Baba coming out of the cloudIt seems baba is coming out of the cloud. huge buy signal if they beat earnings. I don't think there will be a retracement this time..Time to buy calls.
9988/N trade ideas
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move.
Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100.
If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings.
I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings.
But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
$BABA | Allocation & Watchlist | Market Exec & Buy Stops |Technical Confluences:
- Price action has been consolidating between a Wedge pattern
- Price action is at a Demand Zone of all-time lows
- Price is starting to slowly break above the 200MA
- A break above the resistance trendline (been a good support/resistance TL) would be a significant move.
Fundamental Confluences:
- Considerably cheap valuations
- Still one of the largest e-commerce players, don't see it dropping it off anytime soon
- China's economy has been weakening and we are seeing efforts by the China government to help boost back the domestic economy. Potential for revenue boost.
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Putting in my first tranche of NYSE:BABA allocation for my Long-Term portfolio.
Gonna be holding this share for years and will continue adding position with Buy Stop orders.
Remember, DYOR.
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Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated!
If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Huge discount on AlibabaAUGUST 2016:
Share Price: $79
Revenue: $5 Billion
Cash: $16 Billion
AUGUST 2024:
Share Price: $79
Revenue: $31 Billion
Cash: $83 Billion
target $151
Baba Batting SceneLevel of confidence for this simulation is below 31% but it could go up in case intriguing hits and inflections happen near the dots. Overall my points of interest are the potential numbered inflection points. Time stamp and or price level would suffice regardless of the deviations, but in order to consider any of these setups as potent or viable or to have a decent amount of probable mathematical advantage, we first need to see how we get there and how it looks when it lands in any of the potential setups.
Also, there should be some interest in the potential big blue zone of influence but as mentioned, I am more interested to see if Baba bats and hits the dots and sends it on the developed path or at least on one wave out of all of them.
BABA SHORTfailed to maintain the line after it dipped once ! the second dip it's over it's officially weak and we could short it
Anti Bat Bearish Harmonic Pattern on BABA🔍 Overview:
I've identified an Anti Bat bearish harmonic pattern on BABA stock, and it's looking promising for a short trade on the 3-hour chart! 📉
📉 Chart Analysis:
1️⃣ The Anti Bat pattern suggests a potential downward move, with resistance around the $78.13 level.
2️⃣ If we hit $78.13, a Shark bearish pattern also begins, providing additional confirmation for the bearish sentiment. 📈
🎯 Trade Setup:
Anti Bat Pattern:
Target 1: $77.91 💰
Target 2: $73.73 💸
SL: $81.55
Shark Pattern (if $78.13 is hit):
Target 1: $76.02
Target 2: $72.22
📝 Why I'm Interested:
The combination of the Anti Bat and potential Shark patterns strengthens the bearish outlook. 📊📉 These patterns often signal high-probability reversals, and with the confirmation of the Shark pattern, this trade setup becomes even more compelling.
📅 Timeframe: Watching this setup on a 3-hour chart, so keep an eye on shorter-term price movements for the best entries and exits. ⏳
🔔 Stay Updated: Be ready to adapt your strategy as the price action unfolds. Let's get it! 🤑💪🏻
#BABA #AntiBatPattern #SharkPattern #HarmonicPatterns #Trading #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradeTalkFarsi 📉🐻
BABA: Buy ideaBuy idea on BABA as you can see on the chart if only if we have the breakout with force the resistance line by a big green candle.
5/13/24 - $baba - small buyer into tmr's AM print5/13/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:BABA - on almost every metric this thing remains cheap. you and i both know this. that seems to be beside the issue and it's more a function of the $AMEX:KWEB-style flows here more than anything. realistically, there's a lot of optionality in the model too that can be communicated that skews more +ve than -ve. they have a bunch of businesses that can be spun/ or valued separately. i equally believe anyone that's recently been accumulating NYSE:BABA is (*not) going to monetize the whole stake on a beat and probably adds to it in a "miss" (whatever that even means at this pt given the valuation and low expectations). therefore the bias remains to the upside here in the print and i'd look to enter here sub $80 on a miss - but realistically i might take a small punt to the upside and look to capture the continued move higher should the nasdaq remain bid thru the close.
eyeballing the potential up/downside moves here of +10 vs. -10 they look quite balanced. and again i think the balance of chart strength + low expectations probably keep this thing skewing the expected value up... vs. down into print.
