BITCOIN CME FORCASTIf CRYPTOCAP:BTC Dropped 🐻 Below $80k then Expect a good Bounce from $78k.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC Buy 🦖 Limit Orders
● $80500
● $78k
BTCUSDJ2025 trade ideas
Will the bitcoin bloodbath send prices below its 200-day SMA?Currently lower for a sixth day, bitcoin futures have just tested the 200-day average for the first time this year. This clearly marks a pivotal moment for bulls and bears over the near term, but we also have to factor in the higher timeframes.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bitcoin Futures in Freefall !!Bitcoin Futures in Freefall: Navigating the Stormy Crypto Seas
As of February 27, 2025, Bitcoin futures have been experiencing significant volatility, reflecting the broader trends in the cryptocurrency market. The current price of Bitcoin futures on the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) is approximately $84,945, which represents a notable decline from recent highs.
Market Overview
The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure due to a combination of factors, including regulatory uncertainties, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment. Bitcoin, being the flagship cryptocurrency, often sets the tone for the entire market. The recent drop in Bitcoin futures prices can be attributed to several key factors:
Regulatory Concerns: Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide have been tightening their stance on cryptocurrencies. This has led to increased scrutiny and potential regulatory actions, causing uncertainty among investors.
Macroeconomic Factors: The global economic environment, including inflation concerns and interest rate hikes, has impacted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Investors are becoming more cautious, leading to reduced demand for Bitcoin futures.
Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has been bearish, with many investors adopting a risk-off approach. This has resulted in increased selling pressure and lower prices for Bitcoin futures.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin futures have broken several key support levels, indicating a bearish trend. The price has entered a fair value gap (FVG) and is approaching an order block (OB), which could act as a support level. If the price finds support at the order block, there could be a potential reversal or consolidation before any further movement. However, if the price breaks below the order block, it could indicate further downside potential.
Future Outlook
The future outlook for Bitcoin futures remains uncertain, with several potential scenarios:
Regulatory Clarity: If regulatory bodies provide clear guidelines and frameworks for cryptocurrencies, it could boost investor confidence and lead to a recovery in Bitcoin futures prices.
Macroeconomic Stability: Improvements in the global economic environment, such as controlled inflation and stable interest rates, could positively impact risk assets, including Bitcoin futures.
Market Sentiment Shift: A shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook could lead to increased demand for Bitcoin futures and higher prices.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current situation with Bitcoin futures is characterized by significant volatility and uncertainty. Investors should closely monitor regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and market sentiment to make informed decisions. While the short-term outlook may be bearish, there are potential catalysts that could lead to a recovery in the future.
Bitcoin Update: Critical Support & Elliott Wave Levels To WatchBitcoin here is the thing...
1. For now drop is not impulsive, so can be correction
2. 4th wave pullbacks will ideally stabilize near 50/38.2%. Just testing the important zone 77k-85k
3. Old high and unfilled gap are crucial to cause a bounce, otherwise the major high is in
4. You don't want to see this fourth wave breaking the lowest base channel line, otherwise top is in.
5. Bullish resumption for wave 5 when/if 93700 overlaps
6. This market wont go up unless risk-on is back
GH
BTCUSDT Futures Pick your poison! So long as 84.5k holds I believe we back test the upper CME gap at 93.6k to reject and fill the lower gap. With that being said I believe we head lowerhave short TP's set at 72, 68 and 62k. This matches my usdt.d analysis over the past few weeks since 107k
Bitcoin Is About To Turn Bullish (10X Alert!)It's been 1.5 months since the last low, which happened on the 10th of January. We are potentially looking at a higher low now and the start of a new bullish wave. This is a major development.
There isn't much to go by from the chart, only the fact that trading volume has been higher in previous drops. The total amount of long positions liquidated can also be considered; the market cycle; the fact that the year is 2025 and we are about to enter March.
The Cryptocurrency market will be 100% bullish in March.
