A favorite reversalShort is my answer unless it can maintain a stellar bullish upward move, with every indicator hot Pennant breakout, but numbers coming in hot 145 is a start.
ARM/N trade ideas
6/12/24 - $arm - avoid: worst R/R in semi's >$150, shorting soon6/12/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ARM - interesting move in the last few sessions by the world's most interesting pitch deck /sarc.
basically this one was the split without the split in terms of nominal price paid. there's a "unit bias" with having to pay >$1000 w/ NASDAQ:NVDA (not anymore) and the next best that just crushed tonight NASDAQ:AVGO (to go 10-1 as well sending it back to a reasonable price per share. while share splits don't add any intrinsic value, they certainly mean higher liquidity and more degens ape'ing on calls (more affordable thrills).
with that being said, NASDAQ:ARM is simply too expensive. there's no way to wrestle valuation in the >$150 area. EPS is not growing 50% a year. it's growing 20-30%? at best? you're going to pay 50x on 2027 earnings (TODAY!?). fascinating. when you're in the land of the blind, but with one eye open... i suppose you must check that eye.
the co's AI-initiatives are 1 yr in arrears. the only two buyable AI-chip stocks are NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:AVGO , period. there are some private co's, yes NASDAQ:ARM *is* doing things, NASDAQ:AMD too (which is far superior to NASDAQ:ARM valuation wise - and still i don't own it).
just be careful here so you know what you're buying. i would even struggle to own NASDAQ:ARM north of $100. $150 is comical and i think comes from the flows to chips, ATH's on risk, etc. etc.
also don't forget softbank's involvment. i'll be polite. lotta dog and pony with this owner. (anyone remember the unicorns presentation?? x.com)
i'll probably be looking to short this tmr after the NASDAQ:AVGO result pulls the whole space higher in the coming days into month end. probably using put's rolling them over etc. will update if/when/how i decide to do this.
but for now - if you own it - would you mind explaining why? or counterpoint the above. this one is an obvious (and i mean OBVIOUS) stay away you are way out of the risk/reward owning at this point >$150.
V
ARM has two LONG scenarios.ARM is rebounding from Nvidia's strong performance.
So far, it seems to be forming a cup without a handle. But it can form a handle at any time.
For the former, $164 could be the ideal buying point. But personally, I would like ARM to form a handle.
Because ARM's cup base is too deep (-48%)
Furthermore, as of last quarter's report, it is also concerning that funds have continued to sell ARM.
Of course, if the stock breaks out the buy point strongly with high volumes, there will be no problem.
Short ARM below major resistance areaARM is back up to the major resistance area under $122-126.
Stop $126
Target $99
Risk/Reward is 1 to 8
ARM eyes on $103.xx: Key resistance to determine trend directionThis is a follow up to my $90 entry call (click).
After a considerable retrace we have a bounce.
The bounce is at a significant and key resistance.
What happens here could determine the next trend.
Immediate resistance zone is $103.14 to $103.82
Break above should run to golden fib at $117.36
Rejection could drop to golden below at $73.57
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Arm Holdings, ARM - The Perfect SetupAs many of you know I am ultimately a conservative trader whose #1 priority is to Protect my Capital. As such I have come to watch for this exact Setup, a Perfect Setup, to take advantage of an emerging trend having just broken out. I am constantly looking for this and when I find it I have yet to lose. Other than what I've explained on the chart I also had a Bullish Keltner Channel + just 4 days earlier as well as a newly formed Bullish MA 9/21 Crossover. Ultimately I will stay in my position as long as the candles trend above the 7 day EMA. Once a candle fully closes below the 7, I will exit and hope I haven't over stayed my welcome. Of course I would also be looking for other confirmation signals for a continuing trend or that a reversal is at hand earlier and judge myself accordingly. I hope you can all take advantage of this as I have.
ARM's Impact on AI and the Technical Setup Business Outlook:
If you aren't familiar, ARM Holdings ( NASDAQ:ARM ) is not a chip manufacturer. They design processor architecture for the next generation of devices. This might sound like a marketing line, but it's literally their business. They specialize in energy-efficient chip design to enable increased processing capability, catering to a range of devices from servers to small gadgets like tablets and smartphones. Energy-efficient chips are essential for embedded AI processing requirements in smaller devices (about 45% of AMR's business).
As AI expands, a wave of device replacements is likely, and competition among device manufacturers should cause ARM's demand to grow exponentially. ARM designs the technology and licenses it to manufacturers, earning royalties on devices that use their architecture. This model allows ARM to scale efficiently without heavy manufacturing investments, ensuring a steady stream of revenue as their technology is adopted. They still collect royalties on products developed in the early 1990's!