BABA Looks good above 80-81Excellent BUY opportunity in BABA. Consider entry above 80-81 with Stop Loss @56.95.
Position Size : 3% of portfolio.
BABA near golden cross patternNYSE:BABA
This pattern gives me more confidence to add some more on dips.
Main points:
- Above previous resistance
- Main support $77
- Golden cross pattern on that $77 line + 50 sma + 200 sma
head and shoulders on BABAEasy read on this pattern and I initiated my trade after seeing the bullish flag pattern. and momentum when the pattern broke the neckline.
BABAIt is an open secret that a lot of traders/ investors consider BABA as an exceptional long-term opportunity. They note that BABA is substantially undervalued.
This is my second attempt to buy and hold this stock. The first attempt was a break-even trade, this one looks promising - H1 inverse head and shoulders.
Lotto Ticket on BABAi wouldn't mind getting a ATM lotto ticket on this expiring in 80 days. IT is the money that i wouldn't mind losing fully. the pattern is there (although not strong). And the volume is showing weakening of sellers! 😶
AliBaba ~ $140After dropping 80% where all the bubbles deflate! Alibaba on the not so good news from China is moving in a correction upwards in the form of an ABZ zigzag. First available target is 140. Whether there will be a continuation of the move - we will consider after reaching the target
$BABA - Do you believe it can breakout?NYSE:BABA There is a chance that it could breakout and head to $78. Sure it can go down to $68. Risk/Reward looks attractive. 👀
BABA Approaching Buy Zone For Swing LongDecent risk/reward here for a swing long position on BABA at Buy Zone as indicated. Stop loss is essential.
BABA: Pullback on vwapOn BABA as you see on the chart we have a pullback on vwap indicator so it's mean that we would have a hight probability to have a downtrend.
#202427 - priceactiontds - weekly update - alibaba #4Good Day and I hope you are well. A quick one on #baba again
Alibaba
Quote from last post:
" The stock found it's bottom and points upwards. Many tails around the 68/70 area below and big bull bars now appearing. The monthly 20ema will most likely be hit soon, where I expect a pull-back to then break above to the 100$ level again. China is printing again and from a technical perspective the stock has seen the worst days IMO. Can see 120 over the next 6-12 months again. Where you put your stop? Probably 80 or you want to hold for longer term and scale in lower. "
comment: The stock did almost exactly what I said it would. Last trade was good for 5$ or 6%. Market also turned 2$ above the monthly 20ema. So what is next? The two legged correction I have drawn is from 2024-05-14 and currently is going a bit deeper than expected but still valid. Market has to stay above 67 to make a higher low. Which would be a great entry for longs, once it turns again. I have drawn the bear channel on the daily chart, because the bear channel needs to be broken before you think about longs on this one. Could happen next week or the week after. Selling below 70/75 is bad any way you put it. Market just made a strong move again and another will likely follow. Bears are in their third push down and could see a two legged correction soon again, if not a major trend reversal for 100.
current market cycle: trading range at the lows
key levels: 63 - 120
bull case: Bulls want to break above 18500 to retest the other bear trend lines above.
Bull Invalidation is below 67.
Bear Invalidation is above 77.
short term: Neutral until bear channel is broken and bullish above 76 for 85 or higher again.
medium-long term: 17000 over the next 3-6 Months and when we get there, I update again. —unchanged
current swing trade: No big move caught. Will look for follow through selling on Monday and would swing a position then.
Chart update: Adjusted bear wave series to match the current sideways movement.
BABA is super cheap nowhi traders,
I'm not going to lie here. I'm surprised that the price of BABA keeps going lower.
It's already a no-brainer for me now at 69 $ and I'm adding to my long-term hold position, but if it retest 60 $, it will be an even more screaming buy for me as it will retest the absolute bottom again.
BABA is a very profitable company with a strong fundamentals and not buying at these prices is a crime. DCAing into BABA stock is my strategy for the next weeks.
All fib levels that are shown on the chart may be acting as a resistance but my final long-term target is 256 $.
Tech Giants of China - when will they see their glorious days?We can see a similar pattern for Alibaba and Tencent shares in the daily chart. Both are in a consolidation stage and the resistance is hampering the price action to rally further.
I am watching closely this level and any breakup with a bullish signal could be a potential trend reversal to the bullish side.
Patience