Bitcoin will be bullish in March, so it is a possible that we are looking at a higher low on the 2D candle and this candle closes tomorrow.
I am doing, for my people, 10X on this chart setup.
10X is about the limit for our leveraged trades.
I only go to the upper range of the limit when we are really close to the next major market move. We know the next move is bullish and we know we are very close, for this reason we are ready to 'step in the gas', we are ready to go in with full force because Bitcoin (the Cryptocurrency market) is about to embark on a phase of long-term growth.
Now. All growth will not happen in a single week or a single day. This is a long-term process but bottom prices tend to be available only for a matter of days.
Is this really it?
When trading, specially with leverage, there is always high risk.
I can't say for sure if this is it, all we can do is take action, decide what we want to do next. Based on the chart, intuition and experience, we are ready for a new entry, the market will let us know if the timing was right. The market will reward us if timing was right, it will punish us if the timing was wrong.
If we get it right, that's great; enjoy the profits and move on.
If we get it wrong, no need to cry, no need to fight, the market goes down and goes up. We know how much risk we are taking based on the size of the position that we take. If a chart setup breaks down, there is one choice left and one only, try again. We never give up. Success is based on learning from past failures and mistakes. The more often we get it wrong, the more data we have to learn and grow.
The timing is right.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
BTC1!/MBT1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/25BTC1!/MBT1! Day Trade Plan for 02/26/25
📈 90155, 91590
📉 87280, 85850
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
Bitcoin 69K is inevitable!BTC 2 Week chart.
Simple yet convincing with only 3 reliable indicators.
69K is inevitable.
Also filling our remaining CME gap along the way!
Bottom of channel also possible if we get a Black Swan event again.
Confluence of fibs at 78k - 80k, trendline support and CME gapConfluence of fibs at 78k - 80k, trendline support and CME gap
Lord MEDZ Trading Update: BitcoinKey Observations:
Breach of the 60-Day Lookback Zone:
Price has fallen below the previously held demand zone, confirming seller dominance.
This breakdown increases the probability of a deeper retracement toward key Fibonacci and smart money interest levels.
Potential Demand Zones & Fibonacci Levels:
$82,280 - $75,355: This is the first major support area (0.5-0.618 retracement), where we may see a reaction.
$75,000 - $67,500: If weakness persists, price could fill the deeper liquidity void toward the 0.75 retracement level.
Final Support: $57,205 - $54,640: This remains the ultimate level where a full mean reversion move could play out.
Liquidity Hunt & Smart Money Context:
The market is likely sweeping liquidity, trapping late longs before a potential reversal.
Order blocks and imbalance zones suggest that institutional players could step in at lower levels.
Bearish Case: Deeper Drop Incoming?
If GETTEX:82K fails, a move to $75K or even FWB:67K is likely.
Further breakdowns could lead to a full sweep into the $57K region, which aligns with historical liquidity pools.
Bullish Reversal Scenario
If buyers aggressively defend GETTEX:82K -$75K, we could see a strong rebound back toward $90K+.
Any reclaim above the 60-day lookback level (~$90K- GETTEX:92K ) would invalidate the bearish breakdown.
Trading Plan:
Short-term: Watching price action around GETTEX:82K -$75K for a reaction.
Medium-term: If weakness persists, looking for deeper buy opportunities closer to $75K-$67K.
Invalidation: A strong daily close below $75K increases the likelihood of a drop to $57K.
Final Note: The breakdown below the 60-day lookback is a crucial shift in market sentiment. Patience is key—let the liquidity do its job before making aggressive moves.
Stay sharp & trade smart!
– Lord MEDZ
BTS Heading to 74K or Is It Just a Shakeout?Not a pretty picture, is it? I hope it's just a shakeout of weak hands and not truly a breakdown.
The price has clearly closed below significant lows. Only saving grace is that the yesterday low is around 38.2% retracement of the rise from lows of August 2024 (sub 50K level).
