Don’t Trade the Headlines—Trade the Chart: My BTC Game PlanThere’s been a flood of noise in the media over the past few weeks—headlines shouting about uncertainty, new U.S. tariffs, market crashes, and an impending recession.
Years ago, I used to pay close attention to this kind of news, identifying myself as a "fundamental analyst". It didn't take long until I realised that I was looking in the wrong direction.
What changed my mindset was reflecting on how I felt during past market dips and how that feeling often contradicted what actually happened next. In almost every major move, my emotions—heavily influenced by media narratives—led me the wrong way. This time, I believe, is no different.
Despite bearish sentiment and doomsday headlines, I see opportunity. Even if a recession is on the horizon—and I do believe it’s likely—the market has a way of pricing in fear before the real damage hits. That means the upside may start before the worst news becomes obvious.
Before diving into my analysis and strategy, I recommend reading my privous publication, which is also linked to this publication
Chart Analysis & Market Status:
As anticipated, Bitcoin is currently retesting the capitulation price range that was first reached on February 28. Since then, volume has remained relatively low, while the Fear & Greed Index has started to slightly rise—indicating that panic selling may have already subsided.
The price is also sitting around the 20-week EMA, a level that has historically acted as a strong support zone. This alignment suggests that bearish sentiment may already be priced in, and we could be at or near the bottom of the current cycle—regardless of the broader macro fears.
My Current Strategy
🔹 Position: I remain bullish at current levels.
🔹 Exposure: 30% of my capital is already deployed.
Bullish Scenarios
Scenrio 1: (More Likely)
If the market bounces in the next 1–2 weeks, then retests this same price range with a healthy pullback, I’ll deploy another 40% of my capital.
From there, I’ll follow the "blue model" (my projected price path) all the way up until either my timing target or pricing target is hit—whichever comes first.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Scenario 2: (Less likely)
If Bitcoin loses the current support at the 20-week EMA, I’ll allocate 20% at the $71K–$72K range and remain bullish—as the broader macro structure stays intact— considring this price as Wyckoff Spring.
Then I will eploying further 20% at around $80K when market bounces back considering it as Sign of Strength of current Re-Accumolation zone.
I’ll keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Bearish Scenario: (Least Likely)
If Bitcoin breaks below the FWB:73K level—the peak of the previous wave—I’ll deploy another 20% around the 50-week EMA (currently near GETTEX:64K ).
This would invalidate the current bullish model, but my strategy adapts: my average entry would drop to ~$73K. In that case, I plan to sell on the next bounce that retests the 20-week EMA.
I’ll still keep the remaining 30% in reserve to adjust my average buy-in during unexpected market moves.
Final Thoughts:
As I always say: This market is stochastic—not deterministic. You can’t plug in numbers and expect a fixed outcome. There is no perfect formula. That’s why a well-structured Plan B is essential for survival and success.
Don't let headlines write your trades. Let the chart do the talking.
BITCOIN trade ideas
Bitcoin Buy!I'll be buying for that point of interest 78544.71 if I see confirmation for reversal. Though H8 zone 79100.20 looks valid too as the price has triggered it and rejects it awesomely.
My projection is this new week is going to be Bullish not just for Bitcoin but some other. Crypto pairs too.
I'm bullish on Eth as well.
$BTC Breakdown – Updated View
Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,828, struggling to maintain bullish momentum after a sharp retrace from the $85K region.
🔸 Key Support Zone at $77.5K:
BTC is sitting on a short-term critical support at $77.5K. Holding this level could provide a short relief bounce.
However, a confirmed breakdown below $77.5K will likely accelerate the downside pressure.
🔸 Next Support Levels:
If $77.5K breaks:
$74K – $72K becomes the next key zone
Below that, $66K – $60K might act as mid-level supports
In a worst-case bearish scenario, $55K – $50K could be targeted
🔸 Risk Level at $72K:
Losing $72K with volume would invalidate bullish structure and increase the risk of a deeper correction.
🔸 Bullish Recovery Needs:
BTC must reclaim and sustain above $80K, then $85K
Clean break above $85K could restart the bullish rally toward $90K+
🔸 Action Plan:
Watch $77.5K closely for reaction
Breakdown = prepare for $72K test
Bounce = potential retest of $80K- FWB:83K
BTC LONG SWING ENTRY OFF PREVIOUS LOW AREASWe are looking to make a BTC long entry on previously supported levels using just chart analysis. Looking at a rebound on a daily actual range trade where add on possible reversal and scale out into the a new local high.
