-month period. "Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board. "Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers' outlook for future business conditions was tepid." This index has been decreasing since March 2022, and Monday’s reading officially places it below its lowest point during the COVID-19 period in April 2020. However, the rate of decline appears to be slowing. Meanwhile, companies are still reporting better-than-expected earnings. Some well-known names reporting today include GE Aerospace (Boeing's engine supplier), Philip Morris, Verizon, General Motors, 3M, Enphase, and Invesco (owners of the QQQ ETF). The CME Watch Tool now shows an 11.1% chance of no rate cut on November 7th, up from last week’s 9.3%. While BTC dropped 2.40% on Monday, BlackRock still bought $329 million worth of BTC ETFs. It’s almost amusing to think that BlackRock could be acting as someone’s exit liquidity. The firm now owns 362,192 bitcoins, valued at $23.169 billion. BTC TA: W: Unfortunately for the bulls, BTC closed last week at $69k, which is below the highs of the last two bullish waves in late March and early June. D: Monday ended with a 2.40% correction—much needed after last week's strong rally. A timely release of pressure increases the likelihood of the bull run continuing. An important level to maintain is $66.9k, as it’s the point of control for this recent rally starting from October 10th. The next support levels are $65.8k and the key yearly support at $62.7k. Breaking below $62.7k would invalidate the current bullish wave. On the bearish side, Monday’s candle engulfed the previous five trading days (including the weekend). Before the pullback, the RSI hit 70. 4h: As we spotted and wrote about in our previous letter - the 4-hour chart showed MACD, CVD, and RSI divergences, with three consecutive declining peaks as the price continued climbing. The correction began on Sunday evening, and it may take more than a day to fully play out. The key level to hold now is $66.8k—if it breaks, the price may fall to the daily level of $65.8k. So far, it’s holding. 1h: The 1-hour chart looks bullish, as the $66.9k level is holding, with some bullish MACD and RSI divergence showing. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR have not declined as much as BTC. However, SUI has dropped more significantly by 5%, and TAO by 9%. APT is unexpectedly pumping, while DOGE is up by 27.30%. Seems like alts are diverging from BTC correction. At least the aren't collapsing 7 - 10%, which was the case in the past with BTC falling by 2.4%. Bull Case: BTC could be correcting slightly before resuming the bull run. If a recession is avoided, Trump wins the election, and rates are cut, the outlook remains positive. Bear Case: BTC may have reached an old resistance level without breaking it, confirming it as a solid resistance, and initiating a deeper correction. Fear and Greed Index: The index is back to Neutral at 57, down from the Greed territory of 60 over the weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
BTC/USDT Analysis - 4H TimeframeBTC/USDT Analysis - 4H Timeframe Author: Rhino aka Bear ( Crypto Rado ) Date: 10/22/2024 🔹 Overview: Bitcoin has reached the anticipated upper trendline, facing rejection at $69,800. A double bearish divergence on the 4H timeframe signals that this impulsive move has likely peaked. The price briefly broke above the previous high but quickly dropped by $3,000, landing on the monthly pivot point and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, leading to a small bounce. 🔹 Current Expectation: I anticipate a retest of the $68,000–$68,500 zone before the downtrend continues toward $65,500–$65,000. This next key support area is reinforced by the 0.382 Fibonacci level, S1 pivot, and significant price action. The Simple Moving Average is also moving toward this zone, making it a confluence area of interest. So far, the price has made an impulsive five-wave move downward, followed by a corrective ABC structure. Waves A and B appear complete, and we are likely in wave C, heading for the $68,000–$68,500 zone. If this zone fails, we may see a move towards $48,000, $44,000, or even $40,000. However, it's too early to confirm a full bearish reversal at this point. 🔹 Key Levels:🔹 Resistance Zone: $68,000–$68,500 TP 1: $65,500–$65,000 TP 2: $62.9 - 61.3k Invalidation: 69.6k Next Potential Targets (Bearish): $48,000 / $44,000 / $40,000 🚨 Disclaimer:🚨 ⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and assess the risks before trading.⚠️
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by RhinoAkaBear