Short trade
5min TF entry
🟥 Sellside Trade Log
📉 Pair: BTC/USD
🏷️ Type: Intraday | NY Session PM
🧠 Setup: Breakout (Downside)
📅 Date: Tuesday, 13th May 2025
🕔 Time: 5:55 PM
🔹 Entry Price: 104,320.89
🔹 Profit Target: 103,710.98 (-0.58%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 104,475.64 (+0.15%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 3.94
🔍 Reasoning:
The sellside breakout trade was initiated following a clean breakdown through local support during the NY PM session. Price action showed strong momentum and follow-through beneath the key structural level, confirming bearish intent. The setup aligned with a downside liquidity run and order flow shift, with stop placement just above the breakout level to minimise risk exposure.
BITCOIN trade ideas
Long trade
🟩 Buyside Trade Log
📈 Pair: BTC/USD
🏷️ Type: Intraday | NY to LND Session AM
🧠 Setup: Breakout
🆔 Trade ID: #BTCUSD-0513A
📅 Date: Tuesday, 13th May 2025
🕦 Time: 11:55 AM
🔹 Entry Price: 101,540
🔹 Profit Target: 104,638.11 (+0.98%)
🔹 Stop Loss: 103,453.78 (-0.16%)
🔹 Risk-Reward Ratio: 6.01
🔍 Reasoning:
Buyside breakout trade taken during the NY to LND session overlap. Price broke cleanly above a key intraday resistance level with strong momentum, confirming structural strength. Order flow supported bullish continuation, and the setup aligned with a broader liquidity run toward the next major high
BTC Pullback Before ATHBTC had a great run and needs to cool off a bit before further continuation to the upside. I suspect a retracement to the ~101k .618 fib, which will act as strong support. If we lose this level, I predict that we fill the FVG and put in a higher low around ~97-98k. After that, we're off to the races; expect to see a new ATH for BTC.
BTC Testing Red Resistance – Potential Breakout Ahead!🚀 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Testing Red Resistance – Potential Breakout Ahead! 📈
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently testing the red resistance zone. A potential breakout could be coming soon, and we might see a new all-time high (ATH)! 🔥
Let’s watch this breakout closely! 💼💸
Bitcoin remains fluctuating at a high levelThe overall market trend is largely in line with my analysis chart. Today, the Bitcoin market shows a pattern of high-level fluctuations and a slight decline. The RSI index is 40.47, having retreated from the overbought area, indicating short-term pullback pressure. However, although the momentum of the MACD indicator has weakened, it still maintains a bullish trend.Moreover, the price is far above both the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average, and the medium- and long-term upward channel remains intact, with the overall market in a strong bullish structure.
The operation suggestion is mainly to go long on the pullback, and patiently wait to enter the market at the key position.👉👉👉
BTCUSD Trading Strategy
buy @ 103000-103200
sl 101000
tp 104200-104500
If you think the analysis is helpful to you, you can give a thumbs-up to show your support. If you have different opinions, you can leave your thoughts in the comments. Thank you!👉👉👉
2 Charts in Monthly Time FrameThere’s a common misconception when it comes to the relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin — and it's time to take a deeper look.
While the short-term movements of DXY can create temporary pressure on Bitcoin, the broader correlation tells a different story. If you zoom out and analyze the larger structure, an interesting pattern begins to emerge.
Historically, when DXY enters a major rally within a wide-ranging diametric formation, Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily decline — in fact, it often follows the trend with a slight delay. This lag can vary between one to two months, but the eventual upward momentum in Bitcoin frequently aligns with DXY strength over extended periods.
So before drawing conclusions based on daily fluctuations, take a step back — compare the macro charts, connect the dots, and you'll start to see a bigger, more nuanced picture.
BTCUSD BULLISH CHART PATTERNHere I Created This BTCUSD Chart Analysis
Pair : BTCUSD (BITCOIN)
Timeframe: 15 - Minutes
Pattern: Parallel Channel
Momentum: Bullish/ Buy
Entry Level : BUY 103200
Support zone : 104800
Target Will Be : 104200
Disclaimer : This signal is based on personal analysis for learning purposes. Trade at your own risk and always use proper risk management.
BTC/USD:Range tradingSince April, BTC/USD has bottomed out and rebounded after hitting the vicinity of 74,500 US dollars twice. Currently, the price has strongly broken through the 100,000 US dollars mark. By observing its upward trend, a regular rhythm of "sharp rise + sideways movement" is evident — after each substantial rally, there is a period of sideways consolidation. Based on the current market conditions, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of selling high and buying low within the range of 102,000-105,000 US dollars to seize the band trading opportunities.