Be on the lookout for ARM's next earnings report in August. They are estimated to report near the same time as AMD and SMCI. Price action between now and then will be sentiment-driven.
Technical Analysis
Here are a few charts to outline a possible continuation scenario.
From the main chart, look for a break above the Bollinger band as daily closes above or below are a strong sign of continuation. The KST indicator experienced a bullish crossover in early May, with the KST line closing above zero at the close of last week and the signal line likely to be above zero today. This indicates a sustained and favorable change in momentum. The Chaikin oscillator is overlayed with a Bollinger band. Although a more sustained positive move would be ideal, breaks above and below signal shift in the direction of the trend. Lastly, price has regained the 21-period volume weighted moving average.
ARM had a rapid and strong move after February earnings, leading to an extended 5th wave, followed by a deeper 3 wave correction that occurred near the expiration of their March 12 lockup period. It has quietly established momentum from the April low. The purple AVWAP from IPO was reclaimed in late April and then acted as support. The red from the high will likely be resistance in the first wave up. One blue AVWAP was added at the post IPO low and another at the top of wave 3 high. We'll see if these become areas of interest going forward. I drew a Fib time zone from wave 4 to wave 5, but I will likely redraw it as we build more history.
Taking a measured range from the start of this pattern and assuming that we see a test of the lower blue AVWAP would represent a 95% move.
Lastly, confluence zones with 2 Fib retraces. The first is drawn from the February high to the April low and the second from the momentum cross over in the composite index to the April low. The latter gives us a sense for nearer term targets as itis based on sentiment of market participants when we shifted to a secondary downtrend.
ARM 1D MA50 rejection and buy for $160.00Arm Holdings (ARM) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after recovering it following a full month of trading below it. As the price got outside its long-term Buy Zone (green), this pull-back might be the last opportunity to buy the stock before Resistance 1 is tested. Our Target is marginally below it at $160.00.
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ARM Bear Flag Break & RetestAn update to my previous idea on ARM. It has broken to the upside and is now retesting the flag. Looks good for longs, but if it doesn't hold there could be opportunity on the short side as well.
ARM Bear flagARM had a big gap down after earnings, but has managed to hold above the bottom end of the bear flag so far.
BEAR FLAG FORMATION. DOWNWARDS NOW 🩸We identified a bear flag formation.
Our retracement price targets are near the descending support lines.
Where to next? NASDAQ:ARM
ARM Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ARM Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $8.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Arm is the bottom in?This is my first thesis based on TA. The trendline held support on daily and MACD is starting to curl to the upside. On the first earnings this stock has made quite the move to upside ranging from $75 to $164. I am targeting $117 as long as earnings are in favor. On the other hand, when the stock made 52 week high market has anticipated that the corporate will dump their shares after the expiry and it did not happened. Currently institution holder are holding more then 90% shares which giving me additional confirmation that they will most likely beat the earnings.
ARM eyes on $117 or ideally $90 for major supports to buyARM took off after IPO, and is now retracing.
All plotted levels are from a single fib series.
The golden fibs should be the strongest ones.
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ARM entering into No Man's LandARM may fills the GAP, more pain incoming :(
Chart is self explanatory, there is a gap below and there is no possible support until higher 70s
Exploding soonPrice is moving inside a symmetrical triangle and will reach the end very soon
I suppose a strong move will occur today (or at least tomorrow)
Be carefull
This is the time to BUY $ARM , Wolfewave alertBullish wolfewave alert in NASDAQ:ARM , keep stop at 105-100, and ride till 140
Its "almost" confirmed H&S, lets return back to channelEverything that goes up, must come back.. even NASDAQ:NVDA & NASDAQ:ARM
ARM in particular looking for another 15-20% decline. They have been distributing for last few weeks, now is time to break it.
SELL under 125, target 90-100
ARM April 17, 2024: Sell Signal Below the MA-50On April 17, 2024, NASDAQ:ARM broke down the support AND its MA-50 which is a sell signal.
We can observe similar break-down pattern in $NASDAQ:ASML.
Interesting price action for ARMARM is maintaining its value even when the rest of the market is down. Wondering if the insiders aren't selling -- anticipating a big popup.
ARM about to pop one more time?ARM may be finishing up its 4th wave in an ABCDE correction.
Confirmation that the 5th wave has started would be received with a close of the candle above the descending trendline.
The 5th wave would potentially target the $200 level.
This idea will be invalidated should price break below $121.49.
ARM March 15, 24: A Symmetrical Triangle?On March 15, 24, I am looking to trade NASDAQ:ARM using this symmetrical triangle/bullish pennant pattern.
A move up piercing the upper trendline will present a buy signal, with volume confirmation on break out.