In short, buying the gold, adding in the blue, scaling out into the green.
As you can see been a while so playing this small, getting back into the action
BTCUSDWeekly Bullish Retracement is upon us! $102,500 is where Price will encounter its massive Bearish Continuation.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
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Short position openedI invest in Bitcoin, and don’t usually trade. However, I can see a pretty bearish setup unfolding.
Trade set up:
Entry price: 85341.66 (black line in 4H)
Stop loss: 87,962 (red line in 4H chart, just above the previous week high)
Target 1 - 80.971 (green line, previous week low and Fib 0.5 level in Daily chart)
Target 2 - 78, 253 (green line in 4H chart, previous month low, approx 50% encroachment zone of fair value gap in daily chart .
Reasons:
Weekly:
MACD is still in the bull territory but MACD lines are clearly moving to the downside.
The price has retraced to 50% of the massively bearish red candle of(March 3rd weekly candle) and now resuming to move to the downside.
Daily:
RSI and MACD are both in the bear territory and it looks like they are rolling back to the downside in the bear territory, which is pretty bearish.
The price has dropped and closed below the ascending trend line.
4H:
The price has been travelling inside the ascending parallel channel, but it is dropped and closed below the bottom line.
Both MACD and RSI are deep in the bear territory.
BTC Bears about to get liquidA continuation of distribution is still in play for bitcoin and the alt market.
Maybe a few more days of bleeding but not much lower from here.
Currently in SOW Phase B (Sign of Weakness in Phase B) v
d.stockcharts.com
Looking to see a quick turn around from this zone to the upside.
Target : $130,000
Bull TIMEThe image is a Bitcoin (BTC/USD) price chart from TradingView, dated April 7, 2025. It shows the price movement of Bitcoin over several months, with key levels and potential trends indicated. Here's a breakdown:
Current Price: $77,837
Timeframe: November 2024 to May 2025
Key Levels:
Resistance around $109,356
Support around $77,385
BTC/USD Long Setup – Bullish Reversal PlayAfter a sharp drop, BTC is testing a key liquidity zone around 78.2k. The market structure suggests a potential bullish reversal, with a fakeout and recovery in sight.
📌 Trade Idea:
Entry: After confirmation of a reclaim and bullish structure break (above ~79.3k)
SL: Below recent low ~77.6k
TP: 82.8k zone
RRR: ~3.2
📅 Timeframe: 30min
📈 Bias: Counter-trend long
🔁 Watch for: Price reaction at current support and market structure shift
🚨 Wait for confirmation – patience is key in volatile conditions!
Bitcon On Track For 73.3K - Daily BreakdownBy now it's fairly obvious we've entered a bearish market. From a peak of 109k to now 82k this is hard to argue. We can view our earning moving average data with the red(10day), blue(20day), and yellow(50day) to see the candles are well below all levels. The most important level on the bearish confirmation is the 50 day EMA cross. This is known as a 'death cross'. When price crosses below the 50 day EMA price historically will continue to decline.
Our second major confirmation to enter short is by looking at lower Support zones for price. Looking at price to the left there are long periods from 73.3k to 87k where price action took off very rapidly with zero consolidation.(side ways market action). This means when price comes back down as it is there are zero support levels(as in the orange box) until 73.3k.
73.3k was previously a resistance level(where price did not go above) four times as in circled. These levels will now become a support zone for buying liquidity.
I do believe this bearish market will be much different than previous years. It will be a much more drawn out process with less typical overall volatility. This is due to the increase in the market cap is much higher than before. That being said the major confirmations based upon EMA data and zero support levels make this overall trend very clear.
Don't be stupid NEVER trade against the trend! Do not except price to snap to target over night either. This is a daily view on the overall direction of BTC and is not a short term trade. We should except price to decrease overall, but remember the market increase and decrease in 'waves'.
Mooooooooooon! This capitulation period could be the end of a bearish butterfly / failed break of the range low.
If it is, then it'll be uppy from here.
Very tight tolerance for stops here. If this fails it could be absolutely horrific. But markets have what I suspect to be wash out low properties.
I'll try one more batch of longs and if they don't work write that off as misadventure.
Best chance of a bigger rally to date so far in BTC now I think.