Let's hope it reverses for good from here. If not, it's not just #BTC that will fall but majority of cryptos with it.
BTC update#BTC has 2 gaps in CME chart so these 2 should be filled i think that there is 2 scenarios once is rising to catch the small gap and then go down and the other one is go down to catch the big one and then rise to catch the other one !
any way we have to think for bearish in long term and in both scenarios the price will fall under 80K
BTC Mid-Term OutlookBitcoin is struggling to find bullish confluence, and we’re not seeing strong buy pressure at current levels. The nearest significant order blocks are much lower, around $69K, which could act as a magnet if sellers take control.
Adding to the uncertainty, potential tariffs from Trump could shake up the broader market, impacting risk assets like BTC in the short term. Without a strong push from bulls soon, the market will drift lower before any meaningful reversal.
BTC start buying in the green zone been waiting Start Buying when price isn the green zone simple plan
BTC CME MMBM is over If we use data like Market Maker for the purchase, then perhaps we have completed it, now MMSM has worked
We see that December was aсamulation, January - manipulation and February - distribution with the completion and withdrawal of monthly liquidity for January, now we are in the zone of immediate inefficiency, 82-88k + emptiness at 77-80k
I will consider NWOG for 23 feb as resistance and a search for a short entry if the price goes there due to weekly inefficiency
Bitcoin is in precarious position below 92KCME:MBT1! is trying to hold on around 92K levels. If this is breached on the downside, it runs into the risk of falling much lower towards 74K levels.
Keep an eye HODLers!
BTC - Intraday Short.Just opened a short position on BTC, that was entered as the futures markets opened with a sudden influx of liquidity, moving into a 4H Bearish FVG, that should hold and price then turn to continue weekends bearish bias, and by extension, the overall bearish bias in play currently.
Target is the hourly TF's SwL, which would be a good reversal area for price to print a positive week in crypto, however, if price doesn't show any signs of a reversal and a change in bias, we should anticipate the unmitigated Weekly BaG as our HTF target/draw on liquidity.
Trade what we see, not what we think.
Predicting the behavior of cryptocurrency whales and price crashBitcoin price could fall to $77,000 in about a week.
Are you ready for this massive exit by crypto whales? They are trying to fill the gap, usually whales are unpredictable, but it seems like they are trying to show us how dangerous the situation is. I hope you profit from your short positions.
Understanding Volume In TradingVolume is one of the most crucial yet often overlooked aspects of trading. It represents the total number of shares, contracts, or lots traded in a given period and provides insight into the strength of price movements. By analyzing volume effectively, traders can identify trends, confirm breakouts, and detect potential reversals before they happen.
Unlike price action alone, volume adds a critical layer of confirmation. A price move supported by high volume is more likely to be sustainable, while a move on low volume may indicate weakness or manipulation. Institutions, hedge funds, and large market players leave footprints through volume, and understanding these patterns can give traders an edge.
Volume Types 🎯
Volume
Buy/Sell Volume
Delta Volume
Cumulative Delta Volume
Relative Volume
Cumulative Relative Volume
Open Interest
Volume Profile
01. Volume 🔥
In trading, volume refers to the total quantity of assets traded during a specific time frame, whether they are stocks, futures contracts, options, or currencies. It measures the activity level of a security and provides insights into the strength or weakness of price movements.
Key aspects:
Market sentiment: High volume often indicates strong interest in a security and can signal the strength of a price move. Conversely, low volume may suggest a lack of interest and can indicate that price movements may not be sustainable.
Liquidity: High volume generally indicates better liquidity, meaning it is easier to enter and exit positions without significantly impacting the asset’s price. Low volume may lead to higher slippage and greater price volatility.
Volume spikes: Extremely high volume after a prolonged trend may signal the end of that trend (blow-off tops or panic selling bottoms).
Market types: Volume can vary by market type. In stock markets, it is usually reported in shares. In futures and options, it is reported in contracts, while in Forex, it is often measured by tick volume (the number of price changes).
