Amgen Nears a Death CrossMany stocks have hit new highs this month, but Amgen isn’t one of them.
The biotech may be showing signs of topping out. The main thing jumping off its chart now is the falling 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Current prices have dropped back to the 200-day SMA. If the trend continues, it could produce a “death cross.”
Next, why is AMGN’s 50-day SMA falling? The reason can be found on October 8 when a potential heart drug failed to reduce death in a phase 3 trial. Its partner, Cytokinetics , lost more than 40 percent of its value on the news.
Third, AMGN’s last peak occurred at almost exactly the same price around $241 where it ended 2019. It’s back in negative territory YTD and at risk of potentially bearish window dressing into December.
Fourth, stochastics have been overbought -- even as the stock made a lower high versus early October.
Finally, relative strength has been poor in big pharma. Most of the gains in health care lately has been in HMOs, hospitals and medical devices. For an example of the weakness, just look at Pfizer or Gilead Sciences. Even with Covid products, they haven’t been able to advance.
Investors should always be wary of stocks falling when the market’s rising because it can foreshadow broader distribution.
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