Bitcoin Outlook Amid Uncertainty and Mempool Congestion
This chart captures the current critical juncture for Bitcoin as it tests the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (~$74,277), a zone historically associated with trend reversals. The bounce or breakdown from this region may shape the mid-term trajectory.
The recent drawdown is not happening in a vacuum. Global macroeconomic turbulence including increasing U.S. tariffs, rising bond yields, and parallels to the 1985 Plaza Accord suggests deeper structural fragility. If history rhymes, we may be staring at the early tremors of a broader economic reset, possibly invoking a modern black swan event.
Technically, if support holds, Bitcoin may attempt a retracement back to the 0.5 or 0.382 levels (~$81,000–$87,000), but failure to defend this zone could open the door to the 0.786 retracement at $64,753 or worse, the full retrace to $52,622.
Compounding the uncertainty, network congestion continues to pressure transaction times and fees, especially during volatility spikes. Traders and institutions seeking faster confirmation may benefit from acceleration services to avoid critical delays during times of stress.
To help mitigate transaction bottlenecks during peak periods, a BTC accelerator Like fujn.com offers a Bitcoin transaction accelerator service for users who need faster confirmation times. This becomes especially valuable during mempool congestion, which often spikes alongside macro-driven volatility and sell-offs.
As technicals and fundamentals intertwine, keep an eye on both the chart and the mempool.
#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
#btcusd - bitcoin
comment: The move I was writing and have been expecting for multiple weeks started today and 75k is the target. I won’t repeat all of it. Chart is clear and now it’s on bears to make meaningful lower lows. Below 70k you will likely see some panic.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 90k
bull case: Bulls tried and failed under 90000. Now their last hope is to keep it above 75000 or risk going down to 70000 or below. I absolutely have nothing for them besides praying that 75000 holds.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments now and the chart is clear as day. Would not be the first time a market would do the opposite of what’s expected but you will not make money in the long run if you only bet on the low probability things happen. Maybe you can but you have to be S-Tier trader amongst traders. Much easier to follow the trend here. 75000 was my big target and I hope we crash to 69000.
Invalidation is above 90k.
short term: Full bear for 75000 or lower.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. It’s happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now it’s very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short.
chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.
Bitcoin: 76K Test Watch For Reversal.Bitcoin has broken the 81,500 minor support and is now in the process of testing the recent swing low 78K to 76K AREA. With the lower high structure at the 88K area (see arrow) in place, a lower low is likely to follow in the coming week. The question is how much lower? One reasonable estimate is a test of 73K (the previous all time high before November). The current area between 79 and 76K does present a buying opportunity on multiple time horizons (investment, swing trades, day trades) but the key to timing this WAITING for confirmation.
From the investing perspective, this is an attractive low because this may establish a reversal formation (double bottom) which may be the bottom of Wave 4. IF this turns out to be true, Wave 5 can potentially begin here. Price can probe as far as 64K before overlapping with Wave 1 of this impulse. Stepping into this our placing a limit order at a lower price is reasonable, but managing risk on this time horizon has a lot to do with your sizing strategy (I have explained this on many streams). Keep in mind price can BREAK and test 73K or lower and you must consider that possibility into your sizing strategy.
As far as swing trades, its the same idea except this is where a defined risk (stop) and profit objective has to be assigned (Trade Scanner Pro shines here). While the level is ideal for a double bottom or failed low (see illustration), there is NO confirmation. So it is still highly risky to step into this, especially in light of the stock market situation, etc. Wait for a bullish pin bar, engulfing candle, etc. You can define risk from there and utilize at least a 2:1 or greater profit objective.
For day trades, its the same process just on smaller time frames, (1 min to 15 min). Just on the day trade time frame, at this time, SHORTS can still be attractive on minor retracements because momentum on these time frames is CLEARLY bearish. If 79K breaks, there is a greater chance momentum continues toward the 76K AREA low.
I realize there must be some news catalyst in play to spark such a move. DO NOT react to the news, this is often a mistake. It doesn't matter what it is because this is a game of recognizing herd mentality behavior and identifying potential opportunities in this context. You want to anticipate an inflection point, WAIT for price behavior to confirm. At that point you can identify risk, and profit expectations. THIS is a MORE objective process compared to "thinking" you know how the news will affect a market. Keep decision making as simple as the "IF this, then that" framework which gives you a more accurate view of market intent since it encourages a more passive view rather than asserting your own irrelevant opinions.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.