Impact on market orders & liquidity
High Volume = Lower Slippage: Large orders can be executed more efficiently in high-volume environments.
Low Volume = Higher Volatility: Thin order books in low-volume markets can lead to erratic price swings and wider bid-ask spreads.
02. Buy/Sell Volume 💹
Buy volume and sell volume are key metrics that indicate the level of buying and selling activity in a market. They help traders assess the strength of price movements and market sentiment.
Buy Volume
Buy volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded at the ask price (or higher). It occurs when buyers are willing to pay the seller’s asking price, indicating buying pressure and potential bullish sentiment.
How buy volume is measured:
Transactions that execute at the ask price are counted as buy volume.
In some cases, aggressive market orders (where buyers take liquidity) are considered buy volume.
Buy volume is often compared to total volume to determine demand strength.
Sell Volume
Sell volume represents the number of shares, contracts, or lots traded at the bid price (or lower). It occurs when sellers accept the buyer’s bid price, indicating selling pressure and potential bearish sentiment.
How sell volume is measured:
Transactions executed at the bid price are counted as sell volume.
Market sell orders (where sellers take liquidity) contribute to sell volume.
Higher sell volume relative to buy volume suggests downward price pressure.
03. Delta Volume ✨
Delta Volume (often referred to as Volume Delta) is a key order flow metric that measures the difference between buy volume and sell volume over a given period.
Calculation
Delta Volume is defined as: Delta Volume = Buy Volume − Sell Volume
Where:
Buy Volume is the total volume transacted at the ask price (aggressive buying).
Sell Volume is the total volume transacted at the bid price (aggressive selling).
Interpretation
Positive Delta (Buy Volume > Sell Volume): Indicates more aggressive buying, suggesting bullish momentum.
Negative Delta (Sell Volume > Buy Volume): Indicates more aggressive selling, suggesting bearish momentum.
Near Zero Delta: Indicates a balance between buyers and sellers, often seen in range-bound markets.
04. Cumulative Delta Volume ⚡
Cumulative Delta Volume (CVD) is an advanced order flow metric that tracks the cumulative sum of Delta Volume over time.
Calculation
CVD t =CVD t − 1 + (Buy Volume − Sell Volume)
Where:
Buy Volume = Volume transacted at the ask price (aggressive buying).
Sell Volume = Volume transacted at the bid price (aggressive selling).
CVD*t = Current cumulative delta value.
CVD\*{t-1} = Previous cumulative delta value.
Interpretation
Rising CVD (Positive Delta Accumulation): Buyers are dominating, indicating bullish momentum.
Falling CVD (Negative Delta Accumulation): Sellers are in control, signaling bearish momentum.
Flat or Divergent CVD: A divergence between price and CVD can indicate potential reversals or absorption by large traders.
05. Relative Volume 📉
Relative Volume (RVOL) is a key trading metric that measures current trading volume compared to its historical average over a specified period. It helps traders assess whether a security is experiencing unusual trading activity and provides insights into liquidity, volatility, and potential price movements.
Calculation
Relative Volume is typically expressed as a ratio:
RVOL = Current Volume / Average Volume Over A Given Period
Where:
Current Volume = The total shares/contracts traded in the current period (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute, daily).
Average Volume = The average volume over a past period (e.g., 10-day average, 50-day average).
A higher RVOL (>1) means the security is trading at above-average volume, while a lower RVOL (<1) indicates below-average activity.
Interpretation
RVOL > 2: Indicates significantly higher-than-normal volume, often linked to news events, earnings reports, or breakout trends.
RVOL around 1: Suggests normal trading activity with no unusual volume spikes.
RVOL < 1: Indicates low trading activity, which may lead to weak price movements and lower liquidity.
06. Cumulative Relative Volume 💥
Cumulative Relative Volume (CRVOL) is an advanced volume metric that tracks the total volume traded throughout a session relative to its historical average at the same time of day.
