BTC 60kAround 60k we will go into bullrun. I am using the 0.5% of a decending triangle pattern to predict this. This happened on a smaller scale back last bullrun.
BITCOIN trade ideas
BTCUSD I am a little worriedGuys! Looking at monthly TF I am a little bit worried. I don't want to be hyped. Also MACD in monthly showing sign of bullish momentum weakness... To me, I will rather keep cash for now and don't fomo buy the deep concept.
Buy the dip also needs strategy , not just blindly buy the dip or DCA
Bitcoin at Critical Support โ Will It Hold or Break? Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Forecast โ Potential Breakdown Ahead?
Key Observations:
๐ Strong Support Retest: Bitcoin is currently testing a major support zone around $81,350 - $81,000.
๐ Bearish Momentum: The price has been in a steady downtrend, struggling to hold above key moving averages.
๐ Breakdown Potential: If Bitcoin fails to hold this support, we could see further downside towards $80,046, and possibly as low as $77,685.
Possible Scenarios:
๐ด Bearish Case: A clear break below $81,000 could accelerate selling, leading to a drop towards $80,000 or lower.
๐ข Bullish Case: If BTC holds this support and forms a reversal pattern, we might see a bounce back towards $83,000+.
โ ๏ธ Watch for confirmation! A breakdown could trigger strong bearish momentum! ๐จ
Whatโs your outlook for BTC? Will it hold or break down further? Let me know in the comments! ๐๐ฅ
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction
HolderStat | BTC daily digestBitcoin price today ~ FWB:83K (-5% 24h). BTC futures open interest down ~7%, funding +0.006% ๐
Wider market ๐: Altcoins fell too (ETH -6%, SOL -12%). Sentiment is split โ some shout #BuyTheDip, others urge caution.
๐ฐ CoinDesk: Tariff news spooked crypto markets, fueling BTCโs drop. Meanwhile, whales (big holders) bought this dip ๐ณ โ a bullish sign.
๐ Analysis: Traders remain cautious, but whale dip-buying shows big players bullish. Expect crypto bulls ๐ and bears ๐ป to battle it out for now.
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Always DYOR! ๐ฌ
Dรฉjร Vu, BTC's Historical Pattern EncoreIt is possible the pattern that shaped in late 2020 and 2021 might repeat again.
Everything just looks like the previous main high which is selected with the red square in the left of chart.
There is no guarantee even if it happens - movement and ratios of movement can be different.
Dรฉjร vu on the charts isn't by chance.
BTCUSD โ April 2025 Downside ReportTheme: Distribution, Crowded Longs, and Imminent Breakdown
โข Bitcoin is showing signs of late-stage distribution after a failed breakout and prolonged consolidation.
โข Sentiment remains bullish, but price has stalled โ a dangerous divergence.
โข The market is heavily one-sided: long exposure is extreme, while net long positioning has quietly begun to unwind.
โข Institutions are pulling back exposure, while retail is still stuck in euphoric bias from previous highs.
โข This is a classic case of positioning mismatch, where downside risk builds beneath stagnant price action.
โธป
Bias: Bearish
โข Market structure is weakening โ lower highs and failed momentum indicate sellers are regaining control.
โข Positioning data reveals a crowded trade with little fuel left to push higher.
โข Reflexivity kicks in as participants begin exiting longs en masse, creating liquidity voids beneath the current range.
โข The longer the market holds in this fragile zone, the more violent the eventual release is likely to be.
โธป
Trade Idea: Fade the Retest
โข Look for a failed rally into prior rejection zones โ signs of exhaustion or reversal patterns signal opportunity.
โข Enter short on confirmation of weakness, using a tactical stop just above the structure break.
โข Ride the move lower as trapped longs are forced to unwind.
โข Stay patient โ the breakdown may come fast and sharp once emotional pressure unwinds.
This is a strategy built on imbalance: the crowd wants higher, but the structure and positioning say lower.