BTC/USD
buy@101500-102500
tp:105000-106000
sell@104500-105500
tp:103000-102000
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
BTC/USD – Major Resistance Holding | Will This Lead to a Deep PuBitcoin is currently testing a strong supply zone near $104,000, as shown on the 4H chart. This zone has rejected price several times, suggesting institutional selling interest.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Zone: $103,800 – $104,500 (supply zone)
First Support: $91,916 (previous range high)
Major Support Zone: $82,829 – $83,547 (confluence of historical resistance and visible demand)
Demand Zone Below: $76,800 – $82,800 (strong bullish base)
Analysis:
Price is consolidating near the resistance, forming potential distribution.
A break below $100K could trigger a liquidity sweep toward $91,916.
If momentum builds on the downside, expect buyers to step in near FWB:83K - GETTEX:82K , the next high-probability demand zone.
Red arrows mark likely pullback zones if sellers dominate.
Events Ahead:
Upcoming US economic news (highlighted with icons) may trigger volatility.
Watch for volume spikes and bearish confirmation candles on lower timeframes before entering shorts.
Trading Plan:
Short Idea: Look for rejection patterns below $104K with targets at $91.9K and $83K.
Long Setup: Wait for bullish price action near GETTEX:82K demand zone.
BTC/USD parallel channel marked by two black trendlines.1. Trend Analysis:
The chart shows an upward channel indicating a bullish trend.
Price is moving within a parallel channel marked by two black trendlines.
2. Trade Setup:
A clear entry and target zone is illustrated.
Entry Zone (green box): This is where the trader considers entering a long position.
Target Zone (green): This is the expected price level where profits might be taken.
3. Historical Move:
A highlighted section from April shows a previous bullish breakout (labeled with "BOS" - Break of Structure).
A 19.23% rise is noted during that move.
4. Current Price:
At the top, it shows the price at around $101,884.73, though the actual market might differ now.
The chart is timestamped as viewed around 3:20 AM local time (bottom right corner).
5. Chart Tools and Features:
Indicators, drawing tools, and various TradingView functions like Pine Editor and Strategy Tester are visible.
BTCUSD Technical Analysis.This chart appears to be a technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on the BITSTAMP exchange, using a 1-hour timeframe.
Key Observations:
1. Current Price and Drop: The price is shown at around 101,661 USD, experiencing a sharp decline of approximately 2.37%.
2. Price Target: The chart indicates a target level of around 103,000 USD, suggesting a potential recovery or rebound.
3. Chart Pattern: The sharp drop followed by a possible upward movement (zigzag arrow) suggests a potential bullish correction after a sell-off.
4. Bollinger Bands: The blue bands indicate volatility. The current drop has moved significantly below the lower band, which might indicate an oversold condition.
5. Support and Resistance: The highlighted rectangular areas denote resistance and support zones, with the lower box around 103,000 acting as a potential resistance if the price recovers.
Would you like an analysis of potential trading strategies based on this chart?
(BTC/USD) Short Trade Setup: Key Resistance Rejection with Targe1. Entry Point: 104,855
This is where the trader plans to enter a short position (sell).
Price is slightly below this level at the moment (103,775).
2. Stop-Loss Zone: ~104,807
Highlighted in purple above the entry.
Indicates where the trader will exit if the market moves against them to limit losses.
3. Resistance Point: 103,086
This level has been tested multiple times and may act as a ceiling for prices.
If broken and held, it might invalidate the short setup.
4. Target Point: 93,159
This is the take-profit level for the short trade.
Represents a drop of approximately -10.76% from the entry point.
5. Trend Analysis:
The chart shows an uptrend leading into a potential distribution or topping pattern near the resistance zone.
A potential bearish move is anticipated, hence the short strategy.
6. Support Zones:
Highlighted in purple near the target area (around 93,159).
Historically strong buying areas.
Interpretation:
The trader expects the current resistance level to hold, prompting a downward correction toward the target zone at 93,159. If price moves above 104,807, the setup is invalidated, hence the stop-loss placement.
Ethereum and the Pectra Upgrade: ETH Growth PotentialEthereum is approaching a significant upgrade called Pectra, which, according to analysts at Trenovia Group, could become a major catalyst for ETH’s price appreciation—especially if network activity continues to rise.
What Does Pectra Bring?
Pectra continues Ethereum’s path toward greater technological maturity. The upgrade introduces enhancements to the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM), optimizes validator coordination, and strengthens smart contract security. As Trenovia Group highlights, such developments are essential to the platform's long-term competitiveness and stability.