Calculation
Cumulative Relative Volume compares the ongoing total volume at a given point in time to the average cumulative volume at that same time over a historical period.
CRVOL = Cumulative Volume at Time X / Average Cumulative Volume at Time X over N periods
Where:
Cumulative Volume at Time X = The total volume traded from market open up to time X.
Average Cumulative Volume at Time X = The average total volume at that point in time over a selected historical period (e.g., 10 days).
N periods = The number of historical sessions used for comparison.
A CRVOL > 1 indicates higher-than-normal trading activity, while CRVOL < 1 suggests lower-than-average activity.
Interpretation
CRVOL > 1.5: Significantly higher trading activity than usual, often linked to news events, earnings reports, or institutional participation.
CRVOL ≈ 1: Normal trading volume, suggesting typical market conditions.
CRVOL < 0.8: Below-average trading volume, often indicating low liquidity and reduced volatility.
07. Open Interest 📊
Open Interest (OI) is a key metric in derivatives markets (futures and options) that represents the total number of outstanding contracts that have not been settled or closed. It is an important indicator of market activity, liquidity, and trader commitment.
How it works?
Open Interest increases or decreases based on the interaction between buyers and sellers:
OI Increases: When a new buyer and a new seller enter the market, creating a fresh contract.
OI Decreases: When an existing buyer and seller close their positions (either by offsetting trades or expiration).
OI Unchanged: If an existing contract is transferred between traders (one trader closes, another opens an equal position).
Interpretation
Rising OI + Rising Price: Suggests strong buying interest, indicating a bullish trend with conviction.
Rising OI + Falling Price: Indicates strong selling pressure, confirming a bearish trend.
Falling OI + Rising Price: Signals a short-covering rally or weakening trend, as traders close positions.
Falling OI + Falling Price: Suggests a lack of commitment to further declines, indicating potential trend exhaustion.
08. Volume Profile 🎢
Volume Profile is a powerful market analysis tool that plots trading volume at different price levels over a specific period. Unlike traditional volume indicators, which show volume per time interval, Volume Profile reveals where the most buying and selling activity occurred, helping traders identify key support and resistance levels, market structure, and potential price reactions.
Components
Volume Profile is displayed as a histogram on the vertical axis, showing the amount of volume traded at each price level. It is built using tick data or intraday price action and is often calculated for different timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly, or custom sessions).
Key components of Volume Profile include:
Point of Control (POC): The price level where the highest volume was traded, acting as a major support/resistance zone.
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Price areas with heavy trading activity, indicating consolidation zones where price is likely to stabilize.
Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price areas with little trading activity, often leading to fast price movements as there is little resistance or support.
Value Area (VA): The price range where 70% of the total volume was traded, representing the "fair value" zone of the market.
Value Area High (VAH) & Value Area Low (VAL): The upper and lower boundaries of the Value Area, acting as dynamic support and resistance levels.
Types
Session Volume Profile: Analyzes volume for a single trading session (daily or intraday).
Composite Volume Profile: Covers a longer period (weeks, months, or custom-defined ranges).
Fixed Range Volume Profile: Analyzes volume for a specific price range or custom-selected area.
Developing Volume Profile: Updates dynamically throughout the trading session to show real-time changes in volume distribution.
Interpretation
POC as a Magnet: Price tends to revisit the POC due to high liquidity and market agreement at that level.
Breakouts from Value Area: If price breaks above VAH with strong volume, it signals a bullish trend; if it breaks below VAL, it signals a bearish trend.
Reaction at LVN: Price moves quickly through LVN areas but may reverse or stall when approaching HVN.
Rejections at VAH/VAL: If price rejects VAH, it may return to POC or VAL, and vice versa.
09. Indicators 📦
Volume indicators help traders gauge market strength by analyzing the number of shares or contracts traded.
Volume (Default) – Displays the total volume traded per candle, often color-coded based on price movement.