Tariff Tensions, Dollar Dips & Goldโs Record Rally!"As of April 2, 2025, the financial markets have been significantly influenced by recent economic data releases and geopolitical developments, particularly concerning the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), gold (XAU/USD), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD).โ
1. Key Economic Data Reports and Their Impact:
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY has experienced fluctuations due to recent economic indicators and policy announcements. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported softer figures, indicating a slight cooling in the labor market. Additionally, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity. These reports have contributed to a marginal decline in the DXY, which decreased by 0.02% to 104.2418 on April 2 .โFinancial TimesTrading Economics
Gold (XAU/USD): Gold prices have surged to record highs, nearing $3,150 per ounce. This increase is largely driven by investor concerns over potential economic slowdowns and uncertainties surrounding impending tariff announcements by President Trump . The anticipation of these tariffs has led investors to seek safe-haven assets, bolstering demand for gold.โ
Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, trading above $84,000 with a nearly 2% gain in the past 24 hours . This rebound follows weeks of price weakness and is occurring amid the backdrop of upcoming tariff announcements, which have introduced volatility into the cryptocurrency markets.โ
2. Implications of the Data Reports:
Labor Market and Manufacturing Data: The softer JOLTS figures and the ISM manufacturing slowdown suggest a potential deceleration in economic growth. These indicators may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, potentially impacting interest rates and, consequently, the strength of the U.S. dollar.โThe Guardian+3EWF Pro+3KuCoin+3
Tariff Announcements: The anticipation of new tariffs has heightened market uncertainty. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as they could have significant implications for international trade relations and economic stability. Such uncertainties often lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and can introduce volatility into both traditional and digital asset markets.
3. Major Contributors to Recent Market Movements:
Tariff Uncertainty: President Trump's impending announcement of new tariffs has been a primary driver of recent market volatility. The potential for widespread tariffs has led to concerns about a global economic slowdown, prompting shifts in investor sentiment .โ
Investor Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has led investors to seek refuge in assets perceived as safe havens, such as gold. This shift has contributed to the significant rise in gold prices.
Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics: While Bitcoin has faced headwinds from global trade tensions, it has also shown resilience. Analysts suggest that traders may be overstating the impact of the U.S.-led tariff war on Bitcoin's price, indicating that other factors, such as market sentiment and technological developments, also play crucial roles .โ
In summary, the recent economic data releases and the anticipation of new tariffs have collectively influenced the DXY, gold, and Bitcoin markets. Investors are advised to monitor these developments closely, as they have the potential to significantly impact market dynamics in the near term.
BULLISH ON BTC This image illustrates the Bitcoin adoption curve, dividing the adoption process into four main phases:
1 . Early Adopters
2 . Early Majority
3 . Late Majority
4 . Laggards
The arrow in the image indicates that we are now at the beginning of the "Early Majority" phase. This means Bitcoin is no longer limited to a small group of enthusiasts and risk-takers but is starting to gain broader adoption among regular users and businesses.
The opportunity is still there, but we are gradually moving away from the early stages...
So, who will benefit from the next phase?
BTCUSD on a ShortHere is an analysis of BTCUSD. The HTF is on a Impulsive Bearish momentum. Leaving the MTF on a Correction. However, the correction line is broken activating the 90% rule pattern to the Downside. Overall, BTCUSD is selling
BTC TRIANGLEThe daily Bitcoin chart is taking shape inside a symmetrical triangle, formed by a clear series of lower highs and higher lows since the local top in early March. These converging diagonal support and resistance lines are setting up for a breakout โ or breakdown โ in the coming days or weeks. Price is currently squeezing toward the apex, hovering just below the key 50-day moving average.
This kind of coiling price action often precedes a large move. The 200-day moving average is currently acting as resistance, while the 50 MA looms above as resistance as well. A break of the downtrend line would likely flip market sentiment more bullish, especially if confirmed with strong volume. Conversely, a drop below the rising trendline would invalidate the current series of higher lows and could usher in a deeper retracement.