Potential Impact on ETH Price
Based on Trenovia Group’s internal analysis, ETH could strengthen after the Pectra upgrade, assuming a rise in network engagement. Past events, such as The Merge, have historically driven price momentum. However, sustained growth depends on actual increases in user activity, transaction volumes, and new project deployments.
Network Activity as a Growth Indicator
Network usage is one of the most critical metrics tracked by Trenovia Group. A surge in active wallets, decentralized applications (dApps), and DeFi platforms often translates to higher demand for ETH. These indicators are at the core of our investment strategies and client advisory services.
Trenovia Group’s Position
As a company focused on digital asset analytics and blockchain innovation, Trenovia Group views Pectra as a strategically important upgrade. It further solidifies Ethereum’s role in decentralized finance and Web3. We will continue to deliver in-depth market insights and recommendations as the network evolves.
Conclusion
Ethereum is entering a new phase of development. Should the Pectra upgrade lead to a measurable increase in network activity, Trenovia Group anticipates a favorable environment for ETH growth, reaffirming its position as a leader in the crypto market.
BTCUSD ChoCh + FVG Rejection = Drop Incoming🧠 Smart Money Concepts | BTCUSD 1H Breakdown
Here’s a crystal-clear Smart Money setup on Bitcoin that screams bearish intent. The wedge was a trap, the ChoCh confirmed the flip, and now price is reaching back into a Fair Value Gap that’s likely to reject hard.
Let’s dissect the setup:
🧱 1. Structure: Rising Wedge + ChoCh
Bitcoin climbed with a grinding structure inside a rising wedge — classic liquidity trap.
Smart Money lured in longs, then snapped structure (ChoCh) at ~102,700 — that’s your reversal confirmation.
📉 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Rejection Zone
After the ChoCh, price retraced into a juicy FVG zone around 103,219 – 103,913 —
right below a Strong High at 105,900. Inducement bait for breakout traders.
That’s premium pricing in a bearish environment = high-probability short.
🎯 3. Liquidity Target: Weak Low + Sell Side Sweep
Price is eyeing the Weak Low at 99,114, and below that sits the real magnet:
Sell Side Liquidity at ~98,800. That’s your ultimate draw.
📐 4. Trade Idea (R:R Approx. 3.5:1)
📍 Entry Zone: 103,200–103,900 (FVG zone)
❌ SL: Above Strong High @ 106,000
✅ TP1: Weak Low at 99,114
🏁 TP2: Sell Side Liquidity @ ~98,800
🧩 Confluences Checklist:
✅ Rising Wedge Trap
✅ ChoCh Confirmed
✅ FVG in Premium Zone
✅ Bearish Order Flow
✅ Weak Low + Sell Side as Target
⚠️ Caution:
Don’t short blindly. Wait for reaction in the FVG zone — ideally a rejection wick or lower timeframe BOS.
If price closes above the Strong High — setup is invalidated.
📊 Summary:
This BTCUSD setup is dripping with manipulation. Smart Money engineered a wedge, flipped structure, and is now likely to distribute before the next leg down.
Stay sharp. Trade with the big players, not against them.
💬 Type “🚨 BTC Short Alert” in the comments if you caught this setup too.
📉 Follow @ChartNinjas88 for more SMC alpha and sniper setups.
👀 Tag a fellow trader who thinks wedges always break upward 😂
Bitcoin the Big Bearish TrapIn my opinion we are forming an extended right shoulder on the weekly
1 Scenario: It's expected to see an impulse to 107-112k area but I wouldn't buy spot/long btc in here under any circumstance.
Based on weekly RSI, we might top somewhere there, or sooner
2 Scenario: We don't go above 100k and start a sudden move down, as SPX just retested it's previous highs and a retrace is expected as well.
Regarding Altcoins, if btc goes above 115k, it's worth the risk with proper management but not sooner, or you risk being the exit liquidity in a very big downward move.
Or, btc retraces to sub 80k and we have one more leg left of 20-30% on alts before doom
Bitcoin Forecast: May 2025 OutlookMay 2025 has marked a strong upward trend for Bitcoin, with the leading cryptocurrency steadily trading in the $100,000–$105,000 range and hitting multi-month highs. This growth has been largely fueled by active accumulation from institutional investors, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs), reinforcing Bitcoin’s growing integration into the traditional financial system.
Institutional Demand as a Key Driver
A major factor behind Bitcoin’s recent surge is the increasing flow of capital from institutional investors. Large ETFs, such as those managed by BlackRock and Fidelity, have expanded their positions in BTC, sending a strong signal of confidence from established financial institutions. This has further boosted interest from retail investors and strengthened the overall bullish momentum.
