BG - Bunge Limited (Daily chart, NYSE) - Long PositionBG - Bunge Limited (Daily chart, NYSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 3
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 75.80
Entry limit ~ 75.50 to 74.50 (Avg. - 75) on April 15, 2025
Target limit ~ 78 (+4%; +3 points)
Stop order limit ~ 74 (-1.33%; -1 point)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
BG/N trade ideas
Trade wars begin.The trade war with Colombia will have a ripple effect across several industries, particularly those heavily reliant on imports and exports. Here’s a breakdown of how this could impact sectors and stocks:
1. Coffee Companies (Starbucks, Green Mountain Coffee)
Impact: Coffee prices are likely to rise due to reduced imports from Colombia, one of the largest coffee producers in the world. This could affect the cost structure of companies like Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) and Keurig Dr Pepper, which owns Green Mountain Coffee.
Stock Impact:
Short-term: Likely negative, as higher input costs could squeeze margins. Expect some volatility in these stocks as investors react to news.
Long-term: If these companies raise prices to offset costs, it could hurt demand, especially for premium-priced products.
Opportunities:
Monitor Starbucks ( NASDAQ:SBUX ) and consider a put option or short-term bearish strategy if you expect higher costs to impact earnings in the near term.
If you’re bullish on their ability to navigate the crisis (e.g., through diversified sourcing), look for a dip-buying opportunity.
2. Floriculture Companies (1-800-Flowers, FLWS)
Impact: The U.S. sources a significant percentage of its flowers from Colombia. Disruptions could lead to price spikes, reduced inventory, and higher shipping costs from alternative markets (e.g., Ecuador, Mexico).
Stock Impact:
Short-term: Likely negative as supply chain costs rise and flower availability decreases.
Long-term: FLWS may pivot to alternative sources or raise prices, but this would take time.
Opportunities:
Watch FLWS closely for earnings revisions or news of sourcing diversification.
Short-term bearish plays like puts could capitalize on anticipated cost pressures.
3. U.S. Oil Companies
Impact: Stopping U.S. oil exports to Colombia could create slight downward pressure on domestic oil prices due to reduced overseas demand. However, this would be marginal since Colombia isn’t a major importer of U.S. oil.
Stock Impact:
Short-term: Likely neutral to slightly negative for U.S. oil companies like ExxonMobil ( NYSE:XOM ) and Chevron ( NYSE:CVX ).
Long-term: Unlikely to have a major impact unless it coincides with other geopolitical disruptions.
Opportunities:
Consider refiners (e.g., Valero NYSE:VLO ), as lower crude oil costs could improve refining margins.
If you believe U.S. domestic oil prices will dip, look at ETFs like USO for bearish plays.
4. General Market Sentiment
Trade wars often create uncertainty, which can lead to increased market volatility. Certain sectors, like consumer staples (e.g., packaged food companies), could act as safe havens, while sectors with direct exposure to Colombia may experience sell-offs.
5. Strategies Without Futures Access
Focus on stocks and ETFs that are indirectly impacted:
Agriculture ETFs: Consider broader agriculture plays, like DBA (Invesco Agriculture Fund), which includes coffee.
Bunge Limited (BG): Another agricultural commodity processor that might reflect broader trends in soft commodity markets.
Bearish on Specific Stocks:
Use put options or short strategies on stocks like NASDAQ:SBUX or NASDAQ:FLWS if you believe higher costs will erode profits.
Bullish on Domestic Producers: Companies that grow coffee domestically or are diversified into synthetic alternatives might benefit from supply chain shifts.
Final Thoughts
Colombia’s trade war fallout will have mixed effects depending on the sector. For companies heavily dependent on Colombian imports (e.g., coffee and flowers), there’s short-term risk, while for oil-related sectors, the impact is likely neutral to slightly bearish. Evaluate the timing carefully and focus on industries with clear, immediate exposure.
Food Additive Giants: Macro Fib SchematicsThese food additive companies manufacture agricultural ingrediants and additives that nakes its way to prodcust in grocery stores. Archer Daniels Midlands Co, Bunge Limited, International Flavors & Fragrances, Ingredion Inc, DuPont De Nemours, LyondellBasell Industries, Kerry Group, and Givauden are arguably the largest in this type of category.
These companies pump out things that humans consume and some argue that much of it is not healthy which is a different topic.
These Fibonacci Schematics are not great but they are good enough. Sloppy, but I would like to see someone do it better without excluding any important levels...
Bunge Limited ($BG) LongBunge Limited ( NYSE:BG ) is an American agribusiness and food company, incorporated in Bermuda, and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, United States. As well as being an international soybean exporter, it is also involved in food processing, grain trading, and fertilizer. The daily chart shows the stock exploded to the upside from $30 in 2020 to a high of $125 in 2022. The stock has been downtrending a bit, holding the $90 support level and holding above 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Someone thinks a move is due and selling the 10/20 $90P and buying 105/120C spreads for $2.10. Earnings 7/26/23 with a dividend in August.
Bunge - nice short oportunityBig picture indicates Bunge has completed wave b of larger degree wave 4 (started in 2008) and has printed wave (1) of circle C targeting 25-30 level. Expect to see a pb in (2) up to 110 zone. Be prepared for a strong move down in wave (3) over the next 10-12 months. See similar set-up in FCX.
Possible H&S on BGLooking at the monthly chart, a H&S formed in 2008 and hit its target. The current price is near that high again and forming a similar pattern. If price breaks and holds below neck line, down side target is in the 50s. I have taken out a call and put, even if short term price goes up I am rolling my put over in hopes the H&S plays out.
Not financial advice.
BG could head to $127.57 with a warningBG has been showing strong upside signs with moving averages crossing up.
We also see a potential Cup and Handle which strong upside to $127.57.
However, it's formed with a GAP... And as I've mentioned with many analyses, Gaps tend to close 70% of the time which could bring the price lower.
This makes this analysis a medium probability trade where I'd only risk 1.5% of my portfolio...
BG , Long , ( Re-entry attempt ) Second try here above the 10/21 ema , looked a lot nicer 1 hour ago when price action was near the top of daily range and volume is pretty low today , but I like the short period of time spent below the 10 ema and the looks of that hammer . Don't like the weak close, but , none the less, a close above 10 ema ...
Stop vs the lod
initial target - 116.37
BG, LONGBG , another strong uptrend with a wedge drop n pop entry setup . Food related theme .
Strong group and BG is among one of the leaders .
High institutional interest as they hold 88% of the float and transactions are positive.
Avg daily volume is currently 1.36M , good .
Strong technical with recent 52 Wk high's made .
*Has shown strength throughout the general weakness we have witnesses this year .
I notice the short float is a little high though ... 3.55% of float with a ratio of 3.56. This I find suspicious . But technicals are still technicals, price is price and volume doesn't lie , so I bought . Earnings may 4th .
Entry 109.88
Stop - 105.65
Initial PT - 115.43