Keep an eye on volume โ the move out of this structure could be fast and violent.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoinGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Textbook breakout below the bear flag and market is likely on itโs way testing previous lows below 80000. My target 75000 or even 70000 remain the same. What would bulls need to stop this? I highly doubt they can produce a bull surprise above 90000, so if they would go sideways above 80000 for the next 1-3 days, it could have been enough to stop the selling and keep the trading range 80000 - 89000 alive for some more.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 70k - 90k
bull case: Only chance for bulls I see here is going sideways and stopping the selling above 80000. Otherwise I donโt have anything for them. They have touched the bear trend line 3 times now and failed.
Did not change much to last week since market has not invalidated anything of it.
Invalidation is below 70k.
bear case: Bears need to close the bull gap down to 73800, no ifs or buts. If they do not create better selling pressure next week and close a daily bar below 80k, market has likely turned more neutral again and both sides have equal odds of the next impulse.
Invalidation is above 94k.
short term: Neutral. Need strong selling momentum again for me to join this.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-02-23: 75000 is still my biggest target for 2025. Itโs happening. 70k/75k and then I expect a bigger bounce first. Then we will see if we can go lower or not. For now itโs very low probability that the big bull trend line from 2023-10 breaks anytime soon.
current swing trade: Short since 85000. Stop is 89000 no matter where you go short here.
chart update: Removed one minor broken bear trend line.
(BTC) bitcoin "the case for bitcoin"Where is bitcoin going to be during this 2025 year. The image shows a blank canvas. The drawing untold, unknown for now? Where will the price move and how long will it take to move through the pattern, bearish? bullish? neutral? fire? ice? greener pastures? The graph showing what is being seen tends to see a rise in price once the price moves past the crossing of the blue lines but the purple and pink dotted lines are facing down with no indication that the price is moving neutrally in a recovery effort.
Price moved up as I said. Now it's about it's next courseThere are more than one potential configurations of this market structure
This next move should help guide us as to how the Highs and Lows of this market structure is set to be
What matters is that price went up, so we are in profit. Now it's about whether we close or hold...keep in mind that most traders are not profitable, we decide how profitable we want to be
BTCUSD potential bullish trade ideaWe may see BTCUSD bullish push from the marked demand zone. Trade cautiously.
BITCOIN Say goodbye to low prices if this level breaks. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has turned sideways the past couple of days following the strong bullish reaction on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). The reason it that it is about to face the most common Resistance of this Cycle, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Within the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle, BTC always started its new rally near or on the 1W MA50 but the most important development to confirm that was a break above the 1D MA50. On both previous correction/ accumulation phases, the 1D MA50 break coincided with a 0.618 Fibonacci retracement break.
The bottom of each phase is formed when the 1W MA50 gets tested on a Double Bottom, which we've had on March 11 2025, September 06 2024 and September 11 2023. Among those fractals, their 1D RSI patterns post identical sequences.
As a result, once the price breaks above the 1D MA50, we can claim that the most optimal buy opportunity of the past 6 months will cease to exist and then you'll have to chase a rally all the way to at least a +97% rise (late 2023 rally, the late 2024 was even stronger at +106%). That gives us a minimum target estimate of $150000.
Do you think that would be the case? Break above the 1D MA50 and off to the races with no looking back? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC Mid-Term Outlook: Key Levels & Wave StructureAs long as March lows hold, there remains a technical possibility for one more wave up toward the 130K resistance zone. However, given the corrective three-wave structure of the recovery (rather than an impulsive five-wave move), I am now leaning toward the mid-term top being in place at January highs.
If price remains below last weekโs high, my operative scenario favors one more leg down to the 64Kโ55Kโ51K macro support zone. If the downside scenario unfolds, it would still be technically valid for the entire corrective wave (2) to complete within the support zone mentioned, especially considering the underlying fundamental strength of the asset.
Should price break above last weekโs high in the coming weeks, the odds shift in favor of a renewed uptrend, potentially reclaiming ATH and targeting 130K.