Macroeconomic Context
Another significant influence is the market's anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. A more dovish monetary policy stance would make riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, more attractive, encouraging further investment in Bitcoin.
While the Fed is expected to make a rate decision in June, markets tend to price in such moves early, which is already being reflected in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Forecast: How Much Could Bitcoin Be Worth by End of May?
Given the current momentum and positive market sentiment, analysts suggest that Bitcoin could continue its ascent. Optimistic forecasts predict that BTC might reach $120,000–$130,000 by the end of the month, provided macroeconomic conditions remain favorable. Still, the inherent volatility of the crypto market means potential pullbacks should not be ruled out.
Conclusion
May 2025 could prove to be a pivotal month for Bitcoin. Increased institutional participation, supportive macroeconomic signals, and favorable technical indicators are all contributing to its ongoing rally. If the current trend continues, Bitcoin could set new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
BTC CONSOLIDATESBitcoin is taking a breather just below the $106,099 resistance level, after a strong rally from sub-$90K levels in April. Yesterday’s candle showed some indecision, which makes sense given the proximity to the key psychological milestone of $100,000 and the well-defined horizontal resistance between $106K and $109,358. This area previously marked the top of the February range and is likely to be heavily contested.
Price is comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which are rising and signaling trend strength. Volume has decreased slightly during this consolidation phase, a normal occurrence after a powerful breakout, but we’ll want to see volume pick back up if Bitcoin makes a run at the highs.
If bulls can clear $106K cleanly with conviction, $109,358 is the final local resistance before we enter open skies and potential new highs. On the downside, $99,517 now serves as the first line of support, and a deeper pullback could retest the $92,817 level — the site of the previous breakout.
The structure remains bullish, but some cooling or consolidation here would be healthy, especially after such an aggressive move.
Bitcoin is still following 2017 run. Surprising things to see
As many of you know, I have been referring This cycle of Bitcoin to that of the 2013 ->2017 bull run. And while PA has Fallen off and below the Fractal itself, we do still have one Very Major thing to see and it is a Good one.
So, the chart above has an arrow. This is pointing to Sep, Oct, Nov 2024.
See how PA pushed up to the "Neckline" of the Range and got rejected for 2 weeks.
A Red then Green Candles, on or below that "Neckline" and then Off it went.
We are currently just below the "Neckline" of this Range and we are currently printing a Red candle. It is early days but maybe we will repeat the same pattern.
There are reasons that I have explained in an earlier post today, that point towards a possible Red candle this week.
The other thing I want to show you on this subject is the MACD
This is a Daily MACD ( the main chart being Weekly) But while the actual PA of the MACD is different, I want you to see the Histogram. The Histogram shows us the % Difference between the MACD line ( yellow) and its Signal line ( Red)
Have a look at the the similarity the histogram pattern in 2024 ( arrow ) compared to this period Now.
The Large green Climb from a Low, the fall, the new smaller climb, the drop to Red and then a push higher.
OK, so the scale is different but, to me, it shows a similar pattern to the previous end of Ranging period.
We need to see if this pays out. If so, we will see a Red Histogram for a while..
This ties in with the ideas presented above on the PA patterns.
But overall this cycle, we do seem to be repeating patterns in a broad sense, with a larger scale currently. The larger scale of thispossible Red Histogram also plays into the idea mentioned at the end of this post.
So , what is the connection to the 2013 - 2017 Cycle.
Look at the upper trendline that has rejected PA since 2024. This is an OLD line of resistance from before 2017...
Lets look at a zoomed out chart
Look at that Arrow on the Left and that trend line.
It is the SAME LINE - Not only that, it rejected PA twice in late 2016 and 2017, before PA broke through and went on to reach a new ATH
So, Having seen this, I am happy to believe that we ARE Still following that 2013 -> 2017 Cycle pattern.
True, PA has fallen below the Fractel but we do seem to be repeating the Trend line Rejection, Dip, Rejection and........
You can also see how this same trend line, once crossed, is extremely strong support - infact we did not drop back below until July 2022, after another ATH
BUT, as ever, I look to BOTH sides and there is a chance we may see a stiffer rejection, IF we get rejected here again.
Should events dictate a further Drop in PA, we may see PA return to the next trend line below, around 82K. ( remember that Red Histogram pattern I mentioned earlier )
While this would Scare many, it would still play into the pattern we have been seeing.
2024 saw 3 major Rejections off its Neckline.
We have had 2 so far in 2025 and we are there right now, waiting to see what happens, with a RED candle. A Drop back to 82K would also reset the Daily MACD very nicely.
I remain Cautious and Bullish
what ever happens in the short term, I have little doubt about further pushes higher, maybe a LOT higher