Volume Profile (Fixed Range, Session, Visible Range) – Shows volume distribution across price levels to identify support and resistance zones.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) – A dynamic support/resistance line that calculates the average price based on volume.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) – Measures cumulative volume flow to detect price trends and confirm breakouts.
Money Flow Index (MFI) – A volume-weighted RSI-like oscillator that identifies overbought and oversold conditions.
Volume Delta – Measures the difference between buying (ask) and selling (bid) volume.
Cumulative Delta Volume – Tracks the cumulative sum of volume delta over time to assess buying/selling pressure.
Relative Volume (RVOL) – Compares current volume to historical averages to highlight unusual trading activity.
Key Takeaways 📋
Volume is a crucial market indicator that reflects trading activity and liquidity, often preceding price movements.
High volume confirms trends and breakouts, while low volume can signal weak or false moves.
Volume Profile identifies key support and resistance zones, with High Volume Nodes (HVNs) acting as strong barriers and Low Volume Nodes (LVNs) allowing fast price movement.
Relative Volume (RVOL) highlights unusual market activity, while Delta Volume and Cumulative Delta reveal buying and selling pressure.
VWAP serves as a dynamic support/resistance tool commonly used by institutional traders.
Is Bitcoin Now Set Up to Rally?Large Speculators are now net-short Bitcoin futures (red circle, bottom right) according to COT positioning data. As previously published, Bitcoin has never rallied when LG Specs were net-long, but that does not mean BTC is going to instantly start going up with the turn to net-short.
From an overall positioning standpoint, Bitcoin is neutral since non of the trader types are at a max position, so reward/risk from a CMR process type trade is not there, but it is interesting to see how Bitcoin now reacts to news (whether bullish or bearish) and see of market tone changes with positioning data changing. I think one week is not enough to confirm so this Friday will be telling to see if LG Specs continue to short BTC or flip back to net-long.
CME BTC Futures Weekly Plan analysis
In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 10, 2025, weekly trade plan for CME BTC futures . We highlighted three potential scenarios last week. Our main scenario 1 played out. It did not reach the high we expected in our plan, however, BTC futures consolidated further around the mCVPOC, i.e., our Anchored Volume Profile from November 10th, 2024.
We highlighted the following key levels:
Yearly Hi:110,920
mCVAH: 104,400
Dec 2024 mid-range: 101,570
Jan 2025 mid-range: 100,610
mCVPOC: 98,075
mCVAL: 93,730
Key Bull Support: 92,505 - 90,000
Scenario 1 stated Further chop and acceptance. We noted the following:
“In this scenario, we may see price action remain range bound. Traders look for clarity on how policy may affect market sentiment before further committing capital”.
Also, as acceptance (balance) builds, mCVPOC has also shifted. You can see that mcVPOC is currently sitting at 97,965 (when posting this recap). Market was choppy as expected, although it did not reach December 2024 or January 2025 mid-range. Markets chopped below mCVPOC, touching mCVAL.
This is a time where patience is required and it is better to sit on your hands rather than engaging with markets in choppy conditions.
Although we are wary of news and that it may impact prices. Our main portion of analysis and plan is founded upon Volume Profile, multiple time-frame analysis as mentioned in our recap from February 6, 2025.
This is just one of many ways to look at the markets. We provide these recaps on our thoughts on markets to help you understand and incorporate these into your own style of viewing and analyzing the markets.
Probabilistic thinking. Using Technical logic to get odds.Markets are simple if you think about it.
moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally.
"horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky.
steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals)
rule: break outs always must coincide with 200dma rallies.
Bonus.
High market, strong trend -- best odds for reversal .
50-50 resistance, with weak support --> trickster market. (trap)
strong trend but no flying 200dma --> trap.
50-50 resistance with strong trend, high market, but weak 200dma ---> good odds for reversal.
keeping it simple.
P.S. this method shows why odds favor BTC reversal . Or why 110/120k had to be peak point. for now.