The super-macro structure that I'm following as an operative wave count, assumes multi-decades bullish cycle, with the next long-term expansion phase expected once price establishes a firm bottom in the discussed support zone:
Wishing you successful trading & investing decisions. Thank you for your attention!
PS: The wave structure of BTC, proposed in March 2024 idea, has fulfilled itself:
sell on BTCBTC is reacting to trendline and we proposed a short position toward specified tp
a price action pattern for tp setting used
let see market reaction
BITCOIN | 4H | KEY POINTS Hey traders, what's up
I've marked the key levels for Bitcoin on the chart. Right now, it's holding within the 4-hour supply and demand zone. But if this level breaks, I expect Bitcoin to drop all the way down to around $78K.
For spot buyers, thereโs no real risk at the moment. But if you're trading on margin and currently in the red, be extra cautious.
The market will liquidate you first, then move on its way.
Big thanks to everyone supporting my analysis with likes
I will provide continuous updates under this analysis.
BTCUSD: Such consolidations end up very well for Bitcoin.Bitcoin just turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.578, MACD = -918.200, ADX = 29.021) and with 1W still neutral, we are again on strong long term buy levels. Today's chart is yet another illustration of the market dynamics and the similarities with the previous Cycle. The market is well on its way towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension target, which now translates to $175,000. Unless the 1W MA50 support breaks, BTC is a buy opportunity on every pullback.
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We need to hold the support lines to remain bullishBut a retest of those prices will be bullish. It might be a good place to set a buy if you're trading the type. dont sure me if it dumps tho. gl.
BITCOIN Is it owed a parabolic rally based on the GoldBTC ratio?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading on a highly structured manner within a Channel Up for the entirety of its Bull Cycle since the November 2022 bottom. We've discussed before how this is the smoothest Cycle of all.
What we didn't bring into the mix before was the Gold/BTC ratio (black trend-line), naturally negatively correlated to Bitcoin, which has been trading within a Channel Down since its January 2023 Top. As you can see it posts the same pattern on every Cycle: Channel Down (blue), followed by its bearish break-out and a huge drop (red ellipse) that prices the Bull Cycle Top on BTC.
So far every BTC Cycle had its parabolic rally (green ellipse) when the Gold/BTC ratio broke downwards. Does the market owe one this time also? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin (BTC): Another Buying Push Been Suppressed By Sellers!Weekends were pretty bloody and so is Monday. We are seeing a strong dominance of sellers where one last push of the month has been suppressed by sellers with strong dominance.
Price is again below both EMAs and we think this might be the start of the movement toward our major target zone!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin: tariffs and inflationFor one more week investors were not happy with developments over trade tariffs and inflation expectations. The US equity markets finished the week in red, and BTC was just following the general sentiment. During the first half of the week, BTC was trying to reach higher grounds, above the $ 88K, however, the new stories regarding tariffs and especially Friday's University of Michigan inflation expectation sentiment of US consumers, brought another sell-off day. The BTC ended the week at the level of $82,4K.
The RSI tried to breach the 50 level in order to start a path toward the overbought market side, however, the indicator ended the week at the level of 44. At this moment, it is questionable whether the market is eyeing the oversold market side for one more time. It is more likely that the investors are uncertain which side to trade. Significant developments are also with MA50 and MA200 lines, which are converging toward each other for some time now, pointing to a probability of a cross within a few weeks from now. This time, it will be a so-called dead cross, implying a BTCs potential for further decrease in value.
Current charts are showing a potential for BTC to move toward both sides during the week ahead. On an upside, there is some probability for the levels above $85K, but not higher from $86K. On the opposite side, the support line at $80K might easily be the first stop of BTC in the week ahead. However, this is not a long term significant level, so in case that $80K is reached, the BTC will not spend too much time testing it. It should be considered that NFP and unemployment data for the US will be posted, so volatility will most probably continue also in the week ahead.
